Krzysztof Lubkiewicz

Cerberus Capital Management expands Polish banking presence with acquisition of Citi’s retail arm. The deal marks a strategic expansion for Cerberus in Poland, following its 2024 entry into the market through the acquisition of Getin Noble Bank S.A. Oddział’s restructured assets. VeloBank S.A. has since grown its asset base to over PLN50bn and reported a profit, benefitting from a high-interest-rate environment and strong market dynamics. Citi’s Head of International Ernesto Torres Cantú said, “This transaction enables us to deploy additional resources to our institutionally focused businesses, so we can continue to connect corporations in Poland to our global network.” Read more: https://lnkd.in/dp5y-NXj #PEInsights #privateequity #sale #banking

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🔎 In this edition of CEE Macro Outlook we update 2025 and look more under the hood of 2026 growth prospects 🔎 Lets start with good news. In Czechia, the first half of the year was strong. We revise 2025 to the upside, to 2.3% in 2025. Poland is on track to be the fastest-growing economy in the region (3.4% this year and above 3% in 2026). Croatia's performance is strong as well. In other CEE countreis, the 2Q25 GDP data brought limited optimism for the growth outlook in most of the CEE countries and further downward growth revisions follow for 2025. The Hungarian economy is likely to stagnate mostly this year (growth close to 0.5%). Revisions to the downside took place in Serbia and Slovakia. In Slovakia, we expect growth below 1% in 2025. In Serbia, the first half of the year was rather disappointing, with growth dynamics “only” around 2%. We therefore adjust our expectations for Serbia and expect 2025 growth below 3%. In Romania, we stick to our 1.3% growth forecast. Looking more under the hood of 2026 growth prospects with Juraj Kotian and Jakub Čery: we finally have more clarity regarding tariffs - a uniform rate of 15% with comprehensive accompanying measures. It seems that most of the damage has already happened and the direct negative impact in 2026 is going to be quite contained. Less uncertainty, as evidenced by the decline of the Trade Uncertainty Index, should support economic activity. Further, the time stamp on the utilization of RRF funds (implementation of the reforms and investments until the end of 2026) should provide another boost. We expect higher average growth next year in the region. Full report available here: https://lnkd.in/eNYxAkfy #CEEInsights #GDP #2026

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TBC Capital macro update on Georgia: Behind the GEL Strengthening. First of all, we note that, as discussed in our previous macro update, based on the main sources of net FX inflows, we are not betting on even somewhat large GEL swings in the near term; In fact, unlike most market participants, the recent slight GEL appreciation came as no surprise; Once again, to illustrate the relative importance of FX flows, we highlight the major sources. Which of these flows are most impacted? Tourism inflows, including the import component of up to 45%; demand for durables, which are almost entirely imported in Georgia; and investments; While looking at the latest data, including February, the impact appears to be growth-negative, especially on imports, but not GEL-negative; Furthermore, as of early February, we observe some recovery in tourism revenues, while the demand on durables has remained subdued; Not to forget the so-called good time buffer, estimated at around or more than a billion USD; In this regard, lately we observe no significant further deposit conversions, while, on the credit side, FX loans have relatively accelerated, which is GEL-positive; Last but not least, in the context of the GEL/EUR/USD strategy, considering heightened uncertainty, we reiterate our recommendation for diversification and for staying medium-to-long run indicators-oriented, so as to avoid short-term overreaction, which often, if not always, has led to significant losses. https://lnkd.in/ddygHFnH

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I eventually did it. I made an analysis of the non-bank finance sector in my home country, Czechia. The Czech consumer lending landscape is evolving fast, from leaders like Home Credit to digital-first disruptors like Twisto or RERUM FINANCE S.R.O. Banks dominate in volume, but licensed NBFIs and BNPL fintechs rapidly scale, bridging the gap in underserved and digitally-savvy segments. The Czech market offers a unique blend of European stability and fintech-led innovation. Private credit investors can tap into high-yield, tech-enabled lending via receivables, embedded finance, or direct NBFI funding. Read the full deep-dive by Kilde: https://lnkd.in/gaSzWv4t #PrivateCredit #Fintech #BNPL #NBFI #CzechRepublic #ConsumerLending #DigitalFinance #EmbeddedFinance #Kilde

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