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Solution 2

This document summarizes the solution to a problem involving modeling population mortality using a Weibull distribution. The survivorship function S(t), which gives the probability of an individual living to age t, is derived. S(t) is plotted for different values of the Weibull parameter p. A value of p=0 best models human survivorship, as it has the highest probability of surviving to older ages. A value of p=10 may best model fish survivorship, as it has the lowest probability of long-term survival.

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Ryan Mulcahy
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68 views2 pages

Solution 2

This document summarizes the solution to a problem involving modeling population mortality using a Weibull distribution. The survivorship function S(t), which gives the probability of an individual living to age t, is derived. S(t) is plotted for different values of the Weibull parameter p. A value of p=0 best models human survivorship, as it has the highest probability of surviving to older ages. A value of p=10 may best model fish survivorship, as it has the lowest probability of long-term survival.

Uploaded by

Ryan Mulcahy
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MAT 369 - Fall 2011 Solution Portfolio #2

Ryan Mulcahy

Problem: 5. A Population N = N (t) with N (0) = N0 satises the mortality law dN = m(t)N dt (1)

where m(t) > 0 is a time-dependent mortality rate. Let S(t) be the survivorship function, which is the probability that an individual in the initial population will live to age t [ thus S(t) = N (t)/N0 ]. The Weibull model of mortality is p+1 m(t) = p0 t t0
p

(2)

where p0 , t0 , and p are parameters. Find S(t) and plot its shape for the cases p = 0, p = 3, and p = 10. Which one might best model human survivorship? Fish survivorship? Solution: We are given dN = m(t)N dt Substituting for m(t) we have p+1 dN = dt p0 t t0
p

(3)

(4)

Which is equivalent to dN p+1 p (t ) N = dt p0 tp 0 This is a seperable equation. Seperating variables N and t gives dN p+1 p (t ) dt = N p0 tp 0 We then integrate both sides of Equation 6 and realize that dN p+1 = N p0 tp 0 p+1 is a constant multiple p0 tp 0 (7)

(5)

(6)

(tp ) dt

MAT 369 - Fall 2011 Solution Portfolio #2

Ryan Mulcahy

Which gives ln N = p + 1 1 p+1 t +C p0 tp p + 1 0 tp+1 +C p0 tp 0


p+1 p p0 t0

(8)

Which simplies to ln N = (9)

Exponentiating both sides and folding in the constant gives N = Ae


t

(10)

To nd S(t) we need to nd N(0) rst. N (0) = Ae S(t) =


N (t) N (0)
(0)p+1 p p0 t0

=A

(11)

so
p+1 p p0 t0

S(t) = e
1.0

(12)

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Figure 1: Plot of S(t) for p = 0, 3, and 10 It seems likely that humans would have a higher probability of surviving to an older age than sh would. The plot corresponding to p = 0 has a much higher probability of surviving to older ages than p = 3 or p = 10. It also seems likely that sh ought to have the smallest probability of surving to an older age. This corresponds with the value p = 10 2

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