Pre-AP Algebra IL Unit 6.3 Probability Day 1 Counting Methods: Permutations Objective: 1 can use the Fundamental Counting Principal as well as permutations to solve real- life situations. Fundamental Counting Principle: For n terms, if there are m: ways to choose a first item and m2 ways to choose a second item after the first item has been chosen and so on...Then there are m, * m2*....!M_ ways to choose n items. School Dress Example 2 90> [HP 3 ye = 60 2 dS ¢O written n*(n-1)*(N-2)...2*1. (The factorial of 0 is defined to be 1) Permutation, P: An arrangement of a group of objects in which order is important. The number of permutations of r objects from a group of n objects is denoted nPr. Example: How many permutations are there for the set {a, b, c}? duty 3 = sek Number of Permutations of n distinct elements of a set: nlExample 5; How many permutations of the letters A, B, C, D, E, and F are possible if the letters cannot be repeated? 2 bute 72° 543 2) How many permutations of the same letters are possible, if the letters can be repeated? oo & b& Example 6: You are taking a chemistry test and are asked to list the first ten elements in order as they appear in the periodic table of elements. Suppose you have no idea of the correct order and simply guess. What is the probability that you guess correctly? , oo —_—_ Wake 10 HoreEeo 46, 056 Number of Permutations of n elements taken r at a time: oni Example 7: How many different ways can 8 people be seated in a row of 5 chairs? Bi%®S = 720 Example 8: A museum has 7 paintings to hang and 3 vacant locations, each of which will hold one painting. In how many different ways can these 3 locations be filled by the paintings? TrPeB= 210Counting Methods: Combinations Combinations: same as permutations but order is not important. Example 1: List the elements of the set {a, b, c} if they are taken ata time. Permutations: {2 Combinations: (’” ) The Number of Combinations of n elements taken rat a time: Tn=ni Example 2: (a) 26 (o() 5GTheoretical & Experimental Probability Objective: I can describe the difference between theoretical and experimental probabilty as well ‘2 apply probabilty to real-ife situations. Probability of an Event: A number from 0 to 1 (0% to 100%) that is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. ‘Sample Space: the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment, Event: an outcome of set of outcomes in a probability experiment. Experiment: process by which we obtain an outcome. Theoretical Probability: The ratio of the number of equally likely ‘outcomes in an event to the total number of possible outcomes. (A) mw) Finding the Probability of an Event: ”(4)= P(Event)=(number of favorable outcomes)/(number of outcomes in the sample space.) A fair 20-sided dice with faces numbered 1 to 20 is rolled. The event A is defined as | ‘the number obtained isa multiple of 4”. a Determine P(A). 44, $) 12, 16,22 BS | The die in eolled 100 men | | b How many times would you expect a multiple of 4?Experimental Probability: The ratio of the number of times the event occurs, the frequency to the number of trials. ‘The colors of cars passing the school gate one mornirg are given in the table: a Estimate the probability that the next car to pass the school gates will be red. JB Jas b The next morning 350 cars pass the school gates. (or Estimate the number of red cars that morning. (_ = ~You can use relative frequency as an estimate of probability. The larger the number of trials the closer the relative frequency. Subjective Probability is when you estimate the probability of an event base on experience, information and belief. The Probabi f the Complem: an Event P(not E) = 1 - P(E) P(E) + P(E)=2 P(E’) = 1 - P(E) Venn DiagramUnion of Two Events: set that Contains all of the elements that are in a At least one of the two sets. OR aus Intersection of Two Events:_set Containing all of the elements that are Both sets AUB AND ans ‘Venn Diagram Probability of the Union of Two Events: PAUB)=PA)+PB) — PCAN) Ina group of 30 srudents, 17 play computer games, 10 play board gaines and9 play nether. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information. Use your diageam to find the probability har; 2 student chosen at random from the group plays board games, b a student plays both computer games and board games, © a student plays board games but not computer games. 30- e(avae P{ays PLA) POA) 2)=17+10 -% 2)=27~* -27 -27 —Ge-%Probability of Two Inclusive Events: P(AUB)= P(A)+ P(B)~ PAM) Acard is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is a heart or a king. 2, £1 Jf Sz S27 Be B2 If A and Bare two events such that P(A) = 2 and P(B) P(A U B) = 2P(4 9 B) find a P(AUB) b P(AUBY ¢ P(ANB’).Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur in the same trial of an experiment. Venn Diagram Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A)+P(B)= P(AUB), P(AMB)=0 A box contains board-pens of various colors. A teacher picks out a pen at random. The probability of drawing out a red pen is £, and the probability of drawing out a green pen is a red nor a green pen? 2. What is the probability of drawing neither Zou 2. 13. 7 + 3s s 3SSample Space Diagrams and Product Rule ‘A fairspinner with the numbers 1, 2 and 3 on it as shown is spun three times. List all the possible outcomes From this experiment, Hence find the probability thatthe score onthe last spin the first two spins, rrp yp ah (zl 22) 324 pi2F zie aie 2 (2p 291 3b) 1137 213% 31% page 2237 9% ) 32 292 Boe y2e ree 22% )33 293 27?Complete the chart to show the possible sums when rolling two six-sided dice. W213 |¢l ele |7 i 3|9ftslbi[7i|s “J}9 15 |b |7 | 019 sip ]7}e 19 | wl] 6 7 t 9 | yo | 4 HH) 7 | %) 9) oly fiz What is the probability of throwing a sum of six? _5 Be What is the probability of throwing the same two numbers? £23 eS What is the probability of throwing a sum less than six? wee Be ITDay 5 Independent & Dependent Events Objective: 1 can describe the difference between theoretical and experimental probabilty as well 2s apply probabilty to rearlife tuations, Independent Events: Events which the occurrence or non- occurrence of one event does not effect the probability of the other event. When two events are independent: P(A B)= P(A)*P(B) ‘One bag contains 3 red and 2 white balls, another bag contains I red and 4 white balls. A ball is selected at random from each bag, Find the probability that @ both the balls are red, —b_ the balls are different colors, © at least one ball is white 42,4 .2\2 3 z og sole) ox bresConditional Probability Dependent Events: Events for which the occurrence or non- occurrence of one event affects the probability af the other event. P(ANB) P(AIB)= PCB) Rearranging the equation gives us P(ANB)= P(A|B)* P(B), which could also be useful. > If A and Bare independent events, P(A1B) = P(A), P(B1 4) =P(B), P(AL 8) = PCA) and P(B| 4’) = P(B). Of the 53 staff at a school, 36 drink tea, 18 drink coffee, and 10 drink neither tea nor coffee. a How many staff drink both tea and coffee? One member of staff is chosen at random. Find the probability that: b he drinks tea but not coffee, ¢ if he is a tea drinker he drinks coffee as well, dif he is a tea drinker he does not drink coffee. 3G +18-X = 13 54-12 73Example 3 Two number cubes are rolled - one red and one blue. Explain why the events are dependent and then find the probability. a. The red cube shows a 1, and the sum is less than 4. wn depends on er ree y] 7 b. The blue cube shows a multiple of 3, and the sum is 8. BProbability Tree Diagrams. 1 ree diagrams are another way to show probabilities especially when several different events and probabilities are taking place. The probability that Samuel, a keen member of the school Archery Club, hits the bullseye is 0.8, Samuel takes two shots. Assume that success with each shot is independent from the previous shot. Represent this information on a tree diagram. Find the probability that Samuel a hits two bullseyes b hits only one bullseye € hits atleast one bullseye, b) Merle = BE <). 16 “4A bag contains 5 green and 6 red balls, If two balls are taken out successively, without replacement, what is the probability that a at least one green is chosen, b red is picked on the first pick given that at least one green is chosen? & z,2 -j\z a) arate bt 2 Gre Ao he DF Sakon FE Y Re Toby is a rising star of the school Tennis Club, He has found that when he gets his first serve in the probability that he wins that point is 0.75. When he uses his second serve there is a 0.45 chance of him winning the point. He is successful at getting his frst serve in on 3 out of 5 occasions and his second serve in on 3 out of 4 occasions. a. Find the probability that the next time it is Toby's turn to serve he wins the point, b_ Given that Toby wins the point, what is the probability that he got his first serve in?Binomial Expansion xty =x 42y+y? a 43x y+3y7 4+" axt 44x y46x7y? +4zy? + y! =x° +5x*y +10x° y? +10x7y? + Sxy* + y* (x+y) =x° +6x°y+15x*y? + 20x79? +15x7y4 + 6xy' + y® 1. How does the power of the binomial relate to the number of terms in the above examples? 2. What is the relationship between the power of the binomial and the coeffici ‘second term in the expanded binomial? nt of the, 3, What do you notice about the first and last terms? 4, What is the exponent sum for each term in the binomial expansion? 5, What is happening tothe exponents of the x variable compared to what is happening to the exponents of they variable in each term as you read the binomial expansion from left Yo Fight? Vey able ont ia Hh pe. Use the Binomial Expansion notes from the first page and the portion of Pascat's Triangle shown below to answer the following questions Power of Binom) 0 1 1 roo 2 ' 1 3 1 3 4 1 4 6 4 1 5 1 os 0 0 $s 1 6 1 6 i » I 6 1 6, Describe the pattern from one row to the next row in Pascal's Triangle.7. Use Pascal Triangle to complete the following two rows for the power of binomial being 7 and 8. 8, The numbers in each row of Pascal's Triangle can also be written using Combination Notation: .Ceread as n choose r.” To calculate a combination, one must use factors in the process. A Factor, such as 41= 43:21, is nl = n(n-t)(n-2).-(2X1). Combination Formula: ,C, -() “con For example, the 4" row of Pascal Triangle using combination notation as follows: ap ip yee cage 4 For example: What is the 3° term containing x? when expanding (x-y)"? Pascal's Triangle of Row4: 1 4 «64 Binomial Theorem Binomial Theorem (or Binomial Expansion Formula) For any positive integer mand any terms aand b, (a+6y = [peewee (Loree What is the 51° term when expanding (b + £)"? Expand (b +1)?‘The Binomial Theorem can also be used to find probabilities in binomial situations. Consider adie that has 2 red faces and 4 black faces. If we roll the die three times, list +the possible outcomes in the table below. Allred Zred and black _[ired and 2black | Allblack What is the ratio of the possible outcomes? 15 3) What does that pattern remind you of? Peres! What is the probability of the die landing on red? What is the probability of the die landing on black? _ So substituting the probabilities in for R and B, we can find the probability Feat Outcome Peebabiites Total probablities All red RRR /1)? } G/ 2 2 red and 1 black RRB 22) 3(4) GF) + par 7 eRe Tredand2 black | RBB 7 BRB aR All black Baa sen fA manatee 3