Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S.
Treasury Bond Yield Curve
ISSUE 38 | JANUARY 2011
Table of Contents
CompAct Editorial
NONLINEAR INTERPOLATION WITH EXCEL TO
January 2011
CONSTRUCT U.S. TREASURY BOND YIELD CURVE
by Andrew Chan
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Excel offers many powerful mathematical and statistical functions
that allow us to solve numerous business problems. One of the
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typical challenges is that we don't have all the information we need!
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Using U.S. Treasury bonds as an example; it only has yield rate for
certain maturities, e.g., one year, two years, three years, five years. If
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we want yield rate for a four-years maturity bond, then we may have
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to find a mathematician/statistician to interpolate the value for us.
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Fortunately, we can be the mathematician/statistician if we have
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Microsoft Excel. Excel has a few tools that we can use to interpolate
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values; and we are going to demonstrate a few of them in this article.
Trendline
Nonlinear Interpolation
I went to the U.S. Treasury website and copied the following yield
With Excel To Construct
rates to my Excel Worksheet.
U.S. Treasury Bond Yield
Curve
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Once we have the data, we can create a trendline. The first step is to
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create a chart (graph) based on the yield rate.
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Howard Callif, Editor
It is very simple to add a Trendline: just right-click the data series in
the chart. From the pop-up menu, select Add Trendline.
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The Format Trendline dialogue will be displayed (see below). For
this example, we will choose Polynomial with Order 3 as the trend
type and we also select to Display Equation on chart and Display
R-squared value on chart.
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
After we click the Close button, we would see a trendline is added to
the chart with the equation and R2 .
Worksheet Functions
Excel provides many functions to project values:
FORECAST
TREND
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
GROWTH
LINEST
LOGEST
We are going to use LINEST in this demonstration, which generates
statistics for a "least squares" linear regression (for complete
documentation on the function parameters, see Microsoft's website
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/linestHP005209155.aspx?CTT=1). Since the yield curve is a third order
polynomial function, we have four variables.
Yield = a1 * Years3 + a2 * Years2 + a3 * Years + a4
Enter the following formula in our Excel worksheet to identify the
coefficients a1 through a4 in the formula above:
=INDEX(LINEST(Yield, Years^{1,2,3}),1,1)
=INDEX(LINEST(Yield, Years^{1,2,3}),1,2)
=INDEX(LINEST(Yield, Years^{1,2,3}),1,3)
=INDEX(LINEST(Yield, Years^{1,2,3}),1,4)
Yield and Years are the defined range names containing the Y and
X points. We can see the coefficients a1, a2, a3 a4 and even R2 are
very close to the results from Trendline.
The formula for R2 is: =INDEX(LINEST(Yield,
Years^{1,2,3},TRUE,TRUE),3,1) Note the additional parameters in
the LINEST functionthe last one (TRUE) tells the function to return
additional regression statistics.
Now we have all coefficients, we can interpolate the yield rates that
we need.
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Solver
If we want to use some custom functions, e.g., the Nelson-Siegel
function to interpolate the yield value, "Solver" is a good tool for the
job. The NelsonSiegel function is a modified Exponential function:
Yield = A1 + (A2+A3) * (Beta / Years) * (1-e-Years/Beta) - A3 * eYears/Beta
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Column D shows the projected values that are based on NelsonSiegel function (using arbitrary initial parameters) and Column E is
the Squared Residual value between the projected and actual
values. We can use "Solver" to minimize the sum of all Squared
Residual values (cell E10) by adjusting the function parameters (cells
E12 through E15).
"Solver" is accessed from the "Data" ribbon bar in the "analysis"
section at the far right. Solver setup is quite straight forward: we
specify the Objective (and whether to solve for Minimum, Maximum,
or a specific value), and Variable Cells (the parameters that will be
changed). Also choose the option shown below for Select a Solving
Method. [Editor's Note: Excel 2007 "out of the box" does not have
this option in the dialog. See the "Addendum: Advanced Solve
Functionality Setup in Excel 2007]. When everything is ready, we
click the Solve button.
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
The variable cells have been changed to their optimal values.
Again, we can now use the coefficients to interpolate the yield rate.
The R2 is 0.9993 vs. 0.9966 from LINEST.
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Others
There are other Excel tools that we can use to project/interpolate
values, such as Analysis ToolPak or Microsoft Solver Foundation. I
will discuss these in future articles.
Addendum: Advanced Solve Functionality Setup in Excel 2007
Advanced solve functionality is available in Excel, it just needs to be
enabled through an Add-In. It is very easy to enable it in Excel 2007:
Click Excel Options
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Select Add-ins and click Go button
Select Solver Add-in and click OK button.
You can start using Solver!
Andrew Chan can be contacted at
[email protected].
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Nonlinear Interpolation With Excel To Construct U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve
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