Notes
This worksheet replicates the data given in case study 1.
It provides a hands on introduction to the idea of conditional probability.
Familiarize yourself with its structure and formulas before
switching to the worksheet Case study 1(a).
Original data
Number of observations
60
Month
31-May-99
30-Jun-99
31-Jul-99
31-Aug-99
30-Sep-99
31-Oct-99
30-Nov-99
31-Dec-99
31-Jan-00
29-Feb-00
31-Mar-00
30-Apr-00
31-May-00
30-Jun-00
31-Jul-00
31-Aug-00
30-Sep-00
31-Oct-00
30-Nov-00
31-Dec-00
31-Jan-01
28-Feb-01
31-Mar-01
30-Apr-01
31-May-01
30-Jun-01
31-Jul-01
31-Aug-01
30-Sep-01
31-Oct-01
30-Nov-01
System Failure
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Serious Transaction Error
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
31-Dec-01
31-Jan-02
28-Feb-02
31-Mar-02
30-Apr-02
31-May-02
30-Jun-02
31-Jul-02
31-Aug-02
30-Sep-02
31-Oct-02
30-Nov-02
31-Dec-02
31-Jan-03
28-Feb-03
31-Mar-03
30-Apr-03
31-May-03
30-Jun-03
31-Jul-03
31-Aug-03
30-Sep-03
31-Oct-03
30-Nov-03
31-Dec-03
31-Jan-04
29-Feb-04
31-Mar-04
30-Apr-04
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Probability Calculations
onditional probability.
Prob(both fail)
Prob(system_fail)
Prob(Trans_error)
Prob(Trans_error | system fail)
0.27
0.50
0.53
0.53
Coded data
Month
31-May-99
30-Jun-99
31-Jul-99
31-Aug-99
30-Sep-99
31-Oct-99
30-Nov-99
31-Dec-99
31-Jan-00
29-Feb-00
31-Mar-00
30-Apr-00
31-May-00
30-Jun-00
31-Jul-00
31-Aug-00
30-Sep-00
31-Oct-00
30-Nov-00
31-Dec-00
31-Jan-01
28-Feb-01
31-Mar-01
30-Apr-01
31-May-01
30-Jun-01
31-Jul-01
31-Aug-01
30-Sep-01
31-Oct-01
30-Nov-01
Both fail
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
System Failure
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
31-Dec-01
31-Jan-02
28-Feb-02
31-Mar-02
30-Apr-02
31-May-02
30-Jun-02
31-Jul-02
31-Aug-02
30-Sep-02
31-Oct-02
30-Nov-02
31-Dec-02
31-Jan-03
28-Feb-03
31-Mar-03
30-Apr-03
31-May-03
30-Jun-03
31-Jul-03
31-Aug-03
30-Sep-03
31-Oct-03
30-Nov-03
31-Dec-03
31-Jan-04
29-Feb-04
31-Mar-04
30-Apr-04
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
Serious Transaction Error
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
Notes
This worksheet allows you to investigate what happens
to the conditional probability and other probabilities
of case study 1 for a new random sample.
Press < F9 > to generate a new random sample.
You should also investigate what happens if you
change the values in cell J5 and K5.
Original data
Number of observations
60
Month
31-May-99
30-Jun-99
31-Jul-99
31-Aug-99
30-Sep-99
31-Oct-99
30-Nov-99
31-Dec-99
31-Jan-00
29-Feb-00
31-Mar-00
30-Apr-00
31-May-00
30-Jun-00
31-Jul-00
31-Aug-00
30-Sep-00
31-Oct-00
30-Nov-00
31-Dec-00
31-Jan-01
28-Feb-01
31-Mar-01
30-Apr-01
31-May-01
30-Jun-01
31-Jul-01
31-Aug-01
30-Sep-01
31-Oct-01
30-Nov-01
System Failure
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Serious Transaction Error
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
31-Dec-01
31-Jan-02
28-Feb-02
31-Mar-02
30-Apr-02
31-May-02
30-Jun-02
31-Jul-02
31-Aug-02
30-Sep-02
31-Oct-02
30-Nov-02
31-Dec-02
31-Jan-03
28-Feb-03
31-Mar-03
30-Apr-03
31-May-03
30-Jun-03
31-Jul-03
31-Aug-03
30-Sep-03
31-Oct-03
30-Nov-03
31-Dec-03
31-Jan-04
29-Feb-04
31-Mar-04
30-Apr-04
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Probability Calculations
System Failure
0.5
Prob(both fail)
Prob(system_fail)
Prob(Trans_error)
Prob(Trans_error | system fail)
0.20
0.48
0.43
0.41
Coded data
Month
31-May-99
30-Jun-99
31-Jul-99
31-Aug-99
30-Sep-99
31-Oct-99
30-Nov-99
31-Dec-99
31-Jan-00
29-Feb-00
31-Mar-00
30-Apr-00
31-May-00
30-Jun-00
31-Jul-00
31-Aug-00
30-Sep-00
31-Oct-00
30-Nov-00
31-Dec-00
31-Jan-01
28-Feb-01
31-Mar-01
30-Apr-01
31-May-01
30-Jun-01
31-Jul-01
31-Aug-01
30-Sep-01
31-Oct-01
30-Nov-01
Both fail
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
System Failure
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
31-Dec-01
31-Jan-02
28-Feb-02
31-Mar-02
30-Apr-02
31-May-02
30-Jun-02
31-Jul-02
31-Aug-02
30-Sep-02
31-Oct-02
30-Nov-02
31-Dec-02
31-Jan-03
28-Feb-03
31-Mar-03
30-Apr-03
31-May-03
30-Jun-03
31-Jul-03
31-Aug-03
30-Sep-03
31-Oct-03
30-Nov-03
31-Dec-03
31-Jan-04
29-Feb-04
31-Mar-04
30-Apr-04
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
Serious Transaction Error
0.5
Serious Transaction Error
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
Notes
In this worksheet you can investigate the difference between the percentile calculation
of Mr Mondey and Excels percentile function. Change the value in cell C9 to study
the difference between Excel and Mr Mondeys percentile calculation.
Press <F9> for re-calculation.
Percentile
Mr Mondey's OPVAR
Excel's OPVAR
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
95% <----- Try changing this value and then press <F9>
$
$
88,875
88,883
Raw loss data Sorted loss data
$0
$0
$0
$0
$66,178
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$43,711
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$16,442
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$45,442
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$85,803
$0
$87,363
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$89,028
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$55,567
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$97,916
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
$23,863
$53,158
$46,490
$51,641
$36,182
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$76,578
$72,873
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$49,709
$0
$0
$0
$0
$10,488
$0
$0
$0
$0
$34,194
$0
$0
$52,000
$0
$0
$11,982
$0
$1,060
$0
$74,339
$0
$0
$85,512
$0
$60,034
$0
$0
$42,512
$0
$0
$0
$20,998
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1,060
$10,488
$11,982
$16,442
$20,998
$23,863
$34,194
$36,182
$41,402
$42,512
$43,711
$45,442
$46,490
$49,709
$51,641
$52,000
$53,158
$55,567
$60,034
$66,178
$72,873
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
$0
$41,402
$0
$95,153
$0
$88,875
$0
$0
$91,067
$89,797
$0
$74,339
$76,578
$85,512
$85,803
$87,363
$88,875
$89,028
$89,797
$91,067
$95,153
$97,916
een the percentile calculation
value in cell C9 to study
calculation.
and then press <F9>
