I was chatting with a former Treasury person earlier this year, when things started happening really fast, and they referenced this phrase Overtaken By Events. Someone will close an email-thread loop when the subject has been rendered irrelevant by writing just: OBE. It’s apparently such standard government-speak it’s listed in their internal knowyourmeme.
Events have been especially overtaking lately, haven’t they. Professionally, the pipeline of episodes I’ve been working on has been interrupted by news, for months. We have created a great many Planet Money episodes about Fed Governors and central bank independence, and what happens when governments cook the books. (I had basically nothing to do with it but I REALLY liked the one about Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers that came out last week). They’re good shows and I’ve been very happy to make them, but it’s caused what they call in the publishing world “reflow:” I have had to re-typeset all my future pages, all the episodes I was about to make. People I interviewed months ago are emailing and calling saying “didn’t you say August?” Yes, I did. I need to clone myself.
Here, I will discuss three happy events which overtook in a different way: instead of arising unexpectedly from the mist of chaos, these were premeditated, constructed with intention, and yet for one reason or another they each surprised me.
First: I published a Treasury market opus at Planet Money. It’s called: How the government got hedge funded.
(We generally don’t break out credit for the individual pieces of our work, but for that headline, I must: that is the work of Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi, who has the best brain of anyone in the game for headlines that are funny, incisive, and informative. I used to be good at a pithy headline but being on the field with Alexi, it’s like why bother. I just go home.)
In this episode, we follow the life of a Treasury bond, from its birthplace at the US Treasury, at auction, to a primary dealer, and finally to a hedge fund doing “the basis trade.” (The joke is that I should have continued the journey all the way to the Federal Reserve, after it has to bail out the hedge funds. the circle of life.)
You know I hate to brag but. When I first went looking for a hedge fund person to tell me about doing the basis trade, I was laughed out of town; they said it was impossible. They said no one would ever tell me. I called all the big ones and some smaller ones and also some other shops that were like “why are you calling us lol” and I told them very directly that I was desperate. Then — as loyal readers of Off the Run know — we met Phil Prince, at the Vanderbilt Law Treasury market stability party, and he was comfortable sharing his notes from that panel appearance, which you read. That he was comfortable with THAT to me suggested that he MIGHT be comfortable speaking on the record. So I asked. And he was. What a Prince. As you can hear in the episode, everything is so pleasantly matter-of-fact with Phil. We talked for over two hours, and now the world (/ the listeners of Planet Money) know more about the structure of the market for U.S. government debt. My work is done.
Except: as those loyal OtR readers may suspect, I’ve been working on the idea behind that show since 2023 when I got a persistent case of Treasury market anxiety, which also yielded the Harper’s piece. (The initial idea for this episode was a Dude Where’s My Treasury, because I feel like we aren’t talking about rehypothecation enough — just ask Manmohan Singh, who has tolerated so many emails from me. But, classic Alexi, he’d already / just used that title-format. And at the time people were less interested in the topic in general than they are now, grimacing emoji.) When you work on something for a long time, it’s confusing when it actually goes live. This is one such case. Long after this was published, I kept dropping new links into the episode’s dormant slack channel. No one replied. I couldn’t accept that it was over.
Surprising Event 2 is another happy yield from the Vandy Law conference: Mitu Gulati of UVA Law attended, and he invited me to one of his classes in September. I had the honor of moderating a conversation with Lee Buchheit, who has helped restructure approximately half the world. UVA Law has a write-up about the class here: how to avert a national debt crisis.
In the class, experts explored what the fictional president could do to safeguard the nation’s credit rating if the United States couldn’t borrow new money to pay off old debt and decided to stop repaying the principal on debt held by foreign investors.
There were ten options of what the President could hypothetically do to avoid formally defaulting. We the fictional economic advisors were supposed to pick the best one. Each option derived from historical precedent, which meant we could dig in, with Lee, the merits vs costs in each instance in the abstract and then what went unexpectedly wrong when someone tried it in real life.
In the UVA Law writeup, Mitu says the U.S. won’t default because we “have ways to stave [it] off” but that if we actually exercise those options, “we’re never going to be able to borrow in the way in which we have been.” To me this is the most interesting kind of power: it only exists if you don’t use it.
This was a fictional exercise, and honestly I have not-enough experience in fiction; if I were to host this again I would lean way more into the fun of it. Journalism doesn’t really lend itself to hypotheticals, speculation, projections. But — and this was initially confusing for me — it can be worth doing. The future arrives in one form or another, and it’s useful to think about what those forms could be.
Mitu also invited me to his class about our mutual favorite topic, JSCrewed, but I was OBE (by Episodes) and had to miss it. Next year!!!
Event 3: our THIRD installment of Author RVA, an author conversation group the great Jessie Gaynor and I started here. I got to host literary hero and friend of the newsletter Gary Shteyngart, whomst I would argue is a living literary celebrity. (Happy to build out this hypothesis if useful.)
An edited (lightly condensed) version of our chat just ran on Full Disclosure with Roben Farzad (thank you, Roben!!).
This event surprised me because we booked it months ago and I was sure October would never arrive and then all of a sudden Gary was about to fly in. The future arrives! Luckily I’d read Vera, or Faith in July, before time stepped on the gas, and I had so many genuine questions for Gary that prep was a breeze. I barely needed to prepare questions anyway because Gary is such a pro I could have said “press play” and he would have launched into an eloquent and edifying meditation. He lands all his own jokes.


Here’s a Q&A we did with Tim Abbonelo at Style Weekly before the event.
And here we are at the Beekman earlier this year with our dear Neil Chriss. Gary is in a handmade suit, as you would expect.
Gary also published a delightful newsletter in which he revisits the places he visited in Lake Success, his 2018 novel about a hedge funder named Barry on a sort of walkabout. Barry stops in Baltimore, Richmond, Atlanta, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and El Paso. Richmond and El Paso were Gary’s favorites, congratulations to us!!
In Gary’s newsletter he shares a picture of the now-exterior of my then-house; here is the opposite side of that view, before we put much furniture in the house but after we added our dog (rip) and the menacing portrait of my ancestor.
Gary also references Saison, a now-closed restaurant around the corner where (as I mentioned in our chat) I once got a fried chicken sandwich so farm-to-table it had a feather in it. See:
Gary does not reference this but I was looking at geotagged pictures from the era so here’s an extreme closeup of a little cartoon painting I did of when No Doubt performed at Plan 9 Records (which still exists!!! by the grace of god amirite), for a Jack Antonoff project that I swear is real. I’ll tell you about it one day.
In closing: I am glad to have been trampled by events that I like; I am embracing the peace that comes with OBE.





























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