Model Thinking

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

I write about cutting edge research in economics.

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.

New and underrated ideas to improve the world. Visit our website: worksinprogress.co

Civilization. AI. Book reviews. Startups. Liberty. Effective altruism. Progress studies. Radical futures.

not a large language model

A newsletter by Sam Bowman

We identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you by parsing millions of news pieces and discussing them with our elite forecasters.