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FIVE of the BEST

Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................... 1
How to Accumulate Your Way To 100/1 Returns.............. 2

A FREE tipping Service making 565 Points Profit

per year... bring it on (and theres more)............................... 7
Fancy Winning 14 Out of Every 15 Bets?
Heres How........................................................................................11

The Each-Way Steal: How to Profit From Bets

the Bookies Hate............................................................................17
Football Betting Strategies: Boost Your Bank by
Betting at Half Time!!...................................................................29

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Introduction
I know how frustrating it can be that all the best systems
seem to cost a fortune just when you dont have the cash to
try them out. Thats why youll find here my favourite blueprints that are absolutely free of charge.

If you are new to betting (or even if you arent) some of the
blueprints can seem a little daunting so to accompany them
Ive done a video for each. I really hope they make everything clearer and Id love to hear how you get on with them.
You can access the videos here:

http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/payback-videos

And you can contact me at: [email protected]

All the best

Clive Keeling
Editor, What Really Wins Money

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How to Accumulate Your Way To

100/1 Returns...
By regular What Really Wins Money contributor
The Patriarch
Just imagine bagging a 100/1 winning accumulator! This
article will show you how.
But before we begin, answer me this question.

Would you be fairly confident about being able to pick two

winners at around 6/4?

And how about finding the winner if you were backing two
in the race, both around 3/1?

If that doesnt sound too impossible then we are in business

for my 100/1 idea.
I find it quite surprising, without doing the calculations,
that four winners at 6/4, 6/4, 3/1 and 3/1 (by no means
huge prices), give an accumulated dividend of exactly 99-1,
near enough to our 100/1 target.

Before looking at selection strategies, heres how we would

write out the bet at the bookies.
The selections can be in any order but Ill give an example
with the single horses winning their races..
First race horse A at 6/4 (approx).
Second race horse B at 6/4 (approx).
Third race horses C and D at 3/1 (approx).
Fourth race horses E and F at 3/1 (approx).
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Perm 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 4 one point win accumulators.

The point can be any stake you wish, but obviously even at
a 1 stake you are getting a return of around 100, depending on the accuracy of the betting forecast.

So even with a success rate of only 1 in 10, 15 or eve 1 in 20

bets , you are still making a good profit.
Heres another angle to the idea
Your four races dont all have to take place on the same
day. You can spread them over different days racing whenever a suitable race appears. In this case the staking is a
little different.

Well assume your four races are taking place on four different days, starting with a single selection at 6/4.
This time you stake your four points on it.

If it wins you put the total winnings of 10 points on the second 6/4 selection.
It wins too and your return now is 25 points.

For your third race with two selections at 3-1 you split the
25 points, putting half on each. One of them wins so we now
have 50 points.
Again we split our returns putting 25 points on each of the
final 3/1 selections. One of them wins so we now have our
return of 100 points.

If only it were always as simple and straightforward as that,

but at least it demonstrates how to operate the staking over
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different days. My suggested prices too are just a guide. You
dont have to stick exactly to 6/4 and 3/1 but I would try
not to stray too far from these prices.
How to make your selections using price gapping
Heres some pointers on making your selections.

Firstly, lets look at the single selections at 6/4 (approx).

1. Use The Racing Post betting forecast.

2. Look at non-handicap races with eight runners or less.
Dont use amateur riders races or selling races.
3. Favourite must be 11-8, 6-4 or 13-8.
4. That favourite becomes a selection only if the next
horse in the betting is forecast at 7-2 or bigger.
For the two horses per race we have slightly different rules.

1. Use The Racing Post betting forecast.

2. Look at all races with 10 runners or less.
3. Favourite must be 5-2 or bigger.
4. Our two selections must be 11-4, 3-1, 10-3 or 7-2. Both
must come from these prices.
5. These become selections only if the next in the betting
is forecast at 5-1 or bigger.
All we want now is one of these accas to come in, and its
party time!

Editor, Clive Keelings Note: Plenty to chew over there

from the Patriarch, a regular monthly contributor to What
Really Wins Money, and from my perspective, there is no
need to limit yourself to horse racing. Perhaps youve found
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a 6/4 equivalent price in the over/under 2.5 goals market,
the corners market perhaps, even the match odds market in
the Football markets.
Perhaps you can create a 6/4 equivalent return in the horse
racing place-only market on Betfair?

Think laterally here. I am sure that you can construct these

types of accumulators the Patriarch mentions if you broaden your net and look at less conventional markets as well as
traditional horse racing.
And heres a National Hunt( N.H.) system.

There will be no 100/1 prices with this old N.H. system, but
I reckon it will provide quite a few winners.
Running from November through until the end of May, its
called Winter And Spring, comes in three sections and
suggests either The Racing Post or Sporting Life for their
betting forecasts.

Although the Sporting Life Newspaper is no longer with

us, their betting forecast is still available on the internet at
www.sportinglife.com. Personally, Id go for The Racing Post
as it is more readily available. The Racing Post is available
online at www.racingpost.com.
Part One: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in
November until the end of May.
1. Type of race: all Handicap Chases.
2. Any course and distance winner with the following
form figures which must both come from the current
season. 01, 02, 03, 04 and 11.
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3. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, then select
the one at the shortest price in the betting forecast.
Part Two: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in
November until the end of May.
1. Type of race: Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases
with 14 or less runners.
2. Any horse which has won its last two races in the current season.
3. Must be first or second in the betting forecast.
4. No bet if forecast at odds-on.
Part Three: Operate from the end of the Flat Season
in November until the end of May.
1. Type of race: all non-handicap races.
2. A selection is any horse which was a beaten favourite last
time out and is now the forecast favourite for this race.
3. Do not bet on any horse that qualifies if it is having its
first run of the current season.
Weve had great feedback on this strategy, so do let us know
how you get on.

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A FREE tipping Service making 565

Points Profit per year... bring it on
(and theres more)
Another contribution by The Patriarch
I quite understand that tipsters need to charge for their services, of course they do but every so often someone doesnt
and who are we to argue! Here are a few free gems Ive
unearthed.
First up +302 points profit for 2011. No, its not from a tipping service that will charge you a few thousand quid for
such a return, nor is it from my new wonder system that Ill
be putting on the market for a similar sum!
The good news is that the service is absolutely free and
available to anyone with access to a computer.

No doubt many of you will be aware of it already, but for

those who havent yet come across it then perhaps you
should take a look now.

The Internet site is www.attheraces.com (abbreviated to

ATR). Go there, and amongst a host of features (some of
which Ill come back to later) youll find their main tipster
called Hugh Taylor the direct link is:
http://tinyurl.com/6klwv2m

I must make it clear that I have no vested interest in promoting this site, or Mr. Taylor, just a desire to pass on something that is free to everyone, and on past performance is
well worth your consideration.
Hugh Taylor started his tipping there in March 2009.
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Every month showed a profit till February 2010 when he
finally became human and had some losses. Despite some
more losing months every year has been profitable.

All the results can be checked on the site, and youll see that
some months made around 100 points while the average
is just under 50. He tips on average around two or three
horses a day with stakes of 1 to 5 points depending on his
idea of the strength of the bet.
Sometimes he backs each way. He usually goes for horses
in the middle to bigger price range so you can expect losing runs, but the consistency of his biggish-priced winners
seems to take care of these losers.
Its just an idea, but you might consider waiting for some
losers and then start a sequence of his bets with perhaps
a staking plan where you have a modest increase of stakes
until a winner appears.

302 points profit for the year is a pretty amazing achievement, and I only wish I could be confident enough to expect
it to continue. I hope it does, but one has to be realistic too.
And how about free Speed Ratings?
For anyone interested in Speed Ratings www.attheraces.
com offers an excellent feature dealing with these. Its the
work of Lawrence Taylor (any relation to Hugh?) and he
concentrates on six races per day, although he gives ratings
for all the others.
In these six races he not only gives the bare ratings for the
top four in the race but a
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full commentary with details of where they ran, and how,
their best rating, their last time out rating and also ratings
from previous races. He then comes up with a election for
the race. From these six selections he then gives his Nap for
the day, plus his Next Best.
For speed aficionados Id recommend a close look at the
Nap and the Next Best for the day.

There really is a wealth of information at www.attheraces.

com (and I use the word wealth deliberately for obvious
reasons), and Ill just mention one or two other features
that Ive found to be very useful. Theres an excellent Draw
Guide which analyses the effect of the draw on all our British and Irish courses.

The author is a very well-respected expert in that particular

area, and his advice on draw effect can make all the difference to a bet. Then there are the Stable Tours. Over 50 of
our top trainers, both flat and NH, give a full and detailed
appraisal of their most interesting runners and, where
possible, the running plans they have for them in the near
future. This really is inside information for possible bets.
The return of steamers and drifters.

And, wait for it, next we have Steamers and Drifters. Under
the heading of Market Movers on www.AtTheRaces.com
they list the Top 10 Steamers and the Top 10 Drifters of the
day.
At ATR the information is given in this form. The first column shows the Last Price. The next one the first Show
price. The next is the % movement and the final one is the
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ATR Index.

A little explanation is required here.

The Last price shown is the last recorded price before

races enter the Live show stage when odds tend to fluctuate more erratically. While this gives stability to the figures
Im not sure yet whether they will be more, or less accurate
than the fluctuating figures in the Live show stage.
The top steamer today as Im writing is last priced at 4-1.
The first Show price is 8-1, so the next column showing %
Movement is 50%.

The ATR Index figure is 809. This figure is arrived at, apparently, by a range of factors. There is the market share for
the horse, the change in the market share and the number
of bookmakers offering odds on the horse. The higher the
Index figure the better. The next highest Index figure today is, incidentally, only 317. These Index figures are also
displayed in Graph form which may be simpler for some
people to assimilate, and for the Drifters exactly the same
process is employed.
There is, however, one big difference.

The Steamers Graph swings to the left in green and the

Drifters one goes to the right in red.

The conundrum, though, remains. Every day we see, contrary to our expectations, steamers that lose and drifters
that win. To solve that puzzle really would be something.

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Fancy Winning 14 Out of Every 15 Bets?

Heres How...
In your monthly issue of What Really Wins Money you will
regularly find some great systems that our experts have
uncovered. This one by betting system creator, Tony Gibson
has had great feedback so give it a go and do let me know
how it works for you. Over to Tony.
Ive devised this system so that you only ever lose a bet if
the match finishes a 0-0 draw.
Now on average 1 in 12 matches finish 0-0 (already good
odds) but there is a way to lengthen those odds even further if you know what youre doing!

You see because you get to choose which matches to bet on,
you can decide which games you think are more likely to
involve at least one goal.
If you dont know much about football, dont worry, you
dont need to. To decide which matches you bet on you can
check the Football league tables at websites such as www.
soccerstats.com or www.soccerway.com, the tables show
you how many goals each team has scored and let in, and
just stay clear of any teams with low numbers in both.

Just using this method will lower the chance of the matches
you choose finishing 0-0 from 12-1 to at least 15-1 (14 from
15 winning bets).

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So how much can you win?
Obviously, the amount you win depends on the amount you
bet.
I have used this system myself for the past two years, and
my win rate has been 16 out of 17, my average win amount
has been 48.76 per bet, and my average loss amount has
been 240.00 per bet. So from an average of 17 bets I have
won 780.16 (48.76 x 16) and I have lost 240.00 (240.00
x1).
780.16 240 = 540.16 or 31.77 per bet.

And, of course, you can double your stake amount and win
twice as much. Your minimum stake amount you can bet is
just 2 per match, so if you want to start off small and build
it up, like I did, you can too.

So what do I need to start?

All you need to use this system is Internet access, and a betting account with www.betfair.com.
Typical betting on a football match would look something
like this:
Arsenal 1.82 1.84
Man Utd 3.95 4.00
Draw 3.30 3.35

The numbers on the left are the odds for backing the outcome.
The numbers on the right are the odds for laying the outcome.

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Now lets explain The System
On Betfair the odds are changing all the time, although unlike horse racing, with football betting odds before the kickoff, you will not see very much change.
That is until the kick-off, you see on every live match
you can bet in running, which means while the match is
being played.

Being able to lay outcomes as well as back, and being able

to bet in running are both key factors to our system.
Getting underway
We have chosen our match we feel will not finish 0-0.

First of all, we must LAY THE DRAW before the match kicks
off.

Say you have laid the draw to 100 @ 3.4, you would be liable to lose 240 if it finishes a draw, or 100 if either team
win.

In this case the match starts off slow as many tend to do.
With Newcastle having the best of it, they reap the rewards
of their efforts in the 61st minute, the odds will now quickly
change:
Newcastle 1.26 1.28
Middlesboro 14.00 15.00
Draw 6.40 6.60

OK, you are now ready to execute the system. You stand to
lose 240 if Middlesboro equalise, but if you now back the
draw @ 6.4 just enough to cover your losses if the game
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does finish a draw, then you will end up with a very nice
free bet.
To work out what you need to do exactly to cover your
losses you must use this simple equation:

Your liability divided by back odds (-1) = Stake amount or,

240 divided by 5.4 (6.4 -1) = 44.44

So if you now back the draw at the odds of 6.4 with a stake
of 44.44, you will be in this position:
Newc win = 55.55 (100 44.44)
Midd win = 55.55 (100 44.44)
Draw = 0.00

OK At this stage you are not risking losing anything, you

can only gain 55.55 if Newcastle or Middlesboro win, and
with the odds now 1.26 for Newcastle to win, your chances
become very high.

So the job is done, sit back, relax and wait for the final whistle to blow. Your account will be credited with your winnings 10 minutes after the match has finished.
Every match will be different, there are a number of factors
involved which affect the odds for the draw which include:
1/ The time of the first goal.
This is the main factor; the later the first goal is scored the
better for us. Occasionally, you may choose a match where
the first goal comes within 15 minutes, and therefore the
odds for the draw will go up only slightly, when this happens you should still take the
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FREE BET there and then, although it may mean smaller
winnings you still have a free bet on a leading team. In other
matches, however, where the first goal is scored towards
the end, your risk-free profit can be as high as 90 and with
only a few minutes remaining almost certain winnings.
2/ The team that scores the first goal.
You want the favourite team to be the one to score first for
maximum profit.
3/ How the match is looking.
You want the team who has most deserved to score, to go
on and score the first goal; this will make the chance of a
draw to be a much bigger price.
So for the best result you want:

The first goal to be scored by the favourite team who have

played like they deserve to be in front during the second
half, there is a lot more chance of this scenario than the
other way around. This makes everything on your side and
why this system is so successful.

It is important to know when the first goal has been scored

so that you can take your free bet before the team who are
now behind have a chance to equalise. The best way of doing this is to watch the match live on SKY TV.
You can of course listen to matches covered on radio or
watch teletext. There are Internet sites which also give live
updates on matches.

You will of course have losing matches but the more form
you can apply to your picks, the less chance you will have of
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losing.

Longest winning runs have been 47 and losing runs only

two. The worst losing month I ever had was four losing
matches from 25.

Note from WRMM editor Clive Keeling: Tony revisits the

lay the draw theory and I would concur with him that the
better your research, the better able you are to ensure that
the correct team scores first.

Mentioned elsewhere, www.soccerstats.com and www.

betdevil.com are my two websites to use for research. www.
futbol.com is the website I use to keep track of score lines.

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The Each-Way Steal: How to Profit From

Bets the Bookies Hate
By the Statman
The Statman is a regular contributor to the monthly newsletters and his speciality? Stats of course. He has an uncanny knack of uncovering statistics from the past 10 years
which we can profit from in the future. In this article the
Statman focuses on a favourite bet of mine, the Each Way
bet. Over to the Statman.
The each-way bet is one of those types of bets that the
bookies hate. Why do they hate it? Because the odds are
stacked in the punters favour!

By applying some statistical analysis to the each-way bet we

can start to see some clear angles and advantages that will
have the bookies running scared.
The best place to start is to fully understand the each-way
bet and rules that the bookies and exchanges apply to them.
The rules as applied by the bookies to each-way bets are
different to those that are applied by the betting exchanges.

The bookies each-way bet

The each-way bet is effectively two bets in one which is why
a 5 each-way bet costs 10, thats two 5 bets.
The first bet is a straight win bet and pays out if the horse
wins. The second bet is on the horse being placed, and the
number of places is directly related to the number of runners in the race.
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However, because the chances of the horse being placed
are higher than the chance of the horse winning, the bookies will only pay out a fraction of the starting price. This
is dependent upon whether the race is a handicap or nonhandicap race and also the number of runners. This sounds
quite complicated but the rules are summarised here:
Win only, no each-way bets available on races with 4 or
less runners
1/4 of the odds on the first two places for races with 5
to 7 runners
1/5 of the odds on the first three places for non-handicap races of 8 or more runners
1/5 of the odds on the first three places for handicap
races with 8 to 11 runners
1/4 of the odds on the first three places for handicap
races with 12 to 15 runners
1/4 of the odds on the first four places for handicap
races with 16 or more runners

It is important to note that the number of runners are those

that go to post and not the number of runners declared.

So if there are 8 declared runners but only 7 go to post,

because 1 runner is withdrawn, then the rule that applies to
the each-way bet will change, from 1/5 of the odds for the
first three places to 1/4 of the odds to two places. So you
have to be aware of this as it could have a big effect on the
outcome of the race as regards the each-way bet.
The exchanges each-way bet
On the betting exchanges (such as www.betfair.com), the
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two parts of the each-way bet have to be placed separately.
There are several advantages to this.

Firstly, you do not have to place the same amount on the

win portion as on the place portion, which means that the
potential profit can be adjusted according to the prices on
offer.

Secondly, you dont have to place the win portion of the bet,
which again means that you can maximise profits, particularly if your selections get placed more often than they win.
Unlike the bookies there are no fractions of the odds on the
place bets, the prices are as offered on the exchange. These
are the number of places offered on place bets on the exchanges:
No place market for races with 3 or less runners
First two places for races with 4 to 7 runners
First three places for races with 8 to 15 runners
First three places for non-handicap races with 16 or
more runners
First four places for handicap races with 16 or more
runners.

Unlike the bookies, the number of runners are the number

of declared runners and not the number of runners that
go to post, so a horse being withdrawn does not affect the
number of places offered in the market, unless the number
of non-runners reduces the number of runners to 2 when
the place market is withdrawn and all bets are refunded.
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Which races to bet on
Runners Number of Probability of
winning
of being
places
being placed
4 2 50%
5 2 40%
6 2 33%
7 2 29%
8 3 38%
9 3 33%
10 3 30%
11 3 27%
12 3 25%
13 3 23%
14 3 21%
15 3 20%
16 4 25%
17 4 24%
18 4 22%

If we select at random any horse from a race, what are the

chances of picking a horse that is going to be placed?
Which races have the odds stacked in our favour?

As we can see from the table, picking any horse at random

from a 5-runner race gives us a 40% chance of picking a
horse that is going to finish in the top two. Not bad odds to
start off with.

Bear in mind that there is only a place market for 4-runner

races on the betting exchanges; bookies will not offer eachway bets on 4-runner races.
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The races that offer the best odds of randomly picking a
horse that will place is in the favour of the punter in 46
and 89-runner races so these will be the races that well
concentrate on.

As I have already said, the bookies only pay out on a fraction

of the starting price odds (or the early prices) and the betting
exchanges have the prices set by the layers. My research has
shown that the prices for the place bets on the exchanges do
closely mirror the fractions of the win market prices as set
out in the bookies each-way terms. This isnt always the case
but its close enough to use the bookies terms when calculating the return for a horse being placed on the exchanges.
The return for a place
The place part of the each-way bet only pays out a fraction
of the odds, and if the horse is only placed then the win part
becomes a losing bet. We then have to be mindful of the
odds that we back each way at.
The table below shows us the profit for a 1-point each-way
bet (costing 2 points), showing both win and place profits.
Odds 1/4 Odds 1/5 Odds

Win Place Win Place
1/1(evens) 1.25
-0.75
1.2
-0.8
2/1 2.5 -0.5 2.4 -0.6
3/1 3.75 -0.25 3.6 -0.4
4/1
5 0 4.8 -0.2
5/1 6.25 0.25 6 0
6/1 7.5 0.5 7.2 0.2
7/1 8.75 0.75 8.4 0.4
8/1 10 1 9.6 0.6
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9/1 11.25 1.25 10.8 0.8
10/1 12.5 1.5 12 1
11/1 13.75 1.75 13.2 1.2
12/1 15 2 14.4 1.4

We see that any price below 4/1 for 46 runner races

(where the odds fraction for the place payout is 1/4) or 5/1
for 89 runner races, is really not going to be a cost-effective bet because even if the horse does get placed we still
make a loss.
So we now know which races we are interested in and the
minimum odds that we will consider when placing our
each-way bet. Next we need to turn to the statistics to see if
we can get an edge in this market.
How the stats can give you the each-way edge
So we are looking for horses in 46 runner races with odds
of 4/1 or greater and 89 runner races with odds of 5/1 or
greater.
Logic tells us that we are not to back the outside favourites
in these races, although if they do get placed or even win
then the returns could be handsome.
The strike rate though is very low, resulting in long-term
loss and long losing runs. With that in mind we want to be
focusing on the first three in the betting market.
What, then, are the winning and place strike rates for the
first 3 in the betting market that meet the odds requirements for the races in question?
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The winning and place strike rates for the first 3 in the
betting market that meet the odds requirements for the
races in question
No
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
of Fav Fav Fav Fav Fav Fav
Runners
Win Place Win Place Win Place

4 16% 49% 12% 37%

5 15% 49% 12% 35%
6 17% 33% 17% 44% 14% 33%
8 17% 50% 17% 51% 14% 47%
9 19% 51% 15% 47% 14% 45%

This shows us the horses we are interested in that are going

to give us the best possible return for our money, i.e. those
where almost half of all selections will be placed.
Remember, because we are backing at odds of 4/1 or 5/1 or
greater, then of those selections that get placed we will be
making a profit or at very worse breaking even.
The next step is to look at these horses and try and gauge
how profitable they are going to be. This throws up an
interesting point: In 89 runner races it is quite possible
that we could be in a position where we are backing 2 or 3
horses in the same race.

Here are the profits using the bookies terms, so that includes win and place bets, each bet is 1 point each-way with
a total cost of 2 points.
No
1st
2nd
3rd
of Runners
Favourite Favourite Favourite
4 23.88
5 37.63
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6 35.75
8 -10 -118 -475.2
9 -2 -359.6 -716
We are indeed on the right track.

Already we are showing a profit by blindly backing all second favourites each-way in 4, 5 and 6-runner races where
the odds are 4/1 or greater. The 8 and 9-runner races however look as though some form of filtering will have to be
applied in order to turn a profit.
Before looking at filtering the races to improve profitability I just want to show you the same results if the betting
exchanges are used and ONLY betting in the place market.

Here, then, the win market is going to be ignored. This is a

great advantage that exchanges such as www.betfair.com
offer.
No of
1st
2nd
3rd
Runners Favourite Favourite Favourite
4 31.88
5 76.63
6 -7.25
8 -3 56 35.8
9 -11 -79.1 -214

We can see here, that by using just the place- only market
on the exchanges improves the profitability.
However, these figures are only estimated based on the
recorded starting price of each selection and NOT on the
actual prices from the exchange place market.
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The filters and the loophole
There are basically two principles to use when looking
at filters; the first is to look for some advantage that our
selection may have over its rivals that will increase the win
or place strike rate and increase profits. Some elements
of form analysis are the obvious route here; however, that
can complicate things and can also mean that considerable
extra work needs to be done in order to find the horses that
qualify.
Another method of spotting when a horse has an advantage
over its rivals is by using the prices in the live markets.

For our Each-Way Steal, we would want a second favourite

that has, say, half the odds of the third favourite or a third favourite with half the odds of the fourth favourite. When our
selection has half the odds of its next closest rival, we could
assume that it has twice the chance of winning, and twice
the chance of being placed. But again, this does require following the live market as well as an extra time commitment.
The second principle that I use when filtering selections is
to select races where the odds of our selections are artificially high.

What I mean here is that the odds being offered by the

bookies are higher than the odds of the horse winning or
placing. In this scenario our selection would be a value bet
and in the long term would produce far better profits.

This second principle is the one that Im going to focus on

primarily because it also exploits a loophole in the eachway bet. This loophole is based around the way the starting
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prices, and live prices offered by the bookies are calculated.
The starting prices are calculated principally using the
amount of money bet on each horse in the WIN market,
the odds for the place market are a fraction of the odds for
the win market, with the obvious exception of the betting
exchanges.

When the race has a short-priced favourite, at even money

or shorter, the market and the money is saying that this
horse is going to win the race, and because the chances of it
winning are very high and rightly so at such short prices, it
pushes the prices of the other horses out.
That has the effect of increasing the prices of the second
and third favourites by as much as 10%, more in some
cases. However, because we are backing each-way we dont
need our horse to win to make a profit we only need it to
place. Because the place price is based on the win market
we have a situation where we have far higher prices in the
place market than warranted and thus an excellent value in
the each-way bet.

Selecting only those races where the favourite is evens or

shorter (if you are using betting exchanges such as www.
betfair.com, then evens is represented as 2.00) produces
the following profits (again these are 1 point each-way bets
costing a total of 2 points).

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No of
2nd
3rd
Runners Favourite Favourite
4 27.125
5 33.875
6 142.625
8 -2.2 179.8
9 -116.5 -69.5

Notice here we can no longer back any favourites as they

are all now too short a price to back each-way. You can see
that by concentrating on races that have short-priced favourite gives us a definite advantage with the each-way bet
against the high street bookie.

This is even more pronounced if you look at just placing the

bet on the exchanges in the place market only.
These bets are just 1 point to place.

These figures are approximations based on the starting

prices and are not based on the actual prices in the place
market on the exchanges.
No of
2nd
3rd
Runners Favourite Favourite
4 31.125
5 79.875
6 83.625
8 104.8 235.3
9 13 129.5

The final step is to check that we can secure a long-term

profit from The Each-Way Steal.
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The table below shows the break down by year for our selections based on starting prices and 1 point each-way bets.
Number of Runners
Year
4 5 6 8 9
Total

2000 1.75 24.875 2.875 -45.3 -6.8 -22.60

2001 48.5 -12.875 21.125
18.8 -19.3 56.25
2002 -26.5 8.625
-13 14.9 -50.4 -66.38
2003 0 33.75 46.25 3.9 -51 32.90
2004 -5 7.75 31.875 57.3 -35.7 56.23
2005 8.25 14.625 15.875 60.5 51.2 150.45
2006 7.875
-6.5 -0.375
5.8 38.4 45.20
2007 -17.5 15.625 -9.125 32.5 -29.7 -8.20
2008 13.25 -27.875
16 -46.4 -50.5 -95.53
-7.75 -8.375 7.375 35.5 0.6 27.35
2009
2010 4.25 -15.75 23.75 40.1 -32.8 19.55

Finally, for those that are interested in the place markets on

the betting exchanges, here is a comparison for place bets
only.
Number of Runners
Year
4 5 6 8 9 Total
2000 -2.75 14.38 -1.63 -2.30 18.20 25.90
2001 12.50 5.13 14.63 25.80 14.20 72.25
2002 -6.50 -4.38 6.50 32.90 8.10 36.63
2003 9.00 26.75
7.25 30.90
7.00 80.90
2004 1.50 13.25 14.38 60.80 5.80 95.73
2005 10.25 5.13 7.88 36.50 36.20 95.95
2006 8.38 0.00 11.63 12.80 48.40 81.20
2007 -6.50 1.13 -0.13 33.50 -10.70
17.30
2008 2.75 9.13 -1.00 25.60 10.50 46.98
2009 2.25 5.63 23.38
55.00
3.60 89.85
2010 0.25 3.75 0.75 28.60
1.20 34.55
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Football Betting Strategies:

Boost Your Bank by Betting at

Half Time!!
Youve all heard the clich Its a game of 2 halves, well
now you can exploit this fact for profit!

Start betting in the 2nd half of certain matches! Treat the

2nd half as a match in and of itself.

The first half, therefore, becomes the launch pad for your
betting decisions.

Let me explain what I mean by way of 2 very good examples.

Cast your mind back to the 15th August 2011, and a match
between Manchester City and Swansea City...
Manchester City are rightly clear favourites, but lets see
what the score is at half-time: 0-0

This is a big surprise. Now if your research had told you

that Manchester City are likely winners, and there are likely
to be goals in this match too and if you had confidence in
that research, why not enter the betting markets at halftime? (And to be fair, if you had been watching this match
youd have found the difference in class between the two
teams glaringly obvious.)
The benefits are clear.

If you fancied Manchester City to win, you would be getting

better odds at half-time in in-play markets such as those at
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www.bet365.com and on betting exchanges like www.betfair.com. Why are the odds on Manchester City bigger than
they were pre match? Quite simply because in-play markets
react to occurrences (or in this case, non-occurrences).

Further, there are a multitude of other markets that will be

offering bigger odds (than pre match). Such markets include the over/under 2.5 goals markets, and for layers, how
about laying the 0-0 at odds far better than pre match? (layers like to see low odds, backers like to see high odds.)
The ideal scoreline to exploit at half-time is the 0-0 but as
you will see with other examples later in the article, we can
be flexible.
Lets look at a few examples of 2nd half betting.
EXAMPLE 1
8:00 FT Braga
3 : 2 Gil Vicente MC
Nuno Gomes 61
Helder Barbosa 72
89 Claudio
Nuno Gomes 90

In this Portuguese league match, Braga are 1.52 favourites

against newly-promoted Gil Vicente. Braga scored 2 goals
against the bottom 6 sides at home last season. Gil Vicente
conceded 2 goals against Braga and 3 against Porto (2 sides
in the top 3 last season, with Braga 4th last season).
The 0-0 at half-time was therefore a shock... and, inevitably,
in the second half the goals arrived.
Possible profit-making areas? Match odds back Braga,
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lay the draw.

Goals markets back over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals.

Correct score market lay 0-0.

EXAMPLE 2
19:00 FT Elfsborg 1 : 3 Gais h2h
49 Jesper Floren
54 Eric Bassombeng
65 Wanderson Do Carmo
Niklas Hult 73

Elfsborg are 1.33 at home. It is 0-0 at half-time. My conclusions for this match are repeated here verbatim:
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS standout 90%
overs stats for Elfsborg and they are likely to score 2 minimum at home. similarly, Gais have only failed to score in
three matches this season. Ergo over 2.5 goals in the bag
already? Gais are one of those nightmare trading teams
why? They are so fecking inconsistent!!
And the goals flowed in during the 2nd half albeit not for
the team I expected. Still, a goals bet at half-time, at value
odds, would have been successful.

EXAMPLE 3
13:30 FT Dundee United 0 : 1 Rangers MC
61 Kyle Lafferty

In this match, Rangers were priced at 1.59 away from home

against a team they had scored 4-3-4-2 goals against in
their last 4 head to heads. My conclusions:
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CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS good defensive record for Rangers so early and an emphatic Celtic win
already makes this 1.59 of some appeal. Expect early tight
exchanges here and the prospect of a concerted period of
0-0 before a most likely Rangers first goal.

The match was 0-0 at half-time. And Dundee United had a

man sent off. Lay Dundee United at half-time. Back Rangers
to win the 2nd half.

Heres another half-time score line we can exploit, in this

example there is a general tendency for one of the teams
to be a strong market leader. However, the half-time result
does not quite reflect the apparent dominance suggested by
the odds:
EXAMPLE 4
20:45 FT Derry City
2 : 2 Drogheda
4 Brian Gannon
38 Gavin Brennan
Gareth McGlynn 74
Robert Duggan (og) 88

Background Derry are 1.14 favourites to win this match.

Extremely strong favourites. However, this is not reflected
in the half-time scoreline which sees outsiders Drogheda
0-2 up away from home. Now is the time to back a comeback by the 1.14 favourites.
What can we do?

Back Derry at odds much better than the pre-match odds

of 1.14 (we would have lost on this occasion as Derry did
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not win the match but would have backed a very short odds
team at far greater odds).
Lay Drogheda in the match odds at 0-2 at odds much lower
than were available pre match.
Lay 0-2 scoreline in the Correct Score Market.

Bottom line
Turn your football betting into 2nd half betting. Here are
the advantages:

The odds in all markets will offer greater value (using

in-play facilities at bookmakers such as www.bet365.
com and www.betfair.com) because the expected result
has not materialised.
Backers can back their original fancies at better odds.
Layers can lay markets at lower odds (and remember
betting exchange layers want low odds when they lay).
There will be greater urgency in the 2nd half for a fancied team to redress the balance. Half-time team talks
can work wonders (ask Benitez in THAT Champions
League Final).

So which matches do you choose?

Quite simply, let the bookmakers do the work for you. Focus
on matches where one teams odds indicate they are the hot
favourites. I normally focus on matches where one team is
1.6 odds or over.
And wait until half-time.

If what was expected has not occurred by half-time,

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consider using in-play bookmakers or betting exchanges
like Betfair, and utilise the value odds available for both
backers and layers.

I hope you found something here to whet your appetite. Do

let me know which one (or ones!) you decide to try out I
look forward to hearing about your successes.
And dont forget to check out the accompanying videos for
each of these articles. They can help you implement the
strategies immediately.
You can access the videos here:

http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/payback-videos

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