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Basics Concepts and Important Formulas - Probability or Chance

Formulas

Solved Examples - Set 1 1. Probability or Chance

Solved Examples - Set 2

Probability or chance is a common term used in day-to-day life. For

example, we generally say, 'it may rain today'. This statement has a certain
Are you
uncertainty.
there?
Probability is quantitative measure of the chance of occurrence of a
particular event.

Connect to
2. Experiment
the largest
An experiment is an operation which can produce well-defined outcomes. crowdfunding
platform for
3. Random Experiment technological
and business
If all the possible outcomes of an experiment are known but the exact
projects.
output cannot be predicted in advance, that experiment is called a random
experiment.

Examples

i. Tossing of a fair coin

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When we toss a coin, the outcome will be either Head (H) or Tail (T)

ii. Throwing an unbiased die

Die is a small cube used in games. It has six faces and each of the
six faces shows a different number of dots from 1 to 6. Plural of die
is dice.

When a die is thrown or rolled, the outcome is the number that

appears on its upper face and it is a random integer from one to
six, each value being equally likely.

iii. Drawing a card from a pack of shuffled cards

A pack or deck of playing cards has 52 cards which are divided into
four categories as given below

a. Spades (♠) b. Clubs (♣) c. Hearts (♥)

d. Diamonds (♦)
Each of the above mentioned categories has 13 cards, 9 cards
numbered from 2 to 10, an Ace, a King, a Queen and a jack

Hearts and Diamonds are red faced cards whereas Spades and
Clubs are black faced cards.

Kings, Queens and Jacks are called face cards

iv. Taking a ball randomly from a bag containing balls of

different colours

4. Sample Space
 Sample Space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. It is
denoted by S.

Examples

i. When a coin is tossed, S = {H, T} where H = Head and T = Tail

ii. When a dice is thrown, S = {1, 2 , 3, 4, 5, 6}

iii. When two coins are tossed, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} where H = Head
and T = Tail

5. Event

Any subset of a Sample Space is an event. Events are generally denoted by

capital letters A, B , C, D etc.

Examples

i. When a coin is tossed, outcome of getting head or tail is an event

ii. When a die is rolled, outcome of getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is

an event

6. Equally Likely Events

Events are said to be equally likely if there is no preference for a particular

event over the other.

Examples

i. When a coin is tossed, Head (H) or Tail is equally likely to occur.

ii. When a dice is thrown, all the six faces (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) are equally
likely to occur.

7. Mutually Exclusive Events

Two or more than two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the
occurrence of one of the events excludes the occurrence of the other

This can be better illustrated with the following examples

i. When a coin is tossed, we get either Head or Tail. Head and Tail
cannot come simultaneously. Hence occurrence of Head and Tail are
mutually exclusive events.

ii. When a die is rolled, we get 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6. All these

faces cannot come simultaneously. Hence occurrences of particular
faces when rolling a die are mutually exclusive events.

Note : If A and B are mutually exclusive events, A ∩ ∩ B = ϕϕ

where ϕϕ represents empty set.

iii. Consider a die is thrown and A be the event of getting 2 or 4 or 6

and B be the event of getting 4 or 5 or 6. Then

A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {4, 5, 6}

Here A ∩ ∩ B ≠ ϕ ≠ ϕ. Hence A and B are not mutually exclusive

events.

8. Independent Events
 Events can be said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of
one event does not influence the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.

Example : When a coin is tossed twice, the event of getting Tail(T) in the
first toss and the event of getting Tail(T) in the second toss are independent
events. This is because the occurrence of getting Tail(T) in any toss does not
influence the occurrence of getting Tail(T) in the other toss.

9. Simple Events

In the case of simple events, we take the probability of occurrence of single

events.

Examples

i. Probability of getting a Head (H) when a coin is tossed

ii. Probability of getting 1 when a die is thrown

10. Compound Events

In the case of compound events, we take the probability of joint occurrence

of two or more events.

Examples

i. When two coins are tossed, probability of getting a Head (H) in the
first toss and getting a Tail (T) in the second toss.

11. Exhaustive Events

Exhaustive Event is the total number of all possible outcomes of an

experiment.

Examples

i. When a coin is tossed, we get either Head or Tail. Hence there are 2
exhaustive events.

ii. When two coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are (H, H), (H,
T), (T, H), (T, T). Hence there are 4 (=22) exhaustive events.

iii. When a dice is thrown, we get 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6. Hence

there are 6 exhaustive events.

12. Algebra of Events

Let A and B are two events with sample space S. Then

i. A ∪ ∪ B is the event that either A or B or Both occur. (i.e., at least

one of A or B occurs)

ii. A ∩ ∩ B is the event that both A and B occur

iii. ĀAˉ is the event that A does not occur

iv. Ā ∩ B̄Aˉ ∩ Bˉ is the event that none of A and B occurs

 Example : Consider a die is thrown , A be the event of getting 2 or 4 or 6
and B be the event of getting 4 or 5 or 6. Then

A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {4, 5, 6}

A ∪ ∪ B = {2, 4, 5, 6}

A ∩ ∩ B = {4, 6}

ĀAˉ = {1, 3, 5}

B̄Bˉ = {1, 2, 3}

Ā ∩ B̄Aˉ ∩ Bˉ = {1,3}

13. Probability of en Event

Let E be an event and S be the sample space. Then probability of the event
E can be defined as

n(E) n(E)
P(E) =
n(S) n(S)

where P(E) = Probability of the event E, n(E) = number of ways in which

the event can occur and n(S) = Total number of outcomes possible

Examples

i. A coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting Head?

Total number of outcomes possible when a coin is tossed = n(S) =

2 (∵ Head or Tail)

E = event of getting Head = {H}. Hence n(E) = 1

n(E) 1 n(E) 1
P(E) = = P(E) = =
n(S) 2 n(S) 2

ii. Two dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum on the top
face of both the dice will be greater than 9?

Total number of outcomes possible when a die is rolled = 6 (∵ any

one face out of the 6 faces)

Hence, total number of outcomes possible two dice are rolled, n(S)
= 6 × 6 = 36

E = Getting a sum greater than 9 when the two dice are rolled =
{(4, 6), {5, 5}, {5, 6}, {6, 4}, {6, 5}, (6, 6)}

Hence, n(E) = 6

n(E) 6 1 n(E) 6 1
P(E) = = = P(E) = = =
n(S) 36 6 n(S) 36 6

14. Important formulas

P(S) = 1

0 ≤ ≤ P (E) ≤ ≤ 1

P(ϕϕ) = 0 (∵ Probability of occurrence of an impossible event = 0)

15. Addition Theorem

 Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. Then

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ ∩ B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

because for mutually exclusive events, P(A ∩ ∩ B) = 0

If A and B are two independents events, then

16. P(A ∩ ∩ B) = P(A).P(B)

Example : Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting an odd
number in one die and getting an even number in the other die?

Total number of outcomes possible when a die is rolled, n(S) = 6 (∵ any one
face out of the 6 faces)

Let A be the event of getting the odd number in one die = {1,3,5}. =>
n(A)= 3

n(A) 3 1 n(A) 3 1
P(A) = = = P(A) = = =
n(S) 6 2 n(S) 6 2

Let B be the event of getting an even number in the other die = {2,4, 6}.
=> n(B)= 3

n(B) 3 1 n(B) 3 1
P(B) = = = P(B) = = =
n(S) 6 2 n(S) 6 2

1 1 11 1 1
Required Probability, P(A ∩ ∩ B) = P(A).P(B) = × = × =
2 2 42 2 4

Let A be any event and ĀA ˉ be its complementary event (i.e., ĀAˉ is the
event that A does not occur). Then

ˉ = 1 - P(A)
P(Ā)P(A)

17. Odds on an event

Let E be an event associated with a random experiment. Let xx outcomes

are favourable to E and y outcomes are not favourable to E, then

xx
Odds in favour of E are x : yx : y, i.e., and
yy
yy
Odds against E are y : xy : x, i.e.,
xx
x x
P(E) =
x+y x+y
y y
ˉ =
P(Ē)P(E)
x+y x+y
 Example : What are the odds in favour of and against getting a 1 when a
die is rolled?

Let E be an event of getting 1 when a die is rolled

Outcomes which are favourable to E, x = 1x = 1

Outcomes which are not favourable to E, y = 5y = 5

x 1x 1
Odds in favour of getting 1 = = =
y 5y 5
x y 5x y 5
Odds against getting 1 = = = = =
y x 1y x 1

18. Conditional Probability

Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. Then,

probability of the occurrence of A given that B has already occurred is called
conditional probability and denoted by P(A/B)

Example : A bag contains 5 black and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn from
the bag one by one without replacement. What is the probability of drawing
a blue ball in the second draw if a black ball is already drawn in the first
draw?

Let A be the event of drawing black ball in the first draw and B be the event
of drawing a blue ball in the second draw. Then, P(B/A) = Probability of
drawing a blue ball in the second draw given that a black ball is already
drawn in the first draw.

Total Balls = 5 + 4 = 9

Since a black ball is drawn already,

total number of balls left after the first draw = 8
total number of blue balls after the first draw = 4

4 1 4 1
P(B/A) = = P(B/A) = =
8 2 8 2

19. Binomial Probability distribution

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment which satisfies the following

requirements.

1. Each trial can have only two outcomes. These outcomes can be considered as
either success or failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other.
4. The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

In a binomial experiment, The probability of achieving exactly r successes in

n trials can be given by

( )pr q n−r ()
n n r n−r
P (r successes in n trials) = pq
r r

where p = probability of success in one trial

q = 1 - p = probability of failure in one trial

n(n − 1)(n − 2) ⋯ (n − r + 1)
( ) ()
n n nC
n!
= r= =
r r (r!)(n − r)! r!
n! n(n − 1)(n − 2)⋯(n − r + 1)
= =
(r !)(n − r) ! r!

20. More Shortcut Formulas

 If n fair coins are tossed,

Total number of outcomes in the sample space = 2n 2 n

The probability of getting exactly r-number of heads when n coins are

nCr nC
r
tossed =
2n 2n

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kk 3 years ago

I am class 10. Our teachers never told us so easy methods. Ty

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