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Assignment Forcasting

This document compares three forecasting methods - a three period moving average, a three period weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - on demand data over a 12 month period. Key metrics like forecast, error, and absolute error are calculated for each method and period. The exponential smoothing method had the lowest total absolute error of 124.11.

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86 views6 pages

Assignment Forcasting

This document compares three forecasting methods - a three period moving average, a three period weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - on demand data over a 12 month period. Key metrics like forecast, error, and absolute error are calculated for each method and period. The exponential smoothing method had the lowest total absolute error of 124.11.

Uploaded by

noman
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Forecasting

Three Period Moving Average

Data Error Analysis 180


Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 - - -
February 137 - - - 140
March 122 - - - 120
April 105 119.67 -14.67 14.67
100
May 150 121.33 28.67 28.67
June 136 125.67 10.33 10.33 80
July 93 130.33 -37.33 37.33
60
August 122 126.33 -4.33 4.33
September 124 117.00 7.00 7.00 40
October 166 113.00 53.00 53.00 20
November 145 137.33 7.67 7.67
December 152 145.00 7.00 7.00 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total 57.33 170.00
Dema nd Li near (Demand
Average 6.37 18.89
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ma nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st
Forecasting
Three Period Weighted Moving Average

Data Error Analysis 180


Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 1 - - -
February 137 2 - - - 140
March 122 3 - - - 120
April 105 123.3 -18.3 18.3
100
May 150 116.0 34.0 34.0
June 136 130.3 5.7 5.7 80
July 93 135.5 -42.5 42.5
60
August 122 116.8 5.2 5.2
September 124 114.7 9.3 9.3 40
October 166 118.2 47.8 47.8
20
November 145 144.7 0.3 0.3
December 152 148.5 3.5 3.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total 45.0 166.7
Dema nd Li near (Dema
Sum of Weights 6 Average 5.0 18.5
Average

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Dema nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st
Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing

Data Error Analysis 180


Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 13.00 - -
February 137 69.55 67.45 67.45 140
March 122 113.39 8.61 8.61 120
April 105 118.99 -13.99 13.99
100
May 150 109.90 40.10 40.10
June 136 135.96 0.04 0.04 80
July 93 135.99 -42.99 42.99
60
August 122 108.05 13.95 13.95
September 124 117.12 6.88 6.88 40
October 166 121.59 44.41 44.41
20
November 145 150.46 -5.46 5.46
December 152 146.91 5.09 5.09 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total 124.11 248.97
Dema nd Li near (Demand)
Average 11.28 22.63

Alpha 0.65
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ma nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st

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