Advanced Scheduling

Techniques
    Use of Advanced
Scheduling Techniques
    Scheduling with
Uncertain Durations
    Calculations for Monte
Carlo Schedule Simulation
    Crashing and Time/Cost
Tradeoffs
    Scheduling in Poorly
Structured Problems
    Improving the Scheduling
Process
    References
    Problems
    Footnotes

11. Advanced Scheduling Techniques

11.1 Use of Advanced Scheduling Techniques
Construction project scheduling is a topic that has received extensive research over a
number of decades. The previous chapter described the fundamental scheduling
techniques widely used and supported by numerous commercial scheduling systems. A
variety of special techniques have also been developed to address specific circumstances
or problems. With the availability of more powerful computers and software, the use of
advanced scheduling techniques is becoming easier and of greater relevance to practice.
In this chapter, we survey some of the techniques that can be employed in this regard.
These techniques address some important practical problems, such as:

 scheduling in the face of uncertain estimates on activity durations,

 integrated planning of scheduling and resource allocation,
 scheduling in unstructured or poorly formulated circumstances.

A final section in the chapter describes some possible improvements in the project
scheduling process. In Chapter 14, we consider issues of computer based implementation
of scheduling procedures, particularly in the context of integrating scheduling with other
project management procedures.

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11.2 Scheduling with Uncertain Durations

Section 10.3 described the application of critical path scheduling for the situation in
which activity durations are fixed and known. Unfortunately, activity durations are
estimates of the actual time required, and there is liable to be a significant amount of
uncertainty associated with the actual durations. During the preliminary planning stages
for a project, the uncertainty in activity durations is particularly large since the scope and
obstacles to the project are still undefined. Activities that are outside of the control of the
owner are likely to be more uncertain. For example, the time required to gain regulatory
approval for projects may vary tremendously. Other external events such as adverse
weather, trench collapses, or labor strikes make duration estimates particularly uncertain.

Two simple approaches to dealing with the uncertainty in activity durations warrant some
discussion before introducing more formal scheduling procedures to deal with
uncertainty. First, the uncertainty in activity durations may simply be ignored and
scheduling done using the expected or most likely time duration for each activity. Since
only one duration estimate needs to be made for each activity, this approach reduces the
required work in setting up the original schedule. Formal methods of introducing
uncertainty into the scheduling process require more work and assumptions. While this
simple approach might be defended, it has two drawbacks. First, the use of expected
activity durations typically results in overly optimistic schedules for completion; a
numerical example of this optimism appears below. Second, the use of single activity
durations often produces a rigid, inflexible mindset on the part of schedulers. As field
managers appreciate, activity durations vary considerable and can be influenced by good
leadership and close attention. As a result, field managers may loose confidence in the
realism of a schedule based upon fixed activity durations. Clearly, the use of fixed
activity durations in setting up a schedule makes a continual process of monitoring and
updating the schedule in light of actual experience imperative. Otherwise, the project
schedule is rapidly outdated.

A second simple approach to incorporation uncertainty also deserves mention. Many

managers recognize that the use of expected durations may result in overly optimistic
schedules, so they include a contingency allowance in their estimate of activity durations.
For example, an activity with an expected duration of two days might be scheduled for a
period of 2.2 days, including a ten percent contingency. Systematic application of this
contingency would result in a ten percent increase in the expected time to complete the
project. While the use of this rule-of-thumb or heuristic contingency factor can result in
more accurate schedules, it is likely that formal scheduling methods that incorporate
uncertainty more formally are useful as a means of obtaining greater accuracy or in
understanding the effects of activity delays.

The most common formal approach to incorporate uncertainty in the scheduling process
is to apply the critical path scheduling process (as described in Section 10.3) and then
analyze the results from a probabilistic perspective. This process is usually referred to as
the PERT scheduling or evaluation method. [1] As noted earlier, the duration of the
critical path represents the minimum time required to complete the project. Using
expected activity durations and critical path scheduling, a critical path of activities can be
identified. This critical path is then used to analyze the duration of the project
incorporating the uncertainty of the activity durations along the critical path. The
expected project duration is equal to the sum of the expected durations of the activities
along the critical path. Assuming that activity durations are independent random
variables, the variance or variation in the duration of this critical path is calculated as the
sum of the variances along the critical path. With the mean and variance of the identified
critical path known, the distribution of activity durations can also be computed.

The mean and variance for each activity duration are typically computed from estimates
of "optimistic" (ai,j), "most likely" (mi,j), and "pessimistic" (bi,j) activity durations using
the formulas:

(11.1)

and

(10.2)

where and are the mean duration and its variance, respectively, of an
activity (i,j). Three activity durations estimates (i.e., optimistic, most likely, and
pessimistic durations) are required in the calculation. The use of these optimistic, most
likely, and pessimistic estimates stems from the fact that these are thought to be easier for
managers to estimate subjectively. The formulas for calculating the mean and variance
are derived by assuming that the activity durations follow a probabilistic beta distribution
under a restrictive condition. [2] The probability density function of a beta distributions
for a random varable x is given by:

(11.3)

;     

where k is a constant which can be expressed in terms of and . Several beta

distributions for different sets of values of and are shown in Figure 11-1. For a beta

distribution in the interval having a modal value m, the mean is given by:
(11.4)

If + = 4, then Eq. (11.4) will result in Eq. (11.1). Thus, the use of Eqs. (11.1) and
(11.2) impose an additional condition on the beta distribution. In particular, the restriction
that  = (b - a)/6 is imposed.

Figure 11-1  Illustration of Several Beta Distributions

Since absolute limits on the optimistic and pessimistic activity durations are extremely
difficult to estimate from historical data, a common practice is to use the ninety-fifth
percentile of activity durations for these points. Thus, the optimistic time would be such
that there is only a one in twenty (five percent) chance that the actual duration would be
less than the estimated optimistic time. Similarly, the pessimistic time is chosen so that
there is only a five percent chance of exceeding this duration. Thus, there is a ninety
percent chance of having the actual duration of an activity fall between the optimistic and
pessimistic duration time estimates. With the use of ninety-fifth percentile values for the
optimistic and pessimistic activity duration, the calculation of the expected duration
according to Eq. (11.1) is unchanged but the formula for calculating the activity variance
becomes:

(11.5)

The difference between Eqs. (11.2) and (11.5) comes only in the value of the divisor,
with 36 used for absolute limits and 10 used for ninety-five percentile limits. This
difference might be expected since the difference between bi,j and ai,j would be larger for
absolute limits than for the ninety-fifth percentile limits.

While the PERT method has been made widely available, it suffers from three major
problems. First, the procedure focuses upon a single critical path, when many paths might
become critical due to random fluctuations. For example, suppose that the critical path
with longest expected time happened to be completed early. Unfortunately, this does not
necessarily mean that the project is completed early since another path or sequence of
activities might take longer. Similarly, a longer than expected duration for an activity not
on the critical path might result in that activity suddenly becoming critical. As a result of
the focus on only a single path, the PERT method typically underestimates the actual
project duration.

As a second problem with the PERT procedure, it is incorrect to assume that most
construction activity durations are independent random variables. In practice, durations
are correlated with one another. For example, if problems are encountered in the delivery
of concrete for a project, this problem is likely to influence the expected duration of
numerous activities involving concrete pours on a project. Positive correlations of this
type between activity durations imply that the PERT method underestimates the variance
of the critical path and thereby produces over-optimistic expectations of the probability of
meeting a particular project completion deadline.

Finally, the PERT method requires three duration estimates for each activity rather than
the single estimate developed for critical path scheduling. Thus, the difficulty and labor
of estimating activity characteristics is multiplied threefold.

As an alternative to the PERT procedure, a straightforward method of obtaining

information about the distribution of project completion times (as well as other schedule
information) is through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique calculates sets
of artificial (but realistic) activity duration times and then applies a deterministic
scheduling procedure to each set of durations. Numerous calculations are required in this
process since simulated activity durations must be calculated and the scheduling
procedure applied many times. For realistic project networks, 40 to 1,000 separate sets of
activity durations might be used in a single scheduling simulation. The calculations
associated with Monte Carlo simulation are described in the following section.

A number of different indicators of the project schedule can be estimated from the results
of a Monte Carlo simulation:

 Estimates of the expected time and variance of the project completion.

 An estimate of the distribution of completion times, so that the probability of
meeting a particular completion date can be estimated.
 The probability that a particular activity will lie on the critical path. This is of
interest since the longest or critical path through the network may change as
activity durations change.

The disadvantage of Monte Carlo simulation results from the additional information
about activity durations that is required and the computational effort involved in
numerous scheduling applications for each set of simulated durations. For each activity,
the distribution of possible durations as well as the parameters of this distribution must be
specified. For example, durations might be assumed or estimated to be uniformly
distributed between a lower and upper value. In addition, correlations between activity
durations should be specified. For example, if two activities involve assembling forms in
different locations and at different times for a project, then the time required for each
activity is likely to be closely related. If the forms pose some problems, then assembling
them on both occasions might take longer than expected. This is an example of a positive
correlation in activity times. In application, such correlations are commonly ignored,
leading to errors in results. As a final problem and discouragement, easy to use software
systems for Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules are not generally available. This
is particularly the case when correlations between activity durations are desired.

Another approach to the simulation of different activity durations is to develop specific

scenarios of events and determine the effect on the overall project schedule. This is a type
of "what-if" problem solving in which a manager simulates events that might occur and
sees the result. For example, the effects of different weather patterns on activity durations
could be estimated and the resulting schedules for the different weather patterns
compared. One method of obtaining information about the range of possible schedules is
to apply the scheduling procedure using all optimistic, all most likely, and then all
pessimistic activity durations. The result is three project schedules representing a range of
possible outcomes. This process of "what-if" analysis is similar to that undertaken during
the process of construction planning or during analysis of project crashing.

Example 11-1: Scheduling activities with uncertain time durations.

Suppose that the nine activity example project shown in Table 10-2 and Figure 10-4 of
Chapter 10 was thought to have very uncertain activity time durations. As a result, project
scheduling considering this uncertainty is desired. All three methods (PERT, Monte
Carlo simulation, and "What-if" simulation) will be applied.
Table 11-1 shows the estimated optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations for the
nine activities. From these estimates, the mean, variance and standard deviation are
calculated. In this calculation, ninety-fifth percentile estimates of optimistic and
pessimistic duration times are assumed, so that Equation (11.5) is applied. The critical
path for this project ignoring uncertainty in activity durations consists of activities A, C,
F and I as found in Table 10-3 (Section 10.3). Applying the PERT analysis procedure
suggests that the duration of the project would be approximately normally distributed.
The sum of the means for the critical activities is 4.0 + 8.0 + 12.0 + 6.0 = 30.0 days, and
the sum of the variances is 0.4 + 1.6 + 1.6 + 1.6 = 5.2 leading to a standard deviation of
2.3 days.

With a normally distributed project duration, the probability of meeting a project deadline
is equal to the probability that the standard normal distribution is less than or equal to
(PD -  D)| D where PD is the project deadline, D is the expected duration and D is
the standard deviation of project duration. For example, the probability of project
completion within 35 days is:

where z is the standard normal distribution tabulated value of the cumulative standard
distribution appears in Table B.1 of Appendix B.

Monte Carlo simulation results provide slightly different estimates of the project duration
characteristics. Assuming that activity durations are independent and approximately
normally distributed random variables with the mean and variances shown in Table 11-1,
a simulation can be performed by obtaining simulated duration realization for each of the
nine activities and applying critical path scheduling to the resulting network. Applying
this procedure 500 times, the average project duration is found to be 30.9 days with a
standard deviation of 2.5 days. The PERT result is less than this estimate by 0.9 days or
three percent. Also, the critical path considered in the PERT procedure (consisting of
activities A, C, F and I) is found to be the critical path in the simulated networks less than
half the time.

TABLE 11-1  Activity Duration Estimates for a Nine Activity Project

Activity Optimistic Duration Most Likely Duration Pessimistic Duration Mean Variance
A 3 4 5 4.0 0.4
B 2 3 5 3.2 0.9
C 6 8 10 8.0 1.6
D 5 7 8 6.8 0.9
E 6 9 14 9.3 6.4
F 10 12 14 12.0 1.6
G 2 2 4 2.3 0.4
H 4 5 8 5.3 1.6
I 4 6 8 6.0 1.6

If there are correlations among the activity durations, then significantly different results
can be obtained. For example, suppose that activities C, E, G and H are all positively
correlated random variables with a correlation of 0.5 for each pair of variables. Applying
Monte Carlo simulation using 500 activity network simulations results in an average
project duration of 36.5 days and a standard deviation of 4.9 days. This estimated average
duration is 6.5 days or 20 percent longer than the PERT estimate or the estimate obtained
ignoring uncertainty in durations. If correlations like this exist, these methods can
seriously underestimate the actual project duration.

Finally, the project durations obtained by assuming all optimistic and all pessimistic
activity durations are 23 and 41 days respectively. Other "what-if" simulations might be
conducted for cases in which peculiar soil characteristics might make excavation
difficult; these soil peculiarities might be responsible for the correlations of excavation
activity durations described above.

Results from the different methods are summarized in Table 11-2. Note that positive
correlations among some activity durations results in relatively large increases in the
expected project duration and variability.

TABLE 11-2  Project Duration Results from Various Techniques and Assumptions for an
Example
Standard Deviation
Procedure and Assumptions Project Duration (days) of Project Duration (days)
Critical Path Method 30.0 NA
PERT Method 30.0 2.3
Monte Carlo Simulation
   No Duration Correlations 30.9 2.5
   Positive Duration Correlations 36.5 4.9
"What-if" Simulations
   Optimistic 23.0 NA
   Most Likely 30.0 NA
   Pessimistic 41.0 NA

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11.3 Calculations for Monte Carlo Schedule Simulation

In this section, we outline the procedures required to perform Monte Carlo simulation for
the purpose of schedule analysis. These procedures presume that the various steps
involved in forming a network plan and estimating the characteristics of the probability
distributions for the various activities have been completed. Given a plan and the activity
duration distributions, the heart of the Monte Carlo simulation procedure is the derivation
of a realization or synthetic outcome of the relevant activity durations. Once these
realizations are generated, standard scheduling techniques can be applied. We shall
present the formulas associated with the generation of normally distributed activity
durations, and then comment on the requirements for other distributions in an example.

To generate normally distributed realizations of activity durations, we can use a two step
procedure. First, we generate uniformly distributed random variables, u i in the interval
from zero to one. Numerous techniques can be used for this purpose. For example, a
general formula for random number generation can be of the form:

(11.6)

where = 3.14159265 and ui-1 was the previously generated random number or a pre-
selected beginning or seed number. For example, a seed of u0 = 0.215 in Eq. (11.6) results
in u1 = 0.0820, and by applying this value of u1, the result is u2 = 0.1029. This formula is
a special case of the mixed congruential method of random number generation. While
Equation (11.6) will result in a series of numbers that have the appearance and the
necessary statistical properties of true random numbers, we should note that these are
actually "pseudo" random numbers since the sequence of numbers will repeat given a
long enough time.

With a method of generating uniformly distributed random numbers, we can generate

normally distributed random numbers using two uniformly distributed realizations with
the equations: [3]

(11.7)

with

where xk is the normal realization, x is the mean of x, x is the standard deviation of x,

and u1 and u2 are the two uniformly distributed random variable realizations. For the case
in which the mean of an activity is 2.5 days and the standard deviation of the duration is
1.5 days, a corresponding realization of the duration is s = 2.2365, t = 0.6465 and xk =
2.525 days, using the two uniform random numbers generated from a seed of 0.215
above.

Correlated random number realizations may be generated making use of conditional

distributions. For example, suppose that the duration of an activity d is normally
distributed and correlated with a second normally distributed random variable x which
may be another activity duration or a separate factor such as a weather effect. Given a
realization xk of x, the conditional distribution of d is still normal, but it is a function of
the value xk. In particular, the conditional mean ( 'd|x = xk) and standard deviation ( 'd|
x = xk) of a normally distributed variable given a realization of the second variable is:

(11.8)

where dx is the correlation coefficient between d and x. Once x k is known, the

conditional mean and standard deviation can be calculated from Eq. (11.8) and then a
realization of d obtained by applying Equation (11.7).

Correlation coefficients indicate the extent to which two random variables will tend to
vary together. Positive correlation coefficients indicate one random variable will tend to
exceed its mean when the other random variable does the same. From a set of n historical
observations of two random variables, x and y, the correlation coefficient can be
estimated as:

(11.9)

The value of xy can range from one to minus one, with values near one indicating a
positive, near linear relationship between the two random variables.

It is also possible to develop formulas for the conditional distribution of a random

variable correlated with numerous other variables; this is termed a multi-variate
distribution. [4] Random number generations from other types of distributions are also
possible. [5] Once a set of random variable distributions is obtained, then the process of
applying a scheduling algorithm is required as described in previous sections.

Example 11-2: A Three-Activity Project Example

Suppose that we wish to apply a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to a simple project
involving three activities in series. As a result, the critical path for the project includes all
three activities. We assume that the durations of the activities are normally distributed
with the following parameters:
Activity Mean (Days) Standard Deviation (Days)
A 2.5 1.5
B 5.6 2.4
C 2.4 2.0

To simulate the schedule effects, we generate the duration realizations shown in Table
11-3 and calculate the project duration for each set of three activity duration realizations.

For the twelve sets of realizations shown in the table, the mean and standard deviation of
the project duration can be estimated to be 10.49 days and 4.06 days respectively. In this
simple case, we can also obtain an analytic solution for this duration, since it is only the
sum of three independent normally distributed variables. The actual project duration has a

mean of 10.5 days, and a standard deviation of

days. With only a limited number of simulations, the mean obtained from simulations is
close to the actual mean, while the estimated standard deviation from the simulation
differs significantly from the actual value. This latter difference can be attributed to the
nature of the set of realizations used in the simulations; using a larger number of
simulated durations would result in a more accurate estimate of the standard deviation.

TABLE 11-3  Duration Realizations for a Monte Carlo Schedule Simulation

Simulation Number Activity A Activity B Activity C Project Duration
1 1.53 6.94 1.04 9.51
2 2.67 4.83 2.17 9.66
3 3.36 6.86 5.56 15.78
4 0.39 7.65 2.17 10.22
5 2.50 5.82 1.74 10.06
6 2.77 8.71 4.03 15.51
7 3.83 2.05 1.10 6.96
8 3.73 10.57 3.24 17.53
9 1.06 3.68 2.47 7.22
10 1.17 0.86 1.37 3.40
11 1.68 9.47 0.13 11.27
12 0.37 6.66 1.70 8.72
Estimated Mean Project Duration = 10.49
Estimated Standard Deviation of Project Duration = 4.06
Note: All durations in days.

Example 11-3: Generation of Realizations from Triangular Distributions

To simplify calculations for Monte Carlo simulation of schedules, the use of a triangular
distribution is advantageous compared to the normal or the beta distributions. Triangular
distributions also have the advantage relative to the normal distribution that negative
durations cannot be estimated. As illustrated in Figure 11-2, the triangular distribution
can be skewed to the right or left and has finite limits like the beta distribution. If a is the
lower limit, b the upper limit and m the most likely value, then the mean and standard
deviation of a triangular distribution are:

(11.10)

(11.11)

The cumulative probability function for the triangular distribution is:

(11.12)

where F(x) is the probability that the random variable is less than or equal to the value of
x.
Figure 11-2  Illustration of Two Triangular Activity Duration Distributions

Generating a random variable from this distribution can be accomplished with a single
uniform random variable realization using the inversion method. In this method, a
realization of the cumulative probability function, F(x) is generated and the
corresponding value of x is calculated. Since the cumulative probability function varies
from zero to one, the density function realization can be obtained from the uniform value
random number generator, Equation (11.6). The calculation of the corresponding value of
x is obtained from inverting Equation (11.12):

(11.1
3)

For example, if a = 3.2, m = 4.5 and b = 6.0, then x = 4.8 and x = 2.7. With a

uniform realization of u = 0.215, then for (m-a)/(b-a) 0.215, x will lie between a and m
and is found to have a value of 4.1 from Equation (11.13).
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11.4 Crashing and Time/Cost Tradeoffs

The previous sections discussed the duration of activities as either fixed or random
numbers with known characteristics. However, activity durations can often vary
depending upon the type and amount of resources that are applied. Assigning more
workers to a particular activity will normally result in a shorter duration. [6] Greater
speed may result in higher costs and lower quality, however. In this section, we shall
consider the impacts of time, cost and quality tradeoffs in activity durations. In this
process, we shall discuss the procedure of project crashing as described below.

A simple representation of the possible relationship between the duration of an activity

and its direct costs appears in Figure 11-3. Considering only this activity in isolation and
without reference to the project completion deadline, a manager would undoubtedly
choose a duration which implies minimum direct cost, represented by D ij and Cij in the
figure. Unfortunately, if each activity was scheduled for the duration that resulted in the
minimum direct cost in this way, the time to complete the entire project might be too long
and substantial penalties associated with the late project start-up might be incurred. This
is a small example of sub-optimization, in which a small component of a project is
optimized or improved to the detriment of the entire project performance. Avoiding this
problem of sub-optimization is a fundamental concern of project managers.

Figure 11-3  Illustration of a Linear Time/Cost Tradeoff for an Activity

At the other extreme, a manager might choose to complete the activity in the minimum
possible time, Dcij, but at a higher cost Ccij. This minimum completion time is commonly
called the activity crash time. The linear relationship shown in the figure between these
two points implies that any intermediate duration could also be chosen. It is possible that
some intermediate point may represent the ideal or optimal trade-off between time and
cost for this activity.

What is the reason for an increase in direct cost as the activity duration is reduced? A
simple case arises in the use of overtime work. By scheduling weekend or evening work,
the completion time for an activity as measured in calendar days will be reduced.
However, premium wages must be paid for such overtime work, so the cost will increase.
Also, overtime work is more prone to accidents and quality problems that must be
corrected, so indirect costs may also increase. More generally, we might not expect a
linear relationship between duration and direct cost, but some convex function such as
the nonlinear curve or the step function shown in Figure 11-4. A linear function may be a
good approximation to the actual curve, however, and results in considerable analytical
simplicity. [7]

Figure 11-4  Illustration of Non-linear Time/Cost Tradeoffs for an Activity

With a linear relationship between cost and duration, the critical path time/cost tradeoff
problem can be defined as a linear programming optimization problem. In particular, let
Rij represent the rate of change of cost as duration is decreased, illustrated by the absolute
value of the slope of the line in Figure 11-3. Then, the direct cost of completing an
activity is:

(11.14)

where the lower case cij and dij represent the scheduled duration and resulting cost of the
activity ij. The actual duration of an activity must fall between the minimum cost time
(Dij) and the crash time (Dcij). Also, precedence constraints must be imposed as described
earlier for each activity. Finally, the required completion time for the project or,
alternatively, the costs associated with different completion times must be defined. Thus,
the entire scheduling problem is to minimize total cost (equal to the sum of the cij values
for all activities) subject to constraints arising from (1) the desired project duration, PD,
(2) the minimum and maximum activity duration possibilities, and (3) constraints
associated with the precedence or completion times of activities. Algebraically, this is:

(11.15
)
subject to the constraints:

where the notation is defined above and the decision variables are the activity durations
dij and event times x(k). The appropriate schedules for different project durations can be
found by repeatedly solving this problem for different project durations PD. The entire
problem can be solved by linear programming or more efficient algorithms which take
advantage of the special network form of the problem constraints.

One solution to the time-cost tradeoff problem is of particular interest and deserves
mention here. The minimum time to complete a project is called the project-crash time.
This minimum completion time can be found by applying critical path scheduling with all
activity durations set to their minimum values (Dcij). This minimum completion time for
the project can then be used in the time-cost scheduling problem described above to
determine the minimum project-crash cost. Note that the project crash cost is not found
by setting each activity to its crash duration and summing up the resulting costs; this
solution is called the all-crash cost. Since there are some activities not on the critical path
that can be assigned longer duration without delaying the project, it is advantageous to
change the all-crash schedule and thereby reduce costs.

Heuristic approaches are also possible to the time/cost tradeoff problem. In particular, a
simple approach is to first apply critical path scheduling with all activity durations
assumed to be at minimum cost (Dij). Next, the planner can examine activities on the
critical path and reduce the scheduled duration of activities which have the lowest
resulting increase in costs. In essence, the planner develops a list of activities on the
critical path ranked in accordance with the unit change in cost for a reduction in the
activity duration. The heuristic solution proceeds by shortening activities in the order of
their lowest impact on costs. As the duration of activities on the shortest path are
shortened, the project duration is also reduced. Eventually, another path becomes critical,
and a new list of activities on the critical path must be prepared. By manual or automatic
adjustments of this kind, good but not necessarily optimal schedules can be identified.
Optimal or best schedules can only be assured by examining changes in combinations of
activities as well as changes to single activities. However, by alternating between
adjustments in particular activity durations (and their costs) and a critical path scheduling
procedure, a planner can fairly rapidly devise a shorter schedule to meet a particular
project deadline or, in the worst case, find that the deadline is impossible of
accomplishment.

This type of heuristic approach to time-cost tradeoffs is essential when the time-cost
tradeoffs for each activity are not known in advance or in the case of resource constraints
on the project. In these cases, heuristic explorations may be useful to determine if greater
effort should be spent on estimating time-cost tradeoffs or if additional resources should
be retained for the project. In many cases, the basic time/cost tradeoff might not be a
smooth curve as shown in Figure 11-4, but only a series of particular resource and
schedule combinations which produce particular durations. For example, a planner might
have the option of assigning either one or two crews to a particular activity; in this case,
there are only two possible durations of interest.

Example 11-4: Time/Cost Trade-offs

The construction of a permanent transitway on an expressway median illustrates the

possibilities for time/cost trade-offs in construction work. [8] One section of 10 miles of
transitway was built in 1985 and 1986 to replace an existing contra-flow lane system (in
which one lane in the expressway was reversed each day to provide additional capacity in
the peak flow direction). Three engineers' estimates for work time were prepared:
 975 calendar day, based on 750 working days at 5 days/week and 8 hours/day of
work plus 30 days for bad weather, weekends and holidays.
 702 calendar days, based on 540 working days at 6 days/week and 10 hours/day
of work.
 360 calendar days, based on 7 days/week and 24 hours/day of work.
The savings from early completion due to operating savings in the contra-flow lane and
contract administration costs were estimated to be $5,000 per day.

In accepting bids for this construction work, the owner required both a dollar amount and
a completion date. The bidder's completion date was required to fall between 360 and 540
days. In evaluating contract bids, a $5,000 credit was allowed for each day less than 540
days that a bidder specified for completion. In the end, the successful bidder completed
the project in 270 days, receiving a bonus of 5,000*(540-270) = $450,000 in the
$8,200,000 contract. However, the contractor experienced fifteen to thirty percent higher
costs to maintain the continuous work schedule.

Example 11-5: Time cost trade-offs and project crashing

As an example of time/cost trade-offs and project crashing, suppose that we needed to

reduce the project completion time for a seven activity product delivery project first
analyzed in Section 10.3 as shown in Table 10-4 and Figure 10-7. Table 11-4 gives
information pertaining to possible reductions in time which might be accomplished for
the various activities. Using the minimum cost durations (as shown in column 2 of Table
11-4), the critical path includes activities C,E,F,G plus a dummy activity X. The project
duration is 32 days in this case, and the project cost is $70,000.
TABLE 11-4  Activity Durations and Costs for a Seven Activity Project
Change in
Activity Minimum Cost Normal Duration Crash Cost Crash Duration Cost per Day
A 8 6 14 4 3
B 4 1 4 1 ---
C 8 8 24 4 4
D 10 5 24 3 7
E 10 9 18 5 2
F 20 12 36 6 2.7
G 10 3 18 2 8

Examining the unit change in cost, Rij shown in column 6 of Table 11-4, the lowest rate
of change occurs for activity E. Accordingly, a good heuristic strategy might be to begin
by crashing this activity. The result is that the duration of activity E goes from 9 days to 5
days and the total project cost increases by $8,000. After making this change, the project
duration drops to 28 days and two critical paths exist: (1) activities C,X,E,F and G, and
(2) activities C, D, F, and G.

Examining the unit changes in cost again, activity F has the lowest value of R ijj. Crashing
this activity results in an additional time savings of 6 days in the project duration, an
increase in project cost of $16,000, but no change in the critical paths. The activity on the
critical path with the next lowest unit change in cost is activity C. Crashing this activity
to its minimum completion time would reduce its duration by 4 days at a cost increase of
$16,000. However, this reduction does not result in a reduction in the duration of the
project by 4 days. After activity C is reduced to 7 days, then the alternate sequence of
activities A and B lie on the critical path and further reductions in the duration of activity
C alone do not result in project time savings. Accordingly, our heuristic corrections might
be limited to reducing activity C by only 1 day, thereby increasing costs by $4,000 and
reducing the project duration by 1 day.

At this point, our choices for reducing the project duration are fairly limited. We can
either reduce the duration of activity G or, alternatively, reduce activity C and either
activity A or activity B by an identical amount. Inspection of Table 11-4 and Figure 10-4
suggest that reducing activity A and activity C is the best alternative. Accordingly, we
can shorten activity A to its crash duration (from 6 days to 4 days) and shorten the
duration of activity C (from 7 days to 5 days) at an additional cost of $6,000 + $8,000 =
$14,000. The result is a reduction in the project duration of 2 days.

Our last option for reducing the project duration is to crash activity G from 3 days to 2
days at an increase in cost of $8,000. No further reductions are possible in this time since
each activity along a critical path (comprised of activities A, B, E, F and G) are at
minimum durations. At this point, the project duration is 18 days and the project cost is
$120,000., representing a fifty percent reduction in project duration and a seventy percent
increase in cost. Note that not all the activities have been crashed. Activity C has been
reduced in duration to 5 days (rather than its 4 day crash duration), while activity D has
not been changed at all. If all activities had been crashed, the total project cost would
have been $138,000, representing a useless expenditure of $18,000. The change in project
cost with different project durations is shown graphically in Figure 11-5.
Figure 11-5  Project Cost Versus Time for a Seven Activity Project

Example 11-8: Mathematical Formulation of Time-Cost Trade-offs

The same results obtained in the previous example could be obtained using a formal
optimization program and the data appearing in Tables 10-4 and 11-4. In this case, the
heuristic approach used above has obtained the optimal solution at each stage. Using Eq.
(11.15), the linear programming problem formulation would be:

Minimize   z

= [8+3(6-dA)] + [4] + [8+4(8-dC)] + [10+7(5-dD)]

+ [10+2(9-dE)] + [20+2.7(9-dF)] + [10+2(3-dG)]
subject to the constraints
x(6) = PD x(0) + dA x(2)
x(0) + dC x(1)
x(1) x(3)
x(2) + dB x(4)
x(1) + dD x(4)
x(2) + dE x(4)
x(4) + dF x(5)
x(5) + dG x(6)
x(0) = 0
4 dA 6
1 dB 1
4 dC 8
3 dD 5
5 dE 9
6 dF 12
2 dG 3

which can be solved for different values of project duration PD using a linear
programming algorithm or a network flow algorithm. Note that even with only seven
activities, the resulting linear programming problem is fairly large.

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11.5 Scheduling in Poorly Structured Problems

The previous discussion of activity scheduling suggested that the general structure of the
construction plan was known in advance. With previously defined activities, relationships
among activities, and required resources, the scheduling problem could be represented as
a mathematical optimization problem. Even in the case in which durations are uncertain,
we assumed that the underlying probability distribution of durations is known and applied
analytical techniques to investigate schedules.

While these various scheduling techniques have been exceedingly useful, they do not
cover the range of scheduling problems encountered in practice. In particular, there are
many cases in which costs and durations depend upon other activities due to congestion
on the site. In contrast, the scheduling techniques discussed previously assume that
durations of activities are generally independent of each other. A second problem stems
from the complexity of construction technologies. In the course of resource allocations,
numerous additional constraints or objectives may exist that are difficult to represent
analytically. For example, different workers may have specialized in one type of activity
or another. With greater experience, the work efficiency for particular crews may
substantially increase. Unfortunately, representing such effects in the scheduling process
can be very difficult. Another case of complexity occurs when activity durations and
schedules are negotiated among the different parties in a project so there is no single
overall planner.

A practical approach to these types of concerns is to insure that all schedules are
reviewed and modified by experienced project managers before implementation. This
manual review permits the incorporation of global constraints or consideration of
peculiarities of workers and equipment. Indeed, interactive schedule revision to
accomadate resource constraints is often superior to any computer based heuristic. With
improved graphic representations and information availability, man-machine interaction
is likely to improve as a scheduling procedure.

More generally, the solution procedures for scheduling in these more complicated
situations cannot be reduced to mathematical algorithms. The best solution approach is
likely to be a "generate-and-test" cycle for alternative plans and schedules. In this
process, a possible schedule is hypothesized or generated. This schedule is tested for
feasibility with respect to relevant constraints (such as available resources or time
horizons) and desireability with respect to different objectives. Ideally, the process of
evaluating an alternative will suggest directions for improvements or identify particular
trouble spots. These results are then used in the generation of a new test alternative. This
process continues until a satisfactory plan is obtained.

Two important problems must be borne in mind in applying a "generate-and-test"

strategy. First, the number of possible plans and schedules is enormous, so considerable
insight to the problem must be used in generating reasonable alternatives. Secondly,
evaluating alternatives also may involve considerable effort and judgment. As a result,
the number of actual cycles of alternative testing that can be accomadated is limited. One
hope for computer technology in this regard is that the burdensome calculations
associated with this type of planning may be assumed by the computer, thereby reducing
the cost and required time for the planning effort. Some mechanisms along these lines are
described in Chapter 15.
Example 11-9: Man-machine Interactive Scheduling

An interactive system for scheduling with resource constraints might have the following
characteristics: [9]
 graphic displays of bar charts, resource use over time, activity networks and other
graphic images available in different windows of a screen simultaneously,
 descriptions of particular activities including allocated resources and chosen
technologies available in windows as desired by a user,
 a three dimensional animation of the construction process that can be stopped to
show the progress of construction on the facility at any time,
 easy-to-use methods for changing start times and allocated resources, and
 utilities to run relevant scheduling algorithms such as the critical path method at
any time.

Figure 11-6 shows an example of a screen for this system. In Figure 11-6, a bar chart
appears in one window, a description of an activity in another window, and a graph of the
use of a particular resource over time appears in a third window. These different
"windows" appear as sections on a computer screen displaying different types of
information. With these capabilities, a project manager can call up different pictures of
the construction plan and make changes to accomadate objectives or constraints that are
not formally represented. With rapid response to such changes, the effects can be
immediately evaluated.
Figure 11-6  Example of a Bar Chart and Other Windows for Interactive Scheduling

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11.6 Improving the Scheduling Process

Despite considerable attention by researchers and practitioners, the process of
construction planning and scheduling still presents problems and opportunities for
improvement. The importance of scheduling in insuring the effective coordination of
work and the attainment of project deadlines is indisputable. For large projects with many
parties involved, the use of formal schedules is indispensable.
The network model for representing project activities has been provided as an important
conceptual and computational framework for planning and scheduling. Networks not
only communicate the basic precedence relationships between activities, they also form
the basis for most scheduling computations.

As a practical matter, most project scheduling is performed with the critical path
scheduling method, supplemented by heuristic procedures used in project crash analysis
or resource constrained scheduling. Many commercial software programs are available to
perform these tasks. Probabilistic scheduling or the use of optimization software to
perform time/cost trade-offs is rather more infrequently applied, but there are software
programs available to perform these tasks if desired.

Rather than concentrating upon more elaborate solution algorithms, the most important
innovations in construction scheduling are likely to appear in the areas of data storage,
ease of use, data representation, communication and diagnostic or interpretation aids.
Integration of scheduling information with accounting and design information through
the means of database systems is one beneficial innovation; many scheduling systems do
not provide such integration of information. The techniques discussed in Chapter 14 are
particularly useful in this regard.

With regard to ease of use, the introduction of interactive scheduling systems, graphical
output devices and automated data acquisition should produce a very different
environment than has existed. In the past, scheduling was performed as a batch operation
with output contained in lengthy tables of numbers. Updating of work progress and
revising activity duration was a time consuming manual task. It is no surprise that
managers viewed scheduling as extremely burdensome in this environment. The lower
costs associated with computer systems as well as improved software make "user
friendly" environments a real possibility for field operations on large projects.

Finally, information representation is an area which can result in substantial

improvements. While the network model of project activities is an extremely useful
device to represent a project, many aspects of project plans and activity inter-
relationships cannot or have not been represented in network models. For example, the
similarity of processes among different activities is usually unrecorded in the formal
project representation. As a result, updating a project network in response to new
information about a process such as concrete pours can be tedious. What is needed is a
much more flexible and complete representation of project information. Some avenues
for change along these lines are discussed in Chapter 15.

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11.7 References
1. Bratley, Paul, Bennett L. Fox and Linus E. Schrage, A Guide to Simulation,
Springer-Verlag, 1973.
 2. Elmaghraby, S.E., Activity Networks: Project Planning and Control by Network
Models, John Wiley, New York, 1977.
3. Jackson, M.J., Computers in Construction Planning and Control, Allen & Unwin,
London, 1986.
4. Moder, J., C. Phillips and E. Davis, Project Management with CPM, PERT and
Precedence Diagramming, Third Edition, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,
1983.

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11.8 Problems
1. For the project defined in Problem 1 from Chapter 10, suppose that the early,
most likely and late time schedules are desired. Assume that the activity durations
are approximately normally distributed with means as given in Table 10-16 and
the following standard deviations: A: 4; B: 10; C: 1; D: 15; E: 6; F: 12; G: 9; H: 2;
I: 4; J: 5; K: 1; L: 12; M: 2; N: 1; O: 5. (a) Find the early, most likely and late
time schedules, and (b) estimate the probability that the project requires 25%
more time than the expected duration.

2. For the project defined in Problem 2 from Chapter 10, suppose that the early,
most likely and late time schedules are desired. Assume that the activity durations
are approximately normally distributed with means as given in Table 10-17 and
the following standard deviations: A: 2, B: 2, C: 1, D: 0, E: 0, F: 2; G: 0, H: 0, I:
0, J: 3; K: 0, L: 3; M: 2; N: 1. (a) Find the early, most likely and late time
schedules, and (b) estimate the probability that the project requires 25% more
time than the expected duration.

3 to 6
The time-cost tradeoff data corresponding to each of the Problems 1 to 4 (in
Chapter 10), respectively are given in the table for the problem (Tables 11-5 to
11-8). Determine the all-crash and the project crash durations and cost based on
the early time schedule for the project. Also, suggest a combination of activity
durations which will lead to a project completion time equal to three days longer
than the project crash time but would result in the (approximately) maximum
savings.
TABLE 11-5 
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
Shortest
Possible
Completio
n Time 3 5 1 10 4 6 6 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 5
Normal 150 250 80 400 220 300 260 120 200 180 220 500 100 120 500
Completio
n
Time Cost
Change in
Cost Per
Day
Earlier
Completio Infinit Infinit Infinit
n 20 30 y 15 20 25 10 35 20 y 25 15 30 y 10
TABLE 11-6 
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L M N
Shortest
Possible
Completion
Time 2 4 1 3 3 5 2 1 2 6 1 4 3 2
Normal
Completion
Time Cost 400 450 200 300 350 550 250 180 150 480 120 500 280 220
Crash
Completion
Time Cost 460 510 250 350 430 640 300 250 150 520 150 560 320 260
TABLE 11-7 
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L
Shortest Possible
Completion Time 4 8 11 4 1 9 6 2 3 2 7 3
Normal Completion
Time Cost 70 150 200 60 40 120 100 50 70 60 120 70
Crash Completion
Time Cost 90 210 250 80 60 140 130 70 90 80 150 100
TABLE 11-8 
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L M
Shortest
Possible
Completion
Time 3 5 2 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 5 2 2
Normal
Completion
Time Cost 50 150 90 125 300 240 80 270 120 600 300 80 140
Change in
Cost Per
Day
Earlier
Completion Infinity 50 Infinity 40 30 20 15 30 Infinity 40 50 40 40
7 to 10
Develop a project completion time versus cost tradeoff curve for the projects in
Problems 3 to 6. (Note: a linear programming computer program or more
specialized programs can reduce the calculating work involved in these
problems!)

11. Suppose that the project described in Problem 5 from Chapter 10 proceeds
normally on an earliest time schedule with all activities scheduled for their normal
completion time. However, suppose that activity G requires 20 days rather than
the expected 5. What might a project manager do to insure completion of the
project by the originally planned completion time?

12. For the project defined in Problem 1 from Chapter 10, suppose that a Monte Carlo
simulation with ten repetitions is desired. Suppose further that the activity
durations have a triangular distribution with the following lower and upper
bounds: A:4,8; B:4,9, C: 0.5,2; D: 10,20; E: 4,7; F: 7,10; G: 8, 12; H: 2,4; I: 4,7;
J: 2,4; K: 2,6; L: 10, 15; M: 2,9; N: 1,4; O: 4,11.
(a) Calculate the value of m for each activity given the upper and lower bounds
and the expected duration shown in Table 10-16.
(b) Generate a set of realizations for each activity and calculate the resulting
project duration.
(c) Repeat part (b) five times and estimate the mean and standard deviation of the
project duration.
13. Suppose that two variables both have triangular distributions and are correlated.
The resulting multi-variable probability density function has a triangular shape.
Develop the formula for the conditional distribution of one variable given the
corresponding realization of the other variable.

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11.9 Footnotes
1. See D. G. Malcolm, J.H. Rosenbloom, C.E. Clark, and W. Fazar, "Applications of a
Technique for R and D Program Evaluation," Operations Research, Vol. 7, No. 5, 1959,
pp. 646-669. Back

2. See M.W. Sasieni, "A Note on PERT Times," Management Science, Vol. 32, No. 12, p
1986, p. 1652-1653, and T.K. Littlefield and P.H. Randolph, "An Answer to Sasieni's
Question on Pert Times," Management Science, Vol. 33, No. 10, 1987, pp. 1357-1359.
For a general discussion of the Beta distribution, see N.L. Johnson and S. Kotz,
Continuous Univariate Distributions-2, John Wiley & Sons, 1970, Chapter 24. Back

3. See T. Au, R.M. Shane, and L.A. Hoel, Fundamentals of Systems Engineering -
Probabilistic Models, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1972. Back
4. See N.L. Johnson and S. Kotz, Distributions in Statistics: Continuous Multivariate
Distributions, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1973. Back

5. See, for example, P. Bratley, B. L. Fox and L.E. Schrage, A Guide to Simulation,
Springer-Verlag, New York, 1983. Back

6. There are exceptions to this rule, though. More workers may also mean additional
training burdens and more problems of communication and management. Some activities
cannot be easily broken into tasks for numerous individuals; some aspects of computer
programming provide notable examples. Indeed, software programming can be so
perverse that examples exist of additional workers resulting in slower project completion.
See F.P. Brooks, jr. , The Mythical Man-Month, Addison Wesley, Reading, MA 1975.
Back

7. For a discussion of solution procedures and analogies of the general function time/cost
tradeoff problem, see C. Hendrickson and B.N. Janson, "A Common Network Flow
Formulation for Several Civil Engineering Problems," Civil Engineering Systems, Vol. 1,
No. 4, 1984, pp. 195-203. Back

8. This example was abstracted from work performed in Houston and reported in U.
Officer, "Using Accelerated Contracts with Incentive Provisions for Transitway
Construction in Houston," Paper Presented at the January 1986 Transportation Research
Board Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. Back

9. This description is based on an interactive scheduling system developed at Carnegie

Mellon University and described in C. Hendrickson, C. Zozaya-Gorostiza, D. Rehak, E.
Baracco-Miller and P. Lim, "An Expert System for Construction Planning," ASCE
Journal of Computing, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1987, pp. 253-269. Back