Cooperation, Anarchy, and the Prisoners Dilemma Why shouldnt states cooperate in an anarchic international system?
m? Theres no way to reinforce the agreement
Conditions for Cooperation in an Anarchic World A long shadow of the future (repeatedly acting with other states) Be nice (being willing to cooperate the first time) Be provocable (if someone cheats, they deserve punishment) Be forgiving (if someone cheats, you should be able to forgive them)
Axelrods Key Results Cooperation is possible even in a world of egoists If the shadow of the future is long enough, theres no best strategy independent of the other player Tit-for-tat is optimal strategy for sustained cooperation
What does Cooperation Look Like International trade Foreign Aid Alliances
We Have No Quarrel with the People The United States have no quarrel with the ________ people Iraqi- Bush/Prime Minister Blair
Yugoslavian- Clinton Libyan- Reagan Palestinian- Prime Minister Sharon
Leader Specific Punishments Basing cooperation on the behavior of leaders instead of states provides a mechanism that can promote interstate cooperation
Logic Behind Leader Specific Punishment Cooperation benefits population If a leader defects, benefits from cooperation stop accruing to the population If population removes the leader, the benefits from cooperation can be restored
General Predictions Greater cooperation among democracies Non-democratic leaders are more likely to cheat Greater change in international cooperation
Evidence Patterns of trade altered by leadership change Economic sanctions more likely to end after leadership change Alliances are more likely to change after leadership change
Specific Predictions Democracies have greater trade flows Leadership turnover reduces trade in dictatorships Democracies are less likely to have poor trade relations If relations are poor, leadership turnover in dictatorships is more likely to restore good trade relations
Whats the Catch The leaders who are most likely to be punished for cheating are the least likely to cheat while the leaders that are most likely to cheat are the leaders that are the least likely to be punished for cheating
US Foreign Policy and LSP Iraq and Economic Sanctions Egypt and trade relations