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Predicting the distribution of European Hop Hornbeam: application of MaxEnt algorithm and climatic suitability models

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Abstract

Ostrya carpinifolia Scop. (European Hop Hornbeam) is a native tree in Europe as a species of the Betulaceae family. European Hop Hornbeam has a significant value for the European flora, and assessing the effects of climate change on habitats of species is essential for its sustainability. With this point of view, the main aim of the research was to predict the present and future potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam across Europe. ‘‘IPSL-CM6A-LR’’ climate change model, ninety-six occurrence data, and seven bioclimatic variables were used to predict potential distribution areas with MaxEnt 3.4.1 program. This study applied a change analysis by comparing the present predicted potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam with the future predicted potential distribution under the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate change scenarios. Study results indicated that the sum of suitable and highly suitable areas of European Hop Hornbeam is calculated to be 1,136,706 km2 for the current potential distribution. On the contrary, 2,107,187 km2 of highly suitable and suitable areas will be diminished in the worst case by 2100. The most affected bioclimatic variable is BIO 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), considering the prediction of the species distribution. These findings indicated that the natural ecosystems of the Mediterranean region will shift to northern areas. This study represented a reference for creating a strategy for the protection and conservation of the species in the future.

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Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Architecture, Department of Landscape Architecture, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey

    Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan

  2. Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium

    Hossein Azadi

  3. Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Hossein Azadi

  4. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

    Hossein Azadi

  5. Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey

    Özgür Kamer Aksoy

  6. Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Shahla Choobchian

  7. Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Ministry of Agricultural-Jahad, Tehran, Iran

    Saeedeh Nazari Nooghabi

  8. Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babeş-Bolyai University, 400084, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

    Horatiu Ioan Stefanie

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  1. Ömer K. Örücü
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Contributions

OKO and HA performed the study and developed the main text. ESA contributed to the first draft manuscript and enriched it up to the final version. ÖKA enriched it up to the final version, reviewed and edited the final version of the manuscript. ShCh, SNN and HIS reviewed, enriched and edited the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Hossein Azadi or E. Seda Arslan.

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Communicated by Christian Ammer.

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Örücü, Ö.K., Azadi, H., Arslan, E.S. et al. Predicting the distribution of European Hop Hornbeam: application of MaxEnt algorithm and climatic suitability models. Eur J Forest Res 142, 579–591 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-023-01543-2

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