Simulation

Base Case Simulation:

The result of the simulation shows that in 95% confidence level the value per share would be maximum $46.73 and
minimum $-9.99.
 Forecast: Value Per Share (Base)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 16.19
Mean 16.22
Median 15.41
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 14.03
Variance 196.98
Skewness 0.406
Kurtosis 4.75
Coeff. of Variation 0.4653
Minimum -38.29
Maximum 97.14
Mean Std. Error 0.44
From the statistic it can also be seen that the coefficient of variation is .1725 which is less than .5 which signifies that
this result is acceptable and significant.

IPO:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(IPO)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 15.67
Mean 16.5
Median 15.42
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.32
Variance 128.07
Skewness 1.24
Kurtosis 13.25
Coeff. of Variation 0.486
Minimum -20.7
Maximum 130.73
Mean Std. Error 0.36

Debt:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(debt)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 8.25
Mean 8.37
Median 7.87
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 8.72
Variance 75.96
Skewness 0.3284
Kurtosis 3.38
Coeff. of Variation 0.42
Minimum -17.72
Maximum 45.26
Mean Std. Error 0.28

Equity:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(Equity)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 15.35
Mean 15.76
Median 15.15
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.28
Variance 127.21
Skewness 0.1786
Kurtosis 7.03
Coeff. of Variation 0.4158
Minimum -67.67
Maximum 67.79
Mean Std. Error 0.36

Post IPO:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(Post IPO)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 14.52
Mean 15.66
Median 14.7
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.7
Variance 136.84
Skewness 2.94
Kurtosis 34.04
Coeff. of Variation 0.4468
Minimum -23.2
Maximum 168.61
Mean Std. Error 0.37
Graph for Ratio

Liquidity ratio
1.2000

1.0000
0.9580
0.8000

0.6000

0.4937
0.4000

0.2000

0.0000
2003 2004

Profi tability
4.5
4 4.09
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5 1.67
1
0.5
0
2003 2004
 Solvency

Equity Multiplier

Debt to Equity Ratio

Debt Ratio

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2003 2004

ROE
4.5
4.09
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.67
1.5
1
0.5
0
2003 2004
 DOL
30

20

10

0
2001 2002 2003 2004

-10

-20

-30

DFL
2
1.17 1.42 1.36
1 1.09
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-6.71
-7
-8