Estimates of United states Total Monthly Retail and Food Services Sales

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Ann
Data From http://www.census.gov/retail/

Serial No Year Month Sales (Mn $)

1 2004 January 281,463
2 2004 February 282,445
3 2004 March 319,107
4 2004 April 315,278
5 2004 May 328,499
6 2004 June 321,151
7 2004 July 328,025
8 2004 August 326,280
9 2004 September 313,444
10 2004 October 319,639
11 2004 November 324,067
12 2004 December 386,918
13 2005 January 293,009
14 2005 February 294,822
15 2005 March 338,844
16 2005 April 335,407
17 2005 May 345,080
18 2005 June 350,608
19 2005 July 351,285
20 2005 August 355,147
21 2005 September 332,791
22 2005 October 335,615
23 2005 November 343,202
24 2005 December 404,868
25 2006 January 317,902
26 2006 February 313,552
27 2006 March 361,505
28 2006 April 351,436
29 2006 May 373,350
30 2006 June 366,310
31 2006 July 361,669
32 2006 August 375,078
33 2006 September 345,547
34 2006 October 348,117
35 2006 November 356,089
36 2006 December 416,856
37 2007 January 328,087
38 2007 February 322,747
39 2007 March 373,626
40 2007 April 358,275
41 2007 May 391,287
42 2007 June 376,371
43 2007 July 371,848
44 2007 August 387,261
45 2007 September 353,159
46 2007 October 367,855
47 2007 November 376,822
48 2007 December 425,283
49 2008 January 342,191
50 2008 February 344,062
51 2008 March 373,587
52 2008 April 370,144
53 2008 May 399,979
54 2008 June 380,431
55 2008 July 385,909
56 2008 August 384,798
57 2008 September 352,554
58 2008 October 352,479
59 2008 November 338,788
60 2008 December 387,964
61 2009 January 313,593
62 2009 February 304,056
63 2009 March 334,149
64 2009 April 336,155
65 2009 May 354,668
66 2009 June 351,418
67 2009 July 354,316
68 2009 August 359,483
69 2009 September 330,411
70 2009 October 344,726
71 2009 November 347,095
72 2009 December 408,991
ervices Sales
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Annual Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records]
 450,000
Weighted Moving Average

400,000

350,000

300,000
Value

250,000

Actual
200,000 value
Forecast

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Period
Problem Title
Forecasting 12 period weighted moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute
Period Actual value Weights Forecast Error error
Period 1 281,463 0.529052718
Period 2 282,445 0
Period 3 319,107 0
Period 4 315,278 0
Period 5 328,499 0
Period 6 321,151 0
Period 7 328,025 0
Period 8 326,280 0.02824112
Period 9 313,444 0.158159813
Period 10 319,639 0.218582331
Period 11 324,067 0
Period 12 386,918 0.065964019
Period 13 293,009 303087.626 -10078.626 10078.626
Period 14 294,822 1 298997.721 -4175.721 4175.721
Period 15 338,844 333126.848 5717.152 5717.152
Period 16 335,407 323543.679 11863.321 11863.321
Period 17 345,080 317630.209 27449.791 27449.791
Period 18 350,608 321637.879 28970.121 28970.121
Period 19 351,285 331901.682 19383.318 19383.318
Period 20 355,147 333837.125 21309.875 21309.875
Period 21 332,791 329942.095 2848.905 2848.905
Period 22 335,615 333040.349 2574.651 2574.651
Period 23 343,202 336676.633 6525.367 6525.367
Period 24 404,868 366171.900 38696.100 38696.100
Period 25 317,902 317747.349 154.651 154.651
Period 26 313,552 314443.564 -891.564 891.564
Period 27 361,505 352205.388 9299.612 9299.612
Period 28 351,436 344508.324 6927.676 6927.676
Period 29 373,350 335997.817 37352.183 37352.183
Period 30 366,310 347705.622 18604.378 18604.378
Period 31 361,669 352859.887 8809.113 8809.113
Period 32 375,078 359148.698 15929.302 15929.302
Period 33 345,547 349848.442 -4301.442 4301.442
Period 34 348,117 347885.493 231.507 231.507
Period 35 356,089 354067.077 2021.923 2021.923
Period 36 416,856 382752.250 34103.750 34103.750
Period 37 328,087 337020.911 -8933.911 8933.911
Period 38 322,747 330178.993 -7431.993 7431.993
Period 39 373,626 369812.432 3813.568 3813.568
Period 40 358,275 358274.284 0.716 0.716
Period 41 391,287 355364.542 35922.458 35922.458
Period 42 376,371 361587.356 14783.644 14783.644
Period 43 371,848 362688.851 9159.149 9159.149
Period 44 387,261 375709.372 11551.628 11551.628
Period 45 353,159 362629.888 -9470.888 9470.888
Period 46 367,855 359324.585 8530.415 8530.415
Period 47 376,822 366744.009 10077.991 10077.991
Period 48 425,283 394340.342 30942.658 30942.658
Period 49 342,191 348827.544 -6636.544 6636.544
Period 50 344,062 343842.586 219.414 219.414
Period 51 373,587 383309.647 -9722.647 9722.647
Period 52 370,144 366891.124 3252.876 3252.876
Period 53 399,979 372764.844 27214.156 27214.156
Period 54 380,431 371244.479 9186.521 9186.521
Period 55 385,909 371532.038 14376.962 14376.962
Period 56 384,798 386858.357 -2060.357 2060.357
Period 57 352,554 369091.931 -16537.931 16537.931
Period 58 352,479 373688.206 -21209.206 21209.206
Period 59 338,788 378498.772 -39710.772 39710.772
Period 60 387,964 396165.103 -8201.103 8201.103
Period 61 313,593 350301.426 -36708.426 36708.426
Period 62 304,056 342470.394 -38414.394 38414.394
Period 63 334,149 366043.098 -31894.098 31894.098
Period 64 336,155 357341.456 -21186.456 21186.456
Period 65 354,668 360799.729 -6131.729 6131.729
Period 66 351,418 354648.106 -3230.106 3230.106
Period 67 354,316 362260.518 -7944.518 7944.518
Period 68 359,483 367077.647 -7594.647 7594.647
Period 69 330,411 352633.979 -22222.979 22222.979
Period 70 344,726 351318.855 -6592.855 6592.855
Period 71 347,095 346515.847 579.153 579.153
Period 72 408,991 367233.241 41757.759 41757.759
Average 14190.411
Next period 330646.876 MAD
 Absolute
Squared error % error

101578710.175 3.44%
17436643.338 1.42%
32685830.389 1.69%
140738388.348 3.54%
753491026.735 7.95%
839267888.806 8.26%
375713022.731 5.52%
454110786.285 6.00%
8116257.978 0.86%
6628826.134 0.77%
42580411.736 1.90%
1497388120.258 9.56%
23916.973 0.05%
794885.557 0.28%
86482778.116 2.57%
47992693.207 1.97%
1395185592.458 10.00%
346122887.378 5.08%
77600472.084 2.44%
253742661.201 4.25%
18502400.714 1.24%
53595.332 0.07%
4088172.027 0.57%
1163065743.533 8.18%
79814774.359 2.72%
55234515.551 2.30%
14543300.410 1.02%
 0.512 0.00%
1290423002.359 9.18%
218556131.754 3.93%
83890007.382 2.46%
133440101.188 2.98%
89697724.126 2.68%
72767981.178 2.32%
101565912.256 2.67%
957448061.621 7.28%
44043720.497 1.94%
48142.396 0.06%
94529865.937 2.60%
10581200.789 0.88%
740610304.654 6.80%
84392167.096 2.41%
206697047.160 3.73%
4245069.893 0.54%
273503173.940 4.69%
449830422.036 6.02%
1576945378.587 11.72%
67258083.380 2.11%
1347508549.494 11.71%
1475665694.160 12.63%
1017233464.449 9.54%
448865901.814 6.30%
37598105.675 1.73%
10433587.389 0.92%
63115366.172 2.24%
57678669.924 2.11%
493860814.803 6.73%
43465731.338 1.91%
335418.034 0.17%
1743710406.820 10.21%
350882158.510 3.95%
MSE MAPE
 450,000
Moving Average

400,000

350,000

300,000
Value

250,000

Actual
200,000 Value
Forecast

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Time
Problem Title
Forecasting 12 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute
Period Actual Value Forecast Error error Squared error
Period 1 281,463
Period 2 282,445
Period 3 319,107
Period 4 315,278
Period 5 328,499
Period 6 321,151
Period 7 328,025
Period 8 326,280
Period 9 313,444
Period 10 319,639
Period 11 324,067
Period 12 386,918
Period 13 293,009 320526.333 -27517.333 27517.333 757203633.778
Period 14 294,822 321488.500 -26666.500 26666.500 711102222.250
Period 15 338,844 322519.917 16324.083 16324.083 266475696.674
Period 16 335,407 324164.667 11242.333 11242.333 126390058.778
Period 17 345,080 325842.083 19237.917 19237.917 370097437.674
Period 18 350,608 327223.833 23384.167 23384.167 546819250.694
Period 19 351,285 329678.583 21606.417 21606.417 466837241.174
Period 20 355,147 331616.917 23530.083 23530.083 553664821.674
Period 21 332,791 334022.500 -1231.500 1231.500 1516592.250
Period 22 335,615 335634.750 -19.750 19.750 390.063
Period 23 343,202 336966.083 6235.917 6235.917 38886656.674
Period 24 404,868 338560.667 66307.333 66307.333 4396662453.778
Period 25 317,902 340056.500 -22154.500 22154.500 490821870.250
Period 26 313,552 342130.917 -28578.917 28578.917 816754477.840
Period 27 361,505 343691.750 17813.250 17813.250 317311875.563
Period 28 351,436 345580.167 5855.833 5855.833 34290784.028
Period 29 373,350 346915.917 26434.083 26434.083 698760761.674
Period 30 366,310 349271.750 17038.250 17038.250 290301963.063
Period 31 361,669 350580.250 11088.750 11088.750 122960376.563
Period 32 375,078 351445.583 23632.417 23632.417 558491117.507
Period 33 345,547 353106.500 -7559.500 7559.500 57146040.250
Period 34 348,117 354169.500 -6052.500 6052.500 36632756.250
Period 35 356,089 355211.333 877.667 877.667 770298.778
Period 36 416,856 356285.250 60570.750 60570.750 3668815755.563
Period 37 328,087 357284.250 -29197.250 29197.250 852479407.563
Period 38 322,747 358133.000 -35386.000 35386.000 1252168996.000
Period 39 373,626 358899.250 14726.750 14726.750 216877165.563
Period 40 358,275 359909.333 -1634.333 1634.333 2671045.444
Period 41 391,287 360479.250 30807.750 30807.750 949117460.063
Period 42 376,371 361974.000 14397.000 14397.000 207273609.000
Period 43 371,848 362812.417 9035.583 9035.583 81641766.174
Period 44 387,261 363660.667 23600.333 23600.333 556975733.444
Period 45 353,159 364675.917 -11516.917 11516.917 132639369.507
Period 46 367,855 365310.250 2544.750 2544.750 6475752.563
Period 47 376,822 366955.083 9866.917 9866.917 97356044.507
Period 48 425,283 368682.833 56600.167 56600.167 3203578866.694
Period 49 342,191 369385.083 -27194.083 27194.083 739518168.340
Period 50 344,062 370560.417 -26498.417 26498.417 702166085.840
Period 51 373,587 372336.667 1250.333 1250.333 1563333.444
Period 52 370,144 372333.417 -2189.417 2189.417 4793545.340
Period 53 399,979 373322.500 26656.500 26656.500 710568992.250
Period 54 380,431 374046.833 6384.167 6384.167 40757584.028
Period 55 385,909 374385.167 11523.833 11523.833 132798734.694
Period 56 384,798 375556.917 9241.083 9241.083 85397621.174
Period 57 352,554 375351.667 -22797.667 22797.667 519733605.444
Period 58 352,479 375301.250 -22822.250 22822.250 520855095.063
Period 59 338,788 374019.917 -35231.917 35231.917 1241287952.007
Period 60 387,964 370850.417 17113.583 17113.583 292874734.507
Period 61 313,593 367740.500 -54147.500 54147.500 2931951756.250
Period 62 304,056 365357.333 -61301.333 61301.333 3757853468.444
Period 63 334,149 362023.500 -27874.500 27874.500 776987750.250
Period 64 336,155 358737.000 -22582.000 22582.000 509946724.000
Period 65 354,668 355904.583 -1236.583 1236.583 1529138.340
Period 66 351,418 352128.667 -710.667 710.667 505047.111
Period 67 354,316 349710.917 4605.083 4605.083 21206792.507
Period 68 359,483 347078.167 12404.833 12404.833 153879890.028
Period 69 330,411 344968.583 -14557.583 14557.583 211923232.507
Period 70 344,726 343123.333 1602.667 1602.667 2568540.444
Period 71 347,095 342477.250 4617.750 4617.750 21323615.063
Period 72 408,991 343169.500 65821.500 65821.500 4332469862.250
Average 19843.979 676707183.644
Next period 344921.750 MAD MSE
Absolute
% error

9.39%
9.04%
4.82%
3.35%
5.57%
6.67%
6.15%
6.63%
0.37%
0.01%
1.82%
16.38%
6.97%
9.11%
4.93%
1.67%
7.08%
4.65%
3.07%
6.30%
2.19%
1.74%
0.25%
14.53%
8.90%
10.96%
3.94%
0.46%
7.87%
3.83%
2.43%
6.09%
3.26%
0.69%
2.62%
13.31%
7.95%
7.70%
0.33%
0.59%
6.66%
1.68%
2.99%
2.40%
6.47%
6.47%
10.40%
4.41%
17.27%
20.16%
8.34%
6.72%
0.35%
0.20%
1.30%
3.45%
4.41%
0.46%
1.33%
16.09%
5.59%
MAPE
 500,000
Weighted Moving Average

450,000

400,000

350,000

300,000
Value

250,000
Actual
value
Forecast
200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Period
Problem Title
Forecasting 12 period weighted moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute
Period Actual value Weights Forecast Error error
Period 1 281,463 4.535998903
Period 2 282,445 -0.81576699
Period 3 319,107 -1.14271634
Period 4 315,278 -1.1876466
Period 5 328,499 -0.56665036
Period 6 321,151 -0.06843664
Period 7 328,025 0.747194154
Period 8 326,280 0.10432009
Period 9 313,444 1.363678931
Period 10 319,639 0.612289263
Period 11 324,067 0.985432523
Period 12 386,918 0.705128037
Period 13 293,009 302220.096 -9211.096 9211.096
Period 14 294,822 296748.163 -1926.163 1926.163
Period 15 338,844 316392.217 22451.783 22451.783
Period 16 335,407 323992.338 11414.662 11414.662
Period 17 345,080 322266.964 22813.036 22813.036
Period 18 350,608 330708.882 19899.118 19899.118
Period 19 351,285 337248.511 14036.489 14036.489
Period 20 355,147 332343.684 22803.316 22803.316
Period 21 332,791 325252.113 7538.887 7538.887
Period 22 335,615 335605.937 9.063 9.063
Period 23 343,202 343251.748 -49.748 49.748
Period 24 404,868 402526.078 2341.922 2341.922
Period 25 317,902 315964.886 1937.114 1937.114
Period 26 313,552 310288.266 3263.734 3263.734
Period 27 361,505 334402.164 27102.836 27102.836
Period 28 351,436 340473.227 10962.773 10962.773
Period 29 373,350 336202.449 37147.551 37147.551
Period 30 366,310 357159.766 9150.234 9150.234
Period 31 361,669 361714.703 -45.703 45.703
Period 32 375,078 359013.164 16064.836 16064.836
Period 33 345,547 345584.671 -37.671 37.671
Period 34 348,117 348113.281 3.719 3.719
Period 35 356,089 358051.426 -1962.426 1962.426
Period 36 416,856 415989.985 866.015 866.015
Period 37 328,087 333346.454 -5259.454 5259.454
Period 38 322,747 322640.472 106.528 106.528
Period 39 373,626 350291.705 23334.295 23334.295
Period 40 358,275 351488.405 6786.595 6786.595
Period 41 391,287 358764.989 32522.011 32522.011
Period 42 376,371 369720.344 6650.656 6650.656
Period 43 371,848 370694.987 1153.013 1153.013
Period 44 387,261 375788.854 11472.146 11472.146
Period 45 353,159 359108.771 -5949.771 5949.771
Period 46 367,855 359239.767 8615.233 8615.233
Period 47 376,822 372463.424 4358.576 4358.576
Period 48 425,283 431159.668 -5876.668 5876.668
Period 49 342,191 345405.993 -3214.993 3214.993
Period 50 344,062 334790.024 9271.976 9271.976
Period 51 373,587 365551.509 8035.491 8035.491
Period 52 370,144 359718.215 10425.785 10425.785
Period 53 399,979 377422.069 22556.931 22556.931
Period 54 380,431 380417.346 13.654 13.654
Period 55 385,909 375089.695 10819.305 10819.305
Period 56 384,798 384793.365 4.635 4.635
Period 57 352,554 359666.892 -7112.892 7112.892
Period 58 352,479 369714.216 -17235.216 17235.216
Period 59 338,788 383481.275 -44693.275 44693.275
Period 60 387,964 422414.566 -34450.566 34450.566
Period 61 313,593 338492.815 -24899.815 24899.815
Period 62 304,056 328430.628 -24374.628 24374.628
Period 63 334,149 334149.801 -0.801 0.801
Period 64 336,155 336154.994 0.006 0.006
Period 65 354,668 351957.865 2710.135 2710.135
Period 66 351,418 351358.884 59.116 59.116
Period 67 354,316 364394.500 -10078.500 10078.500
Period 68 359,483 368900.423 -9417.423 9417.423
Period 69 330,411 351127.843 -20716.843 20716.843
Period 70 344,726 357134.158 -12408.158 12408.158
Period 71 347,095 353143.574 -6048.574 6048.574
Period 72 408,991 402335.946 6655.054 6655.054
Average 10672.144
Next period 334288.659 MAD
 Absolute
Squared error % error

84844296.896 3.14%
3710103.278 0.65%
504082541.566 6.63%
130294515.192 3.40%
520434612.157 6.61%
395974886.727 5.68%
197023032.822 4.00%
519991207.383 6.42%
56834816.168 2.27%
82.145 0.00%
2474.892 0.01%
5484597.928 0.58%
3752410.564 0.61%
10651959.608 1.04%
734563732.833 7.50%
120182392.438 3.12%
1379940567.805 9.95%
83726773.424 2.50%
2088.791 0.01%
258078963.163 4.28%
1419.103 0.01%
13.829 0.00%
3851114.353 0.55%
749981.733 0.21%
27661855.671 1.60%
11348.320 0.03%
544489311.628 6.25%
 46057871.767 1.89%
1057681195.701 8.31%
44231218.776 1.77%
1329439.797 0.31%
131610131.122 2.96%
35399771.154 1.68%
74222246.322 2.34%
18997187.783 1.16%
34535231.393 1.38%
10336181.424 0.94%
85969541.997 2.69%
64569121.465 2.15%
108696983.363 2.82%
508815149.446 5.64%
186.433 0.00%
117057365.045 2.80%
21.481 0.00%
50593237.826 2.02%
297052671.173 4.89%
1997488799.075 13.19%
1186841511.329 8.88%
620000805.976 7.94%
594122510.973 8.02%
0.642 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
7344832.710 0.76%
3494.683 0.02%
101576158.007 2.84%
88687850.743 2.62%
429187565.871 6.27%
153962375.722 3.60%
36585244.987 1.74%
44289749.113 1.63%
225559779.229 3.01%
MSE MAPE
 450,000
Moving Average

400,000

350,000

300,000
Value

250,000

Actual
200,000 value
Forecast

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Time
Problem Title
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute
Period Actual value Forecast Error error Squared error
Period 1 281,463 281463.000
Period 2 282,445 281463.000 982.000 982.000 964324.000
Period 3 319,107 281791.530 37315.470 37315.470 1392444301.860
Period 4 315,278 294275.492 21002.508 21002.508 441105325.141
Period 5 328,499 301301.922 27197.078 27197.078 739681062.354
Period 6 321,151 310400.757 10750.243 10750.243 115567730.221
Period 7 328,025 313997.271 14027.729 14027.729 196777171.325
Period 8 326,280 318690.275 7589.725 7589.725 57603925.544
Period 9 313,444 321229.432 -7785.432 7785.432 60612953.437
Period 10 319,639 318624.801 1014.199 1014.199 1028600.009
Period 11 324,067 318964.103 5102.897 5102.897 26039556.773
Period 12 386,918 320671.287 66246.713 66246.713 4388626970.910
Period 13 293,009 342834.253 -49825.253 49825.253 2482555795.174
Period 14 294,822 326165.118 -31343.118 31343.118 982391064.515
Period 15 338,844 315679.218 23164.782 23164.782 536607140.997
Period 16 335,407 323429.040 11977.960 11977.960 143471520.027
Period 17 345,080 327436.290 17643.710 17643.710 311300510.875
Period 18 350,608 333339.027 17268.973 17268.973 298217427.385
Period 19 351,285 339116.395 12168.605 12168.605 148074942.204
Period 20 355,147 343187.425 11959.575 11959.575 143031424.464
Period 21 332,791 347188.524 -14397.524 14397.524 207288701.314
Period 22 335,615 342371.805 -6756.805 6756.805 45654409.578
Period 23 343,202 340111.303 3090.697 3090.697 9552410.076
Period 24 404,868 341145.301 63722.699 63722.699 4060582315.684
Period 25 317,902 362463.853 -44561.853 44561.853 1985758746.945
Period 26 313,552 347555.599 -34003.599 34003.599 1156244759.784
Period 27 361,505 336179.630 25325.370 25325.370 641374387.991
Period 28 351,436 344652.281 6783.719 6783.719 46018842.741
Period 29 373,350 346921.787 26428.213 26428.213 698450426.375
Period 30 366,310 355763.397 10546.603 10546.603 111230839.053
Period 31 361,669 359291.783 2377.217 2377.217 5651159.576
Period 32 375,078 360087.086 14990.914 14990.914 224727512.097
Period 33 345,547 365102.325 -19555.325 19555.325 382410734.350
Period 34 348,117 358560.053 -10443.053 10443.053 109057362.295
Period 35 356,089 355066.310 1022.690 1022.690 1045895.466
Period 36 416,856 355408.453 61447.547 61447.547 3775801068.482
Period 37 328,087 375965.848 -47878.848 47878.848 2292384094.570
Period 38 322,747 359947.887 -37200.887 37200.887 1383906006.779
Period 39 373,626 347502.259 26123.741 26123.741 682449861.158
Period 40 358,275 356242.007 2032.993 2032.993 4133061.824
Period 41 391,287 356922.149 34364.851 34364.851 1180943017.502
Period 42 376,371 368418.976 7952.024 7952.024 63234688.600
Period 43 371,848 371079.341 768.659 768.659 590836.912
Period 44 387,261 371336.497 15924.503 15924.503 253589788.146
Period 45 353,159 376664.070 -23505.070 23505.070 552488331.339
Period 46 367,855 368800.404 -945.404 945.404 893788.246
Period 47 376,822 368484.117 8337.883 8337.883 69520291.229
Period 48 425,283 371273.572 54009.428 54009.428 2917018324.097
Period 49 342,191 389342.530 -47151.530 47151.530 2223266797.377
Period 50 344,062 373567.895 -29505.895 29505.895 870597831.983
Period 51 373,587 363696.641 9890.359 9890.359 97819203.753
Period 52 370,144 367005.480 3138.520 3138.520 9850310.432
Period 53 399,979 368055.478 31923.522 31923.522 1019111280.162
Period 54 380,431 378735.554 1695.446 1695.446 2874538.583
Period 55 385,909 379302.768 6606.232 6606.232 43642295.373
Period 56 384,798 381512.896 3285.104 3285.104 10791908.657
Period 57 352,554 382611.934 -30057.934 30057.934 903479386.615
Period 58 352,479 372555.994 -20076.994 20076.994 403085693.565
Period 59 338,788 365839.197 -27051.197 27051.197 731767261.860
Period 60 387,964 356789.167 31174.833 31174.833 971870216.522
Period 61 313,593 367218.767 -53625.767 53625.767 2875722932.103
Period 62 304,056 349278.164 -45222.164 45222.164 2045044078.122
Period 63 334,149 334149.002 -0.002 0.002 0.000
Period 64 336,155 334149.001 2005.999 2005.999 4024031.770
Period 65 354,668 334820.112 19847.888 19847.888 393938663.296
Period 66 351,418 341460.261 9957.739 9957.739 99156564.022
Period 67 354,316 344791.642 9524.358 9524.358 90713398.331
Period 68 359,483 347978.034 11504.966 11504.966 132364237.567
Period 69 330,411 351827.043 -21416.043 21416.043 458646884.849
Period 70 344,726 344662.264 63.736 63.736 4062.235
Period 71 347,095 344683.587 2411.413 2411.413 5814911.575
Period 72 408,991 345490.330 63500.670 63500.670 4032335088.371
Average 20556.372 743014436.430
Alpha 0.334551927 MAD MSE

Next period 366734.602

Absolute
% error

0.35%
11.69%
6.66%
8.28%
3.35%
4.28%
2.33%
2.48%
0.32%
1.57%
17.12%
17.00%
10.63%
6.84%
3.57%
5.11%
4.93%
3.46%
3.37%
4.33%
2.01%
0.90%
15.74%
14.02%
10.84%
7.01%
1.93%
7.08%
2.88%
0.66%
4.00%
5.66%
3.00%
0.29%
14.74%
14.59%
11.53%
6.99%
0.57%
8.78%
2.11%
0.21%
4.11%
6.66%
0.26%
2.21%
12.70%
13.78%
8.58%
2.65%
0.85%
7.98%
0.45%
1.71%
0.85%
8.53%
5.70%
7.98%
8.04%
17.10%
14.87%
0.00%
0.60%
5.60%
2.83%
2.69%
3.20%
6.48%
0.02%
0.69%
15.53%
5.86%
MAPE
 Value

50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000

0
Period 1
Period 3
Period 5
Period 7
Period 9
Period 11
Period 13
Period 15
Period 17
Period 19
Period 21
Period 23
Period 25
Period 27
Period 29
Period 31
Period 33
Period 35
Period 37

Period
Period 39
Period 41
Period 43
Period 45
Period 47
Period 49
Period 51
Period 53
Actual vs. Forecast

Period 55
Period 57
Period 59
Period 61
Period 63
Period 65
Period 67
Period 69
Period 71
Actual Value
Seasonalized Forecast
Problem Title
Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
12 seasons Enter the actual values in the cells shaded YELLOW. Do not change the time period numbers!
Enter the actual values in the cells shaded YELLOW. Do not change the time period numbers!

Input Data Seasonal Index Computation

Actual Time Seasonal Seasonal Unseasonal

Period value (Y) period (X) Centered average ratio index ized value
Period 1 281,463 1 0.902 312198.437
Period 2 282,445 2 0.891 316836.512
Period 3 319,107 3 1.005 317551.657
Period 4 315,278 4 0.987 319413.360
Period 5 328,499 5 1.049 313247.034
Period 6 321,151 6 1.026 312923.461
Period 7 328,025 7 321007.417 1.022 1.024 320293.329
Period 8 326,280 8 322004.208 1.013 1.039 313986.610
Period 9 313,444 9 323342.292 0.969 0.965 324930.753
Period 10 319,639 10 325003.375 0.983 0.978 326671.159
Period 11 324,067 11 326532.958 0.992 0.986 328698.286
Period 12 386,918 12 328451.208 1.178 1.145 337782.090
Period 13 293,009 13 330647.750 0.886 0.902 325005.247
Period 14 294,822 14 332819.708 0.886 0.891 330720.580
Period 15 338,844 15 334828.625 1.012 1.005 337192.458
Period 16 335,407 16 336300.417 0.997 0.987 339806.383
Period 17 345,080 17 337763.375 1.022 1.049 329058.191
Period 18 350,608 18 339308.583 1.033 1.026 341625.805
Period 19 351,285 19 341093.708 1.030 1.024 343005.083
Period 20 355,147 20 342911.333 1.036 1.039 341765.976
Period 21 332,791 21 344635.958 0.966 0.965 344986.761
Period 22 335,615 22 346248.042 0.969 0.978 342998.636
Period 23 343,202 23 348093.833 0.986 0.986 348106.747
Period 24 404,868 24 349926.000 1.157 1.145 353452.564
Period 25 317,902 25 351012.917 0.906 0.902 352616.535
Period 26 313,552 26 352276.042 0.890 0.891 351731.211
Period 27 361,505 27 353638.000 1.022 1.005 359743.007
Period 28 351,436 28 354690.417 0.991 0.987 356045.629
Period 29 373,350 29 355748.292 1.049 1.049 356015.635
Period 30 366,310 30 356784.750 1.027 1.026 356925.537
Period 31 361,669 31 357708.625 1.011 1.024 353144.328
Period 32 375,078 32 358516.125 1.046 1.039 360946.027
Period 33 345,547 33 359404.292 0.961 0.965 358210.229
Period 34 348,117 34 360194.292 0.966 0.978 355775.683
Period 35 356,089 35 361226.625 0.986 0.986 361177.917
Period 36 416,856 36 362393.208 1.150 1.145 363918.171
Period 37 328,087 37 363236.542 0.903 0.902 363913.725
Period 38 322,747 38 364168.292 0.886 0.891 362045.827
Period 39 373,626 39 364993.083 1.024 1.005 371804.928
Period 40 358,275 40 366132.667 0.979 0.987 362974.333
Period 41 391,287 41 367818.958 1.064 1.049 373119.834
Period 42 376,371 42 369033.958 1.020 1.026 366728.785
Period 43 371,848 43 369972.750 1.005 1.024 363083.405
Period 44 387,261 44 371448.542 1.043 1.039 372670.003
Period 45 353,159 45 372335.042 0.948 0.965 366101.185
Period 46 367,855 46 372827.958 0.987 0.978 375947.926
Period 47 376,822 47 373684.667 1.008 0.986 382207.215
Period 48 425,283 48 374216.000 1.136 1.145 371275.001
Period 49 342,191 49 374971.042 0.913 0.902 379557.866
Period 50 344,062 50 375454.292 0.916 0.891 385956.218
Period 51 373,587 51 375326.458 0.995 1.005 371766.119
Period 52 370,144 52 374660.583 0.988 0.987 374999.013
Period 53 399,979 53 372435.167 1.074 1.049 381408.271
Period 54 380,431 54 369295.458 1.030 1.026 370684.772
Period 55 385,909 55 366548.917 1.053 1.024 376812.982
Period 56 384,798 56 363690.417 1.058 1.039 370299.802
Period 57 352,554 57 360380.250 0.978 0.965 365474.014
Period 58 352,479 58 357320.792 0.986 0.978 360233.649
Period 59 338,788 59 354016.625 0.957 0.986 343629.666
Period 60 387,964 60 350919.792 1.106 1.145 338695.256
Period 61 313,593 61 348394.542 0.900 0.902 347836.997
Period 62 304,056 62 346023.375 0.879 0.891 341078.945
Period 63 334,149 63 344045.958 0.971 1.005 332520.341
Period 64 336,155 64 342800.292 0.981 0.987 340564.195
Period 65 354,668 65 342823.375 1.035 1.049 338201.027
Period 66 351,418 66 344045.625 1.021 1.026 342415.054
Period 67 354,316 67 1.024 345964.641
Period 68 359,483 68 1.039 345938.606
Period 69 330,411 69 0.965 342519.541
Period 70 344,726 70 0.978 352310.080
Period 71 347,095 71 0.986 352055.382
Period 72 408,991 72 1.145 357051.972

Intercept 330818.208
Slope 524.902

Seasonal Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6

0.886 0.886 1.012 0.997 1.022 1.033

0.906 0.890 1.022 0.991 1.049 1.027
0.903 0.886 1.024 0.979 1.064 1.020
0.913 0.916 0.995 0.988 1.074 1.030
0.900 0.879 0.971 0.981 1.035 1.021
Average 0.902 0.891 1.005 0.987 1.049 1.026
Forecasts for future periods
Unseasonal
ized Seasonal
Period forecast index Seasonalized forecast
73.000 369136.059 0.902 332795.204
74.000 369660.961 0.891 329535.537
75.000 370185.863 1.005 371999.005
76.000 370710.765 0.987 365911.271
77.000 371235.667 1.049 389311.094
78.000 371760.569 1.026 381535.082
79.000 372285.471 1.024 381272.198
80.000 372810.374 1.039 387406.866
81.000 373335.276 0.965 360137.355
82.000 373860.178 0.978 365812.194
83.000 374385.080 0.986 369110.077
84.000 374909.982 1.145 429446.748
bers!
bers!

Forecast Error analysis

Seasonaliz Absolute Absolute

Unseasonalized Forecast ed Forecast Error error Squared error % error
303393.205 273524.628 7938.372 7938.372 63017742.861 2.82%
306280.071 273034.424 9410.576 9410.576 88558940.469 3.33%
309099.452 310613.397 8493.603 8493.603 72141293.054 2.66%
311851.348 307813.891 7464.109 7464.109 55712917.694 2.37%
314535.760 329850.474 -1351.474 1351.474 1826481.833 0.41%
317152.687 325491.423 -4340.423 4340.423 18839271.564 1.35%
319702.130 327419.529 605.471 605.471 366594.729 0.18%
322184.088 334798.430 -8518.430 8518.430 72563652.881 2.61%
324598.561 313123.551 320.449 320.449 102687.532 0.10%
326945.549 319907.484 -268.484 268.484 72083.621 0.08%
329225.053 324586.345 -519.345 519.345 269719.265 0.16%
331437.072 379649.995 7268.005 7268.005 52823890.871 1.88%
333581.606 300741.030 -7732.030 7732.030 59784289.748 2.64%
335658.656 299224.065 -4402.065 4402.065 19378177.831 1.49%
337668.221 339322.094 -478.094 478.094 228573.672 0.14%
339610.301 335213.457 193.543 193.543 37459.039 0.06%
341484.897 358111.762 -13031.762 13031.762 169826810.032 3.78%
343292.008 352318.012 -1710.012 1710.012 2924140.094 0.49%
345031.634 353360.472 -2075.472 2075.472 4307582.205 0.59%
346703.776 360278.128 -5131.128 5131.128 26328474.950 1.44%
348308.433 335995.246 -3204.246 3204.246 10267195.365 0.96%
349845.605 342314.577 -6699.577 6699.577 44884331.812 2.00%
351315.293 346365.338 -3163.338 3163.338 10006710.139 0.92%
352717.496 404026.004 841.996 841.996 708957.816 0.21%
354052.214 319196.339 -1294.339 1294.339 1675313.869 0.41%
355319.448 316750.745 -3198.745 3198.745 10231972.722 1.02%
356519.196 358265.400 3239.600 3239.600 10495009.784 0.90%
357651.461 353021.042 -1585.042 1585.042 2512357.192 0.45%
358716.240 376182.097 -2832.097 2832.097 8020773.023 0.76%
359713.535 369171.302 -2861.302 2861.302 8187046.412 0.78%
360643.345 369349.039 -7680.039 7680.039 58982994.854 2.12%
361505.671 375659.555 -581.555 581.555 338206.400 0.16%
362300.511 349492.685 -3945.685 3945.685 15568433.782 1.14%
363027.868 355213.068 -7096.068 7096.068 50354186.185 2.04%
363687.739 358563.460 -2474.460 2474.460 6122949.917 0.69%
364280.126 417270.607 -414.607 414.607 171898.587 0.10%
364805.028 328890.556 -803.556 803.556 645701.578 0.24%
365262.445 325614.465 -2867.465 2867.465 8222355.299 0.89%
365652.378 367443.315 6182.685 6182.685 38225596.148 1.65%
365974.826 361236.647 -2961.647 2961.647 8771350.457 0.83%
366229.789 384061.480 7225.520 7225.520 52208139.379 1.85%
366417.268 376051.292 319.708 319.708 102212.973 0.08%
366537.262 375385.231 -3537.231 3537.231 12512001.867 0.95%
366589.771 380942.712 6318.288 6318.288 39920769.041 1.63%
366574.796 353615.868 -456.868 456.868 208728.437 0.13%
366492.336 358602.958 9252.042 9252.042 85600280.030 2.52%
366342.391 361180.708 15641.292 15641.292 244650007.911 4.15%
366124.962 419383.804 5899.196 5899.196 34800513.116 1.39%
365840.048 329823.679 12367.321 12367.321 152950618.767 3.61%
365487.649 325815.224 18246.776 18246.776 332944849.924 5.30%
365067.765 366855.839 6731.161 6731.161 45308528.749 1.80%
364580.397 359860.271 10283.729 10283.729 105755076.642 2.78%
364025.545 381749.911 18229.089 18229.089 332299694.081 4.56%
363403.207 372957.984 7473.016 7473.016 55845964.406 1.96%
362713.385 371469.048 14439.952 14439.952 208512217.887 3.74%
361956.078 376127.597 8670.403 8670.403 75175884.982 2.25%
361131.287 348364.794 4189.206 4189.206 17549444.584 1.19%
360239.010 352484.246 -5.246 5.246 27.521 0.00%
359279.249 354217.085 -15429.085 15429.085 238056651.872 4.55%
358252.004 410365.596 -22401.596 22401.596 501831508.844 5.77%
357157.274 321995.711 -8402.711 8402.711 70605545.369 2.68%
355995.059 317353.021 -13297.021 13297.021 176810776.599 4.37%
354765.359 356502.972 -22353.972 22353.972 499700074.487 6.69%
353468.175 348891.916 -12736.916 12736.916 162229023.008 3.79%
352103.506 369247.389 -14579.389 14579.389 212558591.459 4.11%
350671.352 359891.377 -8473.377 8473.377 71798120.908 2.41%
349171.714 357600.490 -3284.490 3284.490 10787873.321 0.93%
347604.591 361214.212 -1731.212 1731.212 2997095.318 0.48%
345969.983 333739.464 -3328.464 3328.464 11078673.168 1.01%
344267.891 336856.932 7869.068 7869.068 61922224.359 2.28%
342498.314 337672.589 9422.411 9422.411 88781835.726 2.71%
340661.252 390215.983 18775.017 18775.017 352501270.219 4.59%
Average 6479.884 73076504.864 1.85%
MAD MSE MAPE

Season 7 Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12

1.022 1.013 0.969 0.983 0.992 117.80%
1.030 1.036 0.966 0.969 0.986 115.70%
1.011 1.046 0.961 0.966 0.986 115.03%
1.005 1.043 0.948 0.987 1.008 113.65%
1.053 1.058 0.978 0.986 0.957 110.56%

1.024 1.039 0.965 0.978 0.986 114.55%

 450000.000
Trend Analysis

400000.000

350000.000

300000.000
Value

250000.000

Actual
200000.000 values
Trend line

150000.000

100000.000

50000.000

0.000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Time
Problem Title
Forecasting Linear trend analysis
Enter
Enter the
the actual
actual values
values in
in cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Enter
Enter new
new time
time period
period at
at the
the bottom
bottom to
to forecast
forecastY.
Y.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Actual value Period number Absolute
Period (or) Y (or) X Forecast Error error
Period 1 312198.437 1 331343.110 -19144.672 19144.672
Period 2 316836.512 2 331868.012 -15031.500 15031.500
Period 3 317551.657 3 332392.914 -14841.257 14841.257
Period 4 319413.360 4 332917.816 -13504.456 13504.456
Period 5 313247.034 5 333442.718 -20195.684 20195.684
Period 6 312923.461 6 333967.620 -21044.159 21044.159
Period 7 320293.329 7 334492.522 -14199.193 14199.193
Period 8 313986.610 8 335017.424 -21030.814 21030.814
Period 9 324930.753 9 335542.326 -10611.573 10611.573
Period 10 326671.159 10 336067.228 -9396.070 9396.070
Period 11 328698.286 11 336592.131 -7893.845 7893.845
Period 12 337782.090 12 337117.033 665.058 665.058
Period 13 325005.247 13 337641.935 -12636.687 12636.687
Period 14 330720.580 14 338166.837 -7446.257 7446.257
Period 15 337192.458 15 338691.739 -1499.281 1499.281
Period 16 339806.383 16 339216.641 589.743 589.743
Period 17 329058.191 17 339741.543 -10683.352 10683.352
Period 18 341625.805 18 340266.445 1359.360 1359.360
Period 19 343005.083 19 340791.347 2213.735 2213.735
Period 20 341765.976 20 341316.249 449.727 449.727
Period 21 344986.761 21 341841.151 3145.610 3145.610
Period 22 342998.636 22 342366.053 632.582 632.582
Period 23 348106.747 23 342890.955 5215.791 5215.791
Period 24 353452.564 24 343415.857 10036.707 10036.707
Period 25 352616.535 25 343940.760 8675.775 8675.775
Period 26 351731.211 26 344465.662 7265.550 7265.550
Period 27 359743.007 27 344990.564 14752.443 14752.443
Period 28 356045.629 28 345515.466 10530.163 10530.163
Period 29 356015.635 29 346040.368 9975.268 9975.268
Period 30 356925.537 30 346565.270 10360.267 10360.267
Period 31 353144.328 31 347090.172 6054.156 6054.156
Period 32 360946.027 32 347615.074 13330.953 13330.953
Period 33 358210.229 33 348139.976 10070.253 10070.253
Period 34 355775.683 34 348664.878 7110.805 7110.805
Period 35 361177.917 35 349189.780 11988.136 11988.136
Period 36 363918.171 36 349714.682 14203.489 14203.489
Period 37 363913.725 37 350239.584 13674.140 13674.140
Period 38 362045.827 38 350764.486 11281.341 11281.341
Period 39 371804.928 39 351289.389 20515.540 20515.540
Period 40 362974.333 40 351814.291 11160.042 11160.042
Period 41 373119.834 41 352339.193 20780.641 20780.641
Period 42 366728.785 42 352864.095 13864.690 13864.690
Period 43 363083.405 43 353388.997 9694.408 9694.408
Period 44 372670.003 44 353913.899 18756.104 18756.104
Period 45 366101.185 45 354438.801 11662.384 11662.384
Period 46 375947.926 46 354963.703 20984.223 20984.223
Period 47 382207.215 47 355488.605 26718.610 26718.610
Period 48 371275.001 48 356013.507 15261.493 15261.493
Period 49 379557.866 49 356538.409 23019.456 23019.456
Period 50 385956.218 50 357063.311 28892.907 28892.907
Period 51 371766.119 51 357588.213 14177.905 14177.905
Period 52 374999.013 52 358113.115 16885.898 16885.898
Period 53 381408.271 53 358638.018 22770.253 22770.253
Period 54 370684.772 54 359162.920 11521.853 11521.853
Period 55 376812.982 55 359687.822 17125.160 17125.160
Period 56 370299.802 56 360212.724 10087.079 10087.079
Period 57 365474.014 57 360737.626 4736.388 4736.388
Period 58 360233.649 58 361262.528 -1028.879 1028.879
Period 59 343629.666 59 361787.430 -18157.764 18157.764
Period 60 338695.256 60 362312.332 -23617.077 23617.077
Period 61 347836.997 61 362837.234 -15000.237 15000.237
Period 62 341078.945 62 363362.136 -22283.192 22283.192
Period 63 332520.341 63 363887.038 -31366.697 31366.697
Period 64 340564.195 64 364411.940 -23847.746 23847.746
Period 65 338201.027 65 364936.842 -26735.816 26735.816
Period 66 342415.054 66 365461.745 -23046.691 23046.691
Period 67 345964.641 67 365986.647 -20022.006 20022.006
Period 68 345938.606 68 366511.549 -20572.942 20572.942
Period 69 342519.541 69 367036.451 -24516.909 24516.909
Period 70 352310.080 70 367561.353 -15251.272 15251.272
Period 71 352055.382 71 368086.255 -16030.873 16030.873
Period 72 357051.972 72 368611.157 -11559.185 11559.185
Average 13672.113
Intercept 330818.208 MAD
Slope 524.902

Next period 369136.059 73

 Absolute
Squared error % error
366518478.480 6.13%
225945987.170 4.74%
220262915.668 4.67%
182370320.945 4.23%
407865646.412 6.45%
442856620.886 6.73%
201617078.169 4.43%
442295151.446 6.70%
112605485.745 3.27%
88286129.937 2.88%
62312783.300 2.40%
442301.765 0.20%
159685863.726 3.89%
55446742.947 2.25%
2247844.112 0.44%
347796.352 0.17%
114134016.441 3.25%
1847859.758 0.40%
4900624.638 0.65%
202254.002 0.13%
9894860.020 0.91%
400160.280 0.18%
27204479.784 1.50%
100735487.462 2.84%
75269072.262 2.46%
52788214.640 2.07%
217634577.286 4.10%
110884331.983 2.96%
99505964.053 2.80%
107335133.381 2.90%
36652803.100 1.71%
177714307.014 3.69%
101409989.795 2.81%
50563551.890 2.00%
143715414.230 3.32%
201739101.228 3.90%
186982118.261 3.76%
127268655.237 3.12%
420887376.173 5.52%
124546541.693 3.07%
431835044.228 5.57%
192229637.729 3.78%
93981550.041 2.67%
351791438.507 5.03%
136011202.955 3.19%
440337599.221 5.58%
713884102.402 6.99%
232913182.881 4.11%
529895367.413 6.06%
834800056.475 7.49%
201012992.629 3.81%
285133540.411 4.50%
518484425.539 5.97%
132753089.037 3.11%
293271116.602 4.54%
101749155.840 2.72%
22433369.879 1.30%
1058592.164 0.29%
329704404.698 5.28%
557766304.215 6.97%
225007123.895 4.31%
496540629.800 6.53%
983869682.300 9.43%
568714974.638 7.00%
714803832.922 7.91%
531149954.616 6.73%
400880717.530 5.79%
423245951.413 5.95%
601078850.744 7.16%
232601309.572 4.33%
256988879.745 4.55%
133614757.113 3.24%
242150928.873 3.91%
MSE MAPE
Unseasonalized value
312198.437457226
316836.512025174
317551.656715684
319413.360405529
Unseas
313247.034218232 450000
312923.461316381
320293.329349272 400000
313986.6099608
350000
324930.753166597
326671.158517901 300000
328698.285864076
337782.090298659 250000
325005.247442485
330720.579752822 200000
337192.457602525
339806.383488658 150000
329058.190642978
341625.805073668 100000
343005.08254084
341765.975750117 50000
344986.760879344
342998.635541925 0
0 10 20 30 40
348106.746768793
353452.564458199
352616.534551706
351731.211451849
359743.006768899
356045.628706974
356015.635436872
356925.536943068
353144.327817764
360946.027004036
358210.228827025
355775.683473469
361177.916650115
363918.171378788
363913.724894671
362045.827494163
371804.92841603
362974.332808794
373119.833783815
366728.785085855
363083.405020557
372670.002942348
366101.185084297
375947.925680542
382207.21479161
371275.000668061
379557.865552224
385956.218026184
371766.118503957
374999.013169153
 381408.27064793
370684.772309761
376812.982046637
370299.80243869
365474.013705467
360233.648845202
343629.665690485
338695.255533806
347836.996683485
341078.944574435
332520.341264494
340564.194669849
338201.026889312
342415.05375627
345964.640749079
345938.606437839
342519.541240313
352310.080407091
352055.382164773
357051.97197685
 Unseasonalized value

Unseasonalized value

30 40 50 60 70 80