existing stable and uniform data anu tvs 32.5. Fratar Method ; uced by T.J. Fratar (Ref. 1 yandis ee This method was introd 4 ] movements by suc essi on predicting future interzonal movers tions. i re ‘According to this method, the total trips for each Zone _as_a first approximation, distributed to the interzonal movements, activeness of each movement. Thus, the according to the relative attractive ofeach move". future trips estimated for any zone would be distributed to_the i i in proporti ing trips movements involving that zone in pro ortion to the existing fe rtion to the expected between it and each other zone and in propo} Ti growth of each other zone. This may be é&pressed mathematically as follows : k 1; pee a Lti-k (82-3) k Pine) [ a) ti-k ak where T;_j = Future trips from zone i to zonej Present trips from zone i to zonej ‘uture trips produced at zone t _ = Present trips attracted to zone f A;= Future trips attracted to zonej a; = Present trips attracted to zone j k =Total number of zones. When the future traffic into and out of all zones is similarly distributed, each interzonal trip has _been ass: Wi vi istributed, each Ly igned two tentative yalues—one the result istribution fo: involv sult of the distribution for one of the zones involved “| I.676 TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT PLANNING i i ne a ret Ay Sia those pairs of tentative values arg averaged. A new ‘growth factor’ for each zone is then calculated ang he distribution process is repeated. #2 The following simple example from Fratar’s original paper ig given here to illustrate the actual procedure. Q S D | A B t Tr-p=ta_px PA, AB, ___tapstacttan PA tan Ep +tac Ec +tapEp 80 14 40 10s |[22| [1 eae 10 (3) []* 10x3+12x15+18x1 =10x2%3x 40 ——_*___ 10 x 3+12 x 15418 x1 = 364. The computations are summarised below. Line 1 for each summary shows the existing trips for the indicated inter-zonal movement. Line 2shows for each zone the inter-zonal trips multiplied Tespectively by the growth factor of the other zone involved. ‘These products are summarised for each zone to provide a common denominator for the distribution of trips of that zone. This distribution is accomplished by dividing the total trips desired for the zone by the common denominator and multiplying the quotient by the products shown in the line 2. The new distribution shown in line 3, adds up to the total number of trips desired for the zone. ™TRIP DISTRIBUTION 677 rhe ae Approximation Je ee Sacwit, | ti of sumo anit se products 0 zone | A |B 1c | D| tripeand [Desired Wit ae ie; ee products | PA tos a Growth | 2 | 3 Factor a hereto For Zone A o) - | 10 | 12 | 18 (2) - | 30 | 18 | 18 66 80 13u (3) — |36-4 |21-8 | 21-8) 80 For Zone le B @ ma - 14 | 14 (2) 20 | - | 21 | 14 55 114 2-07 (3) [41-5] - [435] 29 14 For Zone c @ w2|14}- | 6 «@ |} 4az}- | & 2 48 0.667 @) 16 | 28 | - | 4 48 For Zone ‘fe D a) | as] 4] 6 | - (a. | 36 | 42] 9 | - 87 38 0.437 (3) 15-8} 18-3] 3-9 | — 38 of inter-zonal volumes obtained by these computa- The pairs 'd as shown below to obtain the first approximation tions are average for inter-zonal trips.678 ‘TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT PLANNING A-B A-C A-D B-C B-D c-D 36-4 218 21-8 43-5 29-0 3-9 415 16-0 15-8 28-0 18-3 40 Total 77-9 37:8 37-6 715 47:3 19 Average 39-0 18-9 18-8 35-7 23-6 4.0 The averages for the trips radiating from each zone are summarised below to determine the new growth factors : A B o D 39-0 39-0 189 18-8 oJ 378 35-7 85-7 23-6 12,% 37-6 23-6 40 4.0 New Totals 73 : 65 104-4 98-3 58-6 46-4 Desired Totals 800 1140 480 38.0 New Growth Factors ae ene nals 1-04 116 0-82 0-82 New Totals The process is then repeated to obtain a second approxi- mation on the same lines, but using new growth factors and new values of the inter zonal movement obtained from the first approxi- mation. The procedure is laborious except for simple problems, but can be conveniently tackled by a computer. It has the same drawbacks as other growth factor models and is unable to forecast trips for those areas which were predominantly under-developed during the base year. It does not take into account the effects of changes in accessi- ES ees ectinny of riudraes ee BWW aslae a