Assignment Kit for

Program 3
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Personal Software Process (PSP) for Engineers: Part I
The Software Engineering Institute (SEI)
is a federally funded research and development center
sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense and
Program 3 October 2006 1 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
operated by Carnegie Mellon University.
This material is approved for public release.
Distribution limited by the Software Engineering Institute to attendees.
Program 3 October 2006 2 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Personal Software Process for Engineers: Part I
Assignment Kit for Program 3
Overview
Overview This assignment kit covers the following topics.
Section See Page
Prerequisites
2
Program 3 requirements
3
Regression overview
5
Correlation overview
6
Calculating regression and correlation
8
An example
9
Assignment instructions
11
Guidelines and evaluation criteria
18
Prerequisites Reading
Chapters 5 and 6
Program 3 October 2006 3 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Program 3 requirements
Program 3
requirements
Using PSP1, write a program to
calculate the linear regression parameters
0

and

1

and correlation
coefficients y x
r
, and
2
r

for a set of n pairs of data,
given an estimate,
k
x
calculate an improved prediction,
k
y
where
k k
x y
1 0
+
enhance the linked list developed in program 1 to store the n data sets, where
each record holds two real numbers
Table 1 contains historical estimated and actual data for 10 programs. For
program 11, the developer has estimated a proxy size of 386 LOC.
Thoroughly test the program. At a minimum, run the following four test cases.
Test 1: Calculate the regression parameters and correlation coefficients
between estimated proxy size and actual added and modified size in Table 1.
Calculate plan added and modified size given an estimated proxy size of
k
x
=
386.
Test 2: Calculate the regression parameters and correlation coefficients
between estimated proxy size and actual development time in Table 1.
Calculate time estimate given an estimated proxy size of
k
x
= 386.
Test 3: Calculate the regression parameters and correlation coefficients
between plan added and modified size and actual added and modified size in
Table 1. Calculate plan added and modified size given an estimated proxy
size of
k
x
= 386.
Test 4: Calculate the regression parameters and correlation coefficients
between plan added and modified size and actual development time in Table
1. Calculate time estimate given an estimated proxy size of
k
x
= 386.
Expected results are provided in Table 2.
Program
Number
Estimated
Proxy Size
Plan Added and
Modified size
Actual Added and
Modified Size
Actual
Development
Hours
1 130 163 186 15.0
2 650 765 699 69.9
3 99 141 132 6.5
4 150 166 272 22.4
5 128 137 291 28.4
6 302 355 331 65.9
7 95 136 199 19.4
8 945 1206 1890 198.7
Program 3 October 2006 4 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
9 368 433 788 38.8
10 961 1130 1601 138.2
Table 1
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 5 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Program 3 requirements, Continued
Expected
results
Test Expected Values Actual Values
0

y x
r
,
2
r
k
y
0

y x
r
,
2
r
k
y
Test 1 -22.55 1.7279 0.954
5
0.911
1
644.429
Test 2 -4.039 0.1681 0.933
3
.8711 60.858
Test 3 -23.92 1.43097 .9631 .9276 528.429
4
Test 4 -4.604 0.14016
4
.9480 .8988 49.4994
Table 2
Program 3 October 2006 6 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Regression
Overview Linear regression is a way of optimally fitting a line to a set of data. The linear
regression line is the line where the distance from all points to that line is
minimized. The equation of a line can be written as
x y
1 0
+
In Figure 1, the best fit regression line has parameters of
0

= -4.0389 and
1

=
0.1681.
Figure 1
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 7 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
y = -4.0389 +0.1681x
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Estimated Proxy Size
A c t u a l D e v e l o p m e n t H o u r s
Regression, Continued
Using regression in
the PSP
Looking at Figure 1, how many hours do you think it would take to develop a
program with an estimated proxy size of 500?
Using PROBE method A for time, the estimate would be
( ) 500
1 0
+ te TimeEstima
or an estimate of 80.011 hours.
The PSP PROBE method uses regression parameters to make better predictions
of size and time based on your historical data.
PROBE methods A and B differ only in the historical data (x values) used to
calculate the regression parameters. In PROBE method A, estimated proxy size
are used as the x values. In PROBE method B, plan added and modified size
are used as the x values.
PROBE methods for size and time differ only in the historical data (y values)
used to calculate the regression parameters. To predict improved size estimates,
actual added and modified LOC are used as the y values. To predict time
estimates, actual development times are used as the y values.
Historical Data Used x values y values
Size Estimating
PROBE A Estimated Proxy
Size
Actual Added and
Modified Size
PROBE B Plan Added and
Modified Size
Actual Added and
Modified Size
Time Estimating
PROBE A Estimated Proxy
Size
Actual
Development
Time
PROBE B Plan Added and
Modified Size
Actual
Development
Time
Program 3 October 2006 8 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Correlation
Overview The correlation calculation determines the relationship between two sets of
numerical data.
The correlation y x
r
, can range from +1 to -1.
Results near +1 imply a strong positive relationship; when x increases, so does
y.
Results near -1 imply a strong negative relationship; when x increases, y
decreases.
Results near 0 imply no relationship.
Using correlation
in the PSP
Correlation is used in the PSP to judge the quality of the linear relation in various
historical process data that are used for planning. For example, the relationships
between estimated proxy size and actual time or plan added and modified size
and actual time.
For this purpose, we examine the value of the relation r
xy
squared, or
2
r .
If
2
r is the relationship is
.9
2
r predictive; use it with high confidence
.7
2
r < .
9
strong and can be used for planning
.5
2
r < .
7
adequate for planning but use with caution
2
r < .5 not reliable for planning purposes
Program 3 October 2006 9 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Limitations of
correlation
Correlation doesnt imply cause and effect.
A strong correlation may be coincidental.
From 1840 to 1960, no U.S. president elected in
a year ending in 0 survived his presidency.
Coincidence or Correlation?
Many coincidental correlations may be found in historical process data.
To use a correlation, you must understand the cause-and-effect relationship in
the process.
Program 3 October 2006 10 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Calculating regression and correlation
Calculating
regression and
correlation
The formulas for calculating the regression parameters
0

and

1

are
( )
( )
2
1
2
1
1
avg
n
i
i
avg avg
n
i
i i
nx x
y nx y x

,
_

,
_

avg avg
x y
1 0

The formulas for calculating the correlation coefficient y x
r
, and
2
r are
1
1
]
1

,
_

,
_

1
1
]
1

,
_

,
_

,
_

,
_

,
_

2
1 1
2
2
1 1
2
1 1 1
,
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
y x
y y n x x n
y x y x n
r
r r r *
2

where
is the symbol for summation
i is an index to the n numbers
x and y are the two paired sets of data
n is the number of items in each set x and y
avg
x
is the average of the x values
avg
y
is the average of the y values
Program 3 October 2006 11 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
An example
An example
In this example, we will calculate the regression parameters (
0

and

1

values)
and correlation coefficients y x
r
, and
2
r of the data in the Table 3.
n x y
1 130 186
2 650 699
3 99 132
4 150 272
5 128 291
6 302 331
7 95 199
8 945 1890
9 368 788
10 961 1601
Table 3
( )
( )
2
1
2
1
1
avg
n
i
i
avg avg
n
i
i i
nx x
y nx y x

,
_

,
_

1. In this example there are 10 items in each dataset and therefore we set n =
10.
2. We can now solve the summation items in the formulas.
n x y x
2
x*y y
2
1 130 186 16900 24180
34596
2 650 699 422500 454350
488601
3 99 132 9801 13068
17424
4 150 272 22500 40800
73984
5 128 291 16384 37248
84681
6 302 331 91204 99962
109561
7 95 199 9025 18905
39601
8 945 1890 893025 1786050
3572100
9 368 788 135424 289984
620944
10 961 1601 923521 1538561
2563201
Program 3 October 2006 12 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Total

10
1
3828
i
i
x

10
1
6389
i
i
y

10
1
2
2540284
i
i
x

10
1
4303108
i
i i
y x

10
1
2
7604693
i
i
y
8 . 382
10
3828

avg
x 9 . 638
10
6389

avg
y
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 13 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
An example, Continued
An example, cont. 3. We can then substitute the values into the formulas
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
2 1
8 . 382 * 10 2540284
9 . 638 * 8 . 382 * 10 4303108

727932 . 1
1074926
1857399
1

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) [ ] ( ) ( ) [ ]
2 2
,
6389 7604693 10 3828 2540284 10
6389 3828 4303108 10

y x
r
[ ][ ] 35227609 10749256
18573988
,

y x
r
1 . 19459460
18573988
,

y x
r
9545 . 0
,

y x
r
9111 . 0
2
r
4. We can then substitute the values in the
0

formula
avg avg
x y
1 0

5525 . 22 8 . 382 * 727932 . 1 9 . 638
0

5. We now find
k
y
from the formula
k k
x y
1 0
+
4294 . 644 386 * 727932 . 1 5525 . 22 +
k
y
Program 3 October 2006 14 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions
Assignment
instructions
Before starting program 3, review the top-level PSP1 process script below to
ensure that you understand the big picture before you begin. Also, ensure that
you have all of the required inputs before you begin the planning phase.
PSP1 Process Script
Purpose To guide the development of module-level programs
Entry Criteria - Problem description
- PSP1 Project Plan Summary form
- Size Estimating template
- Historical size and time data (estimated and actual)
- Time and Defect Recording logs
- Defect Type, Coding, and Size Counting standards
- Stopwatch (optional)
Step Activities Description
1 Planning - Produce or obtain a requirements statement.
- Use the PROBE method to estimate the added and modified size of this
program.
- Complete the Size Estimating template.
- Use the PROBE method to estimate the required development time.
- Enter the plan data in the Project Plan Summary form.
- Complete the Time Recording log.
2 Development - Design the program.
- Implement the design.
- Compile the program, and fix and log all defects found.
- Test the program, and fix and log all defects found.
- Complete the Time Recording log.
3 Postmortem Complete the Project Plan Summary form with actual time, defect, and
size data.
Exit Criteria - A thoroughly tested program
- Completed Project Plan Summary form with estimated and actual data
- Completed Size Estimating template
- Completed Test Report template
- Completed PIP forms
- Completed Time and Defect Recording logs
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 15 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
Planning phase Plan program 3 following the PSP1 planning phase and the PROBE estimating
scripts.
PSP1 Planning Script
Purpose To guide the PSP planning process
Entry Criteria - Problem description
- PSP1 Project Plan Summary form
- Size Estimating template
- Historical size and time data (estimated and actual)
- Time Recording log
Step Activities Description
1 Program
Requirements
- Produce or obtain a requirements statement for the program.
- Ensure that the requirements statement is clear and unambiguous.
- Resolve any questions.
2 Size
Estimate
- Produce a program conceptual design.
- Use the PROBE method to estimate the added and modified size of this
program.
- Complete the Size Estimating template and Project Plan Summary
form.
3 Resource
Estimate
- Use the PROBE method to estimate the time required to develop this
program.
- Using the To Date % from the most recently developed program as a
guide, distribute the development time over the planned project phases.
(Note: This step is completed by the SEI student workbook.)
Exit Criteria - Documented requirements statement
- Program conceptual design
- Completed Size Estimating template
- Completed Project Plan Summary form with estimated program size and
development time data
- Completed Time Recording log
Verify that you have met all of the exit criteria for the planning phase, then have
an instructor review your plan. After your plan has been reviewed, proceed to
the development phase.
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 16 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
Use the PROBE method to create size and resource estimates.
Purpose To guide the size and time estimating process using the PROBE method
Entry Criteria - Requirements statement
- Size Estimating template and instructions
- Size per item data for part types
- Time Recording log
- Historical size and time data
General - This script assumes that you are using added and modified size data as
the size-accounting types for making size and time estimates.
- If you choose some other size-accounting types, replace every added
and modified in this script with the size-accounting types of your
choice.
Step Activities Description
1 Conceptual Design Review the requirements and produce a conceptual design.
2 Parts Additions Follow the Size Estimating Template instructions to estimate the parts
additions and the new reusable parts sizes.
3 Base Parts and
Reused Parts
- For the base program, estimate the size of the base, deleted, modified,
and added code.
- Measure and/or estimate the size of the parts to be reused.
4 Size Estimating
Procedure
- If you have sufficient estimated proxy size and actual added and
modified size data (three or more points that correlate), use procedure
4A.
- If you do not have sufficient estimated data but have sufficient plan
added and modified and actual added and modified size data (three or
more points that correlate), use procedure 4B.
- If you have insufficient data or they do not correlate, use procedure 4C.
- If you have no historical data, use procedure 4D.
4A Size Estimating
Procedure 4A
- Using the linear-regression method, calculate the
0
and
1
parameters
from the estimated proxy size and actual added and modified size data.
- If the absolute value of
0
is not near 0 (less than about 25% of the
expected size of the new program), or
1
is not near 1.0 (between about
0.5 and 2.0), use procedure 4B.
4B Size Estimating
Procedure 4B
- Using the linear-regression method, calculate the
0
and
1
parameters
from the plan added and modified size and actual added and modified
size data.
- If the absolute value of
0
is not near 0 (less than about 25% of the
expected size of the new program), or
1
is not near 1.0 (between about
0.5 and 2.0), use procedure 4C.
4C Size Estimating
Procedure 4C
If you have any data on plan added and modified size and actual added and
modified size, set
0
= 0 and
1
= (actual total added and modified size to
date/plan total added and modified size to date).
4D Size Estimating
Procedure 4D
If you have no historical data, use your judgment to estimate added and
modified size.
(continued)
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 17 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
PROBE Estimating Script (Continued)
Step Activities Description
5 Time Estimating
Procedure
- If you have sufficient estimated proxy size and actual development time
data (three or more points that correlate), use procedure 5A.
- If you do not have sufficient estimated size data but have sufficient plan
added and modified size and actual development time data (three or
more points that correlate), use procedure 5B.
- If you have insufficient data or they do not correlate, use procedure 5C.
- If you have no historical data, use procedure 5D.
5A Time Estimating
Procedure 5A
- Using the linear-regression method, calculate the
0
and
1
parameters
from the estimated proxy size and actual total development time data.
- If
0
is not near 0 (substantially smaller than the expected development
time for the new program), or
1
is not within 50% of 1/(historical
productivity), use procedure 5B.
5B Time Estimating
Procedure 5B
- Using the linear-regression method, calculate the
0
and
1
regression
parameters from the plan added and modified size and actual total
development time data.
- If
0
is not near 0 (substantially smaller than the expected development
time for the new program), or
1
is not within 50% of 1/(historical
productivity), use procedure 5C.
5C Time Estimating
Procedure 5C
- If you have data on estimated added and modified size and actual
development time, set
0
= 0 and
1
= (actual total development time to
date/estimated total added and modified size to date).
- If you have data on plan added and modified size and actual
development time, set
0
= 0 and
1
= (actual total development time to
date/plan total added and modified size to date).
- If you only have actual time and size data, set
0
= 0 and
1
= (actual
total development time to date/actual total added and modified size to
date).
5D Time Estimating
Procedure 5D
If you have no historical data, use your judgment to estimate the
development time from the estimated added and modified size.
6 Time and Size
Prediction
Intervals
- If you used regression method A or B, calculate the 70% prediction
intervals for the time and size estimates.
- If you did not use the regression method or do not know how to calculate
the prediction interval, calculate the minimum and maximum
development time estimate limits from your historical maximum and
minimum productivity for the programs written to date.
Exit Criteria - Completed estimated and actual entries for all pertinent size categories
- Completed PROBE Calculation Worksheet with size and time entries
- Plan and actual values entered on the Project Plan Summary
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 18 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
Development
phase
Develop the program following the PSP1 development phase script.
PSP1 Development Script
Purpose To guide the development of small programs
Entry Criteria - Requirements statement
- Project Plan Summary form with estimated program size and
development time
- Time and Defect Recording logs
- Defect Type standard and Coding standard
Step Activities Description
1 Design - Review the requirements and produce a design to meet them.
- Record in the Defect Recording log any requirements defects found.
- Record time in the Time Recording log.
2 Code - Implement the design following the Coding standard.
- Record in the Defect Recording log any requirements or design defects
found.
- Record time in the Time Recording log.
3 Compile - Compile the program until there are no compile errors.
- Fix all defects found.
- Record defects in the Defect Recording log.
- Record time in the Time Recording log.
4 Test - Test until all tests run without error.
- Fix all defects found.
- Record defects in the Defect Recording log.
- Record time in the Time Recording log.
- Complete a Test Report template on the tests conducted and the results
obtained.
Exit Criteria - A thoroughly tested program that conforms to the Coding standard
- Completed Test Report template
- Completed Time and Defect Recording logs
Verify that you have met all of the exit criteria for the development phase, then
proceed to the postmortem phase.
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 19 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
Postmortem
phase Conduct the postmortem following the PSP1 postmortem script.
PSP1 Postmortem Script
Purpose To guide the PSP postmortem process
Entry Criteria - Problem description and requirements statement
- Project Plan Summary form with program size and development time
data
- Completed Test Report template
- Completed Time and Defect Recording logs
- A tested and running program that conforms to the coding and size
counting standards
Step Activities Description
1 Defect Recording - Review the Project Plan Summary to verify that all of the defects found
in each phase were recorded.
- Using your best recollection, record any omitted defects.
2 Defect Data
Consistency
- Check that the data on every defect in the Defect Recording log are
accurate and complete.
- Verify that the numbers of defects injected and removed per phase are
reasonable and correct.
- Using your best recollection, correct any missing or incorrect defect data.
3 Size - Count the size of the completed program.
- Determine the size of the base, deleted, modified, base additions,
reused, new reusable code, and added parts.
- Enter these data in the Size Estimating template.
- Determine the total program size
- Enter this data in the Project Plan Summary form.
4 Time - Review the completed Time Recording log for errors or omissions.
- Using your best recollection, correct any missing or incomplete time
data.
Exit Criteria - A thoroughly tested program that conforms to the coding and size
counting standards
- Completed Test Report template
- Completed Project Plan Summary form
- Completed PIP forms describing process problems, improvement
suggestions, and lessons learned
- Completed Time and Defect Recording logs
Verify that you have met all of the exit criteria for the PSP1 postmortem phase, then
submit your assignment.
Continued on next page
Program 3 October 2006 20 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Assignment instructions, Continued
Submitting your
assignment
When youve completed the postmortem phase, submit your assignment
package, source code, and test results to the instructor.
The order for the assignment package is
PSP1 Project Plan Summary form
Test Report template
PIP form
Size Estimating template
PROBE Calculation worksheet
Time Recording log
Defect Recording log
source program listing
test results
Program 3 October 2006 21 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
Guidelines and evaluation criteria for program 3
Evaluation
criteria
Your process report must be
complete
legible
in the specified order
Your process data must be
accurate
precise
self-consistent
Suggestions Remember, you should complete this assignment today.
Keep your programs simple. You will learn as much from developing small
programs as from large ones.
If you are not sure about something, ask your instructor for clarification.
Software is not a solo business, so you do not have to work alone.
- You must, however, produce your own estimates, designs, code, and
completed forms and reports.
- You may have others review your work, and you may change it as a result.
- You should note any help you receive from others in your process report.
Log the review time that you and your associates spend, and log the defects
found or any changes made.
Program 3 October 2006 22 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University