STAT 400 Stepanov
UIUC
Examples for 2.6 Dalpiaz
Poisson Distribution:
X = the number of occurrences of a particular event in an interval of time or space.
P( X = x ) =
λx⋅ e −λ , x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … .
x!
E( X ) = λ, Var( X ) = λ.
Table III ( pp. 580 – 582 ) gives P( X ≤ x )
1. Traffic accidents at a particular intersection follow Poisson distribution with
an average rate of 1.4 per week.
a) What is the probability that the next week is accident-free?
1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4
1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. P(X = 0) = ≈ 0.2466.
0!
b) What is the probability that there will be exactly 3 accidents next week?
1.4 3 ⋅ e − 1.4
1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. P(X = 3) = ≈ 0.1128.
3!
c) What is the probability that there will be at most 2 accidents next week?
1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4.
P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4 1.4 1 ⋅ e − 1.4 1.4 2 ⋅ e − 1.4
= + +
0! 1! 2!
≈ 0.2466 + 0.3452 + 0.2417 = 0.8335.
d) What is the probability that there will be at least 2 accidents during the next
two weeks?
2 weeks ⇒ λ = 2.8.
2.8 0 ⋅ e − 2.8 2.8 1 ⋅ e − 2.8
P( X ≥ 2 ) = 1 – [ P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 ) ] = 1− +
0 ! 1!
≈ 1 – [ 0.0608 + 0.1703 ] = 0.7689.
e) What is the probability that there will be exactly 5 accidents during the next
four weeks?
5.6 5 ⋅ e − 5.6
4 weeks ⇒ λ = 5.6. P(X = 5) = ≈ 0.1697.
5!
f) What is the probability that there will be exactly 2 accidents tomorrow?
0.2 2 ⋅ e − 0.2
1 day ⇒ λ = 0.2. P(X = 2) = ≈ 0.0164.
2!
g) What is the probability that the next accident will not occur for three days?
0.6 0 ⋅ e − 0.6
3 days ⇒ λ = 0.6. P(X = 0) = ≈ 0.5488.
0!
h) What is the probability that there will be exactly three accident-free weeks
during the next eight weeks?
“Success” = an accident-free week
1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4
1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. p = P ( “Success” ) = P ( X = 0 ) = ≈ 0.2466.
0!
P ( exactly 3 accident-free weeks in 8 weeks ) = 8 C 3 ⋅ 0.2466 3 ⋅ 0.7534 5 ≈ 0.20384.
( Binomial distribution )
i) What is the probability that there will be exactly five accident-free days
during the next week?
“Success” = an accident-free day
0.2 0 ⋅ e − 0.2
1 day ⇒ λ = 0.2. p = P ( “Success” ) = P ( X = 0 ) = ≈ 0.81873.
0!
P ( exactly 5 accident-free days in 7 days ) = 7 C 5 ⋅ 0.81873 5 ⋅ 0.18127 2 ≈ 0.25385.
( Binomial distribution )
When n is large ( n ≥ 20 ) and p is small ( p ≤ 0.05 ) and n ⋅ p ≤ 5,
Binomial probabilities can be approximated by Poisson probabilities.
For this, set λ = n ⋅ p.
2. Suppose the defective rate at a particular factory is 1%. Suppose 50 parts
were selected from the daily output of parts. Let X denote the number of
defective parts in the sample.
a) Find the probability that the sample contains exactly 2 defective parts.
50
P ( X = 2 ) = ⋅ (0.01) 2 ⋅ (0.99 ) 48 ≈ 0.075618.
2
b) Use Poisson approximation to find the probability that the sample contains
exactly 2 defective parts.
λ = n ⋅ p = 0.5.
0.5 2 ⋅ e − 0.5
P( X = 2 ) = ≈ 0.075816.
2!
c) Find the probability that the sample contains at most 1 defective part.
P( X ≤ 1 ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 )
50 50
= ⋅ (0.01) 0 ⋅ (0.99 ) 50 + ⋅ (0.01) 1 ⋅ (0.99 ) 49 ≈ 0.910565.
0 1
d) Use Poisson approximation to find the probability that the sample contains
at most 1defective part.
P( X ≤ 1 ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 )
0.5 0 ⋅ e − 0.5 0.5 1 ⋅ e − 0.5
= + ≈ 0.909796.
0! 1!
