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The Silver Bulletin Year in Review
My favorite posts of 2025, some notes on the business, and a thank you to our readers.
 • Nate Silver
ELWAY NFL team projections: Week 18
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson
The 51 biggest American political moments of the 21st century
For Christmas, I’m giving you a listicle.
 • Nate Silver
I've tracked my last 800 flights. Here's when you really need to get to the airport.
The 2-hour rule is usually a myth.
 • Nate Silver
Did Las Vegas get too greedy?
There's not a recession or a pandemic, but visitors are down almost 8 percent this year. What's going wrong?
 • Nate Silver
Thank you for reading Silver Bulletin! If you enjoy our content, we'd encourage you to become a free or paid subscriber.

SBSQ

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SBSQ #27: Is redistricting backfiring on Republicans?
Redistricting 201. Plus, do NFL teams understand game theory? And, should the Knicks trade for Giannis?
 • Nate Silver
SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless?
Plus the 2026 Senate map, Joe Burrow versus Joe Flacco, and why you should do creative work until you die.
 • Nate Silver
1:17:43
SBSQ #25: Why "No Kings" is a W for Democrats when the shutdown isn't
Plus, sports model plans, Obama's legacy, and why Vermont is so blue — in the first-ever live edition of SBSQ.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
How popular is Donald Trump?
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
 • Nate Silver
24 reasons that Trump won
 • Nate Silver
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
 • Nate Silver

Recent posts

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What is Heather Cox Richardsonism?
No longer just a Substack: it's one of the 3 emerging factions of the Democratic Party.
 • Nate Silver
The Democratic base isn’t in the mood to compromise
Jasmine Crockett probably isn’t an optimal Senate candidate. But Democratic voters are angry, and “when we fight, we win” will be a compelling message…
 • Nate Silver
SBSQ #27: Is redistricting backfiring on Republicans?
Redistricting 201. Plus, do NFL teams understand game theory? And, should the Knicks trade for Giannis?
 • Nate Silver
Biden defenders need to take the 'L'
The Democratic Party should move on from people who still can't admit how badly they screwed up.
 • Nate Silver
Are poker players liberal or conservative?
They became more Trump-curious in 2024. But mostly, they’re anti-establishment types who dislike politics until you threaten their livelihoods.
 • Nate Silver
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