ASSIGNMENT-2 MODULE 2
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Submitted By: Narendra Singh
USN: 19MBAR0271
BFAS
Module 2: Process Management and Facility Management
Activity 2.1:
Among the given below scenarios, what is best suitable method or combination of methods for
qualitative forecasting decisions? Give justification remarks with examples.
A. VRL - A logistic company interested in expanding its geographical coverage of supply
and distribution based upon development in market demand.
VRL Company should conduct consumer market survey method for qualitative forecasting. This
method will help the company for the required situation.
Consumer market survey:-
This method will allow the company to understand the primary intention to be a customer
understanding the intention allow companies to determine which a their product sale better.
Information on Focus group that target segments according to the descriptive the company
provides to their prospective buyers. In this way, it will provide information about consumer's
geographical distribution like their age, need of products & the immediacy of the customers to
embrace the product. This survey also allows companies to understand the price range customer
prefer.
B. HUL interested in product update & new product development in various portfolios.
HUL company can apply combination of qualitative forecast methods like executive opinion,
consumer expectation and Delphi method for their product update and new product development
in various portfolios.
Executive opinion:-
This is also called as a jury of expert opinion approach. The opinion of experts is sought under
this method & the meritorious one is accepted. An opinion of starting a new product is received
from various experts and decision. The opinion may be on the area of sales, finance, purchase
and the like. Some ideas are generated which can be evaluated for their feasibility and
profitability. Experts may request comment on the opinion of the others in order to arrive at a
concensus of opinion. Thus, a varied range of management viewpoints can be considered.
Forecasts can be prepared quickly without elaborate data. This approach is inexpensive and not
as time consuming as other judgemental approach. This will help HUL company in developing
new products in various portfolios.
Consumer's expectation:-
This method can be used for product update. The forecaster can poll, in person or by
questionnaire, customers or clients about expected future behaviour with the help of customer
opinion on product update. The HUL company can improve their product as per the customer
needs. This method can be effective if the right person are sampled in enough numbers. But this
method can only be used for the company who can bear the high cost in conducting this
approach.
C. KOMFORT ROYAL – a furniture company would be interested in aggressive push
strategies & interested for developing promotional programs.
Komfort Royal Company can apply Sales force opinion for push strategies and developing
promotional programs for their products.
Sales force opinion:-
In this method, ask each salesperson to project their sales. The sales team is closest to the
marketplace and is knowledgeable about the desire of the customer. So the opinion expressed by
the salespersons is of great value. Here, the Sales force of the existing product can be forecast
with the help of opinion of salesperson. A reasonable sales trend can be predicted based on the
opinions of salespersons. And as sales teams are direct linked with consumers, they can help to
make strategy for promoting the existing product.
D. GENIUS SOFT – an app development company looking for reduction in lead time of
new app development.
Genius Soft Company can apply deductive method and Delphi method for reducing in lead time
while developing new app.
Deductive method:-
In this method investigation is made into the causes of the present situation and the relative
importance of the factors that will influence the future volume of this activity. The main feature
of this method is that it is not guided by the end and relies on the present situation for probing
into the future. Here, forecasting is based on the assumption that the results obtained in past in
some particular circumstances cannot be the base for the same circumstances in future, because
many factors change in the course of time due to changes in economic, social, political
circumstances and trade cycle. Reducing lead time can mean reduced inventory and more cash
on hand for the businesses. In several aspects it means less risk, exposure and management of
materials. It is important factor for the customer satisfaction. Typically customers wants services
as fast as possible with minimal effort
Activity 2.2:
From the given below table, shares the data from 2016 to 2018, no. of cars sold in a
dealer of MarutiSuzuki showroom. Identify the requirement for the following ‘January’.
Period Business Demand Exp. Exp. MSE : α = 0.3 MSE : α = 0.5
cycle Smooth Smoothing
Ei (Ei)2 Ei (Ei)2
ing α = 0.5
α = 0.3
2016 I quarter 1100 - - - - - -
II quarter 900 1100 1100 -200 40000 -200 40000
III 920 1040 1000 -120 14400 -80 6400
quarter
IV 1200 1004 960 196 38416 240 57600
quarter
2017 I quarter 1400 1062.8 1080 337.2 113703.84 320 102400
II quarter 1600 1163.4 1240 436.54 190567.172 360 129600
6
III 1750 1294.4 1420 455.58 207553.136 330 108900
quarter 2
IV 1410 1431.0 1585 -21.09 444.7881 -175 30625
quarter 9
2018 I quarter 1300 1418.3 1497.5 -118.34 14004.3556 -187.5 35156.
4 25
II quarter 1840 1385.5 1403.75 454.49 206561.16 436.25 190314
1 .063
III 2010 1521.8 1185.625 488.143 238283.588 824.37 679594
quarter 57 5 .141
IV 1650 166.29 1597.8125 -18.299 334.8534 52.187 2723.5
quarter 9 5 352
2019 I quarter ????? 1662.8 1623.9063
09
The Forecasted demand in January 2019 is 1662.809~1663 when α=0.3 and
1623.903~1624 when α=0.5.
Activity 2.3:
From the given below table, identify 5 examples each with detailed specification.
Product – Process matrix 5 examples with specification details
Job Shop Mobile phone parts manufacturing
Car parts manufacturing
Finished garment Manufacturing
Gear manufacturing
Batch Shop Make up Manufacturing
Clothing Production
Computer software
Newspaper production
Computer chip manufacturing
Assembly Line Car Manufacturing
Petroleum refining
Satellite Manufacturing
Football manufacturing
Manufacturing of Pencils
Continuous / Mass Sugar Processing
Steel Processing
Fertilizer Production
Cement Production
Beer production
