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  • 3 months ago
AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 1 to discuss the tropics.
Transcript
00:00We're getting closer and closer to the heart of the hurricane season, which begins mid to late August through September.
00:07We're not there yet, but we're getting closer and closer.
00:11We'll take you to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, because we know it's always the time we're looking out over those waters.
00:17It's one of the reasons we love to be here, but also one of the reasons why it's a little risky at times.
00:22It really is, and this is why Bernie doesn't go on vacation after August 15th.
00:26Now, for a couple of reasons, we're not allowed to because it's hurricane season, but I don't typically get near the water after August 15th.
00:33July 15th through August 15th is when Bernie goes on vacation.
00:38I love talking about myself in the third person.
00:40I also like bringing in my good friend and our hurricane lead forecaster, Alex DaSilva.
00:45And Alex, a brand new month.
00:47But when you take a look at the breeding grounds for August, similar to what we see in July, except in the tropical Atlantic, the area where you see development kind of does expand a little bit.
01:03Yeah, August is interesting.
01:04It's almost a tale of two months.
01:06Early in the month, we still are really looking close to home in the Gulf or off the southeast coast.
01:10But as you really get into that middle to end part of the month, that's really when we open the door more for those tropical waves that are coming across the Atlantic.
01:19So that's really where we start to open that door much further to the east.
01:23Unlike July, early July, August, you get less and less dips in the jet stream coming close to getting down in the southeast United States.
01:32But we are going to see one.
01:33It's on its way southward.
01:35That's why we're getting that refreshing air mass coming in to the Midwest and northeast.
01:40So this weekend and early next week, this is what it looks like.
01:44I have the jet stream drawn on here.
01:46I don't think it's deep enough for the Gulf.
01:49But you know what?
01:50It does stall a boundary off the southeast coast of the U.S.
01:53Yeah, we're essentially going to get a stalled front that's going to develop off the southeast coast.
01:57And it's going to bring a lot of rain and maybe even some rough surf and maybe even some gusty winds right at the immediate shoreline.
02:03But then we have to watch to see if something can develop along that frontal boundary.
02:08The timing of that would be August 2nd to the 5th.
02:11So that's what we have to watch out for.
02:13Nevertheless, it looks like it's going to be moving away from the United States.
02:17The Atlantic is still what I call hostile for development, right, Alex?
02:21You still have a lot of dry air and pockets of wind shear.
02:25But you can see a tropical wave.
02:26We've been tracking that since it came off Africa.
02:29Right now, that's north and the east of the islands.
02:31Yeah, it's really struggling right now coming across there.
02:34You can see a little bit of convection along with it.
02:37But it's kind of surrounded by all of that yellow and orange color there, indicating a lot of that dusty, dry air.
02:43Now, as we go throughout the month of August, that will decrease a little bit.
02:47But there's still a lot out there right now.
02:49Well, it's unlikely that this system is not going to develop that wave over the next couple of days.
02:54You know, we've been talking about this all week.
02:58This time of the year, you track things until they dissipate or move over to land.
03:04Yeah, we'll have to watch it.
03:05It's going to move north of the Lesser Antilles and towards the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
03:10We'll track it as it moves up through there.
03:12But I just don't think it's going to be really a favorable environment.
03:15It gets a little bit more favorable for development.
03:17But there's still going to be some dry air that I think it's going to be really hard for this to develop.
03:22But this time of the year, the waters are so warm, we still need to at least keep an eye on it.
03:28You know, everybody, I think, is used to the terms El Nino and La Nina.
03:33But there's been some recent research about the Atlantic and water temperature anomalies.
03:41Yeah, we call this the Atlantic-Nino or Nino region.
03:44Now, this is the boxed area that we're looking at here.
03:46So you're right along the equator, just off the west coast of Africa.
03:50And you can look at the water temperatures in this box, and they're below average right now.
03:53A lot of blue in this box.
03:55So right now, we are in an Atlantic-Nino as we speak right now.
03:59And if we take a look at what that would mean for the tropical Atlantic,
04:03well, usually you have a little bit more wind shear across the Atlantic.
04:06And that jet stream that really brings those tropical waves across the Atlantic from Africa
04:11is usually in a more weakened phase.
04:13And so the tropical waves that are emerging from Africa are usually a little bit weaker
04:18and usually have a little bit of a harder time getting going.
04:22So typically, we don't see a lot of those big-time hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic
04:26when we have those cooler waters down near Africa.
04:29If those waters warm, however, then the switch flips,
04:33and then that's more favorable for those more long-track, big-time hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic.
04:39AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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