G.D.
GOENKA WORLD SCHOOL
MATH EXPLORATION
Topic: Probability and Expectation
Candidate Name: Krishna Tayal
Candidate Number: 002279-0101
School: G.D. Goenka World School
Supervisor: Respected Vinod Arora Sir
Subject: Mathematics
Level: Standard Level
Maths IA
Probability and expectation
Rationale
From age of 14, I started to play cards games with my friends, it developed an interest to
win among my friends. So I thought to calculate the relationship between card games and
its probability to know my chances of winning or losing. The interesting fact about cards
games is that peoples wants to play more whether they win or lose. So from this ia I will
investigate why casino owners are always in profit? I am also going to deal with the usage of
probability and expectation in our daily life.
Introduction
Probability: how likely some event will happen.
Number of wayscan happen
Probability of an event happening=
Total number of outcomes
http://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/probability.html
The probability always lies between 0 to1, that is 0 ≤ P ( E ) ≤ 1
Random Variable: random variable are the set of all possible values of event.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/random-variables.html
Probability distribution:
Use:-
Let us consider a game with 2 dice
Red colour dice represents John
Green colour dice represents Bella
Sample space for 2 dice
IF a player scores less then 4, then the player loses $a. Represented by red colour
If a player scores between 5 to 10 then the player loses $b. Represented by yellow colour
If a players scores more then 10, then players wins $c. Represented by blue colour
Outcomes in Tabular form
J B J B J B J B J B J B
1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6
3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 6
4 1 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6
5 1 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 6
6 1 6 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6
Let X be a random variable for winning or losing.
X= -a,-b,c
Negative means player loosing
X P(X) X.p
-a 6 −6 a
36 36
-b 27 −27 b
36 36
C 3 3c
36 36
Total 1 −6 a 27 b 3 c
− +
36 36 36
−6 a 27 b 3 c
E(x)= − +
36 36 36
Case1
E(x)= 0 then the game is fair
Case2
E(X)>0
−6 a 27 b 3 c
− + >0
36 36 36
−6 a−27 b+ 3 c> 0
When expected value of X is greater than 0 then in an average player wins.
Case 3
E(X)<0
Player loses
When expected value is less than 0 then most of the time player loses.
The probability of winning is very low so that the reason behind why the casino owner are
always in profit.
Let’s consider card game with 52 cards
Teen Patti
Teen Patti is a three card game which is also known as flush. An international 52 cards pack
is used, cards ranking in the usual order from ace (high) down to two (low). Any reasonable
number of players can take part; it is probably best for about 4 to 7 players. Before playing it
is necessary to agree the value of the minimum stake (which I will call one unit). Everyone
places this minimum stake in the pot - a collection of money in the centre of the table, which
will be won by one of the players. The dealer deals out the cards one at a time until everyone
has three cards. The players then bet on who has the best three card hand. Each has the option
to look at their three-card hand before betting (playing seen) or to leave their cards face down
on the table (playing blind).
The ranking of hands
The ranking of the possible hands, from high to low, is as follows.
1. Trio - three cards of the same rank. Three aces are the best trio and three twos are the
lowest.
2. Straight run - three consecutive cards of the same suit. Ace can be used in the run A-2-3,
which is the highest straight run. Next comes A-K-Q, K-Q-J and so on down to 4-3-2,
which is the lowest. 2-A-K is not a valid run.
3. Normal run - three consecutive cards, not all of the same suit. A-2-3 is the best normal
run, then A-K-Q, K-Q-J and so on down to 4-3-2. 2-A-K is not valid.
4. Colour - any three cards of the same suit. When comparing two colours, compare the
highest card; if these are equal compare the second; if these are equal too, compare the
lowest. Thus the highest colour is A-K-J and the lowest is 5-3-2.
5. Pair - two cards of the same rank. Between two such hands, compare the pair first, then
the odd card if these are equal. The highest pair hand is therefore A-A-K and the lowest is
2-2-3.
6. High card - three cards that do not belong to any of the above types. Compare the highest
card first, then the second highest, then the lowest. The best hand of this type is A-K-J of
mixed suits, and the worst is 5-3-2.
Any hand of a higher type beats any hand of a lower type - for example the lowest run 4-3-2
beats the best colour A-K-J.
The rules for a show are as follows:
A show cannot occur until all but two players have dropped out.
If you are a blind player, the cost of a show is the current stake, paid into the pot,
irrespective of whether the other player is blind or seen. You do not look at your own
cards until after you have paid for the show.
If you are a seen player and the other player is blind, you are not allowed to demand a
show. The seen player can only continue betting or drop out.
If both players are seen, either player in turn may pay twice the current stake for a show.
In a show, both players' cards are exposed, and the player whose hand is higher ranking
wins the pot. If the hands are equal, the player who did not pay for the show wins the pot.
If all the players are seen, then at your turn, immediately after betting the minimum amount
(twice the current stake), you can ask the player who bet immediately before you for
a compromise. That player can accept or refuse the compromise.
If the compromise is accepted, the two players involved privately compare their cards, and
the player with the lower ranking cards must immediately fold. If they are equal, the
player who asked for the compromise must fold.
If the compromise is refused, the betting continues as usual with the player after the one
who asked for the compromise.
http://www.pagat.com/vying/teen_pathi.html
Suppose N no. of players plays a teen Patti game (one time show game) in casino.
To play the game each player has to pay $x to the dealer. The rule says that the player with
the high power card wins and gets $(n-1)x , & others won’t get anything back.
In this way
Total amount with the dealer = Nx
Amount with the winner = (n-1)x
Remaining amount goes to casino owner ¿ Nx−(N −1) x
¿ Nx−Nx+ x
= $x
So, for each games Casino is earning $x
Use of mathematics expectation in our daily life
Mathematics expectation is useful in our daily life it makes our life easier, from using
mathematics expectation we can easily take our decision and we can predict result to a
certain limit.
Example to prove it
Suppose I got a choice to choose the job. For the first job (job A) I would be paid $1000
which I have to do for a favour but I am sure about the job. Second (Job B) choice of job was
a real one for which I would be paid $6000 but I was not sure about the job. So to take
decision to choose the job we can use expectation method and predict the result. So I can
know which job is best for me.
The probability of job A is about 100% as for it I am sure and for job B I am not sure so its
probability is about 70% as I am not sure.
For job A $1000X1= $1000
For job B $6000X0.7= $4200
$4200 is far better than $1000. So, the best choice is for job B even if job B is not mine but I
have chosen a better option mathematically.
Conclusion
As per the research and my analysis the conclusion is that probability expectation is useful in
our daily life and games as we can easily predict the result of decision depending upon its
probability. If one person knows the theory of expected value and probability he or she can
easily tackle things with the help of theory.
