Not So Squeezy - Trading Manual
Not So Squeezy - Trading Manual
Not so squeezy
The markets are not a gathering of lines and arrows, it is a gathering of emotional people feeding of each other. Lets look at discovering the emotion of the markets.
BY AKUMA99
Using the Bollinger Squeeze to time your entry in today's markets is one thing, but how do you know the direction in those quiet times, let's have at how I use some indicators to help?
To view a chart as just a series of lines and colours is to not recognize what underlies all the marketplaces in the world ...
Background
Before I get into what I do to try to take advantage of the insight into market timing that the Bollinger Squeeze indicator can provide, first I thought it best to explain where this system came from in the first place. When first trading the Forex markets, I did so with very little indicators, as, not coming from a mathematical, economical or trading background, the different coloured lines, histograms and arrows meant very little to me. I spent the first six months trading, what I learnt later was to be called, naked, i.e. without indicators. During these first six months I was at times disheartened, discouraging and disillusioned as I had nothing to put the blame on, no indicator to tweak thinking it was it's fault, but in hindsight it was the best thing I could have done to get started on the right foot. What this did, was made sure, that I added indicators to aid me in identifying the different components of the market that I was trying to interpret through price action alone, rather than add indicators for the sake of adding indicators. Each indicator in this system is there to help to quickly identify a market component in an easy, visually pleasing way. I make no apologies for the fact the charts that come with this system, are colourful and elaborate, they are this way to make it easy on the eye, and more inviting for the brain to process. Anyone who has watched Big Brother, one, has little taste in television :), and two, will understand what it feels like to be on the outside looking in. The charts we look at every day
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Not So Squeezy
is essentially a small window into the large universe that is trading system you employ is set-up to take advantage of the economic market place. these trends. A trend useless to you if your method is looking changes of emotion in the market. Some examples of this are To view a chart as just a series of lines and colours is to not breakout strategies, price exhaustion strategies and reversal recognize what underlies all the marketplaces in the world is trading. one thing, people. A strong trend is like a strong current in the ocean, it is From shopping markets to economic markets, it is still the something that should not be swum against, as all you will same thing, people exchanging one item they have for do is tire yourself physically, emotionally and mentally, so another item another person has. Without this, a that you will be to exhausted to take advantage of things when the current subsides, or changes. marketplace does not exist.
Anyone who is in a relationship will understand that a person If a current (trend) is weak however, you may be able to get can be an emotional being; fear, anger, elation, depression, a head start on the other swimmers, if the target (shore) is sadness, they are all what make us uniquely us. It is because near. A calm ocean, with no current, i.e. a market with no of this that I view reading emotion to be a vital component trend, should be the easiest swimming conditions of them all, of trading successfully. If you can get a sense of the emotion yet continually many flounder under those conditions as they of the market, then you can devise an appropriate trading try to swim with a current that is no longer there. These strategy to take advantage of that emotion. There is no better time to ask my wife to watch a football game than when I can read that she is happy, predictable I may have lost some with the whole ocean analogy but the and calm. I take the same techniques I use to read my wife's point is, how the market is feeling needs to be identified. If mood into the marketplace, if my system is going to hold it's the market is comfortable, happy and emotionless this is own, it needs to be able to tell me what the market mood is, when you will see consistent trending conditions where what its excitement level is, and what it is thinking. straight trend lines and fibonacci levels are honoured. If the market is moody, depressed or angry, this is where you will see ranging, whipsaw action that will leave traders still trying to trade a trend (swim with a current that isnt there) three trending conditions need to be identified, and the trading strategy adjusted accordingly.
The trend can be your friend ... if your friend is the trend ...
beating their heads against a wall wondering why their So with this on board, there are three things I look at to system is broken. It isnt broken of course, the market just determine the mood of the market; Trend, Acceleration and isnt in the mood for a trending system. It is out of energy, Volatility. Let's look at these one at a time. frustrated and indecisive, best to just tread lightly and let the market rest.
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of change of velocity of an object with respect to time. The is almost always seen in the day(s) leading up to a major
object of course is price, and price can certainly be measure economic news announcement, such as inflation figures and against time in the trading environment. The quicker price interest rate announcements, but is also seen at other times, moves up or down, the great the acceleration of price, it is where there doesn't seem to be any other reason other than perhaps a small thing, but it can help to know what we are the market is resting, or stopping to think. really looking at. For the technically minded you will see this phenomenon on Acceleration is a sign of the excitement levels of the market. an intra day basis around important support and resistance Think of a 5 year old, tell that 5 year old that over on the areas, such as round numbers, trend lines and pivots, and desk is a piece of broccoli, can they please go over and eat quite often form the well known technical patterns of double it. What do you think that child would do (after the tantrum)? tops and bottoms, head and shoulder formations, triangles Most likely walk slowly at best, there is no reason to rush as and changes in polarity. there is nothing exciting to be found. Tell that same child that their is a bag of lollies however, and most likely they would be in a full sprint before you can finish the sentence, why? Because they are excited of course, is so the speed they travel to their destination is quicker.
The quiet before the storm has never held truer than in the trading environment.
Summary
An accelerating market is the same, it is buzzing with excitement, something is going to happen, or has happened So that's it, we want a system to be able to tell us what mood that has excited the market so much that price is racing the market is is, if it is excited or depressed and what it is along at breakneck speed. If this happens out of a period of thinking. The market is a moody beast that is impossible to congestion, we may be seeing the start of a new trend, if we tame in truth, but knowing it's mood will get you trading a are at the end of a prolonged trend, we need to be wary this market during the least dangerous times, when the odds are could be the last exhaustive run before the market collapses stacked in your favour to come out the other side relatively in a heap and sleeps, lollies in hand. unscathed. The following pages will list some indicators the Not So Squeezy method uses and why they are used, it is not a hard and fast rule that you have to use each indicator suggested, you may find a different indicator serves you better, but remember what the indicator is measuring in the first place.
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Not So Squeezy
whether it be through a news release, approaching major support or resistance levels, or at times more commonly, simply a change in market sentiment. Have a look at Illustration 1 above, on the main chart are the Bollinger Bands and Keltner channels on a chart together. You can see the yellow highlighted areas are where the Bollinger Bands have moved inside the Keltner channels, and a subsequent move has followed. Below the main chart is a version of the Bollinger Squeeze indicator that is most commonly seen around the trading world. In this chart, the blue dots correspond to when the Bollinger Bands are inside the Keltner Channels, where the red dots are when the Bollinger Bands are outside the Keltner Channels.
Not So Squeezy
I have previously testing this on things like the NASDAQ, SP500, Gold and various other commodity charts, and the patterns are the same. As a demonstration, Illustration 2 is the SP500 chart as I write this manual, marked in yellow are areas where moves were predicted. Why are they the same in all markets?, because the squeeze is a measure of emotion, of when people have stopped to think and all markets are driven by the ultimate in emotional beings, us. The Bollinger Squeeze is far from a new concept, indeed it is as old as the Bollinger Bands themselves, combining them with the Keltner channels is a slightly newer concept, but again not something that isn't widely used, we are not trying to break new ground, we are just trying to find something that will tell us when the market has stopped to think, and I have found nothing better. The reason why is the very reason the squeeze is in place Now before you all go off excitedly, there is one major flaw in the Bollinger Squeeze, Keltner Channel method, while it provides excellent timing, it doesnt indicate the most important factor, that being direction. Times when volatility in the first place. It is because everyone has stopped to think, as they try to figure out which way the next strong push should go. The decision may be that change needs to be made, or it may be that things were fine the way they
is so low give little to indicate which way the market will go. were, it is something we will explore a little later.
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Not So Squeezy
I only use the RMMA to make my charts look more pleasing to the eye. I make no apologies for this, if I am going to stare at a chart for a couple of hours, it might as well be pleasing to the eye. The basic idea of the RMMA is to identify if there is a trend,
and if so, in what direction and how strong. Those that Multiple Moving Average (RMMA). It is, essentially not really consider themselves as trend traders, do so on the idea an indicator in the traditional sense, it is actually just eighty that they should only be wrong once, i.e. when the trend eight Exponential Moving Averages (EMA's), all on the same changes, so if a trend can be identified, or lack there-of, chart coloured like a rainbow, hence the name. then an appropriate trading plan can be put in place. An Australian stock trader named Daryl Guppy introduced a now very popular method of trading called the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) technique, and with this introduced the concept of using the appearance of these moving averages, and how they are spread, compressed or overlapping to measure the long and short term sentiment of the market, the speculators and the investors as he called them. His book Trend Trading, goes into this further and is well worth a read. The RMMA is a clear visual indication of the trend.
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Have a look at Illustration 3 above, this is the same EURUSD chart from Illustration 1, this time with the RMMA. You can see that the slope of the RMMA tells us the direction, in this case an uptrend. How spread out the averages are from each other tells us if the trend has some strength to it, and areas where the averages compress, fold over or get jumbled together indicate a possible weakening trend, or upcoming ranging conditions.
Not So Squeezy
Indicator 3: Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Settings: 100SMA and 200SMA on Close Measures: Support, Resistance and Barriers Moving averages are very commonly seen in most systems, usually either as an indication of trend, or used as an entry signal when one moving average crosses over another. The RMMA above of course takes this to the extreme, using 88 different averages to paint a picture of the trend, however using moving averages as crossover entry signals alone has been proven time and time again to be slow and clumsy, especially in ranging conditions. Another use however is to use these averages as dynamic support and resistance areas. You may be familiar with straight line trend lines acting as support and resistance areas, but Moving Averages work just as well, if not better sometimes. Illustration 4 is an example of the different picture you get when using a moving average as your trend line for support, resistance and target setting, rather than the traditional straight trend line (which has its own merit mind Just a quick note as to why the 100SMA and 200SMA, these are used purely because they are used by others. They are watched in most analyst reports you find on the net, and so get quite a following. If you know what everyone is watching, then you know the areas that may be defended. Areas A and B are examples of the 100SMA acting as a support area, and in this case, they corresponded to a signal or two from the Bollinger Squeeze indicator. For those wanting to trade against the trend, these longer term SMAs can act as a nice guide to profit taking areas also, as shown below on the 10th of May, where a Squeeze signal trigger a sharp drop. Hindsight is the clearest sight of all of course, but the 100SMA might have been a nice area to close half a position, with the 200SMA the final target. you). A case in point is area C, where it appears we have a trend line break, and could very well have triggered a short trade, expecting a trend reversal. If however, you knew there was the 200SMA below offering another area of support, you may have waited for a close below that before entering short. Of course you can see what happened when it hit the 200SMA.
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Not So Squeezy
Indicator 4: Bollinger Bands
Settings: 20,2,Close Measures: Overbought, oversold conditions We can tell when the market is in ranging conditions through our use of the RMMA as mentioned earlier, but I It may seem odd that we are essentially, using the Bollinger have found oscillators struggle to provide overbought Bands twice in the system, once with the Keltner Channels to define the squeeze and again here. However they have two distinct uses. So instead I like to use the Bollinger Bands, overlayed Anyone who has used oscillators know the concept of overbought and oversold conditions. Oscillators attempt to tell us when price is relatively oversold or overbought compared to recent history. Once these conditions are met, then we are taught to look for a reversal in price. It is my view however, and the view of other well known traders, that these signals are no better than a 50/50 bet, through back testing has proven this time and time again. Like I read the other day, even a broken clock is right twice a day. All is not lost however with this mode of trading, it is acknowledged that oscillators work better in ranging conditions, and they also work better if you only take the Once the trend direction is established via the RMMA, we can look for signs of reversals at the appropriate Bollinger Band, if the trend is up, we look for long triggers at the bottom Bollinger Band and vise versa. If the market is ranging, or directionless, we can think about trading both sides of the Bollinger Bands until a sign of a trend is evident. directly onto price to find those overbought and oversold areas. Illustration 5 shows the correlation between the Bollinger Bands and a default Stochastic Oscillator. At times they give you a little extra, such as on the 9th of May below where the Stochastic is showing oversold conditions but we are not at the upper Bollinger Band. signals in a strong down trend, and oversold signals in a strong up trending market. signals in relation to the trend, for example only trade oversold signals in an up trend.
Illustration 5: Using the Bollinger Bands to show overbought and oversold areas.
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Not So Squeezy
find them, look for trending conditions, oversold areas and areas where the market has stopped to think and you will find all four opportunities. The following pages contain various charts of different markets and time frames and conditions, see if you can find the trading opportunities in these charts. At the end of the document are the same charts with what I consider to be good trades, importantly this does not mean they are always successful trades, but rather trades that have sound logic behind them. Some may want to take these principals and extend them
It so happened that while writing the manual, the market happened to be in a nice up trend, you can see through the separation of the rainbow how easy this is to see, the longer term moving averages (in purple) are clearly sloping up and well separated, as are the middle averages in red, showing the underlying strength of the trend. This is a classic example of a current not worth swimming against. There are four clear trading opportunities in the above chart, all of which would have turned a nice little profit with some very basic money management rules. See if you can
to different trading conditions, such as counter-trend trading for example. I have one condition if this is done, let me know because it is doing my head in! :) A link to where you can find the indicators for this system for Metatrader 4 (http://www.metaquotes.net) is at the end of this document.
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Not So Squeezy
Not So Squeezy
Not So Squeezy
trigger. When do we enter a trade long or short, what gives should be the one you are most comfortable with.
www.woodiescciclub.com).
and exit a trade, and the Not So Squeezy framework can let time with the 50CCI shown and triggers labelled. You can
Not So Squeezy
http://
www.hotcandlestick.com/ while a list of different the CCI can be a handy tool. Whether you use the 50CCI or formation can be found at http://www.litwick.com/ another setting is up to you, Woodie uses a 14 and a 6 I glossary.html
believe, so see which one gives you the best results. Lets look at Illustration 8, yep the same chart again
(sorry if you are sick of it!), but instead of taking the CCI as our trigger, lets look for some candlestick formations instead. These are but only a small sample of the different formations that exist, but it should give you an idea. The first long signal marked is a bullish engulfing candle. This is where the body of the bull candle is somewhat larger, and more than covers that of the preceding bear candle. The fact this happened at the same time as a squeeze signal, at the lower Bollinger Band and it closed above the 100SMA, is a very strong trigger signal to go long with the prevailing trend.
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Not So Squeezy
The second is a more advanced formation call the Bullish 3 inside up formation, where we have two inside days (where the entire candle is contained within the preceding candle) right above the 200SMA and at the lower Bollinger Band (remember it is an indication of oversold conditions). The third is a basic single candle formation called a bullish hammer, where the body is very small, with a long lower wick. This shows there was an attempt to push prices lower, but they were quickly rejected. Again this is at the lower Bollinger Band, and we have a squeeze signal, so time to go long. These are only three of the many other formations out there, for the astute reader, you would notice that there are a fair few counter trend formations that form at the upper Bollinger Band as well, this is a more advanced method of trading this system that I myself dont feel comfortable with, but explore it at your leisure. These are just two trigger methods, try to find yours. Entries are so often the focus of most traders systems, with the assumption that as long as there is an opportunity to make a profit (i.e. as long as the trade goes my way), then all will be ok. Unfortunately in practice this is often not the case, knowing when to exit is harder than knowing when to enter as greed can be a more powerful force than anything the market can throw at you. Bad exits can be the cause of most frustration for beginners especially when closing a trade with a small profit only to see it take off straight after that. Having set exit rules, with the discipline to stick to it, as well as the knowledge that you may give up some potential profits to protect yourself against much larger losses is one of the greatest trading challenges for the early trader. Remember, you can lose money from a profitable trade as well.
Exits
Exits should be the most pleasurable part of your trading, it is after all when you make your money ...
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Not So Squeezy
corresponds to the blue circle (exit level). (more info at The Not So Squeezy method has only one hard and fast rule for exits, and one optional exit strategy. The hard and fast rule is to close at least half of your position at the opposite Bollinger Band. In Illustration 9, these exits are marked with red cicles, and as the trend is shown to be up, these are all long positions. The optional exit rule is to let half of your position run for the 161.8 fibonacci extension level. This is especially relevant if the move from one Bollinger Band to the next has high acceleration (excitement). The main thing is to stick to your exit strategy as closely as your entry strategy, you should not let elation, greed or ego let you forget that the market can turn on you just as quickly as it is currently rewarding you. For those not familiar with fibonacci extensions it is simply the height of the correction, or the swing into the main First of all, stop losses are hunted, especially in the Retail Forex world, there is no hiding that fact, and no use winging about it either, as it has been going on as long as Adam was a boy. Illustration 10 shows areas where stops runs occurred. This fact makes some believe then that it is Stop loss placement is one of the most widely disputed aspects of trading. Where to place stop losses? Should we place stop losses? Do people hunt stop losses? etc. etc. If this optional strategy is employed, be sure to lock in at least +1 (might as well make something) with that last half lot you have open, we dont want to make an otherwise winning trade a losing one.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/ AdvFibonacci.asp)
move, multiplied by a derivative of the golden ratio (0.618). best not to place a stop at all, but instead place a mental So in Illustration 9, we have a swing down, before the stop so they brokerage houses dont know where your stop major move up as shown by the red diagonal line. That swing down multiplied by 1.618 results in the line that is sitting.
Not So Squeezy
they watch client accounts dwindle away. The sheer volume Which area you choose is up to you according to your risk
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Links
Not So Squeezy Indicators http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/ showthread.php?t=5174. Money Management http://www.trader-soft.com/money-management/ index.html http://daytrading.about.com/od/educationtraining/a/ moneymanagement.htm http://daytrading.about.com/cs/educationtraining/l/ aa092799.htm http://www.babypips.com/forex-school/moneymanagement.html Forex Basics http://www.babypips.com/ http://www.beginnertrader.com http://www.babypips.com/forex-school/markethours.html http://www.refcofx.com/education/what-movesrates.html 18 Calendar http://www.forexfactory.com News http://www.actionforex.com/ http://www.fxstreet.com/ http://wn.com/s/forexcapitalnews/index.html http://www.forexcentral.net/ Forums http://www.trade2win.com/ http://www.forexfactory.com/ http://www.tacticaltrader.com/ http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/ http://www.forex-tsd.com/ Trading Blogs http://tradermike.net/ http://www.thinkingstuff.com/blog/ http://www.dismally.com/ http://globetrader.blogspot.com/ http://www.dopeness.org/
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Not So Squeezy
Example 1 Answer
Example 2 Answer 19
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Not So Squeezy
Example 3 Answer
Example 4 Answer 20
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Not So Squeezy
Example 5 Answer
Example 6 Answer 21
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