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Problem Set For Week 7

The document contains 8 problems related to probability and statistics concepts: 1. Calculating the number of possible squads for a World Cup team and the probability that Wayne Rooney is included. 2. Finding the probability of different scenarios for randomly returning marked essays to students. 3. Calculating the probability that a person has cancer given a positive result from a new diagnostic test. 4. Determining the probability that one of two competing firms will quit the market based on the changing gap between the firms. 5. Analyzing properties of the Poisson distribution and using it to approximate the binomial for a word misprinting problem. 6. Showing two random variables are not independent even

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Seung Yoon Lee
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89 views2 pages

Problem Set For Week 7

The document contains 8 problems related to probability and statistics concepts: 1. Calculating the number of possible squads for a World Cup team and the probability that Wayne Rooney is included. 2. Finding the probability of different scenarios for randomly returning marked essays to students. 3. Calculating the probability that a person has cancer given a positive result from a new diagnostic test. 4. Determining the probability that one of two competing firms will quit the market based on the changing gap between the firms. 5. Analyzing properties of the Poisson distribution and using it to approximate the binomial for a word misprinting problem. 6. Showing two random variables are not independent even

Uploaded by

Seung Yoon Lee
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem Set for Week 7

1. The England Manager has to select 23 out of 30 players for his nal World Cup
squad.
(a) How many dierent possible squads are there? (Assume for simplicity that all
players can play in all positions.)
(b) How many of these squads includes Wayne Rooney (assumed to belong to the
original squad of 30)?
(c) Provide an explanation for the formula

n 1
r 1

n 1
r

n
r

2. A tutor has marked three essays but absent-mindedly returns them to the students
randomly, without looking at the names on the essays. What is the probability
that:
(a) all three students receive their own essay?
(b) none do?
(c) at least two do?
(d) exactly two do?
(e) only one does?
(f) at least one does?
3. One in a thousand of the population of a country suer from cancer. A new di-
agnostic test is developed that gives a positive indication 99% of the time when
an individual has the disease and a negative indication 95% of the time when and
individual does not have the disease. A person is selected a random, is given the
test and reacts positively. What is the probability that this person has cancer?
4. A rm is competing with another rm for market dominance. The gap between the
rms can be represented by an integer. If the gap between the rms is currently x,
it is x+1 next period with probability p and x1 with probability q = 1 p (with
p =
1
2
). If the rm manages to extend its lead over the other rm to b > 0, the
other rm will quit the market. If the gap reaches a < 0, the rm will itself quit
the market. Find a formula for the probability that the rm will quit the market
eventually if the gap between the rms is currently x. Find a similar formula for
the probability that the other rm will quit.
5. (a) Suppose X has Poisson distribution with parameter . Find E(X) and E(X(X
1)) and hence show that the variance of X is .
(b) A page contains 500 words. There is a probability 0.01 that a word is mis-
printed (independently of the other words). Find the probability that the page
contains at most two misprints using
i. the Binomial distribution,
ii. the Poisson approximation to the Binomial.
1
6. Suppose (X, Y ) = (cos , sin ) where = K/4 and K is a random variable such
that Pr(K = r) = 1/8, r = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 7. Show that Cov(X, Y ) = 0 but X and Y
are not independent.
7. An unemployed worker is searching for a job. The probability that he nds a job
on a given day is p (independent of other days). Hence the number of days it takes
for him to nd a job, X, has a geometric distribution with parameter p (that is
P(X = r) = pq
r1
, r = 1, 2, . . ., where q = 1 p.)
(a) Find the mean of X by conditioning on the outcome of his rst day of search.
(b) Find E(X
2
) by conditioning on the outcome of his rst day of search and
hence nd the variance of X.
(c) Find the generating function of X. Use it to nd the mean and variance of X.
(d) Find P(X > s + r|X > r) where s and r are non-negative integers. Interpret
your answer.
8. Suppose that X and Y are independent Poisson random variables with parameters
and respectively.
(a) Find the joint mass function of X and Y , P(X = m, Y = n).
(b) Find P(X + Y = k), for any k, and hence show that X + Y has a Poisson
distribution with parameter + .
(c) Use generating functions to give another proof of the result in the previous
part.
(d) Find the distribution of X conditional on X + Y = m.
2

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