Monthly Outlook

Unsettled weather will set in and is likely to continue across the UK over the next couple of weeks.

There will be wet and windy spells with brighter, chillier and showery interludes. By mid-November, however, there are signs that high pressure may show up and bring more settled conditions to many areas. Right now, there is no sign of any lasting significant cold.

A wet and windy period

The coming week will be very unsettled due to high pressure slipping away eastwards, opening the door to a sequence of depressions and frontal systems barging into the UK from the Atlantic. By the end of Sunday, all areas will have turned wet and breezy, and Monday will have some hefty showers or more widespread rain as low pressure settles across the country, with scattered thunderstorm risks.

A small but rather potent circulation could develop across England and Wales, with particularly strong and gusty winds towards southern coasts. Winds should ease somewhat through Tuesday, but it will stay changeable, with a mixture of scattered sharp showers and sunnier intervals. Temperatures will vary from day to day but should be above normal throughout much of the week.

A deepening low pressure system could cross the UK during Wednesday and Thursday, taking rain across all areas, some of it heavy. If this system deepens as rapidly as indicated, then it will have potential to also bring very strong winds or gales. On Friday, a cold front could pass quickly southwards as low pressure departs towards Scandinavia, while a high pressure ridge starts to build over the eastern Atlantic. Scattered blustery showers will ensue into the weekend, some turning wintry over higher elevations in northern areas as seasonably colder north to north-westerly winds follow the front.

Remaining changeable

The broad pattern should have high pressure over Greenland, with a broad low pressure trough downstream, dominating northern Europe and Scandinavia. As a result, the unsettled weather regime looks like persisting across the UK. Further low pressure circulations and associated fronts should move across from the Atlantic, bringing rounds of rain, occasionally heavy, accompanied by strong winds at times.

In between these systems there should be brighter spells but still studded by some sharp showers, and any drier periods should not last too long. Temperatures will be very variable, mostly near the seasonal average but with chillier intrusions in those brighter showery spells, when winds may temporarily come from a north to north-westerly direction. As such, some of the showers could be wintry over higher ground. However, there is no significant cold indicated.

Potentially turning more settled by mid-November

The following two weeks have low confidence, but there are some hints of a change in the pattern coming by mid-November. There may be another week or so of unsettled weather, with periods of rain and chances of occasionally strong winds. Temperatures are likely to remain very variable with some brief chillier interludes but won't stray far from the November average. Indeed, slightly milder conditions should be more prevalent.

By the middle of the month, there are signs that high pressure may try to build across western Europe, with the jet stream forced farther north, dragging Atlantic systems with it. This should result in a drier trend, but this will be dependent on how strongly this possible high pressure builds, and how far north the jet diverts. Chances are that the southern UK could become drier than the north.

We'll find out if there's any more confidence in the forecast to start November.