Week 13 was a 3–3 week, so we dropped a little juice. Frustrating, because I genuinely liked the card. Daniel Jones and Rico Dowdle got a little sweaty, but both unders cashed, and Aaron Jones finished comfortably under as expected.

On the misses: Josh Jacobs broke a long run to push his over, but he also played more than anticipated in his first game back from injury. Brian Thomas returned to a 75% snap share but wasn’t prioritized the way I hoped — just three targets all game. And coming out of the bye, RJ Harvey handled less work than he had the week prior. Denver involved Jaleel McLaughlin, but Harvey also didn’t show much explosiveness, which is disappointing from a rookie with his athletic profile and college production.

The only bet I truly regretted was the Brian Thomas play. I expected the Jaguars to treat him as one of their most talented long-term offensive pieces. Assuming rational coaching is always difficult, as they leaned more on Jakobi Meyers. Regression toward Thomas should come eventually, but timing it is difficult.

One positive: Harvey’s rushing line closed at 57.5 — nearly 10 yards higher than where we took it. Anytime you’re getting that kind of closing line value (CLV), you’re on the right track, even if the result doesn’t go your way.

As always, make sure you’re in the Discord to get the plays the moment I take them. Lines move quickly, and CLV can be a big part of our edge.

Let’s make Week 14 a great one.

Week 14 Player Props