Probability
in
a
nutshell
Definition
Probability
Rules
Rule
1:
The
probability
of
any
event
will
always
be
a
number
from
zero
to
one.
Rule
2:
When
an
event
cannot
occur,
the
probability
will
be
zero.
Rule
3:
When
an
event
is
certain
to
occur,
the
probability
is
1.
Rule
4:
The
sum
of
the
probabilities
of
all
of
the
outcomes
in
the
sample
space
is
1.
Rule
5:
The
probability
that
an
event
will
not
occur
is
equal
to
1
minus
the
probability
that
the
event
will
occur.
Law
of
Large
Numbers
Def
Combinations
A
combination
is
a
selection
of
objects
without
regard
to
the
order
in
which
they
are
selected.
An
arrangement
of
n
distinct
objects
in
a
specific
order
is
called
a
permutation.
ABC
BAC
CAB
ACB
BCA
CBA
Ejemplos
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
In
mathematics,
a
variable
can
assume
different
values.
Variables
whose
values
are
due
to
chance
are
called
random
variables.
A
probability
distribution
consists
of
the
values
of
a
random
variable
and
their
corresponding
probabilities.
There
are
two
kinds
of
probability
distributions.
They
are
discrete
and
continuous.
A
discrete
variable
has
a
countable
number
of
values
(countable
means
values
of
zero,
one,
two,
three,
etc.).
A
continuous
variable
has
an
infinite
number
of
values
between
any
two
values.
Continuous
variables
are
measured.
The
Mean
and
Standard
Deviation
Suppose
you
roll
a
die
many
times
and
record
the
number
of
threes
you
obtain.
Is
it
possible
to
predict
ahead
of
time
the
average
number
of
threes
you
will
obtain?
The
answer
is
Yes.
It
is
called
expected
value
or
the
mean
of
a
binomial
distribution.
This
mean
can
be
found
by
using
the
formula
mean
()
14
np
where
n
is
the
number
of
times
the
experiment
is
repeated
and
p
is
the
probability
of
a
success.
The
symbol
for
the
mean
is
the
Greek
letter
(mu).
Statisticians
are
not
only
interested
in
the
average
of
the
outcomes
of
a
probability
experiment
but
also
in
how
the
results
of
a
probability
experiment
vary
from
trial
to
trial.
Suppose
we
roll
a
die
180
times
and
record
the
number
of
threes
obtained.
We
know
that
we
would
expect
to
get
about
30
threes.
Now
what
if
the
experiment
was
repeated
again
and
again?
In
this
case,
the
number
of
threes
obtained
each
time
would
not
always
be
30
but
would
vary
about
the
mean
of
30.
For
example,
we
might
get
28
threes
one
time
and
34
threes
the
next
time,
etc.
How
can
this
variability
be
explained?
Statisticians
use
a
measure
called
the
standard
deviation.
When
the
standard
deviation
of
a
variable
is
large,
the
individual
values
of
the
variable
are
spread
out
from
the
mean
of
the
distribution.
When
the
standard
deviation
of
a
variable
is
small,
the
individual
values
of
the
variable
are
close
to
the
mean.
Recall
that
for
a
probability
experiment
to
be
binomial,
two
outcomes
are
necessary.
But
if
each
trial
of
a
probability
experiment
has
more
than
two
outcomes,
a
distribution
that
can
be
used
to
describe
the
experiment
is
called
a
multinomial
distribution.
The
Hypergeometric
Distribution
When
a
probability
experiment
has
two
outcomes
and
the
items
are
selected
without
replacement,
the
hypergeometric
distribution
can
be
used
to
compute
the
probabilities.
The
Geometric
Distribution
Suppose
you
flip
a
coin
several
times.
What
is
the
probability
that
the
first
head
appears
on
the
third
toss?
In
order
to
answer
this
question
and
other
similar
probability
questions,
the
geometric
distribution
can
be
used.
The
Poisson
Distribution
Another
commonly
used
discrete
distribution
is
the
Poisson
distribution
(named
after
Simeon
D.
Poisson,
17811840).
This
distribution
is
used
when
the
variable
occurs
over
a
period
of
time,
volume,
area,
etc.
For
example,
it
can
be
used
to
describe
the
arrivals
of
airplanes
at
an
airport,
the
number
of
phone
calls
per
hour
for
a
911
operator,
the
density
of
a
certain
species
of
plants
over
a
geographic
region,
or
the
number
of
white
blood
cells
on
a
fixed
area.
The
Normal
Distribution
One
of
the
most
often
used
continuous
probability
distributions
is
called
the
normal
probability
distribution.
1. It
is
bell-shaped.
2. The
mean,
median,
and
mode
are
at
the
center
of
the
distribution.
3. It
is
symmetric
about
the
mean.
(This
means
that
it
is
a
reflection
of
itself
if
a
mean
was
placed
at
the
center.)
4. It
is
continuous;
i.e.,
there
are
no
gaps.
5. It
never
touches
the
x
axis.
6. The
total
area
under
the
curve
is
1
or
100%.
7. About
0.68
or
68%
of
the
area
under
the
curve
falls
within
one
standard
deviation
on
either
side
of
the
mean.
(Recall
that
is
the
symbol
for
the
mean
and
is
the
symbol
for
the
standard
deviation.)
About
0.95
or
95%
of
the
area
under
the
curve
falls
within
two
standard
deviations
of
the
mean.
About
1.00
or
100%
of
the
area
falls
within
three
standard
deviations
of
the
mean.
(Note:
It
is
somewhat
less
than
100%,
but
for
simplicity,
100%
will
be
used
here.)
The
Standard
Normal
Distribution
The
normal
distribution
can
be
used
as
a
model
to
solve
many
problems
about
variables
that
are
approximately
normally
distributed.
Since
each
variable
has
its
own
mean
and
standard
deviation,
statisticians
use
what
is
called
the
standard
normal
distribution
to
solve
the
problems.
The
standard
normal
distribution
has
all
the
properties
of
a
normal
dis-
tribution,
but
the
mean
is
zero
and
the
standard
deviation
is
one.
The
Monte
Carlo
Method
The
Monte
Carlo
Method
of
simulation
uses
random
numbers.
The
steps
are
Step
1:
Step
2:
Step
3:
Step
4:
Step
5:
Step
6:
List
all
possible
outcomes
of
the
experiment.
Determine
the
probability
of
each
outcome.
Set
up
a
correspondence
between
the
outcomes
of
the
experiment
and
random
numbers.
Generate
the
random
numbers
(i.e.,
roll
the
dice,
toss
the
coin,
etc.)
Repeat
the
experiment
and
tally
the
outcomes.
Compute
any
statistics
and
state
the
conclusions.
