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Unit - 3 Types of Forecasting

This document discusses different types of forecasts used in hotel front office operations including 10 day forecasts, 3 day forecasts, weekly forecasts, and monthly forecasts. It also discusses factors for evaluating front office operations and useful forecasting data. Specifically, it provides examples of room availability forecasting ratios used to calculate percentages of no-shows, walk-ins, overstays, and understays. It also presents a room availability forecasting method and formula. Finally, it provides examples of 10 day and 3 day room availability forecast forms including forecasted occupancy figures, crew commitments, and comparisons to previous periods.

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Aravind Abimaniyu
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293 views9 pages

Unit - 3 Types of Forecasting

This document discusses different types of forecasts used in hotel front office operations including 10 day forecasts, 3 day forecasts, weekly forecasts, and monthly forecasts. It also discusses factors for evaluating front office operations and useful forecasting data. Specifically, it provides examples of room availability forecasting ratios used to calculate percentages of no-shows, walk-ins, overstays, and understays. It also presents a room availability forecasting method and formula. Finally, it provides examples of 10 day and 3 day room availability forecast forms including forecasted occupancy figures, crew commitments, and comparisons to previous periods.

Uploaded by

Aravind Abimaniyu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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UNIT :-3 TYPES OF FORECASTING

CONTENT

❏ 10 Day Forecast

❏ 3 Day Forecast

❏ Weekly Forecast

❏ Monthly Forecast

❏ Factors for evaluating front office operations

❏ Useful forecasting data


ROOM AVAILABILITY FORECASTING RATIOS

percent of No-suggests – This ratio helps the entrance place of business supervisor decide
when and if to sell rooms to stroll-in visitors. Percent of No-suggests = number of Room
No-shows / number of Room Reservations

percent of walk-Ins: percentage of walk-Ins = number of Room stroll-Ins /whole number of


Room Arrivals

percent of Overstays = quantity of Overstay Rooms /number of anticipated investigate-Outs

percent of Understays =quantity of Understay Rooms /quantity of anticipated verify-Outs

Room availability forecasting method – The quantity of rooms available for sale on any given
date can also be decided by way of the following formulation:

Total quantity of Guestrooms

– quantity of Out-of-Order Rooms

– number of Room Stayovers

– number of Room Reservations

+ quantity of Room Reservations x percent of No-shows

+ number of Room Understays

– number of Room Overstays

= number of Rooms available for sale

pattern Forecast forms

The entrance place of job may just put together a couple of forecasts relying on its desires.
Occupancy forecasts are commonly developed on a month-to-month basis and reviewed by
meals and beverage and rooms division administration to forecast revenues, project bills, and
improve labor schedules. Nevertheless the nearer the forecast is, the extra correct it is going to
be. Given under are a couple of pattern of forecast varieties:

1. Ten-Day room availability forecasting – The ten-day room availability forecasting at most
lodges is developed collectively by means of the front administrative center supervisor and the
reservations manager, almost certainly together with a forecast committee. A ten-day forecast
almost always includes :

2. Day-to-day forecasted occupancy figures, including room arrivals, room departures, rooms
bought, and number of friends.

3. The number of crew commitments, with a listing of each and every team’s title, arrival and
departure dates, number of rooms reserved, quantity of friends and probably quoted room
rates.

4. A comparison of the previous interval’s forecasted and actual room counts and occupancy
percentages.

The ten-day room availability forecasting must be completed and allotted to all department
offices to help plan their staffing for the upcoming period.

5. Three-Day room availability forecasting – a 3-day room availability forecasting is an updated


report that reflects an extra current estimate of room availability. It

details any tremendous alterations from the ten-day forecast. The three-day forecast is meant
to advisor management in quality tuning labor schedules and adjusting room availability
understanding.

STATICSTICS Statistics are facts expressed in terms of rupees,numbers,figures etc and is the
grouping of data in an orderly and usable manner.
Occupancy Ratio

1. Occupancy % = No. of rooms sold/occupied x100


No. of rooms available

2.Multiply occupancy /Double occupancy


=No. of rooms occupied by more
than 1 person x100
No. of rooms occupied
OR
(House –count -1 ) x100
No. of rooms occupied
2. Guest per room/average guest per room =House- count /no. of guests
No. of rooms sold
House –count=yesterday's H.C + Todays arrivals-Todays departure
3. Bed occupancy %age/ Guest occup. %age/sleeper occup. %age = No. of beds sold x 100
No. of beds available
4. Average Room rate (ARR)= Total room revenue
No. of rooms sold
5. Average room rate per guest= Total room revenue
No. of guest/H.C
5. Rev.PAR = Total room revenue
No.of rooms available
6. Yield %age = Actual room revenue x 100
Potential room revenue

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