Marriott Report - Subodh
Marriott Report - Subodh
[email protected]
Investment Recommendation BUY
Marriott International (MAR) Current Price $45.93
Price target $54.67
Date 17/12/2006
Key Points
¾ Incentive Fee Growth Potential: Incentive
fee is paid over and above the management
fee. I expect incentive fee to grow by 3%,
4%, 4.5% in the year 2006, 2007, 2008
respectively. With no offsetting expense to
incentive fee, this growth would flow
straight through to the company’s bottom
line.
¾ Biggest Player in Timeshare Segment:
Timeshare constitutes less than 10% of the
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MAR
revenue in the US lodging industry and has a
Key Stock Statistics great growth potential as evidenced in its
52-Week Price Range $32.32 - $46.97 CAGR of 18.5% per annum from 1975
Market Capitalization (B) 18.16 onwards. Marriott with 45% of its revenues
Shares Outstanding (M) 395.39 accruing from Timeshare is expected to
Institutional Ownership 59% grow this segment by 10% in the year 2006
60-Month Beta 0.96 and stabilize it to 8% in the next 3 years.
Dividend Yield 0.50% ¾ International Growth: There exists a
Price/Earnings (ttm) 31.79 tremendous growth opportunities in the
Price/Book 6.92
growing economies of Europe and
Price/Sales 1.55
ROA (ttm) 7.24%
Asia/Pacific. Marriott, with its strong brand
ROE (ttm) 24.45% and more than 50% of its rooms located
Enterprise Value / Revenue (ttm) 1.65 outside United States is well positioned for
Enterprise Value / EBITDA (ttm) 16.87 international growth.
¾ Higher asset turnover to drive
profitability: Marriott differs from its large
Valuation
cap peers by focusing on running the hotels
Discounted Cash Flow $54.67
of property owners. It currently owns only
Market Multiples $55.84
0.6% of the rooms under management,
which contributed to its high asset turnover
Investment Summary ratio of 1.35 in 2005. Starwood, a close
Marriott is an attractive player at this point of competitor witnessed asset turnover ratio of
business cycle in the lodging industry. I initiate 0.48 in the same period.
a BUY recommendation on Marriott as its ¾ Strong Balance Sheet: With a low long-
multiple growth drivers including incentive-fee term D/E ratio of 0.6 compared to the
growth potential, international unit expansion industry average of 1.2, management
opportunities and powerful return on asset expects to take advantage of its under
strategy bodes well with its intrinsic value of leveraged balance sheet to repurchase
$54.67. Based on its current market price I additional $1.25 billion of stock in 2007
expect MAR to deliver 21% return over a driving up the ROCE.
horizon period of 1 year.
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Company Description significant increase in ROCE through increased
Marriott International Inc. (MAR) is the world’s profit margin and improved asset-turnover.
largest lodging company in revenue terms and
has a network of 2,700 self operated and Increasing Revenue per Available Room
franchised properties which are spread across
more than 65 countries. The main business
segments of the company are: Full- service
lodging, Select- service lodging, Extended-stay
lodging, Timeshare and Synthetic fuel. The
timeshare segment includes the development
and operation of resorts and selling timeshare
units to clients. Some of the well-known brands
are the Ritz Carlton, Renaissance, Courtyard
and Marriott Vacation club.
Stable Occupancy Rate
Financial Snaphot
Figures in USD mn
2003 2004 2005
except per share data
Revenues 9,014 10,099 11,550
Operating Income 377 477 555
Net Income 502 596 669
Total Assets 8,177 8,668 8,530
EPS (Diluted) 2.03 2.48 2.89
2005
Industry Analysis
I believe that the industry is attractive for Following is the detailed analysis of the
making an investment. My recommendation is important industry forces:
based on low threat of new entrants, low threat
of substitutes, medium buyer power, low Threat of new entrants - Low: Hotel business
supplier power and medium rivalry in the is asset intensive and existing hotel chains have
industry. The low rate of increase in the supply strong nationwide brand presence through
of rooms, the high pricing environment and multiple brands catering to different customer
stable occupancy rate over the last 4 year had segments. Thus the barriers to new entrant,
made lodging an attractive industry. trying to establish regional or national presence,
The lodging industry is a mature industry with are quite high. Moreover, the industry is mature
low revenue growth and high degree of with projections of modest growth rate and is
consolidation. About 65% of hotel properties prone to demand shocks, like the one
are affiliated to a brand and 54% of total experienced on 9/11. In addition, there are
inventory of rooms are controlled by ten significant economies of scale for larger hotel
companies through 59 brands. After a 40% drop chains, through centralized reservation systems,
in demand for rooms post 9/11, the demand has advertising expenditure spread over larger
been growing at approximately 20% and is inventory of rooms and greater bargaining
expected to stabilize between 8-10%. The rate power with suppliers resulting in reduced
of recovery of lodging industry was also helped supplies cost.
by low rate of supply growth, which ranged
between 0.5-1.0% during last two years and an Threat of substitute - Low: While on a
average growth rate of 2.4% for ten years before business or leisure trip, there are not too many
that. Due to favorable lodging supply-demand viable alternatives to staying in a hotel. The
gap, the companies were able to achieve alternatives are vacation properties that are
available on a time-share basis and the
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
properties offered by individual owners. Hotel Strategy Analysis
companies have made substantial inroads in Marriott differs from its large cap peers,
time-sharing option with Marriott deriving 45% Starwood and Hilton Hotels, in terms of
of its revenue from time-sharing business and ownership of rooms under management. At the
Starwood deriving 15% of revenue from time- end of the year 2005, Marriott owns only 0.6%
sharing properties. Vacation properties offered of rooms under management compared to 15%
by independent owners are expected to remain a for Starwood and 4% for Hilton. This is one
very small part of business, due to the issues of reason why Marriott beats Starwood hands
connecting customers with renters, size of the down on AT and thus on ROCE. Marriott
rental property, reliability and limited currently has AT of 1.35 as compared to 0.48
availability issues. for Starwood.
12%
Rivalry - Medium: The rivalry among firms is 9.6%
8%
modest, since the industry is mature with 7.0%
modest growth rate projections in near future. 4%
2.1%
The competition in the industry is not cut-throat, 0%
2003 2004 2005
as the demand has been growing at a decent clip
during last few years, but at the same time, the Marriott Starw ood
large number of players in the hotel industry and In the timeshare segment, Marriott, Starwood
their side-by-side presence in most of the and Hilton are the major players in this segment
geographical areas increases the competition to and together accounted for 43% of US
increase their customer base. timeshare revenues in 2005. Marriott is however
most exposed to Timeshare with 45% of its
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
revenues accruing from it. This exposure is due improvements that extend the useful life of
to Marriott’s traditional focus on property property and equipment. Its estimates seem
management instead of ownership. The reasonable and no adjustments are necessary.
proportion is smaller but still significant at 15%
for Hilton & Starwood. Leases: In order to assess true risk associated
with the firms, we need to capitalize operating
Timeshare revenues of top 3 players ($ mn) leases and see if the debt to equity ratio is still
2,000 within reasonable limit. On making analytical
1,721 entry to capitalize operating leases for Marriott
1,500 1,502
1,279 the long-term debt to equity ratio goes up from
1,000 982
712
0.5 to 0.8. The long-term debt to equity ratio is
500 500 554 still within reasonable limits for the firms and
345 421
0
does not raise any red flags.
2003 2004 2005
Marriott: Capitalizing Operating Leases
Marriott Hilton Starwood Year Obligation PV
2006 124 116.94
2007 132 117.39
Accounting Analysis
2008 126 105.67
Overall, the financial statements of Marriott
2009 116 91.74
reflect the economic reality of the firm and
provide adequate disclosure. The accounting 2010 112 83.54
policies, where I believe that the company has Thereafter 873 507.70
flexibility are: revenue recognition, fixed assets Total 1022.98
depreciation, leases and rewards program and
stock based compensation. Following is the Rewards Program: Marriott defers recognition
discussion of these items: of revenue equal to the estimation of future
rewards obligation. It determines the fair value
Revenue recognition: Marriott recognizes of the future redemption obligation based on
revenue once the services have been delivered statistical formulas, which project timing of
and the collection of revenue is measurable and future point redemption based on historical
reasonably certain. For Guest services, the firm levels, including an estimate of the points that
recognizes revenue, once the rooms have been will never be redeemed, and an estimate of the
occupied and the services have been delivered. points that will eventually be redeemed. Current
Franchise fee is recorded as it is earned. accounting policy for rewards obligations seems
Marriott records management fee considering reasonable, but investors need to be aware of the
the amounts that are receivable, if the contracts assumptions that went behind estimating future
were terminated as of the day of recording the obligations.
revenue. I believe that the revenue recognition
practice of Marriott is reasonable. Stock based compensation: Marriott accounts
for stock based compensation using the intrinsic
Fixed assets depreciation: Fixed assets value method under the recognition and
comprise a large portion of lodging companies’ measurement principles of APB Opinion No. 25.
total assets. Depreciation accounting requires It does not reflect cost of this compensation in
estimation of useful life, residual values and net income, but disclose the affect of conversion
potential impairment and capitalization policy. to SFAS No. 123 in its report. In 2005, Marriott
Marriott depreciates PPE over 2-20 year period, changed the method that it uses to estimate the
whereas a close competitor Starwood obligation under stock-options plan from Black-
depreciates them over 3-40 year period. Scholes to Binomial options pricing. Marriott
Furthermore, it capitalizes the costs of increased the estimated life of stock-options by
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
1 year, while decreasing the estimated volatility other income by 1.35% contributed to
by 1% and increasing estimated dividend from improving profitability.
$0.32 to $0.36. Since these changes have
offsetting effects, I do not believe that they Historical Profitability Data of Marriott
7.00%
cause any material distortion. 5.90% 5.79%
6.00% 5.57%
5.00%
Financial Analysis 4.00% 3.29%
3.04%
3.00%
Time series analysis – Marriott International 2.00%
1.00%
Marriott Starwood
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
rate. The scenario analysis table shows the -5.0%
Operating Inc Before Unusual Items 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unusual Expense (Income) 2.63% 0.70% o 0.00% 0.00%
Restructuring Charge 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Litigation 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Unusual Expense (Income) 1.83% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Operating Income After Unusual Items 5.51% 3.89% 4.10% 4.75% 4.85%
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Net 2,460.00 2,560.00 2,513.00 2,389.00 2,341.00 2,561.68 2,740.45 2,937.10 3,070.66 3,214.91 3,214.91
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Gross 2,869.00 3,027.00 3,070.00 3,070.00 3,126.00 3,501.12 3,851.23 4,236.36 4,575.26 4,941.28 5,169.71
% of Revenue 37% 36% 34% 30% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Accumulated Depreciation (409.00) (467.00) (557.00) (681.00) (785.00) (939.44) (1,110.78) (1,299.25) (1,504.60) (1,726.38) (1,954.80)
Goodwill, Net 977.00 923.00 923.00 923.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00
Intangibles, Net 657.00 495.00 526.00 513.00 466.00 436.64 407.28 377.91 348.55 319.19 288.94
Intangibles, Gross 837.00 674.00 730.00 738.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00
Accumulated Intangible Amortization (180.00) (179.00) (204.00) (225.00) (213.00) (242.36) (271.72) (301.09) (330.45) (359.81) (390.06)
Long Term Investments 314.00 475.00 468.00 319.00 582.00 756.84 934.16 1,142.74 1,335.24 1,567.23 1,567.23
% of Total Assets 3% 6% 6% 4% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Long Term Notes Receivable 1,547.00 1,514.00 1,486.00 1,515.00 968.00 1,084.16 1,192.58 1,311.83 1,416.78 1,530.12 1,530.12
% of Revenue 20% 18% 16% 15% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Other Assets 405.00 556.00 914.00 1,063.00 1,239.00 1,118.03 1,229.83 1,352.81 1,461.04 1,577.92 1,577.92
% of Revenue 5% 7% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Deferred Income Tax 251.00 397.00 554.00 - - - - - -
Other 405.00 556.00 663.00 666.00 685.00 - - - - - -
Total Assets 9,107.00 8,296.00 8,177.00 8,668.00 8,530.00 11,092.58 13,691.44 16,748.39 19,569.78 22,969.91 23,659.01
Liabilities
Current Portion LT Debt/Cap Leases 32.00 221.00 64.00 489.00 56.00 266.83 333.90 412.13 504.14 589.07 606.74
Accounts Payable 607.00 505.00 584.00 570.00 591.00 703.78 720.48 846.21 845.81 981.57 1,011.02
Days Payable 27.62 24.99 23.80 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07
Accrued Expenses 322.00 373.00 412.00 508.00 559.00 595.53 668.14 743.18 808.62 864.30 890.23
% of Revenue 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Other Current Liabilities 1,009.00 1,084.00 710.00 789.00 786.00 1,189.68 1,308.64 1,439.51 1,554.67 1,679.04 1,729.42
Other Payables 621.00 662.00 385.00 416.00 355.00 706.96 777.65 855.42 923.85 997.76 1,027.69
% of Revenue 8% 8% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Discontinued Operations 367.00 390.00 0.00 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 21.00 32.00 325.00 373.00 431.00 482.72 530.99 584.09 630.82 681.28 701.72
% of Revenue 0% 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Total Current Liabilities 1,970.00 2,183.00 1,770.00 2,356.00 1,992.00 2,755.82 3,031.16 3,441.02 3,713.25 4,113.99 4,237.41
Long Term Debt 2,708.00 1,553.00 1,391.00 836.00 1,681.00 2,103.55 2,596.39 3,176.10 3,711.13 4,355.92 4,486.60
% OF Total Assets 30% 19% 17% 10% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
Minority Interest 6.00 12.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.33
Other Liabilities 951.00 987.00 1,172.00 1,383.00 1,594.00 1,667.94 1,834.73 2,018.21 2,179.66 2,354.04 2,424.66
% of Revenue 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Total Liabilities 5,629.00 4,723.00 4,339.00 4,587.00 5,278.00 6,538.31 7,473.28 8,646.32 9,615.05 10,834.94 11,159.99
Shareholders' Equity
Common Equity 3,478.00 3,573.00 3,838.00 4,081.00 3,252.00 4,554.27 6,218.16 8,102.07 9,954.74 12,134.97 12,499.02
Common Stock 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.09
Additional Paid-In Capital 3,378.00 3,224.00 3,317.00 3,423.00 3,564.00 4,388.03 5,483.62 6,747.82 7,873.75 9,275.96 9,554.23
% of Total Assets 37% 39% 41% 39% 42% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Retained Earnings 941.00 1,126.00 1,505.00 1,951.00 2,500.00 3,298.27 4,165.28 5,113.57 6,129.45 7,219.76 7,436.35
Treasury Stock - Common (503.00) (667.00) (865.00) (1,197.00) (2,667.00) (2,987.04) (3,285.74) (3,614.32) (3,903.46) (4,215.74) (4,342.21)
% of Revenue (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23)
ESOP Debt Guarantee (291.00) - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Comprehensive Income (50.00) (113.00) (122.00) (99.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (152.44)
Total Shareholders' Equity 3,478.00 3,573.00 3,838.00 4,081.00 3,252.00 4,554.27 6,218.16 8,102.07 9,954.74 12,134.97 12,499.02
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 9,107.00 8,296.00 8,177.00 8,668.00 8,530.00 11,092.58 13,691.44 16,748.39 19,569.78 22,969.91 23,659.01
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Net 31.67% 30.42% 27.88% 23.66% 20.27%
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Gross 36.93% 35.97% 34.06% 30.40% 27.06%
Liabilities
Current Portion LT Debt/Cap Leases 0.41% 2.63% 0.71% 4.84% 0.48%
Accounts Payable 7.81% 6.00% 6.48% 5.64% 5.12%
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses 4.15% 4.43% 4.57% 5.03% 4.84%
% of Sales
Other Current Liabilities 12.99% 12.88% 7.88% 7.81% 6.81%
Other Payables 7.99% 7.87% 4.27% 4.12% 3.07%
Shareholders' Equity
Common Equity 44.77% 42.46% 42.58% 40.41% 28.16%
Common Stock 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Additional Paid-In Capital 43.49% 38.31% 36.80% 33.89% 30.86%
% of Total Assets
Retained Earnings 12.11% 13.38% 16.70% 19.32% 21.65%
Treasury Stock - Common -6.48% -7.93% -9.60% -11.85% -23.09%
% of Sales Growth
ESOP Debt Guarantee -3.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Comprehensive Income -0.64% -1.34% -1.35% -0.98% -1.28%
Total Shareholders' Equity 44.77% 42.46% 42.58% 40.41% 28.16%
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 117.24% 98.59% 90.71% 85.83% 73.85%
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures (560.00) (292.00) (210.00) (181.00) (780.00) (375.12) (350.11) (385.12) (338.91) (366.02) (228.43)
Sale of Asset 555.00
Purchase/Sale of Investments (21.00) (75.00) (231.00) (174.84) (177.32) (208.58) (192.50) (231.99) 0.00
Other Investing Activities, Net (475.00) (120.00) 48.00 141.00 583.00 4.81 (220.22) (242.24) (213.17) (230.23) 0.00
Net Cash from Investing Activities (481.00) 317.00 311.00 287.00 (130.00) 9.85 (747.65) (835.94) (744.58) (828.24) (228.43)
Financing Activities
Cash Dividends Paid (61.00) (65.00) (68.00) (73.00) (84.00) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (896.54)
Sale/Repurchase of Stock, Net (159.00) (217.00) (271.00) (458.00) (1,519.00) 503.99 796.88 935.62 836.79 1,089.93 151.90
Common Stock, Net (159.00) (217.00) (271.00) (458.00) (1,519.00) 824.03 1,095.59 1,264.20 1,125.93 1,402.20 278.37
Treasury Stock (320.04) (298.70) (328.57) (289.15) (312.28) (126.47)
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net 784.00 (1,165.00) (361.00) (141.00) 303.00 633.38 559.91 657.94 627.05 729.71 148.35
Short Term Debt, Net 210.83 67.07 78.23 92.02 84.93 17.67
Long Term Debt, Net 784.00 (1,165.00) (361.00) (141.00) 303.00 422.55 492.84 579.71 535.04 644.79 130.68
Other Financing Activities, Net 0.00 0.00 17.00 35.00 26.00 73.94 166.79 183.47 161.46 174.37 70.62
Net Cash from Financing Activities 564.00 (1,447.00) (683.00) (637.00) (1,274.00) 1,211.31 1,523.59 1,777.03 1,625.30 1,994.01 (525.68)
Net Change in Cash 486.00 (614.00) 31.00 541.00 (567.00) 2,589.90 1,916.89 2,242.92 2,194.66 2,605.11 667.26
Cash - Beginning Balance 326.00 812.00 198.00 229.00 770.00 203.00 3,003.90 4,920.80 7,163.71 9,358.37 11,963.48
Cash - Ending Balance 812.00 198.00 229.00 770.00 203.00 3,003.90 4,920.80 7,163.71 9,358.37 11,963.48 12,579.62
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Cost of Equity
Growth
3% 56.15 54.67 53.25
Rate