Is the Scottish government softening on oil and gas?

At first glance, the Scottish government declining to take a position on something isn't hugely exciting.

But the determination of ministers to stay out of the debate about the Rosebank oil field has been welcomed by business groups in Aberdeen.

Norwegian oil giant Equinor has submitted a fresh application for permission to develop the field off Shetland, which could yield 300 million barrels of oil.

Asked for a response by the Times newspaper, a Scottish government spokesman simply said these decisions are reserved to the UK government.

John Swinney later told BBC Scotland that this was in line with a longstanding position.

But the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce called it a "subtle, nuanced, but nonetheless important signal from the Scottish government".

It does feel a far cry from the days when Nicola Sturgeon was declaring a climate emergency and hosting a global summit aimed at ending reliance on fossil fuels.

But has there actually been a radical change in policy here?

It's actually quite hard to decipher whether something has changed, because the Scottish government currently doesn't have an energy strategy.

A draft was published in 2023, including talk of a "presumption against" new oil and gas developments, but when Swinney became leader the following year the finalised plan was postponed until after the general election.

That's more than a year ago now and there is still no hint of a definitive version coming forward, so we have to piece together the government's position somewhat from what ministers have told us in speeches and interviews.

So let's follow the trail of breadcrumbs back a little.

The licensing of offshore oil and gas fields, whether for exploration or extraction, is a matter reserved to the UK government.

Unlike with fracking or new nuclear developments, which Scottish ministers can block using devolved planning powers, there is no opportunity for Holyrood to intervene.

But that hasn't stopped ministers taking a view in the past.

When the UK government consulted on its own climate strategy in 2022, the net zero secretary at the time, Michael Matheson, made a written submission, external talking about the "fastest possible managed and just transition away from dependence on oil and gas".

He also talked about a presumption against new exploration, something which was then talked about in the draft energy strategy, external published in January 2023.

Specifically, the paper talked about ministers consulting on whether "in order to support the fastest possible and most effective just transition, there should be a presumption against new exploration for oil and gas".

It's worth noting that the exploration has already been done in the case of Rosebank, over 20 years ago in fact - what's being applied for is a licence to develop the field, which would not fall foul of a presumption against new exploration.

There are similarities here with the Labour UK government's position - that it opposes new exploration, but that North Sea production could continue for decades by exploiting already identified or established fields.

Scottish government officials have also previously pointed out that a presumption against something doesn't necessarily mean you never do it.

In the absence of a finalised energy strategy, Swinney has pointed to a "Green industrial strategy, external" published in September 2024 as making the government's position "crystal clear".

But there is scant reference to oil and gas in the paper, and nothing at all on licensing.

Away from the paper trail, has the political rhetoric changed over recent years?

As noted, Sturgeon made climate policy a high priority - declaring a climate emergency in 2019 and later bringing the Greens into a partnership government.

She notably took a stand against Cambo, another controversial development off Shetland, saying in 2021 that it "should not get the green light" because it "could not and should not pass any rigorous climate assessment".

But she was actually criticised by climate campaigners for not opposing Rosebank in similar terms - even when doorstepped by young activists at COP27 in Egypt.

Sturgeon would harden her position after leaving office, retweeting a message, external from Green MP Caroline Lucas describing consent for Rosebank as "the greatest act of environmental vandalism in my lifetime".

And her successor Humza Yousaf - for all that he dropped the government's climate targets and kicked the Greens out of office - also said consent for the field was the "wrong decision".

But Friends of the Earth Scotland maintained, external that the government had never formally opposed Rosebank.

And when John Swinney took over from Yousaf, he was keen to make the government far more business-friendly - bringing Kate Forbes back into the fold to front a charm offensive.

Within a month of becoming deputy first minister, she announced that the SNP was positioned "in between" Labour and the Conservatives on licensing, and that applications should be considered on a case-by-case basis.

Swinney himself declined to commit to a presumption against new developments, saying the issue was "complex".

To be clear, renewables are still very much the priority for the Scottish government.

That's been underlined repeatedly while Labour have been pushing for new nuclear developments - long term, Swinney remains committed to a transition away from oil and gas and towards the likes of wind, wave and hydrogen power.

When questioned on the BBC's Good Morning Scotland programme, the first minister stated that "any development taken forward must be compatible with our journey of climate action".

But once again he ducked the specific question of whether there is a presumption against new oil developments, saying that "there are a whole number of different developments we are still considering as we finalise the energy strategy".

It's worth remembering that one of Swinney's first projects was to distance the SNP from any particularly controversial topics.

His administration dropped any support for the gender reforms pursued by the Sturgeon regime.

A proposed ban on conversion therapy has been pushed down to Westminster for a UK-wide response - essentially making it someone else's problem.

And there are echoes of this in the position on Rosebank, where Swinney stressed that there is a "due process" underway.

Why take on the controversial story if it's ultimately someone else's decision?

There is also an election on the horizon and oil and gas is likely to be a key campaigning point in north east Scotland, where seats are chiefly contested between the SNP and the Conservatives.

The Tories are already banging the drum for what they happily refer to as a "drill, baby, drill" approach.

Leader Kemi Badenoch told an event at the Tory conference that passengers on a flight to Aberdeen had appealed for help for a city which is "dying", external.

The SNP seem keen to meet this head on.

Stephen Flynn, the party's Westminster leader who is seeking to move to Holyrood in an Aberdeen constituency, last week claimed workers were being pushed off a "cliff edge" by Sir Keir Starmer.

And Kate Forbes used her SNP conference speech to demand the Chancellor replaces the "destructive" windfall tax on oil and gas firms at the next budget.

Some at Holyrood are sceptical that we will see a finalised energy strategy this side of the election, because the lack of one allows the SNP to campaign as they please.

Again, this all has to be taken in the context of a government which remains firmly committed to a renewable energy future for Scotland.

But the position on oil and gas has always been pretty nuanced - and Swinney is unlikely to see this as the moment to make any radical moves.