Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Earliest approach taken to seismic hazard analysis
Originated in nuclear power industry applications
Still used for some significant structures
Nuclear power plants
Large dams
Large bridges
Hazardous waste containment facilities
As “cap” for probabilistic analyses
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Corps of Engineers Regulation 1110-2-1804 (1995)
Sec. 5.h.2.a
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA).
The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources sufficiently
near the site and available historical seismic and geological data to
generate discrete, single-valued events or models of ground motion
at the site. Typically one or more earthquakes are specified by
magnitude and location with respect to the site. Usually the
earthquakes are assumed to occur on the portion of the site closest
to the site. The site ground motions are estimated deterministically,
given the magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site condition.
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Consists of four primary steps:
1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Selection of source-site distance parameter
3. Selection of “controlling earthquake”
4. Definition of hazard using controlling earthquake
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Identification
All sources capable of producing significant
ground motion at the site
Large sources at long distances
Small sources at short distances
Characterization
Definition of source geometry
Establishment of earthquake potential
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Which sources are capable of producing significant
motion at the site of interest?
What is significant motion?
Parametric definition
Peak acceleration - usually ~0.05g
Spectral acceleration - at fundamental
period, if known
Other parameters
Use predictive (attenuation) relationship to
determine distance of interest
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Estimate maximum magnitude that could be
produced by any source in vicinity of site
Find value of Rmax - corresponds to Mmax at threshold
value of parameter of interest, Ymin.
ln Y
M = Mmax
Ymin
Rmax
log R
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Characterize geometry
Point source
Constant source-site distance Source
Volcanos, distant short faults
Site
Linear source
One parameter controls distance
Shallow, distant fault
Source
Site
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Characterize geometry
Areal source
Two geometric parameters control distance
Constant depth crustal source
Site
Source
Volumetric source
Three parameters control distance
Site
Source
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Establish earthquake potential - typically Mmax
Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
“Theoretical” determination
Slip rate correlations
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Slip rate approach
Recall seismic moment
Mo = m A D
where
m = shear modulus of rock
A = rupture area
D = average displacement over rupture
area
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Slip rate approach
If average displacement relieves stress/strain
built up by movement of the plates over some
period, T, then
D=SxT
where S is the slip rate
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Slip rate approach
Then
Mo = m A S T
and the “moment rate” can be defined as
Mo = Mo/T = m A S
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Identification and characterization of all sources
Slip rate approach
Knowing the slip rate and knowing (assuming)
values of m, A, and T, the moment rate can be
used to estimate the seismic moment as
Mo = M o T
Then
Mw = log Mo/1.5 - 10.7
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select source-site distance parameter
Define source-site distance
Must be consistent with predictive relationship
Should include finite fault effect
Select source-site distance
Distance to surface projection of
closest point on rupture surface Epicentral
distance
Distance to
closest point on
rupture surface
Hypocentral
distance
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select source-site distance parameter
Distance measures
Vertical Faults
rjb
rrup
rseis Seismogenic
depth
rhypo
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select source-site distance parameter
Distance measures
Dipping Faults
rjb=0 rjb
rseis
rseis & rrup
rrup r
hypo
rhypo
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select source-site distance parameter
Typically assume shortest source-site distance
(“worst case” scenario)
Source
Rmin
Point source
Site
Rmin Source
Linear source
Site
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select source-site distance parameter
Typically assume shortest source-site distance
(“worst case” scenario)
Site
Areal source
Rmin
Source
Rmin
Site
Volumetric
Source source
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select controlling earthquake
Decision based on ground motion parameter(s) of
greatest interest
Consider all sources
Assume Mmax occurs at Rmin for each source
Compute ground motion parameter(s) based on
Mmax and Rmin
Determine critical value(s) of ground motion
parameter(s)
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select controlling earthquake
Source 3
Source 1 R1 M3
R2
M1 Site
R3
M2
Source 2
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Select controlling earthquake
ln Y Source 2 controls
Combination of M2
M2 M = M1 and R2 produces
Y2
highest value of Y
M3
Y3
Y1
R2 R3 R1
log R
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Define hazard using controlling earthquake
Use M and R to determine such parameters as:
Peak acceleration
ln amax
Spectral accelerations
Duration
log R
Sa
0 T
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Comments
DSHA produces “scenario” earthquake for design
(design earthquake)
As commonly used, produces worst-case scenario
DSHA provides no indication of how likely design
earthquake is to occur during life of structure
Design earthquakes may occur every 200 yrs in
some places, every 10,000 yrs in others
DSHA can require subjective opinions on some
input parameters
Variability in effects not rationally accounted for
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Corps of Engineers Regulation 1110-2-1804 (1995)
Sec. 5.h.2.a
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA).
The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources sufficiently
near the site and available historical seismic and geological data to
generate discrete, single-valued events or models of ground motion
DSHA
at the calculations
site. Typically oneareorrelatively simple,
more earthquakes arebut
specified by
implementation of procedure
magnitude and location with respectin
to practice involves
the site. Usually the
numerous
earthquakesdifficult judgements.
are assumed The
to occur on the lackofoftheexplicit
portion site closest
consideration
to the site. The of
siteuncertainties
ground motions areshould notdeterministically,
estimated be taken to
imply
giventhat those uncertainties
the magnitude, do not and
source-to-site distance, exist.
site condition.
