Thanks to visit codestin.com
Credit goes to whirligigbear.substack.com
Whirligig Bear
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
Mostly Beta
What was the R^2 of my own effort on my career?
14 hrs ago
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
31
Codestin Search App
5
Codestin Search App
2
Latest
Top
Discussions
Prediction Markets: Truth Engine or Casino? A Scoring Framework
Plus a rant about gambling and a few hot takes
Dec 9, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
17
Codestin Search App
3
Codestin Search App
4
ChatGPT + $20k + Grammys
The opposite of adverse selection
Nov 18, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
19
Codestin Search App
6
Codestin Search App
So-Called "Bonds" in Prediction Markets
Rare events teach slowly
Nov 5, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
51
Codestin Search App
10
Codestin Search App
6
from the Kalshinomics Lab: conditional election probabilities
And when the arbitrage dream may become a nightmare
Oct 28, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
14
Codestin Search App
Codestin Search App
1
A quick survey of prediction market fees
not so simple
Oct 23, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
7
Codestin Search App
Codestin Search App
1
Trust the Mechanism
Process over results
Oct 22, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
9
Codestin Search App
Codestin Search App
Are You Good or Just Up?
It's noisier than you think
Oct 16, 2025
•
Andrew Courtney
Codestin Search App
17
Codestin Search App
2
Codestin Search App
2
See all
Whirligig Bear
My personal Substack
Subscribe
Recommendations
View all 7
Risk of Ruin Premium Newsletter
John Reeder
50¢ Dollars
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
One Useful Thing
Ethan Mollick
moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
Kris Abdelmessih
Uncharted Territories
Tomas Pueyo
Whirligig Bear
Subscribe
About
Archive
Recommendations
Sitemap
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts