The Changing World of Work: January 2009
The Changing World of Work: January 2009
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Chapter prepared for Linley, A. , Harrington, S., & Page, N. (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of
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The Changing World of Work
The world of work is as dynamic as ever, with dramatic changes underway that will
affect employees, managers, and consumers for years to come. Whether publicly traded
or privately held, large or small, domestic or global, the world of work is changing
dramatically, and in this chapter we will explore several of the most obvious ways in
representative of some important changes that are occurring all over the globe. We will
begin by examining briefly how the nature of change has changed. Then we will consider
the impact of technology and e-commerce, and how those affect the global dispersion of
including demographic changes in the United States and elsewhere, and the effects of
new jobs that are being created, and the implications for career management.
Hamel (2000) pointed out that we have entered a new age – the age of revolutions in
business concepts. The age of incremental progress, little by little, in tiny steps, a little
cheaper, a little better, a little faster, is over. Today, the nature of change has changed.
No longer is it additive. No longer does it move in a straight line. In the 21st century,
To a large extent, this is so because the Internet has rendered geography meaningless.
Global capital flows have become a raging torrent. The cost of storing a megabyte of
data has dropped from hundreds of dollars to essentially nothing. In this new age, a
company that is evolving slowly is already on its way to extinction. In the age of
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incremental progress, industrial giants like DuPont, Mitsubishi, DaimlerChrysler, and
resource planning. Decade after decade they focused single-mindedly on getting better.
If they happened to miss something that was changing in the environment, there was
In the 20th century, the advantages of being the incumbent – global distribution,
respected brands, a deep pool of talent, steady cash flows – granted them the luxury of
time. Thus, although Apple Computer got an early start in the micro-computer business,
IBM quickly reversed Apple’s lead when it threw its worldwide distribution might behind
the PC. But in a world of discontinuous change, a company that misses a critical
Between 1994 and 2001 the number of mobile phones sold each year exploded,
from 26 million to more than 400 million. At the same time, the technology changed
from analog to digital. Motorola, the world leader in the mobile-telephone business until
1997, missed the shift to digital wireless technology by just a year or two. In that sliver
of time, Nokia, a hitherto unknown company perched on the edge of the Arctic Circle,
became the world’s new number one. A decade earlier Nokia had been making snow
tires and rubber boots. Suddenly, it was one of Europe’s fastest-growing high-tech
companies. As of late 2007, Nokia’s worldwide market share in mobile phones was 39
percent (Nokia, 2007), and its stock price had nearly doubled since beginning of the year
network and other communications equipment (Fortune, 2007). Its stock price fell 21
3
percent over the same period (Silver, 2007). The lesson is clear: in today’s fast-moving
Here is further evidence. In one Gallup poll, 500 CEOs were asked, “Who took
better advantage of change in your industry over the past 10 years – newcomers,
traditional competitors, or your own company? The #1 answer was newcomers. Then
they were asked whether the newcomers had won by changing the rules of the game or by
executing better. Fully 62% of the CEOs said the newcomers had won by changing the
With all of this breathless talk of the speed of change, it is easy to become
convinced that organizations are competing in some kind of “brave new world.” To put
change and instability in the ‘current’ environment have been a common and recurring
refrain in the management literature, at least since the 1930s (Daffern, 1960; LaPierre,
1958; Margulies & Wallace, 1973). In fact, a large-scale, 20-year analysis of business
markets are, in general, any more unstable now than they were in the recent past. What
managers face today in terms of hyper-competition is largely the same as it ever was.
Evidence indicates that stable factors at industry, corporate, and business-unit levels, as
Many factors are driving change, but none is more important than the rise of Internet
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technologies (Friedman, 2005). The Internet, as it continues to develop, has certainly
changed the ways that people live and work. Indeed, in some industries, such as music
and e-commerce, it has completely revolutionized the rules of the game, but the Internet
and e-commerce are not ubiquitous, as many might assume. To appreciate this, consider
that it certainly simplifies things if one assumes that the world is flat, and that work can
be done anytime, anywhere, via the Internet. Yet even a brief examination of the
nighttime electricity grid, as displayed on Google Earth, shows vast areas of darkness in
different parts of the world. Although it might be more correct to speak of the world as
“spiky,” at least in terms of the availability of electricity and access to the Internet, it is
more convenient to refer to the entire world as “flat,” to assume that people everywhere
have Internet access, and that global collaboration in work is seamless (Cascio, 2007a).
At the same time, mass collaboration through file-sharing, blogs, and social
networking services, is making leaps in creativity possible, and it is changing the way
companies in a variety of industries do business (Hof, 2005). Here are some examples.
• Research and development. Procter & Gamble makes use of outside scientific
from 20 percent three years ago. That has helped boost sales per R&D person by
40 percent.
computer-processing power and bandwidth, allowing them to call each other for
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free over the Internet. That has cut revenues sharply at traditional telecom
providers.
The Net gives everyone in the organization, at any level and in every functional
anywhere. Instead of seeping out over months or years, ideas can be zapped around the
globe in the blink of an eye. By 2009, one quarter of the world’s workforce, or 850
million people, will use remote access and mobile technology to work on the go or at
home, according to research firm IDC (Schweyer, 2006). That means that the 21st-
century organization must adapt itself to management via the Web. It must be predicated
on constant change, not stability; organized around networks, not rigid hierarchies; built
the 21st century organization is far more likely to look like a web: a flat, intricately-
woven form that links partners, employees, external contractors, suppliers, and customers
in various collaborations. The players will grow more and more interdependent, and
Dreamliner 787 aircraft, scheduled for delivery in 2009 (Lunsford, 2007). To lower the
$10 billion or so that it would costs to develop the plane by itself, Boeing authorized a
team of parts suppliers to design and build major sections of the craft, which it planned to
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assemble at a Seattle-area factory. Unfortunately, outsourcing so much responsibility
The supplier problems ranged from language barriers to problems that developed
when some contractors themselves outsourced chunks of the work. For their part, some
suppliers complained that the company was 3-8 months late in giving them final
specifications for structures and systems. The lesson? Program managers thought they
had adequate oversight of suppliers, but learned later that there were many details that
they knew nothing about. They needed insight into what was actually going on in
suppliers’ factories so they could help suppliers deal with the challenges they faced. This
underscores a key finding from a global outsourcing study (Miller, 2007), namely, that
clear: intellectual capital will be critical to business success. The advantage of bringing
breakthrough products to market first will be shorter than ever because technology will
let competitors match or exceed them almost instantly. To keep ahead of the steep new-
product curve, it will be crucial for businesses to attract and retain the best thinkers.
Companies will need to build a deep reservoir of talent – including both employees and
free agents – to succeed in this new era. More than ever, 21st-century organizations are
global, and an emerging new demography is helping to shape them for years to come.
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In the U.S., the number as well as the mix of people available to work is changing
rapidly. According to the Bureau of the Census, there will be a precipitous drop in the
growth of the labor force among prime-age employees between 2000 and 2020,
55-64 will increase by 52 percent, while those age 65+ will increase by 30 percent.
Similar trends are underway in almost all developed countries (Dychtwald, Erickson, &
Morison, 2006).
To appreciate what this means for specific sectors of the U. S. economy, consider
next 5 years
♦ Half the U. S. government’s civilian workforce also will be eligible to retire in the
next 5 years
years
At the same time, Generations X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Y (born after
1980), with approximately 50 and 80 million members, respectively, in the U. S., are
large and growing segments of the labor force that pose both challenges and opportunities
(Cascio, 2007b; Guest & Sturges, 2007). Differences among racial and ethnic groups
among generations in the United States are becoming more pronounced. In fact, the
younger the age cohort, the more racially and ethnically diverse it tends to be
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(Generational differences, 2007). We will have more to say about generational
Over the next four decades, non-Hispanic whites will be a slim majority of the U.
S. population. To appreciate what this means, consider that in 2005 Hispanics represented
continue, Hispanics in 2050 will represent 32 percent of the nation’s population, and 55
Currently, female participation has jumped to 60% from 50% two decades ago,
and much of that is in professional jobs. This is not surprising, considering that the
number of females per 100 new M.B.A. graduates has skyrocketed from 4 in 1972 to 42
in 2004 (“Women have prospered,” 2007). At the same time, the long-term trend toward
earlier retirement has recently been reversed. The average retirement age is now 64, 75
percent of retirees want to launch new careers after that, and 42 percent of those want to
In most developed countries around the world, we can expect fewer younger
workers, and more older workers (Carnell, 2000). Although a fertility rate of 2.1 children
per woman is needed just to replace current population, in Europe the fertility rate has
dropped to 1.42, and in Japan to 1.43. Spain has the world’s lowest fertility rate, at 1.15
(National Center for Policy Analysis, 2006). In the U. S., the Census Bureau predicts that
the number of workers aged 20-44 will increase by 0.4 percent between 2000 and 2010,
and by 4 percent between 2010 and 2020 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004).
Of course the flip side of low fertility is an aging population. China has the
fastest-aging population in the world, largely due to its policy of one child per family. To
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appreciate this, consider that 35 years ago in China the population proportion of children
to the aged (65 and older) was 6:1. Today the elderly population is twice as great as the
number of children. In Thailand, the elderly will account for 14 percent of the population
within 20 years, while children will only represent 12 percent (People’s Daily Online,
2004). Among broad regions of the world, Europe has the highest proportion of the
population age 65 and older, and it should remain the global leader in this category well
into the 21st century. However, the most rapid acceleration in aging, especially in the
United States, will occur after 2010, when the large, post-World-War-II baby-boom
cohort begins to reach age 65 (Population Matters, 2006). These trends may not lead to
labor shortages (Cappelli, 2005), but they will likely lead to shorter employment
arrangements.
Are organizations preparing now for the looming retirements of the members of
the baby-boom generation? Several sources indicate that the answer is, in general, no. In
one such study of 526 senior-level executives in global as well as domestic firms, among
firms of all sizes, three out of four executives said that “succession planning” was their
most significant challenge for the future. Additionally, approximately seven out of ten
said the next most pressing problems were “providing leaders with the skills they need to
be successful” (71 percent) and “recruiting and selecting talented employees” (69
percent). These survey findings also corresponded to the results of in-depth interviews
that were conducted with 36 additional top executives (Society for Human Resource
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In a second study of senior executives on the topic of the impending retirements
of the baby-boom generation, 45 percent said that their employers were beginning to
examine internal policies and management practices, 36 percent were “just becoming
aware of the issue, while only 9 percent had proposed specific policy and management-
practice changes, and only 8 percent had implemented such practices (Cadrain, 2007).
With respect to succession planning per se, one large-scale study of 2,406
organizations revealed that only 29 percent of them have a succession plan in place,
another 29 percent have an informal plan in place, 26 percent have no plan, but intend to
develop one in the near future, and 16 percent have no plan and no intention of
States, consider the following data from the U.S. Department of Labor. In 2002 the
aggregate demand for labor in the United States was 141.8 million people. The aggregate
supply was 143.5 million. By 2031 that picture will change dramatically, if present trends
continue. The aggregate demand for labor will be 200.2 million people, while the supply
of labor available will be only 165 million people. One way that firms are coping with
potential labor shortages in their home countries is to seek labor elsewhere through
outsourcing. As the next section shows, however, in some skilled occupations, supply-
An Impending Problem: Global Demand Exceeds the Supply of People with Needed
Skills
India is typical. For example, some 1.3 million people applied for work at Infosys
Technologies Ltd. in 2006, but the company says that only 2 percent of them were
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employable (Coy & Ewing, 2007). The big problems include inadequate foreign-
language proficiency, lack of practical skills, unwillingness to move for a job, and limited
& Range, 2007). The seemingly inexhaustible pools of cheap labor from China, India,
and elsewhere are drying up as demand outstrips the supply of people with the needed
Inc. found that 41 percent of them are having trouble hiring the people they need (Coy &
Ewing, 2007). As a result, the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that the supply of
suitable labor will be squeezed in Prague as early as 2007, that pockets of skills shortages
in India will appear by 2008 (e.g., in Hyderabad), and that workforce growth will decline
most of the global labor pool, wherever it exists. For both developed- and developing-
nation multinationals that often implies a corporate strategy of labor arbitrage - periodic
moves to lower-wage locations as existing ones get too pricey. As wages rise in first-tier
offshore cities like Bangalore, Shanghai, and Prague (6 to 15 percent in 2006), United
States, European, and Asian multinationals alike are moving to places like Jaipur, India;
Chengdu, China; and Kiev, Ukraine. Ho Chi Minh City is becoming the new Manila
(Hookway, 2007). For example, in response to cost pressures, Intel will open a new $300
million semi-conductor plant that employs 1,200 workers in Ho Chi Minh City instead of
expanding existing capacity in China, the Philippines, and Malaysia. (Hansen, 2006).
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Many of the most pressing human-capital challenges identified in the SHRM
the impact of demographic changes that are already underway. In that study, the four
engaging and retaining talented employees; and 4) providing leaders with skills to be
successful. In general, senior executives did not feel confident that their companies have
The essence of the demographic predictions is that there will be lots of people
coming and going. With respect to those going, namely, the aging baby-boomer
generation (born 1946-1964), that generation represents 37 percent of the workforce and
most of senior corporate leadership (Washburn, 2007). Many of those individuals will be
gone in the next decade, although many may choose to continue working past “normal”
knowledge and individual expertise – has great potential to address this problem.
valuable, organizations must not ignore how to capture, catalogue, and retain other, more
tacit knowledge (e.g., judgment, decision making, and “how work really gets done”)
when employees leave (Davidson, Lepeak, & Newman, 2007). Evidence from 2,046
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organizations that responded to a recent survey indicates, unfortunately, that only 4
percent of them have a formal process of transferring knowledge from retiring boomers
to other employees. Slightly less than a quarter of them have an informal process, but 44
percent do not have a process and have no plans to develop one (Gurchiek, 2007).
younger managers for this specific purpose. That process should begin with a clear
employees, not a reactive approach to monitoring the workforce (Davidson et al., 2007).
One useful place to begin is by examining the retirement eligibility of current workers,
coupled with an analysis of the time and costs required to fill a vacant position (Cascio &
Boudreau, 2008). This type of information can prove particularly useful in guiding
In Europe, Finland will be the first country to experience the rapid retirements of
baby boomers, beginning in 2010. The exodus has dire implications for the supply of
workers available for hire, and for the financing of the country’s generous pension and
health systems (Anderson, 2007). Finland faces Europe’s demographic challenge first
because its baby-boom generation was comparatively large, and it came immediately
Between 2005 and 2020 fully 40 percent of the baby boomers are set to leave the
2030, the size of the population over 65 will increase by 70 percent, while the working-
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age population will fall by 10 percent. According to the Organization for Economic
cooperation and Development (OECD), these changes mean that the number of employed
workers to each welfare-benefit recipient will drop from 1.7 in 2007 to 1.0 by 2030.
Shortages of skilled workers are appearing already. To counter these trends, the
Finland, (2) encouraging older workers to keep working, and (3) pushing students to
finish their studies earlier. Finally, to encourage the unemployed to seek jobs, the
government is offering opportunities for retraining and subsidized moving expenses, and
Finding and Keeping Older Workers: The Response of Some U.S. Companies
In the U. S., progressive companies are taking steps now to recruit and retain workers
over 50. In recruitment, Home Depot and the CVS drugstore chain offer programs to
bring retirees back to the workforce. Both companies feature pictures of older workers on
their websites and have made their hiring and screening practices age-neutral. In terms of
which employees can move into retirement gradually by reducing their work schedules
and pro-rating their salaries and benefits. Carondelet Health Network of Tucson, Arizona
has a seasonal-worker program, where older employees work under three-, six-, or none-
month contracts. Finally, in terms of improving the work environment, Baptist Health of
South Florida raised the height of its hospital beds in order to ease back strain on
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ergonomics program that reduced its workers’ compensation costs by 38 percent
(Cadrain, 2007).
Thus far we have been describing the baby-boom generation from an Anglophone
perspective. Unlike North American and European nations, however, where the biggest
leap in population growth occurred after World War II, many developing nations
experienced this leap in the late 1970s to early 1990s. As a result, the baby-boom
generation in many countries is actually several decades younger than that of the
Anglophone world, where the term emerged. The differences in timing of the baby
booms, and disparities in the sizes of different generations, have a major impact on two
key issues: immigration and the global competition for jobs (Generational differences,
2007).
Much of the increase in immigration - legal and illegal – is a result of the baby
boomers of the developing world reaching working age in countries where there are not
enough jobs for all of these new young workers to fill. Higher emigration rates from
developing countries may also be an opportunity, however, for those countries that are
demographic balance that has the ideal proportion of prime working-age people between
the ages of 25 and 54 (compared to children and retirees) as the “demographic sweet
spot.” India and the developing countries of East Asia, in particular, have been cited as
places that have benefited greatly from this “demographic dividend” (Generational
differences, 2007).
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Global competition for jobs. Among young workers entering the labor markets of
industrialized countries in North America and Europe, intense global competition with
other young workers around the world for the best jobs is now a fact of life. When the
members of Generations X (born from 1965 to 1980) and Y (born after 1980) were
growing up, trends such as the large-scale entrance of women into the workforce, the
offshoring of white-collar jobs, and the decline of unions and the manufacturing sector
were already well under way. Today’s young workers, however, are the first to begin
their careers in a world where many white-collar, knowledge-based jobs that require a
consider a recent study by Princeton economist and former Vice-Chairman of the Federal
Reserve Alan Blinder (Wessel & Davis, 2007). He ranked 817 occupations described by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics in terms of how likely each is to go overseas. His
conclusion: 30-40 million jobs are vulnerable, not the 3-4 million that have been
proposed previously. While it is well known that manufacturing jobs have been
migrating to places like China and Eastern Europe, it is less widely recognized that many
service jobs also are vulnerable. A key distinction is services that must be done in U. S.
versus those that can – or will – be delivered electronically. Figure 1 shows graphically
Jobs with characteristics like the following are most likely to be targeted for offshoring
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♦ Internet-enabled work processes that can be accomplished via telework
As the need for highly educated workers has grown, firms have used advances in
employ skilled knowledge workers wherever they may be. This has created a highly
competitive environment where education, coupled with basic and applied skills, is
crucial to ensuring earning power. Basic knowledge comprises areas such as the
mathematics, science, economics, arts and humanities, foreign languages, history, and
geography. Applied skills include critical thinking and problem solving, teamwork and
differences, 2007).
At the same time that higher education is more critical than ever to sustained
earning power, the proportion of workers with high school diplomas and college degrees
in the United States could actually be set to decline. This scenario is possible because the
greatest increase in population growth in the United States is among the racial and ethnic
groups that have the lowest levels of education. In contrast, workers in the baby-boom
generation, many of whom are expected to retire in the next decade, are among the most
highly educated. To be sure, the nation still has the world’s highest proportion of
workers over the age of 40 with a college degree. With respect to the proportion of young
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people with college degrees, however, many emerging economies appear poised to
surpass the United States, and already have the balance of their educated population
tipped toward their youngest workers (Generational differences, 2007). At the very time,
therefore, when the members of Generations X and Y are facing growing competition for
jobs from young people in other countries, as a group they may be less equipped to deal
generations in unique ways, but research also reveals that younger and older generations
actually share many values in common. Thus a 7-year study of more than 3,000
corporate leaders by the Center for Creative Leadership found that employees of all ages
want similar things from their work and they share common values about what matters
most – family, respect, and trust (Deal, 2006). Everyone wants to be able to trust his or
her supervisor, few people actually relish change, we all like feedback, and rewards that
Unfortunately there is often a disconnect between what people want and what
different organizations found. Results indicated that few managers consistently provide
their direct reports with what Rainmaker calls the five management basics. These are:
clear statements of what’s expected of each employee, explicit and measurable goals and
deadlines, detailed evaluation of each person’s work, clear feedback, and rewards
distributed fairly. Only 10 percent of managers provided all five of the basics at least
once a week. Only 25 percent did so once a month. About a third failed to provide them
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even once a year (Tulgan, 2004)! Clearly there is much room for improvement in these
areas.
The Center for Creative Leadership study also suggests that many differences in
values and attitudes that people perceive across generations are actually the result of
different contexts. For example, the study found that resistance to change had much
more to do with what a person stood to gain or lose from the change than with his or her
age (Deal, 2006). In general, older workers have more to lose, but many younger workers
have identical anxieties. Other research has debunked similar myths. Here are three of
1. Members of Generations X and Y lack a strong work ethic. Fact: It’s more a
matter of work style. Members of the younger generations observed that work
was central to their parents’ identities. They saw them get downsized despite
their company loyalty, and watched them strain to juggle their careers and their
their lives at work and outside of work. That doesn’t mean they won’t get the job
done. If they have to, they will work from the beach on their laptops. In the
office, they focus, finish, and leave. The lesson is clear: look at the results, not the
process.
2. Members of Generations X and Y disrespect their elders. Fact: Rather than take
things on faith, 20- and 30-somethings want to know why they are being asked to
perform a task. This is not disrespect. They just have more options than baby
boomers did at their age. Baby boomers got ahead by doing what they were told,
and many of them expect younger workers to fall in line similarly. Yet if older
20
workers are clear in what they expect and explain the reasons behind a particular
workers for tech time (communicating online using e-mail or text messaging) as
isolationist. In fact, it is anything but that – if one knows how to use the tools.
Our final two sections examine topics that should be of major interest in the changing
world of work: the types of new jobs being created, and career-management strategies to
Study after study has shown that talent has become the world’s most sought-after
commodity, and the changing nature of work makes knowledge workers ever more
illustrate, consider three types of jobs identified by the McKinsey Global Institute:
goods
McKinsey argues that over the past six years the number of jobs that emphasize “tacit
interactions” has grown 2.5 times as fast as the number of transactional jobs, and 3 times
as fast as employment in general. These jobs now make up 40 percent of the U.S. labor
21
market and account for 70 percent of the jobs created since 1998. The same thing is
bound to happen in developing countries as they get richer (The Economist, 2006).
More specifically, consider the “best” jobs in the United States from 2005 through
2009, based on projected job growth (through 2012), salary potential, education level,
and room for innovation and creativity (Quinn, 2005). Here are 10 of the top 25:
computer-system analyst, and marketing manager. Note how virtually all of them are
tacit in nature. Before we get too carried away with this theme, however, consider that
after the expected wave of baby-boomer retirements over the next several years, experts
Career-Management Strategies
Although the primary and final responsibility for career development rests with each
responsible for communicating to employees where they want to go and how they plan to
get there (the overall strategy), providing employees with as much information about the
business as possible, and responding to the career initiatives of employees with candid,
complete information. One of the most important contributions an organization can make
feedback about current job performance. Employees, in turn, are responsible for
knowing what their skills and capabilities are and what assistance they need from their
employers, asking for that assistance, and preparing themselves to assume new
22
responsibilities - if that is what they want. If not, then employees are responsible for
does not mean free agency. Rather, each individual needs to become an “informed
employees the responsibility for managing their own careers, then provide the support
they need to do it. This support takes different forms in different organizations, but
career planning, training for supervisors on how to provide relevant information and to
question the logic of employees’ career plans, and lots of opportunities for training and
leadership development. Steps like these will enable employees to position themselves to
assume jobs that are critical to the success of their organizations. After all, the world of
that whether young or old, you can take maximum advantage of opportunities that present
themselves.
23
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Wessel, D., & Davis, B. (2007, March 28). Pain from free trade spurs second thoughts.
13, 2007.
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Figure 1
Computer
F inancial programmers,
analysts, 180,910 389,090
Microbiologists, Data entry
15,250 keyers, 296,700
Actuaries, 15,770
F ilm/video
editors, 15,200
Medical
transcription,
90,380
Source: Adapted from data presented by Blinder, A. in Wessel, D., & Davis, B. (2007,
Interpreters/transl
March 28). Pain from free trade spurs second thoughts. The Wallators,
Street Journal,
21,930
Source: Adapted from data presented by Blinder, A. in Wessel, D., & Davis, B. (2007,
March 28). Pain from free trade spurs second thoughts. The Wall Street Journal, p. A4.
29