MAY 2020
How does climate change affect
poor people in Africa?
Authors:
Carlo Azzarri and Sara Signorelli
Associate editors:
Seda Dawson and Lisa Woodruff
Abstract
Our planet is warming up! That doesn’t mean we will have We studied one of the poorest regions in the world,
nicer weather, though. It means we have weather events sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed data from thousands
that are more extreme. Floods, droughts, and heatwaves are of families living all across the continent and looked at what
more powerful and are happening more often. People lose happens to them when extreme weather events occur. We
their homes, jobs, and eat less food. And poor people suffer found that floods had a worse impact than heatwaves and
the most! People who are very poor do not have enough droughts. Finally, we predicted that because of climate
resources to handle the effects of extreme weather events. change, the number of people living in poverty there could
To help them in the future, we need a good understanding increase in 10 years. Our results could be very useful for
of what is happening now. planning ways to help people in Africa.
Introduction
Climate change is a hot topic – quite literally! Climate change
refers to long-term changes in otherwise normal weather
conditions. Scientists agree that human activities are heating
our planet more and faster than any other time in the past.
In fact, Earth’s temperature has increased by about 0.9
degrees Celsius (1.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in the last 150
years. This may not sound like much, but it’s enough to melt
glaciers, warm waters, raise sea levels, and change ocean
currents. This causes the weather to become more extreme
and unpredictable. Some places receive more rainfall or
powerful hurricanes that lead to flooding. Other places get
less rainfall, which might mean drought and wildfires. These
extreme weather events harm agriculture and reduce the
world's food supply. They also cause people to lose their jobs
and property and affect the welfare of families.
These weather changes affect every country on every
continent on Earth. But poor countries are hit the hardest.
Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the poorest regions in the
world – millions of people are struggling with poverty and
hunger.
Мore free environmental science resources аt: www.ScienceJournalForKids.org 1
MAY 2020
HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT POOR PEOPLE IN AFRICA?
Most Africans do not have the resources to handle the don’t really know the effect of climate change on the poor
impacts of climate change. And worse yet, scientists predict in Africa. In our study, we investigated the effect climate
that SSA is an area that will see the greatest increases in change and extreme weather events are having in SSA and
extreme weather events in the future. Many governments tried to predict what might happen in the future.
and organizations are looking for ways to help them. But we
Methods
We analyzed data from more than 200,000 families in 24 2 What are the effects of climate change and extreme
countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to answer two weather events on the welfare of families in SSA?
main questions:
We determined the length of the planting and growing
1 How are welfare and poverty spread out across SSA? season for crops because those are the months during
which farming households are the most vulnerable to
We saw (from the data) the gender, age, education level,
extreme weather events.
and jobs of people in each family.
We collected data about the timing and intensity of extreme
We calculated how much each family spends per day and
weather events, plus monthly rainfall and temperatures in
how much of that amount is for food.
SSA from 1950 to 2010 (Fig. 1).
We determined how many people are living in poverty and
Then we matched this weather data with the household
hunger and where they live.
survey data, for each household each year.
Finally, we predicted which regions will be hit by more
floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
How do the rainfall and temperature change
in SSA? Make a prediction: how will rainfall
and temperatures change in the next
10 years?
Climate Trends in SSA
Rainfall Temperature
25.5
Average temperature
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
Figure 1:
Total rainfall (mm)
These graphs show the
25
(Celsius)
total rainfall and average
temperatures in SSA
24.5
from 1950 to 2010.
24
23.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
Results
On average, rainfall has been decreasing since the 1950s, The areas that get the greatest rainfall and floods are also
while temperature has been increasing. the areas with the highest poverty rates.
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MAY 2020
HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT POOR PEOPLE IN AFRICA?
Figure 2:
The predicted increase in poverty in 10 years if rainfall
and temperature stay on their current trend.
Areas with droughts and heatwaves have lower poverty
rates.
The countries with the highest poverty rates in our sample 0-5%
are Madagascar, Burundi, and Congo. On the other hand, 5-10%
Ghana and South Africa have the lowest poverty rates. 10-15%
15-20%
Extreme weather events (both floods and droughts) affect
20-30%
households with small farms the most.
No data
In 10 years, extreme weather events will affect about 20%
of SSA. Climate change will hit Western and Central Africa
the hardest. In some areas, extreme poverty is projected
to increase by up to 30% (Fig. 2).
Discussion
The data we analyzed covered about two-thirds of the Scientific evidence shows that climate change has now
population in sub-Saharan Africa. We found that families in become a global crisis – and it has hit people living in
areas affected by floods are worse off than those affected poverty the hardest. Climate change is not fair: it doesn’t
by heatwaves and droughts. We also discovered that people affect everybody equally. We should carefully plan our efforts
with small farms are at the highest risk. If climate change to help Africans in their battle against climate change. Our
continues, we predict a dramatic increase in the number of study could help governments and organizations plan ways
people living in poverty in 10 years’ time. to support the poor.
Conclusion
You can do a lot to fight climate change. Here are some public transportation or carpool whenever possible, or
ideas: use energy that comes from renewable sources, such as
sunlight, wind, or water.
Raise awareness in your community. Not everyone
understands climate change. Learn the facts and talk to Produce less waste. Find ways to reduce, reuse, or recycle.
your friends and family.
Use energy sources more efficiently. Turn off unnecessary
Avoid burning fossil fuels, which release gases that cause lights and use energy-efficient light bulbs.
the climate to change. Try to walk, ride your bike, use
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HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT POOR PEOPLE IN AFRICA?
Glossary of Key Terms
Agriculture – growing plants and raising livestock (animals such as cows, goats, sheep).
Climate – weather conditions over a long period of time (at least 30 years).
Climate change – a change in the average weather conditions over a long period of time. Scientists overwhelmingly agree
that the observed increase in temperature of 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1980 is due to the release of
greenhouse gases by human activities (mainly from burning fossil fuels). The climate is changing in other ways as well, such as
the amount of rainfall and snowfall, the frequency of hurricanes, etc.
Crop – a plant that is grown for human, animal, or industrial use (e.g. food, feed, or biofuel).
Drought – a period of low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water.
Flood – an overflowing of a large amount of water (precipitation, in our case) beyond its normal path, especially over what is normally
dry land.
Fossil fuel – a natural fuel such as coal or gas, formed in the geological past from the remains of living organisms.
Heatwave – a period of high temperatures.
Poverty – a state of being poor and not having enough money for necessary things to survive such as food, a decent place to live, or
clothing.
Sub-Saharan Africa – the area of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara desert.
Weather – the state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place. Weather is described by temperature, humidity, wind,
rainfall.
Welfare – the health, happiness, and fortunes of a person or group.
Wildfire – a large, destructive fire that spreads quickly over woodland or bush.
Check your understanding
1 What is climate change? How does it (or can it) affect your life?
2 Why do you think climate change affects people in poverty the most?
Scientists found that floods have a worse effect than droughts in Africa.
3 What could be the reason for that?
4 Scientists suggested that small farming communities need the most help. Why do they think
these are the people most vulnerable to poverty?
Climate change is a global crisis. Scientists agree that human activity makes it worse. We should
5 all work together to fight climate change. What kind of things can you do to help?
REFERENCES
Carlo Azzarri and Sara Signorelli (2020) Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara. World Development.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104691
NASA Climate Kids: What Is Climate Change?
https://climatekids.nasa.gov/climate-change-meaning/
National Geographic Kids: Climate Change
https://kids.nationalgeographic.com/explore/science/climate-change/
