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Marriott Report - Subodh

Marriott International is recommended as a buy. Key points include: 1) Incentive fees are expected to grow and directly boost profits. 2) Marriott has a leading position in the high-growth timeshare segment. 3) International growth opportunities exist as Marriott has over 50% of rooms outside the US.

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Subodh Kesri
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
331 views15 pages

Marriott Report - Subodh

Marriott International is recommended as a buy. Key points include: 1) Incentive fees are expected to grow and directly boost profits. 2) Marriott has a leading position in the high-growth timeshare segment. 3) International growth opportunities exist as Marriott has over 50% of rooms outside the US.

Uploaded by

Subodh Kesri
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri

[email protected]
Investment Recommendation BUY
Marriott International (MAR) Current Price $45.93
Price target $54.67
Date 17/12/2006

Key Points
¾ Incentive Fee Growth Potential: Incentive
fee is paid over and above the management
fee. I expect incentive fee to grow by 3%,
4%, 4.5% in the year 2006, 2007, 2008
respectively. With no offsetting expense to
incentive fee, this growth would flow
straight through to the company’s bottom
line.
¾ Biggest Player in Timeshare Segment:
Timeshare constitutes less than 10% of the
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MAR
revenue in the US lodging industry and has a
Key Stock Statistics great growth potential as evidenced in its
52-Week Price Range $32.32 - $46.97 CAGR of 18.5% per annum from 1975
Market Capitalization (B) 18.16 onwards. Marriott with 45% of its revenues
Shares Outstanding (M) 395.39 accruing from Timeshare is expected to
Institutional Ownership 59% grow this segment by 10% in the year 2006
60-Month Beta 0.96 and stabilize it to 8% in the next 3 years.
Dividend Yield 0.50% ¾ International Growth: There exists a
Price/Earnings (ttm) 31.79 tremendous growth opportunities in the
Price/Book 6.92
growing economies of Europe and
Price/Sales 1.55
ROA (ttm) 7.24%
Asia/Pacific. Marriott, with its strong brand
ROE (ttm) 24.45% and more than 50% of its rooms located
Enterprise Value / Revenue (ttm) 1.65 outside United States is well positioned for
Enterprise Value / EBITDA (ttm) 16.87 international growth.
¾ Higher asset turnover to drive
profitability: Marriott differs from its large
Valuation
cap peers by focusing on running the hotels
Discounted Cash Flow $54.67
of property owners. It currently owns only
Market Multiples $55.84
0.6% of the rooms under management,
which contributed to its high asset turnover
Investment Summary ratio of 1.35 in 2005. Starwood, a close
Marriott is an attractive player at this point of competitor witnessed asset turnover ratio of
business cycle in the lodging industry. I initiate 0.48 in the same period.
a BUY recommendation on Marriott as its ¾ Strong Balance Sheet: With a low long-
multiple growth drivers including incentive-fee term D/E ratio of 0.6 compared to the
growth potential, international unit expansion industry average of 1.2, management
opportunities and powerful return on asset expects to take advantage of its under
strategy bodes well with its intrinsic value of leveraged balance sheet to repurchase
$54.67. Based on its current market price I additional $1.25 billion of stock in 2007
expect MAR to deliver 21% return over a driving up the ROCE.
horizon period of 1 year.
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Company Description significant increase in ROCE through increased
Marriott International Inc. (MAR) is the world’s profit margin and improved asset-turnover.
largest lodging company in revenue terms and
has a network of 2,700 self operated and Increasing Revenue per Available Room
franchised properties which are spread across
more than 65 countries. The main business
segments of the company are: Full- service
lodging, Select- service lodging, Extended-stay
lodging, Timeshare and Synthetic fuel. The
timeshare segment includes the development
and operation of resorts and selling timeshare
units to clients. Some of the well-known brands
are the Ritz Carlton, Renaissance, Courtyard
and Marriott Vacation club.
Stable Occupancy Rate
Financial Snaphot
Figures in USD mn
2003 2004 2005
except per share data
Revenues 9,014 10,099 11,550
Operating Income 377 477 555
Net Income 502 596 669
Total Assets 8,177 8,668 8,530
EPS (Diluted) 2.03 2.48 2.89

2005
Industry Analysis
I believe that the industry is attractive for Following is the detailed analysis of the
making an investment. My recommendation is important industry forces:
based on low threat of new entrants, low threat
of substitutes, medium buyer power, low Threat of new entrants - Low: Hotel business
supplier power and medium rivalry in the is asset intensive and existing hotel chains have
industry. The low rate of increase in the supply strong nationwide brand presence through
of rooms, the high pricing environment and multiple brands catering to different customer
stable occupancy rate over the last 4 year had segments. Thus the barriers to new entrant,
made lodging an attractive industry. trying to establish regional or national presence,
The lodging industry is a mature industry with are quite high. Moreover, the industry is mature
low revenue growth and high degree of with projections of modest growth rate and is
consolidation. About 65% of hotel properties prone to demand shocks, like the one
are affiliated to a brand and 54% of total experienced on 9/11. In addition, there are
inventory of rooms are controlled by ten significant economies of scale for larger hotel
companies through 59 brands. After a 40% drop chains, through centralized reservation systems,
in demand for rooms post 9/11, the demand has advertising expenditure spread over larger
been growing at approximately 20% and is inventory of rooms and greater bargaining
expected to stabilize between 8-10%. The rate power with suppliers resulting in reduced
of recovery of lodging industry was also helped supplies cost.
by low rate of supply growth, which ranged
between 0.5-1.0% during last two years and an Threat of substitute - Low: While on a
average growth rate of 2.4% for ten years before business or leisure trip, there are not too many
that. Due to favorable lodging supply-demand viable alternatives to staying in a hotel. The
gap, the companies were able to achieve alternatives are vacation properties that are
available on a time-share basis and the
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
properties offered by individual owners. Hotel Strategy Analysis
companies have made substantial inroads in Marriott differs from its large cap peers,
time-sharing option with Marriott deriving 45% Starwood and Hilton Hotels, in terms of
of its revenue from time-sharing business and ownership of rooms under management. At the
Starwood deriving 15% of revenue from time- end of the year 2005, Marriott owns only 0.6%
sharing properties. Vacation properties offered of rooms under management compared to 15%
by independent owners are expected to remain a for Starwood and 4% for Hilton. This is one
very small part of business, due to the issues of reason why Marriott beats Starwood hands
connecting customers with renters, size of the down on AT and thus on ROCE. Marriott
rental property, reliability and limited currently has AT of 1.35 as compared to 0.48
availability issues. for Starwood.

Buyer Power - Medium: Though the Number of properties by operating segments


companies in lodging industry have tried to Marriott Hilton Starwood
raise the switching cost for its customers
Year-end 2005 2005 2005
through customer loyalty rewards programs, but
Owned 17 90 130
still the switching cost for the buyers is low as
Managed 965 210 378
there are a number of brands available in each
price range with little differentiation. But, the Franchised 1,707 2,054 337
buyer power is balanced by the increasing Timeshare 52 34 19
demand for the hotel rooms coupled with low Total 2,741 2,388 864
rate of supply growth.
It has a number of brands serving mid to high
Supplier Power - Low: The suppliers to the range segments of consumers. Beyond the next
lodging industry are the toiletries, food suppliers, couple of years, however, opportunities for
and contract labor suppliers for daily operations growth from the US market may be limited so
together with construction firms for building Marriott is focusing on expanding their
new hotels. There is a large number of operations in regions with lower brand
companies that could supply toiletries and most penetration like Europe and East Africa. In the
of the contract workers in lodging industry are past 2 years, has been busy signing up
minimum wage earners with quite a few of them management contracts with a number of players
illegal immigrants, who cannot demand higher in Europe and Asia.
wages. In addition, there are a number of
construction firms vying for a few new International revenues (% of total revenues)
construction orders, especially with the 24%

slowdown in real-estate market. Thus, supplier 20% 22.2% 22.6% 22.1%

power is quite low in lodging industry. 16%

12%
Rivalry - Medium: The rivalry among firms is 9.6%
8%
modest, since the industry is mature with 7.0%
modest growth rate projections in near future. 4%

2.1%
The competition in the industry is not cut-throat, 0%
2003 2004 2005
as the demand has been growing at a decent clip
during last few years, but at the same time, the Marriott Starw ood

large number of players in the hotel industry and In the timeshare segment, Marriott, Starwood
their side-by-side presence in most of the and Hilton are the major players in this segment
geographical areas increases the competition to and together accounted for 43% of US
increase their customer base. timeshare revenues in 2005. Marriott is however
most exposed to Timeshare with 45% of its
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
revenues accruing from it. This exposure is due improvements that extend the useful life of
to Marriott’s traditional focus on property property and equipment. Its estimates seem
management instead of ownership. The reasonable and no adjustments are necessary.
proportion is smaller but still significant at 15%
for Hilton & Starwood. Leases: In order to assess true risk associated
with the firms, we need to capitalize operating
Timeshare revenues of top 3 players ($ mn) leases and see if the debt to equity ratio is still
2,000 within reasonable limit. On making analytical
1,721 entry to capitalize operating leases for Marriott
1,500 1,502
1,279 the long-term debt to equity ratio goes up from
1,000 982
712
0.5 to 0.8. The long-term debt to equity ratio is
500 500 554 still within reasonable limits for the firms and
345 421
0
does not raise any red flags.
2003 2004 2005
Marriott: Capitalizing Operating Leases
Marriott Hilton Starwood Year Obligation PV
2006 124 116.94
2007 132 117.39
Accounting Analysis
2008 126 105.67
Overall, the financial statements of Marriott
2009 116 91.74
reflect the economic reality of the firm and
provide adequate disclosure. The accounting 2010 112 83.54
policies, where I believe that the company has Thereafter 873 507.70
flexibility are: revenue recognition, fixed assets Total 1022.98
depreciation, leases and rewards program and
stock based compensation. Following is the Rewards Program: Marriott defers recognition
discussion of these items: of revenue equal to the estimation of future
rewards obligation. It determines the fair value
Revenue recognition: Marriott recognizes of the future redemption obligation based on
revenue once the services have been delivered statistical formulas, which project timing of
and the collection of revenue is measurable and future point redemption based on historical
reasonably certain. For Guest services, the firm levels, including an estimate of the points that
recognizes revenue, once the rooms have been will never be redeemed, and an estimate of the
occupied and the services have been delivered. points that will eventually be redeemed. Current
Franchise fee is recorded as it is earned. accounting policy for rewards obligations seems
Marriott records management fee considering reasonable, but investors need to be aware of the
the amounts that are receivable, if the contracts assumptions that went behind estimating future
were terminated as of the day of recording the obligations.
revenue. I believe that the revenue recognition
practice of Marriott is reasonable. Stock based compensation: Marriott accounts
for stock based compensation using the intrinsic
Fixed assets depreciation: Fixed assets value method under the recognition and
comprise a large portion of lodging companies’ measurement principles of APB Opinion No. 25.
total assets. Depreciation accounting requires It does not reflect cost of this compensation in
estimation of useful life, residual values and net income, but disclose the affect of conversion
potential impairment and capitalization policy. to SFAS No. 123 in its report. In 2005, Marriott
Marriott depreciates PPE over 2-20 year period, changed the method that it uses to estimate the
whereas a close competitor Starwood obligation under stock-options plan from Black-
depreciates them over 3-40 year period. Scholes to Binomial options pricing. Marriott
Furthermore, it capitalizes the costs of increased the estimated life of stock-options by
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
1 year, while decreasing the estimated volatility other income by 1.35% contributed to
by 1% and increasing estimated dividend from improving profitability.
$0.32 to $0.36. Since these changes have
offsetting effects, I do not believe that they Historical Profitability Data of Marriott
7.00%
cause any material distortion. 5.90% 5.79%
6.00% 5.57%

5.00%
Financial Analysis 4.00% 3.29%
3.04%
3.00%
Time series analysis – Marriott International 2.00%

1.00%

Return on Common Equity (ROCE): MAR 0.00%


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
increased its ROCE from 6.79% in 2001 to
20.57% in 2005. This whopping cumulative
increase of 203% in ROCE was driven by 90% Asset Utilization: Marriot’s asset turnover
increase in profitability and 59% increase in increased from 0.85 in 2001 to 1.35 in 2005.
asset turnover. In absolute measure the High asset turnover is a competitive
profitability increase from 3.04% in 2001 to differentiator for MAR in the lodging industry.
5.79% in 2005. Asset turnover on the other hand It achieves high asset turnover by owning low
increased from 0.85 in 2001 to 1.35 in 2005, percentage of the resorts under management.
which is one of the highest in the lodging The increase in asset turnover was brought
industry. Leverage during the same period about by decrease in long-term notes receivable
decreased from 2.62 in 2001 to 2.13 in 2003 but by 11.5% of sales, decrease in PPE by 11.4% of
increased back to the original 2.62 in 2005. sales and decrease in assets held for sale by
10.1% of sales.
Historical ROCE Data of Marriott
25.00% Historical Asset Turnover Data of Marriott
20.57% 1.60
20.00% 1.35
1.40
14.60% 1.17
1.20 1.10
15.00% 13.08% 1.01
1.00 0.85
10.00% 7.75% 0.80
6.79%
0.60
5.00%
0.40
0.00% 0.20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Profitability: On analyzing common size


income statements for the last 5 year, I found Leverage, Liquidity and Solvency: The low
that the increase in profitability from 3.04% in leverage used by Marriott makes it less risky
2001 to 5.79% in 2005 was brought about by than the other players in the lodging industry.
four important changes during the same period. Common size balance sheet analysis shows that
On the cost side, unusual expenses decreased by the leverage for MAR decreased from 2.62 in
2.63% and depreciation and amortization 2001 to 2.13 in 2003 but increased back to the
expense decreased by 1.26%. The efficiency original 2.62 in 2005. The current ratio for
attained on the cost side was partially offset by MAR was 1.01 in 2005 and the interest bearing
3.78% increase in cost of revenue. I agree with debt to equity ratio was 0.6 in 2005, hence I
the management discussion that the increase in believe that both short-term liquidity risk and
cost of revenue brought about by increase in long-term solvency risk are low for Marriott.
reimbursed costs is due to the increase in
number of properties managed by Marriott. On
the revenue side, the increase in Investment &
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Historical Solvency ratios of Marriott continue to sustain high asset utilization
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
advantage.
Current Asset and Working Capital
Current asset turnover 2.83 4.75 6.69 5.19 5.75
A/R Turnover 16.22 16.12 12.38 12.67 13.80
ROCE Comparison - 2005
Fixed Asset Turnover ratio 25
20.57%
PPE Turnover 3.16 3.29 3.59 4.23 4.93
20

Liquidity Ratio 15 1.35


2.62
2.39
Current Ratio 1.39 0.81 0.76 0.83 1.01
10 8.1% 7.09%
5.79%
Long term Solvency ratio 5
0.48

Liabilities to Equity 1.62 1.32 1.13 1.12 1.62


Debt to Equity 0.79 0.50 0.38 0.32 0.53 0
Interest Coverage 2.86 4.48 3.44 5.61 5.76 ROCE ROS AT LEVERAGE

Marriott Starwood

Prospective Analysis: Valuation


Historical Leverage Data of Marriott
3.00 I derived Marriott’s market value of equity by
2.62 2.62
2.32
using both Discounted Cash Flow method (free
2.50
2.13 2.12 cash flow to equity) and multiple-based method.
2.00 For the DCF method, I forecasted Income
1.50 Statement first, and Balance Sheet as a next step.
1.00
Statement of Cash Flow was calculated based
on the forecasted Income statement and Balance
0.50
Sheet. I used five-year as forecast horizon
0.00 period (plus one year as the steady growth)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 starting from the forecast for the year 2006 and
reaching steady state in the year 2011.
Considering the industry dynamics and
projections for future growth, I believe that this
Cross Sectional Analysis - Comparison with forecast time horizon is reasonable.
close competitor Starwood Marriott is an attractive player at this point of
Recovering after the downturn in the lodging business cycle in the lodging industry. I initiate
industry brought by the 9/11 attack, both a BUY recommendation on Marriott as its
Marriott and Starwood have improved their multiple growth drivers including incentive-fee
financial condition. Both companies have shown growth potential, international unit expansion
trend in their business towards low asset and opportunities and powerful return on asset
high margin incentive fees but Marriott has strategy bodes well with its intrinsic value of
managed to do better than Starwood, as it is the $54.67. Based on its current market price I
pioneer of low asset strategy. The ROCE for expect MAR to deliver 21% return over a
MAR stood at high of 20.57% in 2005 whereas horizon period of 1 year.
it was only 8.1% for HOT. Profitability for HOT Table 6 show the result of DCF calculation, and
(7.09%) was slightly higher than MAR (5.79%) Table 9 shows the result of multiple-based
but the real differentiator was the difference in method. The stock price of MAR obtained using
asset turnover. The asset turnover for MAR was multiple based analysis is $55.84. I believe that
1.35 compared to 0.48 for HOT, which the valuation obtained using comparable
contributed to its higher ROCE. Considering the analysis is slightly skewed north as the
strong growth in incentive based and timeshare companies available for comparison like Orient-
revenue for MAR, Ibelieve Marriott would Express Hotels (Market Capitalization $1.81B)
and Four Seasons Hotels (Market Capitalization
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
$3.00B) are much smaller than $19.5 B big US lodging revenue growth vs. US GDP
Marriott International. The $54.67 target price growth
obtained using the detailed FCFE discounted 20.0%

cash flow method is the true intrinsic value for 15.0%

MAR. Furthermore, I have identified that the 10.0%

intrinsic value of MAR stock is most sensitive 5.0%

to assumptions for cost of equity and growth 0.0%

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
rate. The scenario analysis table shows the -5.0%

possible value of the stock due to simultaneous -10.0%

variation in these assumptions. -15.0%

Revenue Grow th GDP Grow th


Marriott DCF valuation range
Cost of Equity
COGS: I assumed COGS to be 86.71% of Sales.
8.75% 9.75% 10.75% It is based on the average and relatively constant
COGS over the last 5 historical years.
2% 50.03 48.77 47.56
Depreciation: I used straight-line depreciation
Growth
3% 56.15 54.67 53.25 and assumed average useful life of 21.46 years
Rate
for Gross PPE based on the average for the last
4% 64.39 62.61 60.91 four years.

Gross PPE: The gross PPE as a percentage of


Sales dropped from 34% in 2003 to 30.5% in
Key Assumptions 2004 and further to 27% in 2005. Considering
The key assumptions used in FCFE analyses are
the conscious effort by MAR to move to low
explained below (also see Table 7 and 8):
asset, I assumed gross PPE to be 27.06% of
Sales Growth: The Sales for MAR grew by
sales for the forecasted periods.
12% and 14.37% in the year 2004 and 2005
respectively. Until 2006-Q3 results about 55%
Cash requirement: I forecasted it to be 3% of
of MAR managed properties were paying
sales same as its industry standards.
incentive fees compared to 44% at this time last
year. The spending on lodging has historically
Accounts Receivable: I used receivable period
been a function of overall economic growth
of 25.10 days based on the average for the last
rates. GDP growth is the primary macro
four years.
economic factor that influences demand for
travel and lodging demand. Thus, keeping in
Accounts Payable: I used payable period of
mind the 2006 US GDP growth forecasts of
21.10 days based on the average for the last four
3.5%, I believe lodging industry and Marriott
years.
revenues too could grow at the rate of 12%.
Terminal Growth rate: I used a conservative
Growth could stabilize to 10%, 10%, 8% and
terminal growth rate of 3% based on the
8% going forward.
projected average growth rate of 4% for the
nominal GDP.

Cost of Equity: I used CAPM equation, risk free


rate of 5% and equity Beta of 0.96 (Yahoo
Finance), to come up with 9.75% cost of equity.
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]
Plug account for forecasting statements: I used
Cash account as a plug and assumed no
dividend during the growth period.

Risk Analysis: Terrorism


Terrorism wasn’t considered a threat by the
lodging industry until the events of 9/11. The
sheer scale of attacks and the economic
repercussions thereof shook the very foundation
of the travel industry. These attacks led to a
massive decline in revenues to the extent of
20% y-o-y in 2002.

Even though, the US economy has been on a


recovery path since 2003, issues related to terror
threats persist. For example, insurance
premiums have gone up significantly due to
terrorism protection clauses that are built into
contracts. Earlier, insurance premiums could be
expected to move in line with inflation but
terrorism protection clauses have increased
premiums by approximately 8% per annum.

Rise in premiums indicate that insurance


companies have now assigned a higher degree
of probability to the recurrence of such events.
Investors too may have already factored in a
suitable premium. However, such a premium
may be significantly smaller for large hotel
chains that run operations across a number of
countries. Specifically, Marriott have operations
across the globe and would be less vulnerable to
the threat of terror.
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 1: Marriott International Income Statement ($ in Millions)


Steady
28-Dec-01 03-Jan-03 02-Jan-04 31-Dec-04 30-Dec-05 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
Operating Revenue $7,768 $8,415 $9,014 $10,099 $11,550 $12,936 $14,230 $15,653 $16,905 $18,257 $18,805
Revenue Growth rate 8% 7% 12% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 3%
Cost of Goods Sold 6471.00 7347.00 7954.00 8849.00 10058.00 11216.99 12338.68 13572.55 14658.36 15831.03 16305.96
83% 87% 88% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87%
Depreciation & Amortization 222.00 187.00 160.00 166.00 184.00 183.80 200.70 217.84 234.71 251.14 258.67
Depreciation 149.00 149.00 132.00 133.00 156.00 154.44 171.34 188.47 205.35 221.78 228.43
Average useful life of PPE (Yr) 19.79 23.09 23.08 19.86 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46
Amortization 73.00 38.00 28.00 33.00 28.00 29.36 29.36 29.36 29.36 29.36 30.24
Average Amortizable life (Yr) 19.88 25.07 22.24 25.30 23.12 23.12 23.12 23.12 23.12 23.12
Gross Income 1075.00 881.00 900.00 1084.00 1308.00 1535.21 1690.21 1862.17 2011.70 2174.98 2240.23
Selling, General & Admin Expense 443.00 495.00 530.00 604.00 748.00 774.14 851.56 936.71 1011.65 1092.58 1125.36
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Operating Inc Before Unusual Items 632.00 386.00 370.00 480.00 560.00 761.07 838.66 925.46 1000.05 1082.40 1114.88
Operating Margin 8% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Unusual Expense (Income) 204.00 59.00 - - - - - - - - -
Restructuring Charge 62.00 - - - - - - - - -
Litigation 9.00 - - - - - - - - -
Other Unusual Expense (Income) 142.00 50.00 - - - - - - - - -
Operating Income After Unusual Items 428.00 327.00 370.00 480.00 560.00 761.07 838.66 925.46 1000.05 1082.40 1114.88
Interest/Investment Income (Expense) (37.00) 24.00 19.00 2.00 18.00 29.46 17.84 10.30 0.82 (9.52) (21.46)
Interest Expense (109.00) (86.00) (110.00) (99.00) (106.00) (104.84) (143.07) (176.87) (216.58) (254.43) (298.47)
3% 6% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Interest/Investment Income 88.00 122.00 115.00 107.00 134.00 134.30 160.92 187.17 217.40 244.91 277.01
Interest Income 94.00 122.00 129.00 146.00 79.00 76.10 85.23 93.76 103.13 111.38 120.29
8% 9% 10% 5% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Investment Income (6.00) 0.00 (14.00) (39.00) 55.00 58.20 75.68 93.42 114.27 133.52 156.72
0% -3% -8% 17% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Other Income (Expense), Net 30.00 120.00 99.00 172.00 139.00 150.50 165.55 182.11 196.67 212.41 218.78
0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets 78.00 132.00 106.00 136.00 135.00 - - - - - -
Other Non-Operating Income (Expense (48.00) (12.00) (7.00) 36.00 4.00 - - - - - -
Income Before Income Taxes 421.00 471.00 488.00 654.00 717.00 941.03 1022.05 1117.87 1197.55 1285.29 1312.20
Income Taxes 152.00 32.00 (43.00) 100.00 94.00 142.75 155.05 169.58 181.67 194.98 199.06
36% 7% -9% 15% 13% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Income After Income Taxes 269.00 439.00 531.00 554.00 623.00 798.27 867.01 948.29 1015.88 1090.31 1113.14
Minority Interest 0.00 0.00 (55.00) 40.00 45.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Income Before Extraordinaries 269.00 439.00 476.00 594.00 668.00 798.27 867.01 948.29 1015.88 1090.31 1113.14
Extraordinaries (Discontinued Operatio (33.00) (162.00) 26.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Income After Extraordinaries 236.00 277.00 502.00 596.00 669.00 798.27 867.01 948.29 1015.88 1090.31 1113.14
Net Margin 3% 3% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 2: Marriott International Common Size Income Statement

Report Basis Annual 28-Dec-01 03-Jan-03 02-Jan-04 31-Dec-04 30-Dec-05


Operating Revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Cost of Goods Sold 83.30% 87.31% 88.24% 87.62% 87.08%

Depreciation & Amortization 2.86% 2.22% 1.78% 1.64% 1.59%


Depreciation 1.92% 1.77% 1.46% 1.32% 1.35%
Average useful life of PPE
Amortization 0.94% 0.45% 0.31% 0.33% 0.24%

Gross Income 13.84% 10.47% 9.98% 10.73% 11.32%


Selling, General & Admin Expense 5.70% 5.88% 5.88% 5.98% 6.48%

Operating Inc Before Unusual Items 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unusual Expense (Income) 2.63% 0.70% o 0.00% 0.00%
Restructuring Charge 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Litigation 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Unusual Expense (Income) 1.83% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Operating Income After Unusual Items 5.51% 3.89% 4.10% 4.75% 4.85%

Interest/Investment Income (Expense), Net -0.48% 0.29% 0.21% 0.02% 0.16%


Interest Expense -1.40% -1.02% -1.22% -0.98% -0.92%

Interest/Investment Income 1.13% 1.45% 1.28% 1.06% 1.16%


Interest Income 1.21% 1.45% 1.43% 1.45% 0.68%

Investment Income -0.08% 0.00% -0.16% -0.39% 0.48%

Other Income (Expense), Net 0.39% 1.43% 1.10% 1.70% 1.20%

Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets 1.00% 1.57% 1.18% 1.35% 1.17%


Other Non-Operating Income (Expense) -0.62% -0.14% -0.08% 0.36% 0.03%
Income Before Income Taxes 5.42% 5.60% 5.41% 6.48% 6.21%
Income Taxes 1.96% 0.38% -0.48% 0.99% 0.81%

Income After Income Taxes 3.46% 5.22% 5.89% 5.49% 5.39%


Minority Interest 0.00% 0.00% -0.61% 0.40% 0.39%
Net Income Before Extraordinaries 3.46% 5.22% 5.28% 5.88% 5.78%
Extraordinaries (Discontinued Operations) -0.42% -1.93% 0.29% 0.02% 0.01%
Net Income After Extraordinaries 3.04% 3.29% 5.57% 5.90% 5.79%
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 3: Marriott International Balance Sheet ($ in Millions)


Steady
28-Dec-01 03-Jan-03 02-Jan-04 31-Dec-04 30-Dec-05 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
Assets
Cash & Short Term Investments $812.00 $198.00 $229.00 $770.00 $203.00 $3,003.90 $4,920.80 $7,163.71 $9,358.37 $11,963.48 $12,579.62
3% of Sales 233.04 252.45 270.42 302.97 346.50 388.08 426.89 469.58 507.14 547.71 564.15
Excess Cash 578.96 (54.45) (41.42) 467.03 (143.50) 2,615.82 4,493.91 6,694.14 8,851.23 11,415.77 12,015.47
Receivables, Net 479.00 522.00 728.00 797.00 837.00 942.04 1,014.90 1,137.73 1,187.11 1,323.72 1,363.43
Days Receivable 21.71 25.31 27.56 25.82 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10
Prepaid Expenses 223.00 300.00 - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Assets 1,233.00 753.00 390.00 379.00 970.00 265.29 327.44 400.55 468.02 549.34 565.82
Discontinued Operations / Assets held fo 1,161.00 664.00 0.00 23.00 555.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Assets 72.00 89.00 175.00 194.00 204.00 265.29 327.44 400.55 468.02 549.34 565.82
% of Total Assets 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Total Current Assets 2,747.00 1,773.00 1,347.00 1,946.00 2,010.00 4,211.23 6,263.14 8,701.99 11,013.51 13,836.54 14,251.64

Property, Plant, & Equipment, Net 2,460.00 2,560.00 2,513.00 2,389.00 2,341.00 2,561.68 2,740.45 2,937.10 3,070.66 3,214.91 3,214.91
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Gross 2,869.00 3,027.00 3,070.00 3,070.00 3,126.00 3,501.12 3,851.23 4,236.36 4,575.26 4,941.28 5,169.71
% of Revenue 37% 36% 34% 30% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Accumulated Depreciation (409.00) (467.00) (557.00) (681.00) (785.00) (939.44) (1,110.78) (1,299.25) (1,504.60) (1,726.38) (1,954.80)
Goodwill, Net 977.00 923.00 923.00 923.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00 924.00
Intangibles, Net 657.00 495.00 526.00 513.00 466.00 436.64 407.28 377.91 348.55 319.19 288.94
Intangibles, Gross 837.00 674.00 730.00 738.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00 679.00
Accumulated Intangible Amortization (180.00) (179.00) (204.00) (225.00) (213.00) (242.36) (271.72) (301.09) (330.45) (359.81) (390.06)
Long Term Investments 314.00 475.00 468.00 319.00 582.00 756.84 934.16 1,142.74 1,335.24 1,567.23 1,567.23
% of Total Assets 3% 6% 6% 4% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Long Term Notes Receivable 1,547.00 1,514.00 1,486.00 1,515.00 968.00 1,084.16 1,192.58 1,311.83 1,416.78 1,530.12 1,530.12
% of Revenue 20% 18% 16% 15% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Other Assets 405.00 556.00 914.00 1,063.00 1,239.00 1,118.03 1,229.83 1,352.81 1,461.04 1,577.92 1,577.92
% of Revenue 5% 7% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Deferred Income Tax 251.00 397.00 554.00 - - - - - -
Other 405.00 556.00 663.00 666.00 685.00 - - - - - -
Total Assets 9,107.00 8,296.00 8,177.00 8,668.00 8,530.00 11,092.58 13,691.44 16,748.39 19,569.78 22,969.91 23,659.01

Liabilities
Current Portion LT Debt/Cap Leases 32.00 221.00 64.00 489.00 56.00 266.83 333.90 412.13 504.14 589.07 606.74
Accounts Payable 607.00 505.00 584.00 570.00 591.00 703.78 720.48 846.21 845.81 981.57 1,011.02
Days Payable 27.62 24.99 23.80 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07
Accrued Expenses 322.00 373.00 412.00 508.00 559.00 595.53 668.14 743.18 808.62 864.30 890.23
% of Revenue 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Other Current Liabilities 1,009.00 1,084.00 710.00 789.00 786.00 1,189.68 1,308.64 1,439.51 1,554.67 1,679.04 1,729.42
Other Payables 621.00 662.00 385.00 416.00 355.00 706.96 777.65 855.42 923.85 997.76 1,027.69
% of Revenue 8% 8% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Discontinued Operations 367.00 390.00 0.00 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 21.00 32.00 325.00 373.00 431.00 482.72 530.99 584.09 630.82 681.28 701.72
% of Revenue 0% 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Total Current Liabilities 1,970.00 2,183.00 1,770.00 2,356.00 1,992.00 2,755.82 3,031.16 3,441.02 3,713.25 4,113.99 4,237.41

Long Term Debt 2,708.00 1,553.00 1,391.00 836.00 1,681.00 2,103.55 2,596.39 3,176.10 3,711.13 4,355.92 4,486.60
% OF Total Assets 30% 19% 17% 10% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
Minority Interest 6.00 12.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.33
Other Liabilities 951.00 987.00 1,172.00 1,383.00 1,594.00 1,667.94 1,834.73 2,018.21 2,179.66 2,354.04 2,424.66
% of Revenue 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Total Liabilities 5,629.00 4,723.00 4,339.00 4,587.00 5,278.00 6,538.31 7,473.28 8,646.32 9,615.05 10,834.94 11,159.99

Shareholders' Equity
Common Equity 3,478.00 3,573.00 3,838.00 4,081.00 3,252.00 4,554.27 6,218.16 8,102.07 9,954.74 12,134.97 12,499.02
Common Stock 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.09
Additional Paid-In Capital 3,378.00 3,224.00 3,317.00 3,423.00 3,564.00 4,388.03 5,483.62 6,747.82 7,873.75 9,275.96 9,554.23
% of Total Assets 37% 39% 41% 39% 42% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Retained Earnings 941.00 1,126.00 1,505.00 1,951.00 2,500.00 3,298.27 4,165.28 5,113.57 6,129.45 7,219.76 7,436.35
Treasury Stock - Common (503.00) (667.00) (865.00) (1,197.00) (2,667.00) (2,987.04) (3,285.74) (3,614.32) (3,903.46) (4,215.74) (4,342.21)
% of Revenue (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23)
ESOP Debt Guarantee (291.00) - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Comprehensive Income (50.00) (113.00) (122.00) (99.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (148.00) (152.44)
Total Shareholders' Equity 3,478.00 3,573.00 3,838.00 4,081.00 3,252.00 4,554.27 6,218.16 8,102.07 9,954.74 12,134.97 12,499.02

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 9,107.00 8,296.00 8,177.00 8,668.00 8,530.00 11,092.58 13,691.44 16,748.39 19,569.78 22,969.91 23,659.01
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 4: Marriott International Common Size Balance Sheet (Percentage of Revenue)

Report Basis Annual 28-Dec-01 03-Jan-03 02-Jan-04 31-Dec-04 30-Dec-05


Assets
Cash & Short Term Investments 10.45% 2.35% 2.54% 7.62% 1.76%
2% of Sales 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Excess Cash 7.45% -0.65% -0.46% 4.62% -1.24%

Receivables, Net 6.17% 6.20% 8.08% 7.89% 7.25%


Days Receivable
Prepaid Expenses 2.87% 3.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Current Assets 15.87% 8.95% 4.33% 3.75% 8.40%
Discontinued Operations / Assets held for sa 14.95% 7.89% 0.00% 0.23% 4.81%
Other Current Assets 0.93% 1.06% 1.94% 1.92% 1.77%
% of Total Assets
Total Current Assets 35.36% 21.07% 14.94% 19.27% 17.40%

Property, Plant, & Equipment, Net 31.67% 30.42% 27.88% 23.66% 20.27%
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Gross 36.93% 35.97% 34.06% 30.40% 27.06%

Accumulated Depreciation -5.27% -5.55% -6.18% -6.74% -6.80%

Goodwill, Net 12.58% 10.97% 10.24% 9.14% 8.00%


Goodwill, Gross
Accumulated Goodwill Amortization
Intangibles, Net 8.46% 5.88% 5.84% 5.08% 4.03%
Intangibles, Gross 10.77% 8.01% 8.10% 7.31% 5.88%
Accumulated Intangible Amortization -2.32% -2.13% -2.26% -2.23% -1.84%
Long Term Investments 4.04% 5.64% 5.19% 3.16% 5.04%

Long Term Notes Receivable 19.92% 17.99% 16.49% 15.00% 8.38%

Other Assets 5.21% 6.61% 10.14% 10.53% 10.73%

Deferred Income Tax 0.00% 0.00% 2.78% 3.93% 4.80%


Other 5.21% 6.61% 7.36% 6.59% 5.93%
Total Assets 117.24% 98.59% 90.71% 85.83% 73.85%

Liabilities
Current Portion LT Debt/Cap Leases 0.41% 2.63% 0.71% 4.84% 0.48%
Accounts Payable 7.81% 6.00% 6.48% 5.64% 5.12%
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses 4.15% 4.43% 4.57% 5.03% 4.84%
% of Sales
Other Current Liabilities 12.99% 12.88% 7.88% 7.81% 6.81%
Other Payables 7.99% 7.87% 4.27% 4.12% 3.07%

Discontinued Operations 4.72% 4.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%


Other Current Liabilities 0.27% 0.38% 3.61% 3.69% 3.73%

Total Current Liabilities 25.36% 25.94% 19.64% 23.33% 17.25%

Long Term Debt 34.86% 18.46% 15.43% 8.28% 14.55%


% OF Total Assets
Minority Interest 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.12% 0.10%
Other Liabilities 12.24% 11.73% 13.00% 13.69% 13.80%
% of Sales
Total Liabilities 72.46% 56.13% 48.14% 45.42% 45.70%

Shareholders' Equity
Common Equity 44.77% 42.46% 42.58% 40.41% 28.16%
Common Stock 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Additional Paid-In Capital 43.49% 38.31% 36.80% 33.89% 30.86%
% of Total Assets
Retained Earnings 12.11% 13.38% 16.70% 19.32% 21.65%
Treasury Stock - Common -6.48% -7.93% -9.60% -11.85% -23.09%
% of Sales Growth
ESOP Debt Guarantee -3.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Comprehensive Income -0.64% -1.34% -1.35% -0.98% -1.28%
Total Shareholders' Equity 44.77% 42.46% 42.58% 40.41% 28.16%

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 117.24% 98.59% 90.71% 85.83% 73.85%
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 5: Marriott International Cash Flow Statement ($ in Millions)


Steady
28-Dec-01 03-Jan-03 02-Jan-04 31-Dec-04 30-Dec-05 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
Operating Activities
Net Income $269.00 $439.00 $476.00 $594.00 $668.00 $798.27 $867.01 $948.29 $1,015.88 $1,090.31 $1,113.14
Depreciation 222.00 187.00 160.00 166.00 184.00 154.44 171.34 188.47 205.35 221.78 228.43
Amortization 29.36 29.36 29.36 29.36 29.36 30.24
Non-Cash Items (104.00) (107.00) (274.00) (65.00) 22.00
Accounting Change
Discontinued Operations (33.00) (162.00) 26.00 2.00 1.00
Other Non-Cash Items (71.00) 55.00 (300.00) (67.00) 21.00
Changes in Working Capital 16.00 (3.00) 41.00 196.00 (37.00) (386.67) (73.25) (135.70) (63.36) (97.89) (49.56)
Accounts Receivable 57.00 (31.00) (81.00) (6.00) (128.00) 105.04 72.87 122.83 49.38 136.60 39.71
Other Assets (20.00) 60.00 11.00 (16.00) (22.00) 61.29 62.15 73.11 67.48 81.32 16.48
Accounts Payable 112.78 16.70 125.73 (0.40) 135.76 29.45
Accrued Expenses 36.53 72.60 75.04 65.45 55.68 25.93
Other Liabilities 403.68 118.97 130.86 115.16 124.37 50.37
Net Cash from Operating Activities 403.00 516.00 403.00 891.00 837.00 1,368.75 1,140.95 1,301.82 1,313.95 1,439.34 1,421.36

Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures (560.00) (292.00) (210.00) (181.00) (780.00) (375.12) (350.11) (385.12) (338.91) (366.02) (228.43)
Sale of Asset 555.00
Purchase/Sale of Investments (21.00) (75.00) (231.00) (174.84) (177.32) (208.58) (192.50) (231.99) 0.00
Other Investing Activities, Net (475.00) (120.00) 48.00 141.00 583.00 4.81 (220.22) (242.24) (213.17) (230.23) 0.00
Net Cash from Investing Activities (481.00) 317.00 311.00 287.00 (130.00) 9.85 (747.65) (835.94) (744.58) (828.24) (228.43)

Financing Activities
Cash Dividends Paid (61.00) (65.00) (68.00) (73.00) (84.00) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (896.54)
Sale/Repurchase of Stock, Net (159.00) (217.00) (271.00) (458.00) (1,519.00) 503.99 796.88 935.62 836.79 1,089.93 151.90
Common Stock, Net (159.00) (217.00) (271.00) (458.00) (1,519.00) 824.03 1,095.59 1,264.20 1,125.93 1,402.20 278.37
Treasury Stock (320.04) (298.70) (328.57) (289.15) (312.28) (126.47)
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net 784.00 (1,165.00) (361.00) (141.00) 303.00 633.38 559.91 657.94 627.05 729.71 148.35
Short Term Debt, Net 210.83 67.07 78.23 92.02 84.93 17.67
Long Term Debt, Net 784.00 (1,165.00) (361.00) (141.00) 303.00 422.55 492.84 579.71 535.04 644.79 130.68
Other Financing Activities, Net 0.00 0.00 17.00 35.00 26.00 73.94 166.79 183.47 161.46 174.37 70.62
Net Cash from Financing Activities 564.00 (1,447.00) (683.00) (637.00) (1,274.00) 1,211.31 1,523.59 1,777.03 1,625.30 1,994.01 (525.68)

Net Change in Cash 486.00 (614.00) 31.00 541.00 (567.00) 2,589.90 1,916.89 2,242.92 2,194.66 2,605.11 667.26
Cash - Beginning Balance 326.00 812.00 198.00 229.00 770.00 203.00 3,003.90 4,920.80 7,163.71 9,358.37 11,963.48
Cash - Ending Balance 812.00 198.00 229.00 770.00 203.00 3,003.90 4,920.80 7,163.71 9,358.37 11,963.48 12,579.62
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 6: Marriott International Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Marriott Internantional Terminal Steady


Year State
One-step DCF Valuation t=0 30-Dec-06 30-Dec-07 30-Dec-08 30-Dec-09 30-Dec-10 30-Dec-11
CFO 1,368.75 1,140.95 1,301.82 1,313.95 1,439.34 1,421.36
+CFI 9.85 -747.65 -835.94 -744.58 -828.24 -228.43
+ Cash Flows Debt 633.38 559.91 657.94 627.05 729.71 148.35
- Cash needs for Liquidity -41.58 -38.808 -42.6888 -37.56614 -40.57144 -16.43143
Cash Flow to Equity 1,970.39 914.40 1,081.13 1,158.85 1,300.24 1,324.85
1,970.39 914.40 1,081.13 1,158.85 20927.711
Equity value from FCFE $19.00
+ Excess Cash $2.62
Total Market Value of Equity $21.61 Billions
Shares outstanding 395 Millions
Share Price $54.67

Table 7: Key Assumptions used in forecasting and valuation


Steady
State
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sales Growth 12.00% 10.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.00% 3.00%
Cost of Revenue (% of Sales) 86.71% 86.71% 86.71% 86.71% 86.71% 86.71%
EBIT (% of Sales) 5.88% 5.89% 5.91% 5.92% 5.93% 5.93%
SG&A (% of Sales) 5.98% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98%
Gross Property & Equipment (% of Sales) 27.06% 27.06% 27.06% 27.06% 27.06% 27.06%
Long Term Debt (% of Total Assets) 18.96% 18.96% 18.96% 18.96% 18.96% 18.96%
Interest Expense (% of Debt) 6.04% 6.04% 6.04% 6.04% 6.04% 6.04%
Average useful life of Property (yr) 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46 21.46
Accounts Receivable Period (Days) 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10
Accounts Payable Period (Days) 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07 21.07
Cost of Equity 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%

Table 8: Marriott International Cost of Capital

Discount Rate Calulation Source


Beta 0.96 From Yahoo Finance
Risk-Free Rate 4.95% Return on Treasury Bonds
Risk Premium 5.00% Historical equity premium has averaged 5% since 1926
cost of equity 9.75% CAPM: Re = Rf + B(Rm - Rf)
Cost of debt 6.04% Management Discussion
WACC 10.11% WACC = Re(E/V) + Rd(D/V)
Terminal growth rate 3.00% Average GDP growth rate
tax rate 15.17% Historical effective tax rate for hotel industry
Stock: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Subodh Kesri
[email protected]

Table 9: Marriott International DCF Valuation Scenario Analysis

Cost of Equity

8.75% 9.75% 10.75%

2% 50.03 48.77 47.56

Growth
3% 56.15 54.67 53.25
Rate

4% 64.39 62.61 60.91

Table 10: Marriott International Comparable Valuation

Company Market Cap. EV/EBITDA P/FCF P/E P/BV


Hilton Hotels Corp. 12.64B 14.326 N.A. 28.38 3.76
Wyndham Worldwide Corporation 6.14B 10.61 2.69 21.79 1.70
Starwood Hotels & Resorts World 13.53B 13.642 72.39 14.42 4.92
Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. 1.81B 20.394 46.90 N.A. 2.20
Four Seasons Hotels Inc. 3.00B 40.571 N.A. N.A. 4.90

Average 19.91 24.80 21.53 3.50


Median 14.33 24.80 21.79 3.76
Std. Dev. 12.08 31.26 6.98 1.50
Note: ignored the outlier 72.39 FCF multiple

Marriott International Inc.


Type of Multiple Value EV Debt Equity Value
EBITDA 577.27 11,492.16 2,103.55 $9,388.61
FCF 1,425.95 $35,361.51
Earnings 798.27 $17,186.85
Book Value 4,554.27 $15,918.08
Average Value based on multiple $19,463.76
+ Excess Cash $2,615.82
Total Equity Value (Millions) $22,079.59
Outstanding Shares (millions) 395390
Share Price $55.84

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