Our globe is undergoing major climate change with the level of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere is rising significantly.

We can see from satellite images and research that the ice caps are melting faster, our sea
levels are rising, and weather patterns are changing. We are experiencing more water
shortages and we will see hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones increasing in ferocity and
frequency. The deserts will expand and the world will ultimately have difficulty growing
enough food. Without doubt, we have to change the way we live.

There are a few scientists who claim our earth is going about business as usual. In dealing
with global warming, we should at least adopt an approach based on the precautionary
principle. "The precautionary principle states that if the potential consequences of an action
are severe or irreversible, in the absence of full scientific certainty the burden of proof falls
on those who would advocate taking the action."

Thousands of scientists from a hundred countries are working on the scientific aspects of
climate change. They are not just proving this theory to be correct, but they are also
advising on what action we must take.

The earth has gone through many natural climatic cycles during its long history. The scary
part is we are causing changes to happen at an unbelievable rate, much faster than normal.
Burning fossil fuels pours out greenhouse gases at a life-threatening rate and causing global
warming. Global Warming, Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change .... they are all happening
right now!

The rate of climate change is now so fast we are struggling to adapt our philosophies,
economics, and lifestyle to slow it down. We must alter the way we live or we will suffer
staggering consequences.

There is a lot of information on this site and I trust it adds to your understanding about
greenhouse issues. I also hope it leads you to discover more about global climate change
and what you must do.

This is a crisis of global proportion, but please don't despair! Come with me and understand
what causes global warming and climate change, then act, do something.... You Can Make
A Difference

Climate change refers to the variation at a global or regional level over time. It describes
the variability or average state of the atmosphere or average weather over time scales
ranging from decades to millions of years. These variations may come from processes
internal to the Earth, be driven by external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or,
most recently, be caused by human activities.

If you are not sure of the difference between 'climate' and 'weather', click on the link to find
out: Climate-Weather.
No time to read all this? Visit Facts and Impacts for a one page summary, or listen to four
scientists from Columbia University explain future climatic uncertainties. With Peter
DeMenocal, Gavin Schmidt, Maxx Dilly and Klaus Lackner.

Why do you think we measure weather?

Find out here

Just as weather patterns change from day to day, the climate changes too. This occurs
naturally, driven by internal and external factors. However not all changes are due to
natural processes, as we humans have also exerted our influence, which is called
anthropogenic climate change.
Through widespread use of land, use of fossil fuels and the building of cities, we have
changed our climate. The major technological and socioeconomic shift of the industrial era
with reduced reliance on organic fuel, the accelerated uptake of fossil fuels, and broad scale
deforestation, means we have contributed to the natural greenhouse effect.

The key areas for concern are those related to variability and extremes, not simply changed
average conditions. There is an accumulating body of evidence of observed impacts relating
to regional changes, and that these are having fearful effects on the world around us.

There are already people who have become climate refugees, and millions more are
expected in the future. Temperatures across the globe are most certainly rising; the 1990s
was the warmest decade in the last thousand years. Sea surface temperatures have
increased 0.4-0.8°C (0.7-1.4°F) since the late 19 Century, and over the period 1961 to
2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C (0.18°F) from the surface to a depth of
700 m.
The world has warmed 0.74°C in the past hundred years and scientists are clear that the
world will get warmer this century due to further increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations. Global average temperature is forecast to rise 4°C (7.2°F) toward the end
of the 21st century.

Warming of a few degrees seems inconsequential compared with day to day, or seasonal
variations in temperature. However, in global terms it is much larger than any of the
climatic changes experienced during the past 10,000 years, since the rise of agriculture and
civilisations. Although the Earth has seen many climatic changes during its 4.6 billion year
history, the current changes are spurred by the human burning of fossil fuels.

In addition to warming of the Earth’s surface, there has been an increase in heatwaves,
warming of the lower atmosphere and deep oceans. There are fewer frosts, permafrost is
melting, glaciers are retreating and sea ice is decreasing. Sea levels have risen 10–20 cm
and there is increased heavy rainfall in some regions, and less in others.

Climatic changes over recent decades have already affected some health outcomes. The
World Health Organisation estimated, in its "World Health Report 2002", that climate change
was estimated to be responsible in 2000 for approximately 2.4% of worldwide diarrhoea,
and 6% of malaria in some middle-income countries. Epidemics of weather and climate-
sensitive infectious diseases such as malaria and meningitis will have a devastating effect
on human health and socio-economic development and severely overburden health systems
in many parts of the world.

The Fourth Assessment Report released in 2007, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) stated that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”. As seen below, The
Report also shows why there is cause for deep concern:

Hydrology and Glaciers - Glaciers are retreating, and snow cover is decreasing (e.g.
Davos in the Swiss Alps) with earlier snowmelt, and changing snow ecology. There is also
reductions in the annual duration of lake and river ice.

Sea Ice - Declining sea-ice extent and thickness.

Animals - Poleward and elevational shifts in range, and alteration in species abundance
(e.g. Sea Turtles ). Over a million species are predicted to become extinct by 2050 (e.g.
Boyd's Forest Dragon, Cassowaries ). Changes in phenology (including earlier reproduction
and migration), physiological and morphological adaptation.

Plants Change in abundance, diversity, and range, change in phenology (including earlier
flowering), change in growth.

The previous Australian Government, whilst not signing the Kyoto Protocol have
acknowledged, “The projected global warming of a few degrees in the 21st century would
occur at a time that is already one of the warmest for hundreds of thousands of years, with
current levels of carbon dioxide not exceeded for the past 420,000 years, and not likely
during the past 20 million years".

A few degrees of global warming will lead to more heat waves and fewer frosts. More
wildfires and droughts are expected in some regions of the world with higher rainfalls and
resultant flooding in other areas. Higher latitudes of the globe would receive more rainfall
while middle latitudes, including parts of Australia, are likely to receive less. For these areas
the changes will pose significant problems for water resource management.

Tropical hurricanes and cyclones may become stronger and sea levels will rise over the
coming decades. Some low-lying coastal areas and islands are already feeling the effect,
and will be more prone to inundation from storm surges.

Human induced climate change is another major stress in a world where natural and social
systems are already experiencing pollution, increasing resource demands and unsustainable
management practices.

Government's of the world are slowly responding, but is the response quick enough? At this
stage the answer is, no. An international carbon price and developed carbon trading
markets must be fast tracked. We must also move quickly to renewable energy as the
source for our electricity and transport fuels.
Impact Of Climate Change
Equal To Nuclear War
by Viktor Danilov-Danilyan
Moscow (RIA Novosti) Jun 29, 2007
Global climate change defies forecasting. Unprecedented
heat, floods, droughts and typhoons brought about by
climate change cause tremendous damage. The number
of such calamities has doubled over the last 10 years,
according to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry.
-
Some experts think there is nothing to worry about-periodic
alterations in the climate are normal. Some believe the general
alarm is the result of a mere lack of knowledge. But then, the danger posed by climate
change is no smaller than the danger posed by nuclear war, and we have to face and
evaluate it, however vague it might appear.

There is no way to hide from global warming. In fact, the repercussions of climate
change might be even worse because the entire climatic system will be thrown out of
balance. The average surface temperature is going up, and so are annual deviations
from it.

Natural calamities go hand in hand with warming. Disastrous floods are getting more
frequent in Russia and many other countries. They account for more than half of
weather-related dangers.
Floods alternate with droughts in European Russia's south. Heavy rains in spring and
early summer cause floods, after which there is not a single raindrop for three months,
destroying those crops that survive the floods.

The Kuban and Stavropol regions, Russia's breadbasket, permanently face this danger.

Economic disasters caused by natural calamities are becoming ever more frequent. The
World Bank estimates Russia's weather damages, largely caused by climate change, at
an annual 30-60 billion rubles, roughly $1-$2 billion.

Floods, usually caused by typhoons, are also frequent in the Russian Far East-the
Primorye and Khabarovsk territories, Kamchatka, Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Winter
floods are typical of the Arctic Ocean basin.

The spring inundation of the Lena, the largest Eurasian river, washed away the town
and port of Lensk in 2001. The town was rebuilt on a new site. The evacuation and
ensuing housing and infrastructural reconstruction cost an exorbitant sum.

Average warming in Russia due to anthropogenic factors is about one degree. In

Siberia, it is four to six degrees-enough to shrink the permafrost area. Pernicious effects
are visible even now, with the borders of the taiga, forest tundra and tundra itself
receding northward-suffice it to compare space photographs from 30 years ago with the
latest ones.

The change endangers oil pipelines and the entire infrastructure of Siberia's west and
northwest. Permafrost thawing has not yet achieved a scale that poses a threat of
infrastructural accidents-but we can never be too careful.

Warming also poses a great danger to regional flora and fauna, which have to undergo
a very painful adaptation process. Considerable warming will result in changes to
ecosystems, for example, broadleaved woods ousting the coniferous taiga. Warming
makes the climate unstable, with bitter frosts and sultry summers, which is bad for both
forest types-conifers suffer in the heat, while broadleaf trees do not survive frosty
winters. So the biota will face many shocks before the climate stabilizes.

Warming is also a major problem for marshes and the permafrost, which will release
accumulated methane and carbon dioxide gas. Gas hydrates from the northern sea
shelf will vaporize. All that will drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations, spurring the warming on in a vicious circle.

The environmental balance has already been upset. Many plants and animals will
suffer. In particular, the polar bear's habitat is doomed to shrink, and millions of wild
geese, eiders, brants and other birds will lose half of their nesting grounds in a matter of
20-40 years. A three to four degree warming may interrupt the food chain of the tundra
ecosystem, lead to the extinction of many species.
Invasions of ecosystems by alien species are one of the worst manifestations of global
warming. Thus, locusts are moving north, and have become frequent guests in the
Samara Region on the Volga and certain other areas. The mite habitat is rapidly
expanding, too. Pests migrate north far quicker than the border between, for example,
the taiga and the forest tundra shifts. Once they find themselves in a foreign ecosystem,
pests become gangster species, crowding out the native biota with dynamic
multiplication. Climate change thus brings epidemics in its wake. Subtropical malarial
mosquitoes now feel at home in the area around Moscow.

Scientists who welcome warming as a boon for Russian agriculture are entirely wrong.
True, the vegetation period is becoming longer-but this benefit is outweighed by the
hazard of spring frosts destroying young crops.

Another argument in favor of warming is the energy that would be saved by a reduced
need for heating. But then, the United States uses more energy for air conditioning than
Russia does for heating even now.

How can humankind fight climate change? It's no use opposing Nature-but we can
reduce pollution and other adverse environmental effects brought about by humankind.
The problem appeared on the political agenda in the 20th century.

The World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988, which brought
together several thousand scientists, including Russians.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 1994. One
hundred and ninety countries have joined it since then. The document determines the
scope of the international partnership to deal with the issue, whose first achievement
was the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Intensive economic activities are surely bad for the
climate. That is why the protocol demands a reduction in air pollution caused by
methane, carbon dioxide and other gases.

Russia ratified the protocol along with another 166 countries, and has been true to its
pledge. It is introducing new, clean technologies for industry and everyday life. Cleaner
air will help reverse the trend of climate change

BEGINNING WITH the Industrial revolution in the 19th century and

accelerating since then, there has been an increase in the emissions of
various green house gases (CO2,CH4,N2O,SF6,HFC & PFC) in the
atmosphere causing an abnormal increase in the temperature of earth.

Due to the presence of these gases, the heat that earth receives from the
sun is not radiated back to the desired extent and the heat gets entrapped in
this process, thus  raising the earth’s average temperature.

As the ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy emitted by

the earth’s surface is essential for a stable climate, this heightened
temperature may introduce de-stabilising influence and potentially affect
global weather patterns and eventually long term climate change.

The human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated the CO2 levels from a
concentration of approximately 280 ppm in pre industrial times to 387 ppm
today. The concentration is increasing by 2-3 ppm/year. If the current rate
of emissions continues, then these increasing emissions are projected to be
of the tune of 538-987 ppm by the end of the 21st century. Cement industry
is the major contributor of CO2 constituting five per cent of the total Carbon
dioxide produced.

Aerosols, small particles suspended in air with a lifetime of at least minutes,

are either emitted as primary aerosols (dust or particle emissions of diesel
cars) or formed by the conversion of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides,
ammonia and organic compounds present in atmosphere. By chemical reactions
these gases form sulphates, nitrates and ammonium compounds, and non-
volatile organics (secondary aerosol). These particulate matters also play an
important role in Climate change.

Along with rising Methane levels it is suggested that due to all these factors there
will be a rise of 1.4-5.6 degree celsius in the earth’s average temperature
between 1990-2100. The increase of methane level is mainly due to
livestock and paddy fields.

Prior to widespread use of fossil fuels, humanity’s biggest threat to climate

change was from land use, agriculture, irrigation and deforestation. With the
changin pattern of land use, the pattern on absorption and redirection of
sunlight changes causing local climate change.

There is evidence to suggest that the climate of Mediterranean and Greece

was completely changed to hot and dry because of widespread deforestation
between 700 BC to 1 AD.
The changes may lead to a rise in sea levels, a change in vegetation zones,
an increase in disease levels and a change in ecosystems. The possible effect
of climate change may be sea level rise in Bangladesh and Pacific, risk of flooding
of Maldives, storm surges risk to Florida, melting of the glaciers of the
European alps, which will have an economic impact to ski resorts, soil
erosion and crop failure in sub Saharan region. Apart from these, North
Atlantic Ocean current may change, which in turn will affect climate of Great
Britain. The list is long, these are a few of them.

As per WWF reports, 300 million people across nations will find themselves
at greater risk of malaria and other water borne diseases by 2020. It further
states that ice sheets and sea level rise will put around 100 million people at
risk of coastal flooding. Impact of climate change has already started to show in
Sunderbans where agriculture productivity has declined putting a lot of
people at risk of starvation.
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The Climate Is Indeed  

Changing…
But now it’s a growing list of business, religious and political leaders who are warming to
solutions – and agreeing that it’s time to find practical solutions to address the problem of global
warming.

“There’s no time to wait because tomorrow is now. We are living in a carbon-constrained world where
the amount of CO2 must be reduced...
But industry cannot get there alone. We need to work in concert with the government and environmental
groups to promote and reward leadership.”
   — Jeffrey Immelt, Chairman and CEO of GE, Ecomagination Launch, May 9, 2005

 “We accept that the science on global warming is overwhelming... There should be mandatory
carbon constraints.”
    — John W. Rowe, Exelon Chairman and CEO, Business Week, August 16, 2004

“When you have energy companies like Shell and British Petroleum…saying there is a problem
with excess carbon dioxide emissions, I think we ought to listen.”
    — Former Secretary of State James Baker, March 3, 2005

“I  think God is going to ask us what we did with the earth he created.”
   — The Rev. Rich Cizik, vice president of governmental affairs for the National Association of
Evangelicals, New York Times, March 10, 2005

To find out more about the importance of the Climate Stewardship Act and the threat of global
warming, visit www.undoit.org  and http://www.climatecrisis.net/
AT HUMANITY'S DOORSTEP
New York Times editorial

February 4, 2007

Should Congress require any further reason to move aggressively to limit greenhouse gas
emissions, it need only read Friday’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, the world’s authoritative voice on global warming.

A distillation of the best peer-reviewed science, the report expresses more than 90 percent
certainty that man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have caused the steady rise in
atmospheric temperatures, with the destruction of tropical rain forests playing a lesser but
important role.

The report warns that if society keeps to its current course, emissions will increase to twice their
preindustrial levels by the end of this century, causing temperatures to rise 3.5 to 8 degrees. The
consequences will include rising seas, more powerful hurricanes, disappearing coral reefs and
more intensive droughts in subtropical countries.

The report also offers hope, suggesting that what humans have caused, humans can mitigate; that
even though the world is committed to centuries of further warming, the process can be slowed
and the worst effects averted by swift and decisive action to limit and reverse emissions.

This is the fourth in a series of studies that began in 1990. The first left open the possibility that
the warming that began with the onset of the Industrial Revolution and increased in the 1950s
was "largely due to natural variability." The second and third reports detected a bigger human
role, and this one lays the whole problem at humanity’s doorstep.

A later paper will address specific remedies. But many climate experts believe the world must
embark on a swift and sustained shift in the way energy is produced and used — away from fuels
like oil and coal, and toward cleaner alternatives.

That is the objective of the many global warming bills now circulating in Washington. The best
of these would put a price on carbon through a mandatory cap on emissions from sources like
power plants and cars, thus making coal and oil relatively more expensive while driving the
market toward cleaner sources of energy.

As we have learned over the years, talk is cheap in Washington, while meaningful action is
almost certain to be expensive. President Bush has brandished those very real costs of moving to
a new energy-delivery system again and again to argue against mandatory caps on emissions and
to make the case for his own cost-free (and demonstrably inadequate) program of voluntary
reductions. Yet what the panel is telling us is that the costs of doing nothing, especially to future
generations, will be far greater than the price of acting now.
This is not a report compiled by a bunch of activists or alarmists. It is a consensus document, the
inherently conservative product of three years of study and debate among mainstream scientists
from 150 countries with often competing agendas. And in its modesty, it is alarming enough.

Has Mankind Begun Triggering Abrupt and Extreme Climate

Changes?
by Jon Traudt

The National Academy of Sciences says that global warming could lead to "large, abrupt and
unwelcome" changes in the climate. The scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change say that dramatic effort must begin with this generation and that if strong steps are not
taken soon, the opportunity to redress global warming may be lost. Climate science is an
incredibly complex field, but think of human-induced atmospheric change hitting a critical mass
point at which various chain reactions are triggered that cannot be undone by mankind.

In Global warming: It's happening, Kevin E. Trenberth reported that the consensus on the
accumulated global warming due to mankind's actions appears to be only about 1 degree F. so
far. However, as the following information suggests, we may have begun to trigger abrupt and
extreme climate changes.

In chapter 12 of their book Natural Capitalism, Amory and Hunter Lovins said, "If high-latitude
tundras get much warmer, ice-like compounds called methane hydrates trapped beneath the
permafrost and on the  Arctic ocean floor could thaw and start releasing enormous amounts of
methane—more than ten times what is now in the atmosphere". NOTE: The tundras have
already begun melting.

In the October 1998 issue, The Economist concluded, "Climate change is a legitimate worry.
Although still riddled with uncertainties, the science of climate change is becoming firmer: put
too much carbon in the atmosphere and you might end up cooking the earth, with possibly
catastrophic results". Could we possibly be in the process of triggering abrupt and extreme
climate change that mankind cannot reverse and may not survive?

Scientists have found evidence that rapid and catastrophic global warming occurred long ago due
to massive releases of methane into the atmosphere. Mankind's release of greenhouse gasses has
already warmed the arctic regions enough to thaw some of the massive amounts of frozen
methane in the permafrost and on the ocean floor. Will mankind be intelligent and caring enough
to avoid triggering a chain reaction of positive feedback mechanisms that could quickly result in
catastrophic global warming.

The United States emits more than 1,800 million metric tons of carbon equivalent each year,
more than 6 tons per person (See "Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States, 1998"
from the U.S. Energy Information Administration). The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere as a result of such extravagant energy use, may, by warming the Earth, release
enough  methane to rapidly accelerate global warming.

Eight Ways that "Mother Nature" is Helping Mankind to

Accelerate Climate Change
1. As arctic regions continue to get warmer, huge areas of permafrost have been thawing,
allowing thick layers of long-frozen plant material to decay and release both methane and carbon
dioxide. Methane is more than 21 times as effective as carbon dioxide in trapping heat in our
atmosphere. (See The Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gases, and Global Warming, a report
published by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies). 

2. Methane is also released from gas hydrate deposits on the sea floor when the local water
temperature rises a few degrees above freezing. (For details, see page 76 of the November 1999
issue of Scientific American).

3. The solubility of carbon dioxide in water decreases as temperature rises. Thus, as oceans
warm, their ability to continue absorbing massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere decreases. The average temperature of the earth's oceans has increased about 1
degree C. during the last 25 years.

4. Open water in polar regions absorb more solar heat than ice or snow do. The Surface Heat
Budget of the Arctic Ocean Project, or SHEBA, an international expedition to the Arctic, has
documented changes in the ice pack consistent with changes expected as a result of global
warming. The ship, CCGS Des Groseilliers, is located in the black area in the middle of the
satellite image below, which shows much of the ice is covered by dark melt ponds.

5.  Preliminary findings from SHEBA show that the Arctic ice
sheet is about five percent smaller, and one meter thinner,
than in the 1970s. Some melting of ice is due to dark dust
from human activities that settles on the ice and increases
absorption of heat from the sun.

Scientists believe that the on-going disappearance of the

ice pack could accelerate global warming because
ocean water absorbs more incoming solar radiation
than does the ice.

NOTE: Thawing in the arctic regions is partially due to

the soot, released during the burning of coal and diesel
fuel, that settles on the ice and increases absorption of
heat from the sun. Arctic and Antarctic regions have
warmed about four time more than regions near the
equator.

6. CO2 from the thawing peat bogs is being released into the atmosphere at an accelerating rate.

7. Global warming has increased the frequency and severity of drought in many regions.
Droughts reduce the accumulation of plant biomass, which sequesters a large portion of the
earth's store of labile carbon. The loss of vegetation caused by drought thus results in a net
release of carbon from the biosphere into the atmosphere

8. Global warming is causing stratification of the world's oceans, which is preventing the up-
welling of colder, nutrient-rich waters on which the phytoplankton depend to fix atmospheric
carbon dioxide. But as their numbers decline, they absorb less CO2, creating a vicious
climatic feedback loop.

Major Climate Shifts

Global warming may be to blame for slowing currents in the Atlantic Ocean but the likely result
will be a much colder Western Europe, no longer warmed by north flowing tropical waters. More
of the warmth is staying in the mid-Atlantic ocean, where hurricanes begin and grow. Scientists
estimate that the recent 1° F. increase in mid-Atlantic surface temperature has enabled the peak
destructiveness of hurricanes to increase about 50%.

Climate Threshold May Alter Economic Picture Of

Climate Change

Source: Penn State

Mar 04, 2005

Potential climate thresholds like collapse of ocean circulation system call into question the
results of previous economic analysis of climate change policies.

Typical economic analysis applied to global warming may be biased because they neglect
climate thresholds, according to Penn State researchers.

"Economic models of climate change typically assume that changes occur gradually and
reversibly," says Dr. Klaus Keller, assistant professor of geoscience, Penn State. "However,
some environmental effects are not smooth and show a threshold response. For a long time
nothing or very little happens and then suddenly a large change occurs."

Keller and William E. Easterling, professor of geography and director of the Penn State Institutes
of the Environment, analyze two potential threshold responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions – a widespread bleaching of corals and a collapse of oceanic circulation systems.
These events could happen suddenly and predictions about whether and when they would happen
are uncertain.

These potential climate thresholds call into question the results of previous economic analysis of
climate change policies, Keller told attendees today (Feb. 18) at the annual meeting of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.

"Economic analyses typically neglect that greenhouse gas emissions might trigger climate
thresholds with potentially significant ecological and economic impacts," says Keller. "Analyses
neglecting the potential fro negative impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are biased toward too
high greenhouse gas emissions. We need more realistic representations of the potential
environmental threshold responses in economic analyses."

The uncertainty about the climate thresholds and the potential for an abrupt response pose special
challenges to the design of climate policies. One key question is whether the current observation
system would deliver an actionable early warning signal about possible ocean circulation
changes.

"Think about the situation where you are in a canoe on a river with a waterfall, says Keller. "You
may want to know the location of the waterfall early enough to be able to avoid going over the
waterfall. The situation for climate thresholds is similar. One may want to see early warning
signals before it is too late to avoid the threshold response."

Key questions are how confident we have to be in an early warning signal before we consider it
sufficient to take action, and how to design and implement an observation system that could
deliver an actionable warning signal.

"Observation systems that would yield actionable early warning signal about climate thresholds
have the potential to improve climate policies considerably. Implementing such observation
systems could very well be a highly profitable investment for future generations."

Climate Warming at Steep Rate

"There is no known precedent of natural forces that could have given rise to the
temperatures of the last decade".
by Jonathan Overpeck
Director of the University of Arizona’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth. February 23, 2000

A new analysis by government scientists indicates that the Earth’s climate is warming at an
unprecedented rate, suggesting that the future impact of global warming may be more severe and
sudden than predicted.

Such a steep warming rate was not expected to occur until well into the 21st century, said Tom
Karl, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climatologist who led the study.
Such a trend probably would be a continuation of the recent three-year string of steamy
summers-mild winters seen by much of the nation and perhaps eventually would mean increased
flooding of low-lying areas.

"The next few years are going to be interesting", Karl said. "It could the beginning of a new
increase in temperatures".

Historical and geological records how that Earth warms and cools in fits and starts, not at a
constant rate. During the 1900s, most warming occurred between 1910 and 1940 and then after
1970. On average, though, warming throughout the century occurred at a rate of just over one-
degree per century.

In contrast, warming since 1976 occurred at a rate of nearly four degrees per century. The
increase in warming, Karl said, could be evidence for a "change point" — a period during which
Earth’s climate begins warming at a faster rate.

The analysis, published in the March 1st, 2000 issue of the journal Geophysical Research
Letters, already is generating much interest, and some disagreement, among climatologists.

The current debate is not over whether the climate is warming. Most scientists agree that Earth
has warmed significantly since the 1880s, when temperatures were first routinely recorded.

Earlier this year, a blue-ribbon panel of climate experts commissioned by the National Academy
of Sciences quashed most lingering doubts by calling global warming over the past 100 years
"undoubtedly real".

Questions now center on how quickly the Earth is warming, what the effects of that warming
might be and whether the warming is caused largely by human or natural causes. The answers
are crucial, scientists said, for developing effective environmental policies.

The global warming issue began receiving renewed attention in 1997, which was the hottest year
on record— until 1998.

"In 1998, each month we were breaking the previous year’s all-time global high temperature
record", Karl said. The two-year string of warm months prompted Karl and colleagues Richard
Knight and Bruce Baker to analyze the Earth’s warming rate.
The hot spell continued into 1999, which was the fifth-warmest year on record despite the
occurrence of a cooling La Nina event.

Karl said he could not be certain that the warm years of 1997, 1998 and 1999 were evidence of
an increased warming trend. But a statistical analysis suggests that there was only a 5 percent —
or one in 20 — chance that such temperatures would not be part of a warming trends he said.

A number of other climatologists agree that the extreme warming of the late 1990s is an ominous
sign.

"That rate is not only unprecedented in the instrumental records (since 1880) but unprecedented
in the last 1,000 years at least", said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the University of Arizona’s
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and an expert in paleoclimatic records. "There is no known
precedent of natural forces that could have given rise to the temperatures of the last decade".

Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,
Colorado, said he found the new analysis interesting but questioned whether recent warm years
should be attributed to a large shift in human-induced global warming. The period between May
1997 and August 1998, he said, included El Nino events known to cause warming.

"Those months were unusual", he said, "but they weren’t unusual due to human influences".

Karl disagreed, saying that temperatures were far higher than could be explained by an El Nino
event. He said 1999 was the fifth hottest year on record, despite being a cool La Nina year.

CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES IN THE UNITED STATES

At a side event June 11, 2002 at the Sixteenth Session of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released
a publication summarizing climate change efforts in the United States.  The publication,
“Climate Change Activities in the United States,” focuses in particular on efforts:

 In Congress, where twice as many climate change proposals were introduced in the past
year as in the previous four years combined;

 At the state level, where governments are enacting mandatory carbon controls and other
programs to reduce emissions; and

 In the business community, where a growing number of corporations are setting

greenhouse gas targets and achieving significant emission reductions.

The full report is now available online: http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/us_activities2.CFM

While these activities reflect growing support for stronger climate change action in the United States,
the report notes they represent only a start toward the sustained, comprehensive effort needed to
significantly reduce U.S. emissions.  An overview of the kinds of measures that could help launch such an
effort is provided in another Pew publication, “The U.S. Domestic Response to Climate Change: Key
Elements of a Prospective Program.”  http://www.pewclimate.org/policy/index_dom.CFM

"It was not until we saw the picture of

the earth, from the moon, that we
realized how small and how helpless
 
this planet is — something that we
must hold in our arms and care for."
       — Margaret Mead

Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) extracted from ice cores drilled in Greenland and
Antarctica have typically ranged from near 190 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the
ice ages to near 280 ppmv during the warmer “interglacial” periods, like the present one that
began around 10,000 years ago. Concentrations did not rise much above 280 ppmv until the
Industrial Revolution. By 1958, when systematic atmospheric measurements began, they had
reached 315 ppmv. They are currently ~370 ppmv and rising at a rate of 1.5 ppmv per year
(slightly higher than the rate during the early years of the 43-year record). Human activities are
responsible for the increase. The primary source, fossil fuel burning, has released roughly twice
as much CO2 as would be required to account for the observed increase. Tropical deforestation
also has contributed to CO2 releases during the past few decades. The oceans and land biosphere
have taken up the excess CO2.

Like CO2, methane (CH4) is more abundant in Earth’s atmosphere now than at any time during
the 400,000-year ice core record, which dates back over a number of glacial/interglacial cycles.
Concentrations increased rather smoothly by about 1 percent per year from 1978 until about
1990. The rate of increase slowed and became more erratic during the 1990s. About two-thirds
of the current CH4 emissions are released by human activities, such as rice growing, the raising
of cattle, coal mining, use of land-fills, and natural gas handling, all of which have increased
over the past 50 years.

Suggested Actions:
Global warming is already reducing our quality of life. Are you willing to help prevent further
climate changes? If so, you can lead by setting a good example for others to follow.

Using energy efficient methods and products that are already available can make a big difference
in stopping this threat. Greater use of renewable energy systems and energy efficiency could help
to minimize global warming, ensuring better health for Americans as well as creating millions of
new jobs and a competitive edge for the U.S. economy. For assistance in making your home
more efficient, comfortable and safe, go to: www.energystar.gov and Energy Efficient Homes