Natural hazards and climate change:

what knowledge is transferable?

Emma L. Tompkins and Lisa-Ann Hurlston��

March 2005

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 69

 Natural hazards and climate change: what knowledge is
transferable?

Emma L. Tompkins1
Lisa-Ann Hurlston2

1 Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research
and
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ

2 Department of Environment, Cayman Islands' Government, Grand Cayman,

Cayman Islands, B.W.I.

Email: [email protected]

Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69

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Summary
This paper examines national government responses to hurricanes in the Caribbean, and
considers what lessons can be learned for adapting to climate change. Climate change,
which is expected to increase the unpredictability of weather-related hazards as well as
change mean conditions, could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Little empirical
evidence exists to guide national planners on how to adapt to climate change and there is
some controversy about how to learn from past adaptation experiences, notably to
hazards. This gap in knowledge is partly addressed in this paper through an investigation
into the Cayman Islands’ Government’s response to hurricane risk over a 13 year period.
Theories of policy change and hazards literature are used to explain the response strategy.
Persuasion, exposure and collective action are found to be key components of the
national response to hurricanes.

These processes of adapting to natural hazards are found to be similar to those required
for adapting to climate change hazards. The potential for learning by analogy is explored.
It is found that the natural hazards literature can be heavily drawn upon to advise national
government planners for climate change preparedness, and theories of policy change can
usefully frame our understanding of the institutional learning processes which need to
occur to embed past lessons in current practices. In conclusion the potential for learning
by analogy is useful, however only when applied in similar or identical social or cultural
contexts.

Key words
Adaptation, learning, analogy, climate change, small islands, planning, Caribbean,
tropical storms, hurricanes

1. Introduction

Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of disasters either through changing
the incidence and severity of weather-related hazards, or by increasing the vulnerability
of human populations to the impacts of those hazards. The former could occur through
changing weather conditions, such as precipitation regimes or storminess. The latter
could occur through increased environmental and social pressures arising from some of
the global environmental changes expected from climate change. In response to this
problem, efforts are being made to explore what we can learn from past disasters and how
that can help us adapt to global climate change. For example in 2002 the UNDP
organised an expert group meeting in Havana, Cuba to explore explicitly integrating
disaster reduction and adaptation to climate change. A growing body of literature is
starting to emerge that is asking what lessons can be learned, see for example (Burton,
2002, Hay, 2002, Trotz, 2002, Challenger, 2002). Specifically lessons are sought that
reveal a role for disaster management in risk reduction.

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Despite this initiative some scepticism exists that useful analogies for climate change
preparedness can be drawn from past disaster events. The reasons most often given for
rejecting reasoning by analogy are because of different social and cultural contexts;
different spatial scales of analysis; the past not reflecting the future; and disasters being
an extreme case of weather and hence not useful for preparing for climate change, such as
changes in mean conditions. For a review of the arguments both for and against using
analogies see Meyer et al. (1998)

Nonetheless, the literature from the disasters field suggests that that a lack of
preparedness for environmental hazards will always worsen the impacts of those hazards.
Since Blaikie et al (1994) produced their ‘pressure-release’ model, most disaster experts
agree that disasters are largely socially constructed. Blaikie et al, specifically suggest that
a combination of root causes embedded in dominant ideologies, power relations,
structures and access to resources, exacerbate dynamic pressures in communities leading
to unsafe conditions with a fragile environment and local economy. They conclude that
the coincidence of unsafe social conditions with a hazard (natural or man-made) leads to
disasters (Blaikie et al., 1994). More recent work (Pelling, 2003, Smith, 2001), and
indeed literature from other fields, including the risk literature (International Red Cross,
2002), reinforce this understanding and promote active disaster management to reduce
the impacts of hazards.

Much empirical work exists to reveal the link between disaster preparedness and risk
reduction, even the link between policy changes that implement disaster preparedness
activities and risk reduction is widely accepted, see for example (International Red Cross,
2002, Thompson and Gaviria, 2004). However, the reasons why some governments
incorporate disaster management into planning processes, and others do not, are less
clear.

This paper seeks to explain how disaster preparedness can foster greater climate change
preparedness. The paper first considers in section two the process of learning from
exposure to hazards and where and how lessons can be learned and transferred. Section
three considers a case study of hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands between
1988 and 2002 and reviews the processes that led Cayman Islanders to perceive that they
had increased their response capacity to tropical storms. Section four highlights the key
elements that led to the increase in tropical storm response capacity by the Cayman
Islands' Government. Section five concludes that learning systems in social institutions
can be an important element in preparedness for tropical storm risk and through analogy
an important component in preparedness for climate change.

2. Learning for climate change preparedness

Learning is a simple concept involving ‘the action of receiving instruction or acquiring
knowledge’ (Collins, 1988), however the mechanisms of learning that lead to the
modification of behaviour or the acquisition of new abilities or responses, in addition to
natural development of knowledge are complex and little understood. This leads us to
ask, what is it that enables us to have ‘insight’ about specific issues? In their study of

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learning processes (Clark et al., 2001a, Clark et al., 2001b) review perspectives on social
learning from the fields of politics, ecology, and institutions among others. Clark et al.
then define learning as critical reflection and analysis that is sustained over a period of
years. Learning emerges from the use of information to produce cognitive change in
understanding both the issues and the options available. Learning can be either supplied
by advocates of specific positions/lessons, or demanded by those not satisfied with the
current situation. Unfortunately learning is rare because it is often unwanted, as
individuals and institutions are often more interested in protecting decisions already
made, than thinking about what should have been done differently. Learning is also hard
work as it requires sustained effort on the part of the learner and the teacher and there is
rarely someone allocated to provide learning support.

2.1 Learning from experience: natural and man-made hazards

With all the uncertainty surrounding future greenhouse gas emissions and impacts, as
well as the complexity of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect, the science of climate
modelling and climate forecasting, see (IPCC, 2001), climate change is a difficult hazard
to prepare for. Dealing with the hazards associated with climate change is made easier by
deconstructing them into natural and man-made hazards. Anthropogenic climate change
can be considered a man-made hazard, and the mitigation focus is on eradicating the
problem, as with other man-made hazards, such as exposure to harmful chemicals or life-
threatening technology. This is because the hazard (concentration of greenhouse gases)
can be controlled by mitigating behaviour (reduced greenhouse gas emissions). Climate
change impacts are expected to manifest in the form of natural hazards, such as
hurricanes, earthquakes, floods and droughts. The adaptation management response to
these is to reduce existing socio-economic pressures and to plan for the hazard.

Literature exists on both the management of human-induced and natural disasters. Much
of the literature considering mitigation of man-made hazards builds on the three step
approach to disaster mitigation, developed by (Kates and Kasperson, 1983), namely:
1) identify the hazards;
2) estimate the risks associated with the hazard;
3) evaluate the consequences of the derived risk (what is the likely loss).

In their thorough review of the consequences of hazards created by human economic

activity, Harremoes et al., 2001, review the lessons learned by not applying this three step
approach. Harremoes et al. present a series of case studies that consider man-made
hazards, including: the ‘ozone hole’ exacerbated by human production of
chlorofluorocarbons and other synthetic chemicals; man-made radiation, exposure to
asbestos, benzene and others. They conclude that in each of their 14 case studies
information was available at an early stage that described the potentially harmful effects
of the products. In each case this information was slow to be taken up, because of a lack
of trust between policy makers and scientists, because the decisions were complex and
they were being made in an environment of ignorance and high stakes (Harremoes et al.,
2001). They conclude that better science, better communication between scientists and
policy makers, and stakeholder participation in decision making could go some way to
mitigating these potential hazards.

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The literature on mitigating natural hazards is slightly different as science cannot
intervene with natural processes (yet) to reduce the size of the hazard; preparedness can
only minimise the consequences of the hazard. A comprehensive body of literature that
considers disaster mitigation offers many guidelines on reducing the consequences of
hazards, see for example, (Thompson and Gaviria, 2004, Burton et al., 1978, Smith,
2001, Blaikie et al., 1994). Risk reduction for disaster preparedness as described by the
(International Red Cross, 2002), involves six steps:
i) disaster preparedness and mitigation (coastal retreat, adaptation funds,
international protocols)
ii) disaster planning (national disaster plans and management, early warning,
evacuation, stockpiles, agency coordination)
iii) Disaster response (coordination, quick appropriate relief, local participation in
assessment)
iv) Disaster recovery (assess risks during rehabilitation, local partners and
procurement, risk reduction advocacy opportunity)
v) Disaster mitigation (hazard proof infrastructure crops and jobs, building
codes, retrofits, land-use regulations, public awareness, insurance)
vi) Development (mainstream risk assessment, strengthen livelihoods, sustainable
resource use, cross-sectoral partnerships, good governance)

This positive and successful approach has been developed from experience in the field
over a number of years. Nonetheless there is still a long way to go to reduce socio-
economic vulnerabilities and to reduce the losses from predictable natural hazards.
While it is likely to take some time for existing knowledge to filter through to have some
effect, reductions in vulnerability may come about through: better scientific information
about the nature, size, frequency, and distribution of natural hazards; by making
knowledge more accessible; and putting in place better systems to learn from existing
knowledge (White et al., 2001). What does this mean for climate change preparedness?
The lessons learned from preparing for man-made and natural hazards need to be
incorporated into any climate change response strategy.

2.2 Policy change

Policy change can occur for many reasons, such as: public demand as a response to
natural and man-made hazards; institutional evolution; socioeconomic change;
cooperative behaviour; or the introduction of new technology and ideas (John, 2003).
Over the past decade political theorists have moved towards three main arguments to
explain why policies change:
i) policy advocacy coalitions,
ii) policy streams and windows
iii) punctuated equilibrium.
Policy advocacy coalitions emerge in response to an issue. These coalitions evolve,
merge or shift overtime as issues change and coalition members change their preferences,
see for example, (Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith, 1993). Policy streams and windows refer
to the complex adaptive policy-making system where new policies constantly evolve.
Windows of opportunity only emerge when these streams match the institutional and

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political context, see for example (Kingdon, 1984). Punctuated equilibrium theory
suggests that policies are stable until ‘punctuated’ by an external event, a person, group,
or some type of catalytic change, see for example (Baumgartner and Jones, 1993).
Clearly all three theories explain to some degree the process of change in disaster
preparedness policies.

There is some evidence that exposure to weather-related hazards can catalyse learning
about hazard impacts and hazard preparedness. Effective learning can, if driven by
certain policy advocates, generate policy change. For example major floods appear to
have created crises that have raised the public consciousness of environmental hazards,
such as flood risk in the UK (Arnell et al., 1984). In their paper, Arnell et al suggest that
the social or economic crisis created by environmental hazards can make the issue
important politically, thereby motivating policy change.

3. Learning to adapt in the Cayman Islands

The Cayman Islands, see Figure 1, experience the effects of the Atlantic Hurricane
Season annually from 1st June until 30th November. From 1887-1987 a tropical storm
passed directly over Grand Cayman every 12.5 years (Clark, 1988). Twice since 1988
have the islands been affected by Category 5 hurricanes: in September 1988, by
Hurricane Gilbert, and in October 1998 they were affected by Hurricane Mitch. The
islands were also affected by a Category 4 hurricane - Hurricane Michelle in November
2000.

To understand policy changes relating to the Cayman Islands' Government hurricane

preparedness, interviews were held with 20 heads of government departments during
2002. The aim was to identify the factors that enabled and constrained institutional
adaptation within the government from Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 to Hurricane Michelle
in 2000. A complete analysis of the data can be found in (Tompkins and Hurlston, 2003).
A clear message came through all the interviews, the government had become better
prepared for hurricanes over the period. This was clearly stated by one of the
respondents.
“In 1988 prior to Gilbert we did our first Hurricane Preparedness Exercise. We were
disorganised because it was our first attempt. It took us 16 hours to get 70% of the
hurricane shutters onto the government buildings complete. Even so this exercise
helped us when Gilbert hit. Even though we weren’t as effective as we are now, we
were better prepared than we were before we did the preparedness exercise. Since
then we have held an exercise every year. We can now protect all Government
buildings in 6 hours. The Andrew’s, Gilbert’s, Michelle’s and Mitch’s have helped to
keep us focused and prepared.” (Tompkins and Hurlston, 2003).

The respondents noted that the change in institutional capacity manifested in a variety of
ways: through changes in constitutional order and laws, and through changes in
organisational structure. Two important regulatory changes occurred in the same period:
notably: an enhanced Building Code in 1995/6; and changes to the Development and
Planning Regulations. The new Building Code, based on the South Florida Building
Code, increased construction standards to ensure new buildings are designed to withstand

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hurricanes. The new Development and Planning Regulations moved coastal set back for
waterfront property from the low water mark to the high water mark island-wide, and in
the Hotel/Tourism zone the set back was increased from 100 feet to 130 feet.

Figure 1 The Cayman Islands

Supporting and guiding the laws, are several policy and planning documents, including:
the National Hurricane Plan (since 1989) and Vision 20081. An example of the change in
importance of hurricane preparedness can be seen in the inclusion of Strategy 15 in
Visions 2008. Strategy 15 states:
“We will support comprehensive contingency planning for natural and man-made
disasters and incidents to ensure the preservation of human life, protection of property
and economic recovery of the country.” (Government of the Cayman Islands, 1999)
It is proposed that this is achieved through the promotion of six key actions:
1. establish a formal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate all emergency
management;
2. establish a National Disaster Fund for post-disaster recovery;
3. create/modify legislation to support the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters;
4. create/modify legislation to support the prevention and mitigation of man-made
disasters;
5. implement a disaster management study;
6. prepare a comprehensive full disaster economic recovery plan.
Plans without implementation are useless. Hence it is the degree to which policies such as
these are adopted that will mark their success or failure. Changes in organisational
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Vision 2008 lays down some fundamental principles for development including: open and accountable
government; infrastructural development plans; growth management objectives; disaster management; as
well as objectives regarding planning for the environment, the economy and health of the population.

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structure have supported these changes. The two most significant include: the creation
and later expansion of a formal Department of Environment; and the creation and
mainstreaming of a National Hurricane Committee. The Department of Environment
evolved from the small conservation-oriented Natural Resources Unit with 4 staff in
1988, to a department with 26 staff, integrated into the development planning process and
a prominent profile within the Ministry of Tourism, Environment, Development and
Commerce by 2002. An equally important development that took place was the
development and mainstreaming of a central organising body for the Cayman Islands
hurricane preparedness and response activities – the National Hurricane Committee. This
permanent, yet informal, body2 currently comprises 13 sub-committees and is chaired by
the country’s Chief Secretary (National Hurricane Committee, 1999). Starting with a
small group of volunteer civil servants, the National Hurricane Committee now engages
members of the public, private sector contractors, religious groups and NGO’s as part of
its activities to mainstream the concept of hurricane preparedness.

4. Key elements in the adaptation process in the Cayman Islands

The processes of change in the Cayman Islands reveal evidence of several drivers of
policy change. Advocacy coalitions were in action, policy windows clearly appeared and
the policy equilibrium was punctuated through exposure to storms.

4.1 Advocacy coalitions: emergence of the National Hurricane Committee

In the Cayman Islands the typical small island resource constraints that lead government
agents to multi-task and to rely on small networks and volunteers can be seen in a
positive light as they contributed to the development of the National Hurricane
Committee and a strong committee ethic among civil servants. The voluntary nature of
the groups and the informal social support networks that developed in the Cayman
Islands are increasingly being noted in the literature on building informal local level
resilience to disasters, see for example (Berkes and Jolly, 2002), and (Paton et al., 2001).

Many respondents attributed the increased effectiveness of the Cayman Islands'

Government to hurricane risk to changes that were advocated by the National Hurricane
Committee. When asked to consider what had led to these successes almost all
respondents identified the same characteristics: the participation of committed volunteers;
small group size; inclusivity across government departments; and a willingness to
consider any approaches that might work. The role of a motivated leader (in the form of
the Fire Chief) was highlighted by most respondents as central to increasing the profile of
the hurricane risk issue in government and in engaging individuals across a wide range of
departments. Several noted that strong leadership of the NHC, the diligence with which
the original members of the NHC had established the committee, and the hard work and
effort they had invested had motivated others to participate.

Willing participation and active support of the National Hurricane Committee in its
hurricane preparedness by volunteers in the civil service, has contributed to the islands
taking hurricane risk seriously. All of the preparedness activities take individuals away
2
There is no formal legislation establishing the National Hurricane Committee.

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from their other duties and responsibilities within their departments, but it is recognised
that these activities now play an important role in development planning and disaster
preparedness in the Cayman Islands. This change in perspective has lead to the
prioritisation of hurricane preparedness and response above other priorities.

4.2 Punctuated equilibrium: crisis as catalyst?

Catalytic events, such as the Hurricane Gilbert’s, Mitch’s and Michelle’s were noted by
most respondents as important dimensions in raising the public profile of tropical
hurricane threats. Most mentioned the importance of hurricanes in influencing policy
change in formal government institutions, see Box 1.

Box 1 Raised awareness as a result of exposure to weather hazards by sector

Construction: “A lot of the new school buildings are being built to the South Florida Building
code which took into account the hurricanes like Andrew which devastated Miami.”
Respondent 7, 020626

Development planning: “The Development Plan is reviewed at least once every five years. It
was a coincidence that this current review is taking place after Michelle. However Michelle did
raise awareness about the issues, particularly about the need for increased water front set
backs.” Respondent 2, 020705

Financial impacts: “The losses from Michelle were approximately $40 million to the country,
the claim for government is not yet settled, but the government losses could be in the region of
$16 million.” Respondent 5, 020704

Health care: “Before 1987 we only had a general 2 page document about what the government
would do in the event of a hurricane, not who would do what. In 1988 Gilbert hit, and we
learned a lot of lessons about health services preparedness. For example, the health centres that
are down in the districts, even before the hurricane season we have clearly identified which staff
will be allocated to these centres, and what the centres should contain. That way … we have a
clear direction, this is better than before.” Respondent 15, 020711

Infrastructural development: “One of the lessons learned came from our observation and
assistance in helping the recovery in Honduras from the devastation of Hurricane Mitch. As a
result we now have a heightened awareness of the possible impacts….That is why PWD
commissioned a report on wind and wind borne debris.” Respondent 5, 020704

Source: (Tompkins and Hurlston, 2003)

As the last comment in Box 1 suggests, policy change can be built on lessons learned
from the exposure of other regions to similar hazards. By supporting other nations that
have experienced severe hurricane impacts, the Cayman Islands have themselves learned
indirectly about the potentially devastating impacts of tropical hurricane impacts and the
need to be prepared. Exposure to hurricane impact appears to have been an important, but
not sufficient criteria, in raising the profile of hurricane risk in the Cayman Islands. More
important is exposure coupled with deductive reasoning that links the hazard to the
impacts suffered, as well as linking this reasoning to future repeat events.

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While many people within the government have made this causal link, this deductive
reasoning is not universal. Often short term economic development or even post-storm
reconstruction leads to maladaptive decisions, such as building in flood-prone areas,
which compromises longer term sustainable development objectives. One respondent
pointed out that there are several examples where this link has not been made:
“After Hurricane Michelle the whole beach had disappeared. It’s a good example of
beach erosion. There you see the interaction of nature and man and you see who wins.
They have put up walls they have brought down scientists. They have put up groynes
and artificial sea balls. It doesn't work, the sea simply keeps eroding..” Respondent 7,
020626.

Even with public education, some respondents felt that, at present, policies are made that
ignore internal advice and that lead to developments which may not adhere to planning
guidelines or the overall direction of the Islands. This suggests that the current policy
equilibrium requires additional catalysts to embed risk management more formally into
government planning.

4.3 Policy streams and windows: persuasion

While hurricanes themselves can act as catalysts for change, persuasion, in the form of
command by the state, education, moral argument, the conviction of a strong leader, the
motivation of a popular champion, or profile raising international conventions can re-
direct streams of thought and dialogue thereby creating the space for new policies to
emerge, see (Young, 2002).

Several changes have occurred in the Cayman Islands that have changed the context in
which policy decisions about risk are made. At the national level, the National Hurricane
Committee has become an influential agency. Internationally, the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change has come into existence. Locally, dialogues
about risk have changed as a result of changing perceptions about terrorist threats since
September 11th 2001. The institutional context has changed since 1999 when the UK
government launched its White Paper ‘Partnership for Progress and Prosperity: Britain
and the Overseas Territories’, which set out the policy on the UK Overseas Territories.
The White Paper has been implemented through various initiatives such as the production
of Environment Charters in the various UK Overseas Territories. As the political context
has changed windows of opportunity for changes to the Cayman Islands' Governments
risk management policy have emerged. For example, September 11th 2001 clearly
provided an important window of opportunity to consider risk management. With regard
to hurricane risk in the Cayman Islands many respondents felt that persuasion from the
various sources had played an important role in coalescing support for the government
response, thereby supporting policy change towards hurricane risk.

5. Learning for climate change hazards

Most respondents described the policy changes that have occurred within the Cayman
Islands' Government towards hurricane preparedness either as a production of organic
evolution or explicit planning. The combination of hurricane-induced crises as catalysts,

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coupled with advocacy by a respected committee, clearly contributed to the increased
effectiveness of the Cayman Islands’ Government response to storm risk.

It is difficult to isolate specific driving forces as most respondents recall differently the
motivation for the changes. Irrespective of motivation, respondents were very clear about
the factors they perceived to be in place that have improved the Cayman Islands’
Government storm management, see Box 2. These factors include: education and
information about hurricane risk; risk management practices; clear roles and
responsibilities; inclusion and integration across government departments.

Box 2: Perceptions of the key elements in planning for hurricane preparedness

Alertness/awareness of risk: “There is a constant state of alertness and preparedness for

hurricanes.” Respondent 4, 020627
Clear roles and responsibilities: “Our role is to provide coordination and communication as
necessary in the event of a natural disaster.” Respondent 7, 020626
Flexible decision making processes: “Coastal vulnerability mapping based on several factors,
with the discretion built in for the decision makers is what is needed in planning for
the future.” Respondent 3, 020708
Inclusion: “The NHC has been so successful because it has included all the different sectors and
the civil servants. It doesn’t matter how good any individual is on their own success
comes from working together.” Respondent 9, 020627
Integrated approach: “There is good structure, not just within this organisation, but it ties in
with the overall national structure. The NHC takes over the running of the country
in practical terms. Somehow we all tie into that network. Respondent 13, 020710
Learning based approach: The plan that you see today is a lot better than the one we had a one
year ago, and the one from one year ago is better than the year before. We use our
experience every year from actual events to make our plans better. Respondent 13,
020710
Preparedness exercises: “These people are very serious, they do an annual exercise - it showed
last year, with the three hurricanes in a row, these people were doing their things
day and night. Things were alright. I think given the circumstances they did an
awfully good job.” Respondent 13, 020710
Risk management: “The risk management approach started in 1994 with an insurance and risk
management study that identified our possible losses and what this might do for our
image..... In response to this we set up a risk management advisory committee
which advises EXCO on risk management.” Respondent 5, 020704
Support network: “We have a good organisation here so we have back up and we provide back
up.” Respondent 7, 020626

How can this knowledge be embedded in the institutions so that it can be translated into
preparedness for climate change? The survey respondents identified that for learning to
occur, information and knowledge would have to be both supplied, or ‘externally pushed’
as well as meeting their demands through ‘internal pulling’, see Box 3. The pushing
forces may come from external intervention, impact information and public education or
awareness programmes. However there also needs to be the demand for learning from
those dissatisfied with the current state of affairs, this could be in the form of inclusion of

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meteorologist and climate scientists in decision making, industry/government
partnerships, or greater political consensus about climate change as a policy issue.

Box 3 Learning from storm preparedness to take the climate agenda forward

External intervention: “We are starting from the premise that no one knows anything. I am in the
middle, neither an economist nor a climate scientist, just an environmental manager trying to get the
point across, I am not speaking from any level of expertise, so it is difficult to get any credibility when
talking about this issue. This is why I think we need outside intervention to raise awareness.”
Respondent 3, 020708

Impact information: “Some concise information, coordinated through a government department, on

what we are planning for.” Respondent 17, 020705

Include climate scientists in decision making: “..the climate scientists should be involved (they) are the
ones who understand intimately what is going on. A problem with a lot of the climate research is that it
has been moved out of the scientific arena, and a lot of governments are taking on how to respond in
agencies separate from the met services in their countries.” Respondent 11, 020710

Industry/government partnership: “Government will have to lead by example and put money aside, and
to prove that it will keep the money aside for rebuilding if it is needed. If the private sector feels the
money will be spent on other things they won’t contribute.” Respondent 2, 020705

Longer term planning: “The idea that we are only dealing with today and tomorrow be damned has got
to stop.” Respondent 3, 020708

Public education/ raising awareness:

“What we need is education and respect for the environment….that acts as a buffer against bad weather.
We have campaigns in school and we try and fund nature related tourism projects…..things like this
keep people’s eye on the ball with respect to the environment. It reminds them that people will travel
here to see nature and that’s why we should pay attention.” Respondent 6, 020708
“Because climate change has socio-economic impacts, it has ….implications for sustainable
development. This issue is much larger than most people are aware. That is why we need education.
Education and awareness raising are the first steps.” Respondent 11, 020710
“We are trying to raise public awareness about the risk of hurricanes at the moment. In addition to the
TV and newspaper we produce the National Hurricane Handbook annually….we could do more but
resources are limited.” Respondent 7, 020626

Political consensus: “People are sceptical because of the US’s position versus the European position.
Until there is consensus we won’t be able to get the heads of Department to direct resources to solve
these issues.” Respondent 17, 020705

Many respondents recognised that, irrespective of the social and policy learning that
occurs, effective institutions that fit within the local social and cultural context, rather
than being externally imposed are critical. For this reason, respondents suggestions about
how the Cayman Islands' Government could take the climate agenda forward are of
particular interest. Respondents, building on their own local knowledge, suggested that
legislation should be modified to build in climate change risk, particularly to:
ƒ mitigate against specific climate impacts such as sea level rise;
ƒ modify laws for construction of roads and buildings to increase their ability to
withstand every day weather;

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 ƒ create a Disaster Fund for relief in situations of extreme weather; increase the
minimum elevation for developments on reclaimed land to prevent future
flooding;
ƒ develop a national energy policy.
Many of these suggestions have already been championed in Vision 2008, the
government’s policy planning document (Government of the Cayman Islands, 1999).
Other suggestions relate to raising the profile of climate change, for example by creating
an inclusive network that is driven by scientific understanding of climate change to
facilitate learning about the issue; and developing new regulations or organisational
structures to manage future hazards.

6. Conclusions
Lessons for responding to climate change can be learned from both man-made and
natural disasters. Man-made disaster literature can drive an understanding of how best to
mitigate climate change, and natural disasters can provide numerous lessons on how best
to adapt to climate change. Using this analogy means that for some types of future
climate change, notably where extreme events are likely to mirror past extreme events, or
extreme events which occur in other similar parts of the world, there is no need to
reinvent the wheel – lessons can the transferred. The question is how to transfer the
lessons.

Useful means of understanding motivations for policy change can be found in main
stream political economy, three main explanations: policy windows, punctuated
equilibrium and advocacy coalitions. These theories can be used to identify appropriate
times in the policy cycle to introduce new concepts or ideas to ensure that they have
greatest effectiveness, to develop links between policies to ensure their survival, and to
use advocacy coalitions to support the policies. This study suggests that the conditions
that enabled policy change to occur for hurricane preparedness are appropriate (in the
same context) for policy change to develop for climate change preparedness. These
conditions stem from windows of opportunity that emerge as a result of exposure to a
hazard or from persuasion from internal or external sources. Once the opportunity has
arisen three steps seems important (again in this context): individual cognition, informal
group action, supporting formal institutional change. At present it is not possible to know
if these lessons apply to the Cayman Islands only or if they are transferable to other
islands in the Caribbean or to other social, political and cultural contexts.

Acknowledgements
This paper has been largely inspired by two projects. One, a UK ESRC-funded project
undertaken by Dr Clare Johnson, Sylvia Tunstall, and Professor Edmund Penning-
Rowsell ‘Crises as catalysts for adaptation: human responses to major floods’, presented
at the Policy Studies Institute in May 2004. The project was funded by the Environment
and Human Behaviour Programme, see http://www.psi.org.uk/ehb/projectsjohnson.html.
The other project is an on-going in the Cayman Islands. The Cayman Islands work was

13
paid for by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and the ideas in this paper
were developed through discussions with Dr Neil Adger. We would like to thank all the
heads of department in the Cayman Islands' Government for spending time with us
discussing these issues. Special thanks go to Gina Ebanks-Petrie for her support of the
Cayman Islands project work.

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15
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Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex post evaluations of CO2
Defining response capacity to enhance climate –Based Taxes: A Survey, Tyndall Centre Working
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Agnolucci, P. & Ekins, P. (2004) The Adger, W. N., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E. L.
Announcement Effect and environmental (2004) The political economy of cross-scale
taxation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53 networks in resource co-management, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 65
Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., &
O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A., Lorenzoni, I.,
local scenarios for climate change mitigation O’Riordan, T., and Jones, M., (2005) Mapping
and adaptation, Part 1: A framing of the East actors involved in climate change policy
of England, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54 networks in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working
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and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A. and O’Riordan, T.,
high-resolution grids of monthly climate for (2005) Developing regional and local scenarios
Europe and the globe: the observed record for climate change mitigation and adaptation:
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Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social Bleda, M. and Shackley, S. (2005) The formation
vulnerability to climate change for Africa, of belief in climate change in business
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56 organisations: a dynamic simulation model,
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Public Perceptions of Underground Coal Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. A. (2005) Natural
Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre hazards and climate change: what knowledge
Working Paper 57 is transferable?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69

Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social

Simulation of The Public Perceptions of
Weather Events and their Effect upon the
Development of Belief in Anthropogenic
Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58

Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling

Innovation and Threshold Effects
In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 59

Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004)

Scaling adaptation: climate change response
and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 60

Brooks, N. (2004) Drought in the African Sahel:

Long term perspectives and future prospects,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 61

Barker, T. (2004) The transition to

sustainability: a comparison of economics
approaches, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 62

Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F. and Kovats, S.

(2004) Floods, health and climate change: a
strategic review, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 63

Peters, M.D. and Powell, J.C. (2004) Fuel Cells for

a Sustainable Future II, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 64