Course: Statistical Inference
& Applications
Instructor In Charge:
Dr. J. K. Sahoo
Course information
What is for?
This course provides an elementary
introduction to classical decision theory with
different kind of testing techniques for
probabilistic models.
Topics in the Course
Review of Probability theory & Statistics
Hypotheses Testing: Parametric
Hypotheses testing: Non Parametric
Analysis of Variation (ANOVA)
Quality Control
Course Goals
Students at the end of course should
be able to do the following:
Understand the concepts and methods of
hypotheses testing
implementation of the techniques in their
future upcoming problems in related
fields.
Can implement any kind of survey data.
Books
Prerequisite: Probability & Statistics
Textbooks (required):
A. Operations research EDD Notes, Part-I
B. Sheldon M. Ross: Introductory Statistics, 2nd Edition,
Elsevier.
References:
1. Introductory statistics, Neil A. Weiss, 9th edition
Pearson Education Inc.
2. Introduction to the theory of Statistics: Alexander
M. Mood, Franklin A. Graybil, Duane C. Boes, 3rd
Edition, MacGraw Hill. For Details refer handout.
Grading
Grades for the course will be based on
the following weighting
Software implementation: 10%
Test-1,2,3: 45% (includes soft. Impl.)
Quizzes: 5%
Project Assignment: 25%
Final exam: 25%
Checking web page
I am highly recommend that each student check
this web page at least every thrice a week for
new announcements.
http://quanta.bits-goa.ac.in/
Statistics
Descriptive statistics
Inferential statistics
Inferential Statistics
Population?
1. Involves:
Estimation
Hypothesis
Testing
2. Purpose
Make Inferences
about Population
Characteristics
Inference Process
Estimates Population
& tests
Sample
statistic
Ex.: (X) Sample
Key terms
Population
All items of interest
Sample
Portion of population
Parameter
Summary Measure about Population
Statistic
Summary Measure about sample
6.1 Population and Sample
Population: refer to a population in
term of its probability distribution or
frequency distribution.
Population f(x)/X means a population
described by a probability distribution
f(x)/random variable X.
Population might be infinite or it is impossible
to observe all its values even finite, it may be
impractical or uneconomical to observe it.
Sample
Sample: a part of population.
Random samples (Why we need?):
such results can be useful only if the
sample is in some way
“representative”.
Negative example: performance of a
tire if it is tested only on a smooth
roads; family incomes based on the
data of home owner only.
Sampling
Representative sample
Same characteristics as the population
Random sample
Every subset of the population has an
equal chance of being selected
Random sample
Random sample:
A set of observations
X 1 , X 2 ,, X n
constitutes a random sample of size n
from a population X if
(a) X i 's are independent
(b) X i 's have same distribution as of X .
Discussion
Ways assuring the selection of a
sample is at least approximately
random
Both finite population and infinite
population
Sampling Distribution
If a random sample of size n is taken from a
population having the mean and the
variance ,2 then X is a random variable
whose distribution has the mean
2
and variance .
n
Central limit theorem
If X is the mean of a sample of size n
taken from a population having the
mean and variance 2, then
X
Z
/ n
is a random variable whose distribution
function approaches that of the
standard normal distribution as n
Central Limit Theorem
As
x
sample n
sampling
size gets distribution
large becomes
enough almost
(n 30) ... normal.
X
x
6.2 The sampling distribution
of the Mean ( unknown)
If n is large, it doesn’t matter whether
is known or not, as it is reasonable in that
case to substitute for it the sample
standard deviation s.
Question: how about n is a small value?
We need to make the assumption that the
sample comes from a normal population.
Assumption: population having
normal distribution
If X is the mean of a random sample
of size n taken from a normal
population having the mean and
n 2
the variance , and S
2 2 ( X i X ) ,
n 1
then i 1
X
t
S/ n
is a random variable having the t
distribution with the parameter n 1
t-distribution
t
P(t t )
6.4 The Sampling distribution of
the variance
2
If is the variance of a random sample of size
S
n taken from a normal population having the
variance 2 then
n
2 ( X i X )2
( n 1) S
2 2
i 1
2
is a random variable having the chi-square
distribution with the parameter n 1
Chi-square distribution
2
n ,
Likelihood Function
Likelihood function:
Let ( X 1 , X 2, , X n ) be a random sample obtained
from a population f(x,θ).The joint probability
distribution of the random sample is called
likelihood function and defined by
L( ) f ( x1 , ). f ( x2 , ).. f ( xn , ).
