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Summary

  1. Satellite analysis of Mexico floods and Taliban-Pakistan clashespublished at 17:43 BST 15 October

    Thomas Copeland
    BBC Verify Live journalist

    BBC Verify has been analysing satellite imagery throughout the day, first examining flooding in Mexico and later strike damage at an oil plant in Russia-occupied Crimea.

    Images show the extent of the devastating floods in Mexico that have left at least 130 people dead or missing. We focused on two small villages, El Higo and Chapula, where homes have been submerged and residents evacuated.

    Elsewhere, fresh clashes have been seen at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border following a brief ceasefire. We verified dramatic footage showing a munition dropping onto an Afghan border city and assessed satellite pictures to examine the damage caused by a separate strike.

    From Gaza, we've verified footage showing a public execution carried out by Hamas fighters as the group attempts to regain control of the territory. Read our full story here.

    And if you've seen this quote from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming the US is no longer sharing intelligence with the UK, rest assured that it's not real.

    Do you have a question you would like answering or have you seen a viral claim that needs fact-checking? Send it to us by clicking here.

    We’ll be closing this live page soon and will be back tomorrow.

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  2. Are businesses more confident or less?published at 17:18 BST 15 October

    Nicholas Barrett
    BBC Verify researcher

    Earlier during Prime Minister’s Questions, Conservative MP Peter Bedford said “business confidence has fallen for five consecutive quarters”.

    Shortly after his remarks in the House of Commons, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy told the BBC’s Politics Live programme that “business confidence hit a seven-year high under our government”.

    It turns out they’re both right, based on figures from two separate surveys.

    There is no single definition of the concept, so surveys can have contradictory results based on how questions are framed and who is asked.

    Last week, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) announced that its interviews with 1,000 chartered accountants had indicated that business confidence had fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter (up to September this year), external.

    But in August, high street bank Lloyds updated its monthly survey of 1,200 UK companies across multiple industries and found that business confidence was 54%, its highest since 2015., external

    In Lloyds’ latest update, covering September, the measure had fallen to 42%., external

  3. Which taxes could the chancellor increase?published at 16:44 BST 15 October

    Nicholas Barrett
    BBC Verify researcher

    With six weeks to go until the Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has told the BBC she is looking at "further measures on tax".

    The 2024 Labour manifesto, external said: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

    That means Reeves is likely to have to look elsewhere to raise more money.

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank has suggested, external some possible options:

    • Doubling council tax on the most expensive properties, which it says could raise £4bn
    • Abolishing relief on inheritance tax for main homes, which it claims could raise £6bn
    • Extending the current freeze on income tax thresholds, which is due to end in 2028, which it says could raise "a significant amount".

    Meanwhile, former Labour PM Gordon Brown - who was also chancellor between 1997 and 2007 - is supporting calls from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think tank to increase gambling taxes to raise around £3.2bn extra per year.

  4. Debunking a US official's claim ICE arrest video is oldpublished at 16:29 BST 15 October

    Thomas Copeland
    BBC Verify Live journalist

    After a video showing the arrest of a young woman and two of her friends in Chicago went viral, a senior US immigration official wrongly claimed the video was old footage.

    “Imagine being so desperate to demonize law enforcement you post a video from a burglary arrest Chicago Police made over a year ago,” assistant secretary for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Tricia McLaughlin said in a social media post.

    McLaughlin, whose department oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, also claimed the video “isn’t even ICE”.

    But BBC Verify analysis suggests otherwise.

    We pinpointed the location of the arrest to an address in the Hoffman Estates suburb in Chicago on 10 October.

    The arresting officer in the video - a man in a blue sweatshirt - can be seen with what appears to be the same woman outside the Hoffman Estates Police Department - in other videos uploaded on the same date.

    We did reverse images searches on all of these videos for earlier versions of them online. These returned no results, indicating that they had not appeared on the internet before 10 October.

    Graphic showing two screen grabs of the same ICE agent at two locations in Chicago with the same arrested woman

    Hoffman Police confirmed to BBC Verify that ICE agents were present at their station that day and said the arresting officer was wearing a uniform for Enforcement and Removal Operations, a branch of ICE.

    We asked DHS why McLaughlin was claiming the video was from a year ago but we didn’t get a response. We found that 90 minutes before McLaughlin’s post, a right-wing influencer made a similar claim and linked to a news article about an arrest in a different part of Chicago.

    Local media in Chicago are now reporting the young woman and her friends have been released without charge.

  5. Fake Marco Rubio quote claims US no longer sharing intelligence with UKpublished at 16:15 BST 15 October

    Shayan Sardarizadeh
    BBC Verify senior journalist

    A false statement attributed to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming that Washington no longer shares intelligence with Westminster has been widely circulating online.

    Social media posts carrying the fake statement show a close up picture of Rubio and the quote: “We’ve stopped sharing a lot of intelligence with the UK Government because we no longer see them as reliable”.

    One post in particular has racked up hundreds of thousands of views on social media.

    BBC Verify has checked the public statements made by Rubio about the UK and has found no record of him claiming the US has stopped sharing information with the British government. The two countries have a close relationship and are both part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    The fabricated statement has been circulating online for at least two months but the most recent posts have gained traction on X, receiving high levels of engagement, and have been shared by some journalists and activists.

    BBC Verify has contacted the US State Department for comment.

    A version of the image that was shared, which has Rubio's face, the quote and his name and title
  6. Satellite images reveal damage in Afghanistan amid clashes with Pakistanpublished at 15:20 BST 15 October

    Shruti Menon and Erwan Rivault
    BBC Verify

    We’ve been analysing what online footage and satellite images can tell us about recent border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    One video we’ve verified from earlier this week appears to be drone footage of three buildings with blue slanted roofs being hit, followed by a large cloud of smoke.

    Social media users claim the strike was carried out by Pakistani forces between 11 and 12 October on a “Taliban camp” in the Afghan border city of Spin Boldak.

    BBC News colleagues reporting on the story have confirmed to us that the buildings seen being hit are part of a border security compound of Taliban forces.

    We have also checked that the footage was not older than 12 October and were able to locate the exact building using Google Maps to match the buildings.

    Satellite imagery from 14 October shows significant damage to that building, consistent with the strike in the video.

    Two satellite images side by side of a compound. One from 13 June highlights a blue-roofed building. The second from 14 Octobewr highlights that the building has been destroyed and we can see burn marks and rubble instead.
  7. Footage shows Afghan-Pakistan border clash resumes after brief ceasefirepublished at 14:53 BST 15 October

    Shruti Menon and Yi Ma
    BBC Verify

    Fighting has resumed along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after both Taliban and Pakistani officials confirmed new exchanges of fire. These clashes follow a brief ceasefire, with each side accusing the other of firing the first shot.

    We have verified two videos that appeared on social media of strikes today, both filmed from above.

    One video shows a munition falling and then an explosion near a military vehicle as a nearby bystander attempts to escape. The second video shows a direct hit on another military vehicle.

    A bomb just after being dropped, below is a very small military vehicleImage source, X

    We geolocated both videos to Spin Boldak, an Afghan border city, by matching building structures visible in the footage to satellite imagery on Google Earth. We found no earlier versions of these clips on social media by carrying out reverse image searches on some screen shots.

    Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid stated on X that 12 Afghan civilians have been killed in the latest round of fighting. A spokesperson for Pakistan’s armed forces said the Taliban had attacked four locations inside Pakistan, which were “effectively repulsed by Pakistani Forces”.

  8. Satellite pictures show flood has swept through Mexico villagepublished at 13:56 BST 15 October

    Thomas Copeland and Alex Murray
    BBC Verify

    We’re continuing to look at satellite images of Mexico, after two tropical storms hit the country in recent days and caused flooding and landslides that have left at least 64 people dead.

    One picture reveals the extent of the damage to the village of Chapula in Hidalgo state, much of which has reportedly has been swept away. This has forced some of its around 400 residents to be evacuated by helicopter, according to local media.

    By comparing an image from September to one on Monday, you can clearly see how the adjacent river has become significantly engorged sweeping through the village.

    Graphic of two satellite images showing a river in Mexico. In the first from 14 September the river is thin and a village is visible. In the second from 12 October it is much larger and the village is partially obscured by flood water and mud.

    Around 10,000 Mexican troops have been deployed in the affected areas, using rescue vehicles, heavy machinery, helicopters and military planes.

    But reports also indicate that rescue efforts have been hampered by more poor weather, as the affected areas experience what has been among the most severe rainy seasons in years.

  9. Trump threatens to 'violently' disarm Hamas as group executes 'collaborators' in Gazapublished at 13:16 BST 15 October

    Merlyn Thomas, Matt Murphy, Benedict Garman and Shayan Sardarizadeh
    BBC Verify

    US President Donald Trump has threatened to "violently" disarm Hamas as the group attempts to reassert control over the Gaza Strip.

    His comments came as footage circulated online showing a public execution and other displays of force by Hamas fighters who have been targeting gangs accused of collaborating with Israeli forces since the US-brokered ceasefire began last week.

    A clip that emerged on Monday afternoon showed Hamas fighters, some of whom were wearing body armour and Hamas headbands, executing a group of eight men. BBC Verify geolocated the footage to a junction in the central Zeitoun neighbourhood in Gaza City.

    The fighters could be seen lining the men up in front of a large crowd, which appeared to include at least one young child, and forcing the men to their knees. Members of the crowd could be heard shouting "collaborator" or "agent".

    The assembled fighters then opened fire on the bound men, who fell to the ground, before firing into the air and shouting "long live the al-Qassam Brigades", referencing Hamas' military wing.

    The execution is just one of a number of videos BBC Verify has authenticated, showing that Hamas has started to reassert itself across the Gaza Strip and targeted rival armed groups.

    You can read our full story here.

    Graphic with a map of the location of the execution site in Gaza city and a screenshot of the video before the execution takes place. Eight men with rifles are pointing them at Eight men on their knees in front of them. A hand can be seen in the foreground holding a phone filming.
  10. How many hostages have been returned and how many are still held by Hamas?published at 12:40 BST 15 October

    Emma Pengelly, Jamie Ryan and Alex Murray
    BBC Verify

    In "Hostages Square" in Tel Aviv, Israel, a child gestures near a heart-shaped balloon arrangement next to a banner showing people held hostage by Hamas in Gaza.Image source, Reuters

    Hamas released all 20 living hostages to Israel on Monday as part of the ceasefire deal in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

    Israel has since received the bodies of seven deceased hostages, including the remains of Tamir Nimrodi and Bipin Joshi, whose conditions had previously been uncertain.

    But an eighth body released by Hamas does not match any of the hostages, Israel's military said, following examinations at the National Institute of Forensic Medicine. The remains of a further 21 deceased hostages are yet to be returned.

    This is not the first time Hamas has returned a body from Gaza claiming to be the remains of a hostage. In February, Israel said a body claimed to be that of Shiri Bibas instead belonged to an unidentified woman. Bibas' body was returned the next day and her remains identified by Israel's forensic officials.

    Hamas abducted 251 people on 7 October 2023. The group already held four other hostages in Gaza, two of whom were taken in 2014 and two in 2015, bringing the total held to 255.

    Over the last two years 148 hostages have been released as part of previous ceasefire deals or separate releases. Eight of those hostages were dead when they were returned to Israel.

    Another eight hostages were rescued alive as part of earlier Israeli operations in Gaza, in which the bodies of 51 hostages were also recovered.

  11. Satellite images reveals massive floods in Mexicopublished at 12:14 BST 15 October

    Thomas Copeland and Alex Murray
    BBC Verify

    We’ve been been reviewing the latest satellite pictures taken of heavy flooding after days of torrential rain caused devastation across Mexico.

    At least 64 people are confirmed as dead and a further 65 are still missing, according to the Mexican government.

    The worst hit areas are on the Gulf of Mexico coast and central states where landslides and flood waters have swept away homes, roads and cars.

    This side-by-side comparison shows the river between the states of San Luis Potosi and Veracruz.

    A side-by-side comparison of satellite imagery take over  San Luis Potosi and Veracruz states before and after the flooding

    Floodwater has also engorged the Moctezuma River, bursting its banks and submerging surrounding areas with water and mud.

    In the picture taken last month, you can clear see the small village of El Higo where the Moctezuma and Tempoal Rivers meet.

    But in the latest imagery, the village appears to be submerged by mud and floodwater. El Higo is one of more than 150 communities hit by the floods.

  12. Evidence of damage at Crimean fuel depot following strikepublished at 11:19 BST 15 October

    Paul Brown and Sherie Ryder
    BBC Verify

    A satellite image of the oil depot, there is a huge plume of black smoke obscuring a lot of itImage source, Planet Labs PBC

    We’ve been examining satellite images taken yesterday of the Feodosia oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, which shows some damage after a recent drone strike. A huge plume of smoke is still clearly visible, indicating it was burning at the time the image was taken.

    Earlier this week, Crimea’s Moscow-installed governor acknowledged on his Telegram account that a fire broke out at the facility following a Ukrainian drone attack. We were unable to check for damage straight after the strike because clouds were blocking the view.

    Ukraine's military confirmed today it targeted the major depot overnight on 13 October and that a large-scale fire was ongoing.

    As the fires have continued to burn, it’s made visibility overhead difficult until now. Comparing to an older image from Google Maps, we can see that several oil tanks at the facility have been completely destroyed.

    It’s not the first time the depot has been attacked, including fires and reported strikes both last week and in October last year.

  13. Analysing satellite pictures of Mexico floods and a burning oil depotpublished at 11:12 BST 15 October

    Adam Durbin
    BBC Verify Live editor

    Good morning from BBC Verify Live.

    This morning we’re looking at satellite imagery showing devastating flooding in Mexico, where the government says at least 64 people have died and another 65 are missing. Dozens of communities are thought to be cut off by landslides and floodwater following days of torrential rain last week. The team will be looking for social media footage to examine the extent of the damage.

    We’re also analysing the latest satellite imagery over a major oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea that shows huge plumes of black smoke above the facility two days after it was hit. Ukraine has confirmed it was responsible for the strike in Feodosia, which was still burning yesterday.

    And shortly we’ll be bringing you an update on what we know about the hostages in Gaza, after Israel’s military said that the remains of three bodies released by Hamas have been identified and that one does not match any of the known hostages.