Discrete probability distributions.
Binomial distribution.
1. A project manager has experience that shows 60% of his projects are
completed on schedule. If the performance record prevails, the probability
of the number of projects X completed on schedule in the next 6 jobs can
be described by the binomial distribution.
Find P(X >4), P(X ≤ 2), E(X) and V(X).
2. The probability that a residential home in a high cost area requires
roofing repairs is 0.25.
a. If 20 homes are random selected from this area, what is the probability
that between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) homes will require roofing
repairs. Find the expected number of homes requiring roofing repairs.
3. The probability that a flood in any year is 0.1. In a 10-year period, what
is the probability of (a) no floods, (b) two or fewer floods, (c) From one
to three floods?
4. An architectural and engineering firm installs new central heating
furnaces and has found that for 15% of all installations a return visit is
needed to make some modifications. Six installations were made in a
particular week. Assume independence of outcomes of these installations.
a. What is the probability that a return visit was needed in all of these
cases?
b. What is the probability that a return visit was needed in more than one
of these cases?
Geometric distribution.
5. Civil engineers have designed the sewers of a city with a probability of
0.1 of the sewers being flooded.
a. What is the probability that the sewers will be flooded for the first time
in the third year after completion of construction?
b. What is the probability that the sewers will be flooded for the first time
in at least 5 years after completion of construction?
c. Find E(X), V(X) and SD(X).
6. Suppose that 30% of the applicants for an architectural job have
advanced training in AutoCAD. Applicants are interviewed sequentially
and are selected at random from the pool. Find the probability that (a) the
first applicant having advanced training in AutoCAD is found on the fifth
interview; (b) more than two applicants will have to be interviewed before
the first suitable prospect is obtained.
7. From past experience, a computer lab supervisor has found that the
probability of being able to log on to a computer at any time is 0.7. If X
denotes the number of attempts that must be made to gain access to the
computer, find the probability that X 4. Based on this value, is this event
likely to happen?
Find E (X) and V(X).
6. In a statistics class, 40 % of the students favour assignments over in-
class tests. The lecturer selects students at random and gets their opinions.
What is the probability that the first student favouring assignments is
found on the 7Th selection?
Multinomial distribution.
7. A building consultant’s report on the causes of failure of hot water
heaters for home use revealed that 90% of the failures could be ascribed
to one of three defects: leaking seams, leaking connections, or corrosions-
the respective probabilities being 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2. Neglecting the remote
possibility of simultaneous defects and assuming independent trials, what
is the probability that a random sample of five failures would contain two
instances of leaking seams, two of leaking connections, one of corrosion,
and none due to miscellaneous causes?
Hypergeometric distribution.
8. A corporation is sampling without replacement or n = 3 firms from
which to purchase building supplies. The sample is to be selected from a
pool of six firms, of which four are local and two nonlocal. If X denotes
the number of nonlocal firms among the three selected, find P(X=1), P(X
1) and P( X ≤ 1).
9. A lecturer selects a sample of 5 architecture students from the 25 in his
class to state their preferences concerning course content. Each will
indicate whether he or a she wants more theory or more applications. It is
assumed that 40% of the class wants more theory.
a. Find E(X) and V(X), where X is the number of students who want more
theory.
b. Find P(X > 3)
10. A first year mathematics class contains 400 students. Hundred are
from architecture and building science programs and 300 are from other
programmes. If a sample of 5 students are randomly selected from this
class,
a. Find the probability of exactly one student from architecture and
building science programs.
b. Find the probability that at least three architecture and building science
students will be selected.
c. How many architecture and building science students do you expect to
find in the sample? Find the variance.
11. Among the 120 applicants for a job, only 80 are actually qualified. If
five of the applicants are randomly selected for an in-depth interview, find
the probability that only two of the five will be qualified for the job by
using:
a. the formula for the hypergeometric distribution;
b. the formula for the binomial distribution .
Poisson distribution.
12. M and M Home Centre specialises in building materials for home
improvements. They recently constructed an information booth in the
centre of the store. Let X denote the number of customers who arrive at
the booth over a five- minute period with a mean of 4 customers over a
five-minute period,
a. What is the probability that, over any five-minute interval, exactly four
people arrive at the information booth?
b. What is the probability that more than one person will arrive?
c. What is the probability that you observe exactly six people over a ten-
minute period?
13. An average of five books per hour are returned to a library. Assume
that the number of returned books is poisson distributed.
a. What is the probability that less than four books will be returned in one
hour?
b. What is the standard deviation of the number of books returned?
14. A textbook copy editor is reviewing a manuscript for grammatical
errors. Let the random variable X represent the number of grammatical
errors made in a particular chapter. Assume that the conditions of a
Poisson distribution are satisfied with an average of ten grammatical
errors per chapter.
a. What is the probability that X is less than three?
b. What is the probability that X is greater than one?
c. What is the mean value of X?
15. The number of people entering a bank during any two -minute interval
follows the poisson distribution with mean = 2. Find the probability of
the following during a two-minute interval
a. no one enters the bank.
b. At least two people enter the bank.
16. The probability that a student failing to graduate after 5 years (for 5
year-degree programs) is 0.004. For a sample of 250 students, determine
the probability that less than 3 students will fail to graduate after 5
years. What is the expected number of students failing to graduate after 5
years?
17. The probability of a person having n accident in a certain period of
time is 0.0003. For a population of 7500 people:
a. Find the probability of at least 3 people having an accident.
b. Determine the most probable number of people having an accident.
Continuous probability distributions.
The normal distribution.
18. Let Z be the standard normal distribution random variable. Find
a. P( 0 Z 1.5 ), P( Z 1.82 ), P(Z 1.64 ) , P( Z -1.54 ), P(Z
6.00 ), P( Z 5.50 ).
b. Find z such that : P ( Z > z ) = 0.2297, P ( Z > z ) = 0.0007364, P ( Z
< z ) = 0.9495, P ( Z < z ) = 09776
19. The demand for electricity, in megawatts-hours in a given city on a
given day is a random variable X which has the normal distribution with
mean 500 and standard deviation 10.
a. Find constants and b for which P(a < X < b) = 0.95
b. What is the probability that X > 530 megawatt-hours.
20. If the annual precipitation X in a city is a normal variate with a mean
of 50 in. and a coefficient of variation of 0.2, determine the following:
a. The standard deviation of X
b. The probabilities P(X < 30); P(X >60); P( 40 < X ≤ 55)
21. A quantity surveyor estimates that the expected time for the
completion of Job A is 30 days. Because of uncertainties that exist in the
labour market supply, bad weather conditions, and so on, he is not sure
that he will finish the job in exactly 30 days. However, he is 90%
confident that the job will be completed within 40 days. If the number of
days required to complete job A can be modelled by a normal random
variable X, determine E(X), V(X) and the probability that X will be less
than 50, based on the given information.
22. A building contractor regards the cost of fulfilling a particular contract
as a normally distributed random variable with mean $ 500,000 and
standard deviation $ 50,000.
a. What is the probability that the cost of fulfilling the contract will be
between $ 460,000 and $ 540,000?
b. The probability is 0.2 that the contract will cost less than how much to
fulfil?
c. Find the shortest range such that the probability is 0.95 that the cost of
fulfilling the contract will fall in this range.
21. Of the students entering the school of built environment, 90 %
eventually graduate. If we take a sample of 100 new students, what is the
probability that more than 80 eventually graduate?
22. A census report that 60 % of the country’s households have incomes
below the poverty line. Suppose that 1000 households are randomly
selected. Find the probability that fewer than 200 of these households are
below the poverty line.
23. Suppose that 20 % of the applicants to the architecture program are
women. An admission committee reviews applications in groups of 100.
Find the probability that the number of women in the next group is:
a. less than or equal to 15; b. greater than to 25; c. exactly 27; d. between
18 and 26, inclusively; e. less than 10; f. greater than 40.
