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Quiz 2 covered materials in
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Revision
To understand probability distributions, it is important to understand
variables, random variables, and some notation.
A variable is a symbol (A, B, X, etc.) that can take on any of a
specified set of values.
When the value of a variable is the outcome of a statistical
experiment, that variable is a random variable.
Generally, statisticians use a capital letter to represent a random
variable and a lower-case letter, to represent one of its values. For
example,
X represents the random variable X.
P(X) represents the probability of X.
P(X = x) refers to the probability that the random variable X is equal
to a particular value, denoted by x. As an example, P(X = 1) refers
to the probability that the random variable X is equal to 1.
A cumulative probability refers to the probability that the value of a
random variable falls within a specified range.
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Normal Probability
Distribution
Chapter 7
Calculator functions: Ncd and
InvN
Learning Objectives
1. Find the probability given X
2. Find X given the probability
3. Standard Normal Distribution
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What is the difference between discrete and continuous
distributions?
Discrete probability distribution
for the sum of two dice.
Continuous probability distribution
Continuous Probability
Distribution
Normal Distribution Uniform Distribution
Normal Distribution is symmetrical and bell The uniform distribution is symmetrical
shaped, implying that most values tend to and therefore the mean = median.
cluster around the mean, equal to median.
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Normal Probability Distribution
The graph of the normal distribution depends on two factors
(1) the mean () and the standard deviation ().
The mean of the distribution determines the location of the
center of the graph, and the standard deviation determines
the height and width of the graph.
When the standard deviation is large, the curve is short and
wide; when the standard deviation is small, the curve is tall
and narrow. All normal distributions look like a symmetric, bell-
shaped curve, as shown below.
Normal Probability Distribution
The focus is on a
continuous,
bell-shaped
distribution
Discuss the
properties
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Properties
1. The normal curve is symmetrical
about the mean ;
2. The mean is at the middle and
divides the area into halves;
3. The total area under the curve is
equal to 1;
4. It is completely determined by its
mean and standard deviation
(or variance 2)
5. Since the normal curve is
symmetrical, the area under the
normal curve to the right of the
mean () equals the area under
the normal curve to the left of the
mean, and each of these areas
equals 0.5.
Normal Probability Distribution
When a mathematical
expression is available to
represent a continuous variable,
the probability that various
values occur
within certain ranges
or intervals can be calculated.
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Empirical Rule
Additionally, every normal curve (regardless of its mean or standard deviation)
conforms to the following "rule".
About 68% of the area under the curve falls within 1 standard deviation of
the mean.
About 95% of the area under the curve falls within 2 standard deviations of
the mean.
About 99.7% of the area under the curve falls within 3 standard deviations
of the mean.
Collectively, these points are known as the empirical rule or the 68-95-99.7
rule. Clearly, given a normal distribution, most outcomes will be within 3
standard deviations of the mean.
Normal Probability Distribution
However, the EXACT
probability of a
particular value from
a Normal
Distribution is
ZERO.
e.g. P(X=140) = 0
140 =170
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Normal Probability Distribution
a b
What information do we need to calculate P(a x b)?
2
The normal probability distribution 1 x -
-
is defined by the equation 1 2
f(x) = e
2
or all x on the real line
Normal Probability Distribution
In a normal distribution, only 2 parameters are needed,
namely and 2.
Probability = Area Under the Normal Curve
a b
What information do we need to calculate P(a x b)?
the area depends upon the values of
and
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Normal Probability Distribution
a b
To calculate
P(a x b): Normal
Random X= measured
Variable e.g. X= a persons weight
Parameters
and
Presentation of Solution
Follow the normal template page 269
X = ____________________
For example: X= number of .... WRONG
= Normal
=
P( ) = P ( X symbol # ) = Ncd ( L, U, , ) = 0.xxxx
(words) ( <, >, , ) 4 decimals
Must draw a diagram
(Mean, , value, shading)
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Suppose that the weights of adults are normally distributed
with a mean of 170.0lbs and a standard deviation of 25.0
lbs.
What is the probability that a person weighs from 150 to
190 lbs?
= 25.0
Note:
Calculating normal probability =
Finding area under a portion
of the normal curve
150 =170 190
X= a persons weight Refer to the calculator Lesson 7:
= 170.0 lbs Page 307
= 25.0 lbs normal
P( 150 x 190) = Ncd (150,190, 25, 170)
Lower upper
Normal Probability Distribution
Ncd
a b
What information do we need to calculate P(a x b)?
Ncd (a, b, , )
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Normal Probability Distribution
Ncd
a
What information do we need to calculate P(X a)?
Ncd (Lower, a, , )
Lower = lowest number
Normal Probability Distribution
Ncd
a
What information do we need to calculate P(x b)?
Ncd (a, upper, , )
Upper = highest number
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Binomial Probability Distribution with n=5, =0.07
0.8
What is the probability of less than
0.7
0.6957
3 left-handed?
0.6
P(X<3) = P(X2)
= 0.6957+0.2618+0.0394
0.5
=0.9969
Probability
0.4
0.3
0.2618
Does not include 3 so you
0.2
have to change it to include
the value in order to use Bcd
0.1
0.0394
0.003 0.0001 0.000002
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
X= Number of Left-handed
Binomial Probability Distribution with n=5, =0.07
0.8
What is the probability of at most
0.7
0.6957
2 left-handed?
0.6
P(X2)= 0.6957+0.2618+0.0394
=0.9969
0.5
Probability
0.4
0.3
0.2618
0.2
0.1
0.0394
0.003 0.0001 0.000002
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
X= Number of Left-handed
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Binomial Probability Distribution with n=5, =0.07
0.8
What is the probability of less
0.7
0.6957
2 left-handed?
0.6
P(X<2)= 0.6957+0.2618
=0.9575
0.5
Note does not include 2
Probability
0.4
0.3
0.2618
0.2
0.1
0.0394
0.003 0.0001 0.000002
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
X= Number of Left-handed
Normal Probability Exercises
Page 284
Q7.1 to Q7.6
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Illustration
Commuting times for students at an urban university have been found
to be normally distributed with a mean of 50.0 minutes and a standard
deviation of 15.0 minutes.
a) What is the probability that a student will take from 50 to 60
minutes to get to university?
b) What is the probability that a student will take less than 15 minutes
to get to university?
c) What is the probability that a student will take at most 20 minutes
to get to university?
d) What is the probability that a student will take at least 30 minutes
to get to university?
e) What is the probability that a student will take more than 60
minutes to get to university?
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Inverse Normal
page 297
Normal Probability Distribution
Given the value X, find The Inverse Normal
the probability (or Probability means:
the area under the Given the probability
curve) (area), find the x
value?
What
is the
area?
Area=
Given X 0.3
X=?
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Inverse Normal Probability
The weights of adults are normally distributed with a mean of 170.0 lbs
and a standard deviation of 25.0 lbs.
1) What is the maximum weight of the lightest 30% of the population?
Present your solution as follows (use the template)
X = persons weight
= 170.0 Normal
= 25.0 Area= = 25.0
P( X ? ) = 0.30
0.3
Area
? = Inv =
X=? = 170.0
CASIO Calculator: select STAT mode F5 (DIST) F1 (NORM) F3 (InvN)
X = InvN(0.3, 25, 170) =
Written statement: The lightest 30% weigh at most 156.9 lbs
Inverse Normal Probability
The weights of adults are normally distributed with a mean of 170.0 lbs
and a standard deviation of 25.0 lbs.
2) What is the minimum weight to be in the heaviest 30% of the
population? Present your solution as follows (use the template)
= 25.0
X = persons weight
= 170.0 Normal
Area = 0.3
= 25.0
P( X ? ) = 0.30
Area = 170.0
X=?
? = Inv =
CASIO Calculator: select STAT mode F5 (DIST) F1 (NORM) F3 (InvN)
X = InvN((1-0.3), 25, 170) = InvN(0.7, 25, 170)
Written statement: The heaviest 30% weigh at least 183.1 lbs.
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NOTE
When using the InvN function,
the Area value that is required is
the area to the LEFT of the
desired X value.
Area=
Area=
0.3
0.7
Using the same example where the weights of adults are
normally distributed with a mean of 170.0 lbs and a
standard deviation of 25.0 lbs.
What is the probability that a person weighs at least 160 lbs? P(X 160) = ?
X = persons weight
= 170.0 lbs = 25.0
= 25.0 lbs Normal
Area=?
Check for
+6 =
(170)+6(25)=320
P(X 160) = Ncd (160, 500, 25, 170) 160 = 170.0
= 0.6554
Lower upper
Suppose you are asked to calculate the probability
that the average weight of a group of people is at least 160 lbs.
How would you go about calculating the probability?
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Illustration
Commuting times for students at an urban university have been found
to be normally distributed with a mean of 50.0 minutes and a standard
deviation of 15.0 minutes.
a) 99.5% of students will have commuting times that are less than
how many minutes?
b) 95% of students will have commuting times that are between what
two values symmetrically distributed about the mean?
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Standard Normal Distribution
section 7.3 page 286
Normal Probability Distribution
When a mathematical
expression is available to
represent a continuous variable,
the probability that various
values occur
within certain ranges
or intervals can be calculated.
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Empirical Rule
Additionally, every normal curve (regardless of its mean or standard deviation)
conforms to the following "rule".
About 68% of the area under the curve falls within 1 standard deviation of
the mean.
About 95% of the area under the curve falls within 2 standard deviations of
the mean.
About 99.7% of the area under the curve falls within 3 standard deviations
of the mean.
Collectively, these points are known as the empirical rule or the 68-95-99.7
rule. Clearly, given a normal distribution, most outcomes will be within 3
standard deviations of the mean.
=2 for the X (Normal random variable)
=1 for the Z (standardized random variable
-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 X scale ( =7, =2)
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 Z scale ( =0, =1)
The original data for the random variable X had a mean and
std dev
The standardized random variable, Z will always have a mean =0
and std dev =1
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Transformation Formula
Any set of normally distributed values can be
converted to its standardized form, Z..
Convert any normal random variable X to
standardized normal random variable Z.
X
Z
The Z value is equal to the difference between X and the mean , divided by the
standard deviation
The random variable X ~ (, )
The standardized normal variable Z ~ (=0, =1)
Example
To see how the transformation formula works
The time to download the Web page is
normally distributed with a mean =7
seconds and a standard deviation =2
seconds
What is the Z value for a download time of 9
seconds?
97
Z 1
2
Answer: a download time of 9 seconds is equivalent to 1 standardized
unit (i.e. 1 standard deviation above the mean)
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Example
The time to download the Web page is
normally distributed with a mean =7
seconds and a standard deviation =2
seconds
What is the Z value for a download time of 1
second?
1 7
Z 3
2
Answer: a download time of 1 second is equivalent to 3 standardized
Units (i.e. 3 standard deviation below the mean)
Find P(X>9)
What is the probability that the download
time will be more than 9 seconds?
97
Z 1
2
P(X>9)=p(Z>1)
= Ncd(1,10,1,0)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
= 0.1587
Z scale ( =0, =1)
Check: P(x>9)=Ncd(9, 100,2,7)=0.1587
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Example
Given a standardized normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation
of 1, what is P(Z > 1.08) ? P( Z < -0.21)?
P(-1.96 < Z < -0.21)?
P(Z > 1.08) = Ncd(1.08, 10, 1, 0) = 0.1401
P(Z < -0.21) = Ncd(-10, -0.21, 1, 0) = 0.4168
P(-1.96< Z < 0.21) = Ncd(-10, -0.21, 1, 0) = 0.5582
Example
Given a normal distribution with mean =50
and standard deviation is 4, the
standardized (z score) value
corresponding to a data value of 43 would
be:
43 50
Z 1.75
4
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Question 2
a) Given a standardized normal distribution, what is the
probability that Z is less than 1.57?
b) Given a standardized normal distribution, what is the
probability that Z is greater than 1.87?
c) Given a standardized normal distribution, what is the
probability that Z is between 1.57 and 1.84?
d) Given a standardized normal distribution, what is the
probability that Z is less than 1.57 or greater than 1.84?
Practice questions
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Question 7.2, page 284
A firms marketing manager believes that total sales for next year can
be represented by a normal distribution, with mean of $2.5 million
and a standard deviation of $300,000. The firm has fixed cost of
$1.8 million.
a) What is the probability that the firms sales will be less than $3.0
million?
b) What is the probability that the firm will have sufficient sales to cover
fixed costs?
c) What is the probability that the firms sales will be within $150,000 of
the expected,i.e. mean sales?
d) Determine the sales level that has only a 9% chance of being
exceeded?
Question 7.4, page 285
In the movie Forest Gump, the public school required an IQ of at least
80 to be admitted.
a) If IQ test scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a
standard deviation of 16, what percent of children would qualify for
admittance to the school?
b) If the public school wished to have only 5% of all children not qualify
for admittance, what is the minimum IQ test score should be
required for admittance?
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Question 7.6, page 285
At a certain university the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of
first year students usually average 2.73 with a standard deviation
0.37. It has been found that the marks are usually approximately
normally distributed.
a) What is the probability that a student will have a CGPA that is
between 2.00 and 3.00?
b) What percent of students will be on probation, i.e. their CGPA is less
than 2.00?
c) Academic scholarships are awarded to the top 1% of first year
students. What is the minimum CGPA is needed to receive a
scholarship?
Question 8.26, page 363
A large company is currently evaluating 14 cost reducing proposals
submitted by employees. Past experience has shown that 30% of
such proposals are implemented by the company.
a) What is the probability that more than 5 proposals will be
implemented?
b) What is the probability that at least half of the proposals will be
implemented?
c) What is the expected number of proposals implemented?
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Normal Probability Distribution, Ncd
At a certain university the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of first year
students usually average 2.73 with a standard deviation 0.37. It has been found
that the marks are usually approximately normally distributed.
a)What percent of students will be on probation, i.e. their CGPA is less than 2.00?
=0.37
X=CGPA
2.00 =2.73
P(X<2.00)= Ncd(a small negative number as lower, 2.00, 0.37, 2.73)
= 0.0242
NOTE: It dosent matter whether you include 2 or not because
P(X=2.00)=0
Calculator input
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Question 8.34, page 363
The Long-Life Tire Co. claims that their Super-All-Season tire lasts an
average of 110,000 km. It is known that the tire life is normally
distributed with a standard deviation of 2800 km. Your company
has just purchased all new tires for its fleet of 10 cars. Assuming
that the manufacturers claim is true.
a) What is the probability that a tire will last longer than 112,000km?
d) What is the probability that all the tires of your car will last more
than 112,000 km?
Question 8.43, page 363
There are 12 agents in one office of a certain real estate firm. Much of
the business in this office is conducted by taking a prospective
customer out to view a particular property. The time to drive to and
view a property is normally distributed and averages 47.3 minutes
with a standard deviation of 11.7 minutes. Past studies have shown
that 26% of customers that visit properties with an agent will
eventually buy a property being shown by that agent. On average
each agent visits 3.6 properties a day, with a standard deviation of
1.9 visits. All of the above activities are independent of each other.
a) What is the probability that an agent will visit at least 7 properties
over the next three days?
c) A particular agent currently has 17 prospective customers that are
being shown properties for sale. What is the probability that less
than 4 of these customers will eventually buy a property being
shown by the agent?
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