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SensIt 161 Example

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Messy Cool
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© © All Rights Reserved
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
142 views17 pages

SensIt 161 Example

Uploaded by

Messy Cool
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Input Variables Input Cells BaseCase

FirstCost $120,000 $120,000


Salvage $20,000 $20,000
N 12 12
i 10% 10%
O&M $6,000 $6,000
Revenue $55,000 $55,000
NNoRev 1 1
FracComp 0.2 0.2
Intermediate Variables (Input Values for SensIt)
P/F,i,N $0.32
P/A,i,N $6.81
N-NNoRev 11 Example: How does Present Worth depend on N (project lifetime) ?
P/A,i,N-NNoRev $6.50
P/F,i,NNoRev $0.91 SensIt One-Input Plot: Control+Shift+P (Windows Excel) or Option+Command+P
Revenue Discount $5.90
Output Variable SensIt - One Input, One Output
Present Worth $105,293
Cells for Input Variable

The financial model for a new Label A4


product and the notation Value B4
shown here is based on an
example from:

Eschenbach, Ted G. 1992, Input Values


"Spiderplots versus Tornado
Diagrams for Sensitivity Start 6
Analysis," Interfaces, Vol. 22, Step 1
No. 6 (Nov.-Dec.), pp. 40-46. Stop 24
d on N (project lifetime) ?

indows Excel) or Option+Command+P (Mac Excel)

Cells for Output Variable

Label A18
Value B18
SensIt
One Input, One Output
SensIt
Date (current date) $200,000
Time (current time)
Workbook (file name) $180,000
Input Cell OneInput!$B$4
Output Cell OneInput!$B$18 $160,000

$140,000
N Present Worth
6 $16,789 $120,000
7 $35,263

Present Worth
8 $52,057 $100,000
9 $67,325
10 $81,204 $80,000
11 $93,822
$60,000
12 $105,293
13 $115,721 $40,000
14 $125,201
15 $133,819 $20,000
16 $141,654
17 $148,776 $0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
18 $155,251
19 $161,137 N
20 $166,488
21 $171,353
22 $175,775
23 $179,796
24 $183,451
Input Variables Input Cells OneExtreme BaseCase OtherExtreme
FirstCost $120,000 $108,000 $120,000 $180,000
Salvage $20,000 $0 $20,000 $30,000
N 12 6 12 24
i 10% 6% 10% 20%
O&M $6,000 $4,800 $6,000 $7,500
Revenue $55,000 $33,000 $55,000 $68,750
NNoRev 1 0 1 3
FracComp 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Intermediate Variables (Input Values for SensIt)
P/F,i,N $0.32
P/A,i,N $6.81
N-NNoRev 11 Example: How does Present Worth depend on each input assumption?
P/A,i,N-NNoRev $6.50
P/F,i,NNoRev $0.91 SensIt Tornado-Spider: Control+Shift+S (Windows Excel) or Option+Command+S
Revenue Discount $5.90
Output Variable SensIt - Many Inputs, One Output
Present Worth $105,293
Ranges for Input Variables

The financial model for a new Labels A2:A9


product and the notation Values B2:B9
shown here is based on an
example from:

Eschenbach, Ted G. 1992, Cells for Output Variable


"Spiderplots versus Tornado
Diagrams for Sensitivity Label A18
Analysis," Interfaces, Vol. 22, Value B18
No. 6 (Nov.-Dec.), pp. 40-46.
LowerLimit% UpperLimit%
90% 150%
0% 150%
50% 200%
60% 200%
80% 125%
60% 125%
0% 300%
0% 200%
(Eschenbach's Inputs
Relative To Base Case)

d on each input assumption?

Windows Excel) or Option+Command+S (Mac Excel)

Ranges for Input Values

One Extreme D2:D9


Base Case E2:E9
Other Extreme F2:F9

Single-Factor Tornado Chart


Single-Factor Spider Chart
Step Percent 5
Two-Factor Tornado Chart
SensIt
Many Inputs, One Output
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date (current date) Workbook (file name)


Time (current time) Output Cell ManyInputs!$B$18

Present Worth
Corresponding Input Value Output Value Percent
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low Base High Swing Swing^2
Revenue $33,000 $55,000 $68,750 $1,372 $105,293 $170,244 $168,872 25.0%
N 6 12 24 $16,789 $105,293 $183,451 $166,661 24.3%
i 20% 10% 6% $14,267 $105,293 $167,016 $152,749 20.5%
FracComp 0.4 0.2 0 $40,342 $105,293 $170,244 $129,901 14.8%
NNoRev 3 1 0 $35,871 $105,293 $145,293 $109,421 10.5%
FirstCost $180,000 $120,000 $108,000 $45,293 $105,293 $117,293 $72,000 4.5%
O&M $7,500 $6,000 $4,800 $95,072 $105,293 $113,469 $18,397 0.3%
Salvage $0 $20,000 $30,000 $98,920 $105,293 $108,479 $9,559 0.1%

SensIt

Revenue

FracComp

NNoRev

FirstCost

O&M

Salvage

0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
, 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00 , 00
20 $ 20 $ 40 $ 60 $ 80 00 20 40 60 80 00 20
-$ $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2

Present Worth
This Version Not Licensed For Commercial Or Student Use

SensIt
Many Inputs, One Output
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date (current date) Workbook (file name)


Time (current time) Output Cell ManyInputs!$B$18

Present Worth
Corresponding Input Value Input Value as % of Base Output Value
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low % Base % High % Low Base High Swing
Revenue $33,000 $55,000 $68,750 60.0% 100.0% 125.0% $1,372 $105,293 $170,244 $168,872
N 6 12 24 50.0% 100.0% 200.0% $16,789 $105,293 $183,451 $166,661
i 20% 10% 6% 200.0% 100.0% 60.0% $14,267 $105,293 $167,016 $152,749
FracComp 0.4 0.2 0 200.0% 100.0% 0.0% $40,342 $105,293 $170,244 $129,901
NNoRev 3 1 0 300.0% 100.0% 0.0% $35,871 $105,293 $145,293 $109,421
FirstCost $180,000 $120,000 $108,000 150.0% 100.0% 90.0% $45,293 $105,293 $117,293 $72,000
O&M $7,500 $6,000 $4,800 125.0% 100.0% 80.0% $95,072 $105,293 $113,469 $18,397
Salvage $0 $20,000 $30,000 0.0% 100.0% 150.0% $98,920 $105,293 $108,479 $9,559

SensIt Spider Chart


$220,000

$200,000

$180,000
Present Worth

$160,000

$140,000

Revenue
$120,000 N
i
$100,000 FracComp
NNoRev
$80,000 FirstCost
O&M
Salvage
$60,000

$40,000

$20,000

$0

-$20,000
-50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0% 300.0% 350.0%
Input Value as % of Base Case

SensIt Trial Version, Only For Evaluation TreePlan.com


SensIt
Many Inputs, One Output
Two-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date (current date) Workbook (file name)


Time (current time) Output Cell ManyInputs!$B$18

Present Worth
Corresponding Input Values Output Value
Input Variables Low Output Base Case High Output Low Base High Swing
N&i 6 & 20% 12 & 10% 24 & 6% -$23,599 $105,293 $320,344 $343,943
N & Revenue 6 & $33,000 12 & $55,000 24 & $68,750 -$43,863 $105,293 $272,283 $316,146
i & Revenue 20% & $33,000 10% & $55,000 6% & $68,750 -$49,197 $105,293 $248,861 $298,058
N & FracComp 6 & 0.4 12 & 0.2 24 & 0 -$21,118 $105,293 $272,283 $293,401
Revenue & FracComp $33,000 & 0.4 $55,000 & 0.2 $68,750 & 0 -$37,598 $105,293 $251,432 $289,030
N & NNoRev 6&3 12 & 1 24 & 0 -$52,632 $105,293 $223,451 $276,083
i & FracComp 20% & 0.4 10% & 0.2 6% & 0 -$25,398 $105,293 $248,861 $274,259
Revenue & NNoRev $33,000 & 3 $55,000 & 1 $68,750 & 0 -$40,281 $105,293 $220,244 $260,524
i & NNoRev 20% & 3 10% & 1 6% & 0 -$41,752 $105,293 $208,525 $250,277
FirstCost & Revenue $180,000 & $33,000 $120,000 & $55,000 $108,000 & $68,750 -$58,628 $105,293 $182,244 $240,872
FirstCost & N $180,000 & 6 $120,000 & 12 $108,000 & 24 -$43,211 $105,293 $195,451 $238,661
NNoRev & FracComp 3 & 0.4 1 & 0.2 0&0 -$11,724 $105,293 $220,244 $231,967
FirstCost & i $180,000 & 20% $120,000 & 10% $108,000 & 6% -$45,733 $105,293 $179,016 $224,749
FirstCost & FracComp $180,000 & 0.4 $120,000 & 0.2 $108,000 & 0 -$19,658 $105,293 $182,244 $201,901
O&M & Revenue $7,500 & $33,000 $6,000 & $55,000 $4,800 & $68,750 -$8,849 $105,293 $178,420 $187,269
N & O&M 6 & $7,500 12 & $6,000 24 & $4,800 $10,256 $105,293 $194,232 $183,976
FirstCost & NNoRev $180,000 & 3 $120,000 & 1 $108,000 & 0 -$24,129 $105,293 $157,293 $181,421
Salvage & N $0 & 6 $20,000 & 12 $30,000 & 24 $5,500 $105,293 $184,466 $178,966
Salvage & Revenue $0 & $33,000 $20,000 & $55,000 $30,000 & $68,750 -$5,001 $105,293 $173,430 $178,431
i & O&M 20% & $7,500 10% & $6,000 6% & $4,800 $7,608 $105,293 $177,077 $169,469
Salvage & i $0 & 20% $20,000 & 10% $30,000 & 6% $12,024 $105,293 $171,986 $159,962
O&M & FracComp $7,500 & 0.4 $6,000 & 0.2 $4,800 & 0 $30,122 $105,293 $178,420 $148,298
Salvage & FracComp $0 & 0.4 $20,000 & 0.2 $30,000 & 0 $33,970 $105,293 $173,430 $139,460
O&M & NNoRev $7,500 & 3 $6,000 & 1 $4,800 & 0 $25,651 $105,293 $153,469 $127,818
Salvage & NNoRev $0 & 3 $20,000 & 1 $30,000 & 0 $29,499 $105,293 $148,479 $118,980
FirstCost & O&M $180,000 & $7,500 $120,000 & $6,000 $108,000 & $4,800 $35,072 $105,293 $125,469 $90,397
FirstCost & Salvage $180,000 & $0 $120,000 & $20,000 $108,000 & $30,000 $38,920 $105,293 $120,479 $81,559
Salvage & O&M $0 & $7,500 $20,000 & $6,000 $30,000 & $4,800 $88,700 $105,293 $116,656 $27,956

SensIt

N&i

N & Revenue

i & Revenue

N & FracComp

Revenue & FracComp

N & NNoRev

i & FracComp

Revenue & NNoRev

i & NNoRev

FirstCost & Revenue

FirstCost & N

NNoRev & FracComp

FirstCost & i
Revenue & NNoRev

i & NNoRev

FirstCost & Revenue

FirstCost & N

NNoRev & FracComp

FirstCost & i

FirstCost & FracComp

O&M & Revenue

N & O&M

FirstCost & NNoRev

Salvage & N

Salvage & Revenue

i & O&M

Salvage & i

O&M & FracComp

Salvage & FracComp

O&M & NNoRev

Salvage & NNoRev

FirstCost & O&M

FirstCost & Salvage

Salvage & O&M


00

00

00

00
00

00

$0

00

00

00

00
00

00

00
,0

,0

,0

,0

,0

,0

,0

,0

,0

,0
,0

0,

0,
00

00

00

50

00

50

00

50

00

50
50

$5
2

$1

$1

$2

$2

$3

$4
-$

$3

$4
-$

-$

-$

Present Worth
SensIt Overview

SensIt Sensitivity Analysis Add-In


for Microsoft Excel 2007-2016 (Windows)
and Excel 2011-2016 (Macintosh)

To run SensIt, start Excel and open the SensIt xlam file. SensIt adds a
SensIt Tornado-Spider item and a SensIt One-Input Plot item to the Tools
menu or Add-Ins ribbon.

All of SensIt’s functionality is included in the SensIt xlam file. There is no


separate setup file or help file.

Before using the SensIt options, you must have a spreadsheet model with
one or more numerical inputs and a numerical output. All SensIt options
make it easy for you to see how sensitive the output is to changes in the
inputs.

Installation
There are two ways to use SensIt:

(1) Recommended: Install SensIt by following detailed instructions in the


separate How-To-Install-Addin.PDF file.

(2) Start Excel, and use Excel’s File | Open command to open the SensIt
xlam file.

How To Uninstall To uninstall or delete SensIt, refer to the appropriate section of the How-
To-Install-Addin.PDF file.

One-Input Plot

Use SensIt’s One-Input Plot option to see how your model’s output
depends on changes in a single input variable.

Cells for Input Variable: Enter a single cell reference in each range edit
box, or point to a single cell on the worksheet. The Label cell should be
descriptive text, and the Value cell should contain a numerical value used
as an input to your model.

Input Values: Enter numerical values into each edit box.

Cells for Output Variable: Enter a single cell reference in each range edit
box, or point to a single cell on the worksheet. The Label cell should be
descriptive text, and the Value cell should contain a formula that produces
a numerical value as the output of your model.

SensIt uses the Start, Step, and Stop values to prepare a table of values.
Each value is copied to ypur model's input variable value cell, the
worksheet is recalculated, and the value of your model's output variable
value cell is copied to the table. (You could do this manually using the Edit |
Fill | Series and Data | Table commands.) SensIt uses the input and output
values to prepare an XY (Scatter) chart; the text in the label cells you
identified are used as the chart’s axis labels. (You could do this manually
using the ChartWizard.)
Tornado-Spider

Use SensIt’s Tornado-Spider option to see how your model’s output


depends on ranges you specify for each of the model’s input variables.

Before using this option, a typical arrangement is to enter your model input
cells in adjacent cells in a single column, arrange corresponding labels in
adjacent cells in a single column, and arrange One Extreme, Base Case,
and Other Extreme input values for each input variable in three separate
columns.

The three ranges containing input values can be worst case, likely case,
and best case, or they can be low, base, and high (or high, base, and low).

Cells for Input Variables and Cells for Input Values: The input ranges can
be in columns, in rows, or in nonadjacent cells. To make nonadjacent
selections, click in the range edit box, make the first selection, and press
the Control key while making other cell selections. Each of the input range
edit boxes must reference the same number of cells.

For example, if your model has five inputs, the names of the five inputs
could be text in A1:A5. The input cells of your model could be numbers in
B1:B5; when you change a number in one of these cells, the output of your
model changes. The One Extreme input values could be numbers in
D1:D5, chosen as the minimum possible value you think each input
variable could be. The Base Case input values could be numbers in E1:E5,
chosen as the most likely value for each input; you might also have these
same numbers in B1:B5 as current inputs to your model. The Other
Extreme input values could be numbers in F1:F5, chosen as the maximum
possible value you think each input variable could be.

Cells for Output Variable: Enter a single cell reference in each range edit
box, or point to a single cell on the worksheet. The Label cell should be
descriptive text, and the Value cell should contain a formula that produces
a numerical value as the output of your model.

Single-Factor Tornado Chart

This Tornado-Spider feature produces a tornado chart.

For each input variable, SensIt sets all other input values at their Base
Case values, copies the One Extreme input value to the input variable cell,
recalculates the worksheet, and copies the value of the output variable cell
to the table. The steps are repeated using each Other Extreme input value.
For each input variable, SensIt computes the swing, i.e., the range of the
extreme output variable values, sorts the table from largest swing down to
smallest swing, and prepares a bar chart.
Single-Factor Spider Chart

This Tornado-Spider feature produces a spider chart with a Step Percent


you specify.

For each input variable, SensIt computes input values from One Extreme to
the Other Extreme, using values that are a percent of the Base Case, with
the Step Percent you specify. Then SensIt sets all other input values at
their Base Case values, copies the step input value to the input variable
cell, recalculates the worksheet, and copies the value of the output variable
cell to the table. The steps are repeated using each step input value. For
each input variable, SensIt computes the swing, i.e., the range of the
extreme output variable values, and sorts the table from largest swing
down to smallest swing.

An XY (Scatter) chart shows how the output value depends on the step
input values. If the Base Case value of an input variable is zero, that input
variable is not included in the spider chart.
Two-Factor Tornado Chart

For each pair of input variables, SensIt examines all nine combinations of
the One Extreme, Base Case, and Other Extreme values. SensIt sets all
other input values at their Base Case values, copies a combination of input
values to the input variables' cells, recalculates the worksheet, and copies
the value of the output variable cell to the table. The steps are repeated for
each combination. For each pair of input variables, SensIt computes the
swing, i.e., the range of the extreme output variable values from the nine
combinations, sorts the table from largest swing down to smallest swing,
and prepares a bar chart.
Support Documentation pdf files and example xls files are available for download
from www.treeplan.com. For additional support, send email to
[email protected].

Acknowledgements
The original version of SensIt for Excel was developed by Michael R.
Middleton of the University of San Francisco and James E. Smith of Duke
University. Thierry Crifasi and Renu Gupta provided assistance with
subsequent versions. This current version was completely rewritten during
2005-2020 by Mike Middleton.

Copyright © 2020 by TreePlan Software. All Rights Reserved.


Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi

Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a contract.


By downloading, accepting delivery of, installing, or using any part of the
Software, licensee agrees to be bound by all terms and conditions of this license.

Definitions The software product, “Software,” means the Pro, Student, or Trial
version of TreePlan, SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in files,
associated example files, and electronic documentation files, and also any
updates or modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan Software.

The licensor, “TreePlan Software” or “We” or “Us” or “Our,” means Mike Middleton
or Michael R. Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software, a sole
proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan Street, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115
USA.

The licensee, “You” or “Your,” means the individual person or a single


organizational entity that is being licensed to use the Software.

This license agreement, “Agreement,” means this legal and binding agreement
between you and TreePlan Software for the Software you are about to download,
install, or use.

"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to define,
solve, analyze, or obtain results for a user-defined model.

Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan Software. Your


license confers no title or ownership in the Software and should not be construed
as a sale of any right in the Software. We remain the sole owner of all right, title,
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materials. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual property in the
Software is transferred to you by the license. You further acknowledge that title
and full ownership rights to the Software will remain the exclusive property of
TreePlan Software and that you will not acquire any rights to the Software except
as expressly set forth in this license.

Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws and


international treaty provisions.
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