Multiple Sclerosis
Society of Canada
London-Grand Bend
Bicycle Tour
Case Analysis
GROUP 12
Ankit Anand (1511308)
Avinash Kumar (1511314)
Chetan Dixit (1511316)
Debraj Mandal (1511318)
Gaurav Prasad (1511322)
Shubham Shukla (1511359)
London-Grand Bend Bicycle
Tour
SUMMARY PLOT SYNOPSIS
Key Characters
Lory Anne Mcnulty, Sr. Manager
Sarah Mann, Supervisor of funraising event
Multiple Sclerosis is a one the most common and unpredictable diseases of the central
nervous system. Almost 2.5 million people around the world is estimated to be affected by it.
Though it is a progressive disease, it is curable with medical treatment. The non-profit
Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada provided a wide range of educational programs, client
services and medical research support for Canadians with MS. A major event in the form of
bicycle tour between London and Grand Bend, Ontario was organized for fundraising from
July 24 and 25. Problem arose when it was found out 4 weeks before that the road
construction would not be completed before the event. Mcnulty have to check whether they
would be able to find a safe, paved route.
On the 1st day, participants started that days approximately 85 km of cycling at the beaches
of Lake Huron & made their way to The University of Western Ontario in London. The next
morning, the bicyclists continued the remaining 65 km returning to Grand Bend. A minimum
of $200 was expected to be raised by each participant at an expense rate of 45 per cent and
total goal of $ 260,000 in donations.
A route planning schedule was established in which various tasks and their respective
completion time was specified. The rest of the team too had to focus on food, non-food
sponsorship and event marketing for the tour.
There was a threat of snow and MS walk event, after passing of which the two tentative
routes were investigated. After investigation, it was found out that both the routes were
feasible as none of the bridges were washed away. When it came to light that there were
many construction sites on those routes, Mann had to revise and tested the feasibility of new
routes. The road department was again contacted before decision to choose.
There was variation in time expected to be spend by Mann with each road department and
county councils as high uncertainty was involved in finalizing the tentative routes.
Application for permit requires 4-7 days. Mann spends about 1 day to gather the requests for
the certificates before sending the requests to national office.
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Mann contacted each of the regional service providers after obtaining permits 2 hospitals, 2
ambulance providers, 6 police stations and 4 fire stations. This task was expected to take
between 5-8 days.
Around 10 checkpoints along 150 km was expected. It took around 8-15 days by Mann to
finish the work. The kilometer description also took about 1 day for determination. Then the
road conditions were verified & a list of locations with emergency phone nos. and detailed
map were created. Copies of the map would be distributed on the morning of the event.
But events took a turn when the news of actual road conditions that were still unfinished
came. The event was a major one and under no circumstances can it be cancelled. A plan
has to be decided taking into account overtime, staff morale and obviously a hazard-free,
safe route for the bicycle tour.
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NETWORK DIAGRAM FOR BICYCLE ROUTE PLANNING
Activi
ty
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
Task name
Drive tentative routes
Ask the roads departments for information about the tentative route
Ask the country councils for info about the tentative route
Approach country councils for permits
Send requests for the insurance certificate to the Toronto national office
Obtain the permits from the country councils
Contact all emergency services
Set the checkpoints and estimate the kilometer markings
Determine kilometer descriptions
Create list of locations associated with the emergency phone numbers
Verify road conditions
Draw detailed maps with checkpoints and prepare route description
Prepare list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers
Present the routes to the committee and Voyageur staff
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O
P
Q
R
S
Print internal copy of map and route descriptions
Print list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers
Distribute internal maps, route description and emergency phone numbers to staff
and volunteers
Print maps and route description for cyclists
Distribute maps and route description to cyclists
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COMPLETION TIME USING OPTIMISTIC, MOST LIKELY AND PESSIMISTIC
TIMES
The expected duration i.e. mean for each of the tasks using the optimistic, most likely and
pessimistic times has been calculated using the formula
Expected duration () = (Optimistic Time + 4*Most Likely Time + Pessimistic Time) /
6
The variance i.e. mean for each of the tasks using the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic
times has been calculated using the formula
Variance (2) = ((Pessimistic Time Optimistic Time)/6)2
Task name
Drive tentative routes
Ask the roads departments for
information about the tentative
route
Ask the country councils for info
about the tentative route
Approach country councils for
permits
Send requests for the insurance
certificate to the Toronto national
office
Obtain the permits from the
country councils
Contact all emergency services
Set the checkpoints and estimate
the kilometer markings
Determine kilometer descriptions
Create list of locations associated
with the emergency phone
numbers
Optimis
tic
0.8
Most
Likely
2
Pessimis
tic
3
Expected
duration
1.97
Varianc
e
0.13
20
40
21.50
26.69
15
20
14.83
3.36
1.17
0.03
0.83
0.03
4
5
5
7
7
8
5.17
6.83
0.25
0.25
8
1
11
1
15
2
11.17
1.17
1.36
0.03
0.8
1.13
0.04
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Verify road conditions
Draw detailed maps with
checkpoints and prepare route
description
Prepare list of locations associated
with emergency phone numbers
Present the routes to the
committee and Voyageur staff
Print internal copy of map and
route descriptions
Print list of locations associated
with emergency phone numbers
Distribute internal maps, route
descripton and emergency phone
numbers to staff and volunteers
Print maps and route description
for cyclists
Distribute maps and route
description to cyclists
0.7
0.95
0.00
1.5
2.5
2.00
0.03
0.4
0.5
0.57
0.01
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
0.00
0.5
0.5
0.58
0.01
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
0.00
1.17
0.03
0.5
0.5
0.58
0.01
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.45
0.00
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POSSIBLE PATHS IN THE NETWORK AND CRITICAL PATH
Expected
duration
Possible paths
Varianc
e
1. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-J-M-P-Q-R-S
52.63
28.83
2. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-J-M-P-Q-R-S
31.13
2.14
3. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S
54.67
28.85
4. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S
33.17
2.15
5. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-M-P-Q-R-S
54.45
28.82
6. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-M-P-Q-R-S
32.95
2.13
7. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-N-O-Q-R-S
54.68
28.85
8. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-N-O-Q-R-S
33.18
2.15
9. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-N-O-Q-R-S
54.47
28.82
10. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-N-O-Q-R-S
32.97
2.13
S.D
5.36961
6
1.46230
4
5.37106
4
1.46761
3
5.36871
1
1.45897
6
5.37078
1.46657
2
5.36842
6
1.45792
9
For the critical path (A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S), the different time periods we have
obtained are:
Most likely time: 52.6 days
Optimistic time: 32.6 days
Pessimistic time: 85.1 days
As stated above, completion of route planning tasks will take a total of 53 days at an average,
which is lesser than 59 days mentioned in the case. Also optimistic time of 33 days is
calculated by taking the earliest finish period for each of the tasks required in the route
planning activity. It is still more than 23 days, which is the number of days required in the start
of bicycle tour. Thus, it is not possible to finish the tasks before the start of the tour. We
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therefore wither need to change the cycling route or alter the manpower involved in the
planning activities.
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MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN TASK DURATION TIMES
Establishing contingency plans can help managing the uncertainties in task-duration time.
Management of idle-time is a critical factor in managing uncertainties. Control mechanism
and monitoring leads can manage slack. We can also manage uncertainties by managing
deliverables instead of directly managing the task.
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CRITICAL PATH STRATEGIES TO COMPLETE ROUTE PLANNING BY 24
JULY
MSC should minimize the time of activities that are less prior so that it may become able to
finish the route planning before 24 July. Activities B and C can be done simultaneously as
these activities take minimum expected time of 9 days. So these activities can be crashed
from route planning. Doing so will reduce the time of the completion of task and MSC can
focus on the critical path activities of the route planning activities.
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