Kuba Fast

This evening, some colleagues and I attended an insightful event at the London Stock Exchange: Leading in the Age of AI. A series of panels with an incredible and diverse cast: Andrew Rochester Group Head of AI, IAG Claire Calmejane – AI Board Member, Investor & Advisor, CAILEG Laia Collazos – Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Shweta Vyas – Chief Strategy Officer, RELX Emily Prince – Group Head of Analytics, LSEG Paul Donegan – Group Digital Innovation Director, Rentokil Initial A few key takeaways that stood out: 🔹 AI is not the focus—outcomes are. The conversation shouldn’t be about AI itself, but about what it enables 🔹 Boards follow a pattern: Year 1 is all about opportunity; once risks emerge, focus quickly shifts to governance - sometimes at the expense of momentum 🔹 Balance in governance is crucial. AI risk groups should approve policies, but AI practitioner groups must ensure they’re practical and workable (and approve too) 🔹 AI is pushing leadership ambition. Leaders are now challenging past goals, saying, "That’s not good enough—let’s be more ambitious." 🔹 Data matters. Even a suboptimal AI model with 100x more data can outperform the best AI with less 🔹 Prioritization should consider three factors: 1. P&L impact 2. Viability 3. Strategic relevance (If it doesn’t excite the board or unlock strategy, is it worth pursuing?) 🔹 An AI strategy should cover three pillars: 1. Big bets (transformational initiatives) 2. Incubators (a space to learn and experiment) 3. Organizational readiness (culture, skills, and governance) 🔹 Satya Nadella’s perspective from a recent call: AI’s returns will come “when customers do the hard work of changing their culture to fully leverage the technology.” 🔹 Reframe the question: Instead of “Can AI do this?” ask “What can we now do with AI?” 🔹 Mindset shift over ROI. The financial return will follow if the right mindset, culture and journey in place 🔹 Clarity is key. Have a crystal-clear, unanimous view of success, the problems to be solved, and the outcomes to achieve—while staying flexible on how to get there 🔹 Curiosity must be guided. Simply telling people to be curious is like sending them to a library and saying “read something.” Empower them with the right tools and environments to explore The event wrapped up with a compelling debate: Are leaders being candid enough about AI’s real impact on jobs and roles? Genuinely loved reflecting for a moment; that this exciting technology was uniting so many people from across all different industries. From Banking to Airlines, Coca Cola to Pest Control, and everything in between - the challenges organizations face with the latest progress with AI are seemingly the same (if not, ever so similar!) Thanks to Innosight and LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) for hosting such a great event, and to all the incredible speakers - thank you for being generous with your time and wisdom #leadingwithai #aistrategy

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Here's a recap of the J.P. Morgan EMEA Technology Investment Banking May 2025 newsletter. I’ll try to post these summaries monthly going forwards: -JPM key themes: We hosted our annual TMT conferences in London and Boston during the month. Key themes echoed by management teams included cautious optimism on the macro outlook, an improved M&A environment, and early but meaningful adoption of AI to drive product innovation and business efficiencies. Investors were very focused on increasing proof points of AI revenue. - Q1 Earnings: 80% of S&P 500 firms beat EPS expectations, and while several firms withdrew full-year guidance, many more maintained their guidance or revised up. Those that missed saw greater sell offs than in past quarters. - ECM: The NASDAQ is up 24% from April lows, indicating potential for the tech IPO pipeline despite wider-than-average IPO discounts. Successful IPO of Circle last month shows this potential starting to be fulfilled. - Tech sector insights: Semiconductors gained 10% (+1% YTD) driven by the market's positive adjustments following the earnings releases of key companies in the sector, including Infineon and Nordic Semiconductor - Private capital: European private capital markets saw 5 deals announced (>$100m) in May - M&A: The European Tech M&A market surged with 9 deals (>$100mm) announced in May, resulting in ~$35bn 2025 YTD deal value vs. ~15bn YTD in 2024 (+138%) - LevFin: May saw the highest monthly volume since Oct-24 and the fourth highest monthly volume on record for high yield primary issuance, with 24 deals priced for €15.0bn in total volumes

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Last week HM Treasury announced the government's intention to launch a pilot programme enabling the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in the issuance of government bonds. The announcement marks an important milestone towards the digitisation of the UK economy and reinforces the transformative impact #DLT has in the financial services markets. It is encouraging to see the government breaking new ground in pursuing its growth and competitiveness objectives. A few more thoughts in my most recent article published in the IFLR.

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Geopolitical uncertainty has fundamentally changed how corporates approach FX hedging. The old playbook no longer works. Our latest data reveals a clear shift in hedging behaviour. 60% of corporates in the UK and Europe plan to extend hedge lengths, while only 11% plan to reduce them. It's a direct response to sustained volatility driven by factors outside anyone's control. What's particularly interesting is the balancing act treasury teams are performing. While extending tenors for long-term stability, 33% are decreasing hedge ratios to maintain short-term flexibility—a sophisticated response to uncertain times. The numbers tell the story: → 81% of corporates globally are hedging their FX risk → Average hedge lengths holding steady at 5.3 months → 80% facing higher hedging costs, yet continuing to hedge → 75% experienced losses from unhedged risk in the past year This isn't panic—it's strategic adaptation. Despite rising costs (98% in Europe alone report increases), finance leaders recognise that the price of protection beats the cost of exposure. Just ask the 52% now considering hedging due to market conditions. The question facing every treasury team: are you hedging for last year's volatility or preparing for tomorrow's uncertainty? How has your organisation adapted its hedging strategy to current market conditions? #FXHedging #RiskManagement #MarketVolatility #TreasuryStrategy *Please refer to the Global FX Report 2025 on our Research Disclosure Page for more information.

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📢 WEEKLY EUROPE MACRO TRACKER 📢   This week it was my turn to take a look at the latest European data.   Attention shifted to the UK this week. At the halfway point of the fiscal year, cumulative UK public sector borrowing was GBP99.8bn, GBP11.5bn above September last year and GBP7.2bn higher than the OBR's expectation. However, revisions to past data mean the position looks better than it did in August.   The recent fall in the market-implied path for UK policy rates accelerated after the release of September UK inflation data, which was unchanged at 3.8% but had been expected to rise. These softer data have brought forward market expectations of BoE rate cuts. While a cut as soon as November seems unlikely to us, one or even two MPC members could join the duo already voting to reduce policy rates.   Alongside the recent global bond market rally, these developments have reversed much of the recent rise in UK borrowing costs. But the moves may have come too late to be included in the OBR’s November forecast.   Swipe through the slides below for a snapshot of the key charts from the report. Clients can read the full tracker from the following link: https://lnkd.in/dKCeSZS3 Questions? Just [email protected] #HSBCResearch #Research #Economics #Eurozone #UK #Europe

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I'm excited to share insights from yesterday's webinar, co-hosted with Derivatives Academy! 🎉 We delved into a range of FX option-based solutions, exploring their applications for corporates and pricing mechanisms. Here's what we covered: - Vanilla options (Puts and Calls) - Synthetic forwards - FX collars - Participating forwards - Capped loss forwards - Knock-in and Knock-out forwards - Accumulators - Extendible forwards - Target Accrual Redemption Forwards (#TARFs) - Pivot TARFs - Dual TARFs - Commodity-linked FX solutions (#scalers) I've attached the presentation slides for those interested in learning more. If you'd like the full PowerPoint file with animations and talking notes, feel free to message me with your email address. #FXOptions #CorporateFinance #RiskManagement #FinancialDerivatives What aspect of FX options are you most curious about? Let's discuss in the comments!

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