Drought

A drought is an event of prolonged short ages in t he wat er supply, whet her at mospheric (below-
average precipit at ion), surface wat er or ground wat er. A drought can last for mont hs or years, or
may be declared aft er as few as 15 days.[1] It can have a subst ant ial impact on t he ecosyst em
and agricult ure of t he affect ed region[2] and harm t o t he local economy.[3] Annual dry seasons in
t he t ropics significant ly increase t he chances of a drought developing and subsequent bush fires.
Periods of heat can significant ly worsen drought condit ions by hast ening evaporat ion of wat er
vapour.

Contraction/Desiccation cracks in dry earth (Sonoran desert, Mexico).

Drought severity world map

Drought is a recurring feat ure of t he climat e in most part s of t he world. However, t hese regular
drought s have become more ext reme and more unpredict able due t o climat e change. In fact
st udies based on dendrochronology, or t ree rings dat ing, confirm t hat drought affect ed by global
warming goes back t o 1900.

Many plant species, such as t hose in t he family Cact aceae (or cact i), have drought t olerance
adapt at ions like reduced leaf area and waxy cut icles t o enhance t heir abilit y t o t olerat e drought .
Some ot hers survive dry periods as buried seeds. Semi-permanent drought produces arid biomes
such as desert s and grasslands.[4] Prolonged drought s have caused mass migrat ions and
humanit arian crisis. Most arid ecosyst ems have inherent ly low product ivit y. The most prolonged
drought ever in t he world in recorded hist ory occurred in t he At acama Desert in Chile (400
Years).[5]

Throughout hist ory, humans have usually viewed drought s as "disast ers" due t o t he impact on
food availabilit y and t he rest of societ y. Humans have oft en t ried t o explain drought s as eit her a
nat ural disast er, caused by humans, or t he result of supernat ural forces. It is among t he earliest
document ed climat ic event s, present in t he Epic of Gilgamesh and t ied t o t he Biblical st ory of
Joseph's arrival in and t he lat er Exodus from Ancient Egypt .[6] Hunt er-gat herer migrat ions in 9,500
BC Chile have been linked t o t he phenomenon,[7] as has t he exodus of early humans out of Africa
and int o t he rest of t he world around 135,000 years ago.[8] Rit uals exist t o prevent or avert
drought , rainmaking could go from dances t o scapegoat ing t o human sacrifices. Nowadays, t hose
ancient pract ices are for t he most part relegat ed t o folklore and replaced by more rat ional wat er
management .

Types
People t end t o define drought s in t hree main ways:
[9]

1. Met eorological drought occurs when t here is a prolonged t ime wit h less t han average
precipit at ion.[10] Met eorological drought usually precedes t he ot her kinds of drought .[11]

2. Agricult ural drought s affect crop product ion or t he ecology of t he range. This condit ion can
also arise independent ly from any change in precipit at ion levels when eit her increased
irrigat ion or soil condit ions and erosion t riggered by poorly planned agricult ural endeavors
cause a short fall in wat er available t o t he crops. However, in a t radit ional drought , it is
caused by an ext ended period of below average precipit at ion.[12]

3. Hydrological drought is brought about when t he wat er reserves available in sources such as
aquifers, lakes and reservoirs fall below a locally significant t hreshold. Hydrological drought
t ends t o show up more slowly because it involves st ored wat er t hat is used but not
replenished. Like an agricult ural drought , t his can be t riggered by more t han just a loss of
rainfall. For inst ance, around 2007 Kazakhst an was awarded a large amount of money by t he
World Bank t o rest ore wat er t hat had been divert ed t o ot her nat ions from t he Aral Sea
under Soviet rule.[13] Similar circumst ances also place t heir largest lake, Balkhash, at risk of
complet ely drying out .[14]

As a drought persist s, t he condit ions surrounding it gradually worsen and it s impact on t he local
populat ion gradually increases.

Causes

Precipitation deficiency

Mechanisms of producing precipit at ion include convect ive, st rat iform,[15] and orographic
rainfall.[16] Convect ive processes involve st rong vert ical mot ions t hat can cause t he overt urning
of t he at mosphere in t hat locat ion wit hin an hour and cause heavy precipit at ion,[17] while
st rat iform processes involve weaker upward mot ions and less int ense precipit at ion over a longer
durat ion.[18] Precipit at ion can be divided int o t hree cat egories, based on whet her it falls as liquid
wat er, liquid wat er t hat freezes on cont act wit h t he surface, or ice. Drought s occur mainly in
areas where normal levels of rainfall are, in t hemselves, low. If t hese fact ors do not support
precipit at ion volumes sufficient ly t o reach t he surface over a sufficient t ime, t he result is a
drought . Drought can be t riggered by a high level of reflect ed sunlight and above average
prevalence of high pressure syst ems, winds carrying cont inent al, rat her t han oceanic air masses,
and ridges of high pressure areas aloft can prevent or rest rict t he developing of t hunderst orm
act ivit y or rainfall over one cert ain region. Once a region is wit hin drought , feedback mechanisms
such as local arid air,[19] hot condit ions which can promot e warm core ridging,[20] and minimal
evapot ranspirat ion can worsen drought condit ions.

Dry season

Wit hin t he t ropics, dist inct , wet and dry seasons emerge due t o t he movement of t he
Int ert ropical Convergence Zone or Monsoon t rough.[21] The dry season great ly increases drought
occurrence,[22] and is charact erized by it s low humidit y, wit h wat ering holes and rivers drying up.
Because of t he lack of t hese wat ering holes, many grazing animals are forced t o migrat e due t o
t he lack of wat er in search of more fert ile lands. Examples of such animals are zebras, elephant s,
and wildebeest . Because of t he lack of wat er in t he plant s, bushfires are common.[23] Since
wat er vapor becomes more energet ic wit h increasing t emperat ure, more wat er vapor is required
t o increase relat ive humidit y values t o 100% at higher t emperat ures (or t o get t he t emperat ure
t o fall t o t he dew point ).[24] Periods of warmt h quicken t he pace of fruit and veget able
product ion,[25] increase evaporat ion and t ranspirat ion from plant s,[26] and worsen drought
condit ions.[27]

El Niño

Regional impacts of warm ENSO episodes (El Niño)

Drier and hot t er weat her occurs in part s of t he Amazon River Basin, Colombia, and Cent ral
America during El Niño event s. Wint ers during t he El Niño are warmer and drier t han average
condit ions in t he Nort hwest , nort hern Midwest , and nort hern Mideast Unit ed St at es, so t hose
regions experience reduced snowfalls. Condit ions are also drier t han normal from December t o
February in sout h-cent ral Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Bot swana. Direct
effect s of El Niño result ing in drier condit ions occur in part s of Sout heast Asia and Nort hern
Aust ralia, increasing bush fires, worsening haze, and decreasing air qualit y dramat ically. Drier-t han-
normal condit ions are also in general observed in Queensland, inland Vict oria, inland New Sout h
Wales, and east ern Tasmania from June t o August . As warm wat er spreads from t he west Pacific
and t he Indian Ocean t o t he east Pacific, it causes ext ensive drought in t he west ern Pacific.
Singapore experienced t he driest February in 2014 since records began in 1869, wit h only 6.3 mm
of rain falling in t he mont h and t emperat ures hit t ing as high as 35 °C on 26 February. The years
1968 and 2005 had t he next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[28]

Erosion and human activities

Human act ivit y can direct ly t rigger exacerbat ing fact ors such as over farming, excessive
irrigat ion,[29] deforest at ion, and erosion adversely impact t he abilit y of t he land t o capt ure and
hold wat er.[30] In arid climat es, t he main source of erosion is wind.[31] Erosion can be t he result of
mat erial movement by t he wind. The wind can cause small part icles t o be lift ed and t herefore
moved t o anot her region (deflat ion). Suspended part icles wit hin t he wind may impact on solid
object s causing erosion by abrasion (ecological succession). Wind erosion generally occurs in
areas wit h lit t le or no veget at ion, oft en in areas where t here is insufficient rainfall t o support
veget at ion.[32]

Fields outside Benambra, Victoria, Australia suffering from drought conditions in 2006.

Loess is a homogeneous, t ypically nonst rat ified, porous, friable, slight ly coherent , oft en
calcareous, fine-grained, silt y, pale yellow or buff, windblown (Aeolian) sediment .[33] It generally
occurs as a widespread blanket deposit t hat covers areas of hundreds of square kilomet ers and
t ens of met ers t hick. Loess oft en st ands in eit her st eep or vert ical faces.[34] Loess t ends t o
develop int o highly rich soils. Under appropriat e climat ic condit ions, areas wit h loess are among
t he most agricult urally product ive in t he world.[35] Loess deposit s are geologically unst able by
nat ure, and will erode very readily. Therefore, windbreaks (such as big t rees and bushes) are oft en
plant ed by farmers t o reduce t he wind erosion of loess.[31] Wind erosion is much more severe in
arid areas and during t imes of drought . For example, in t he Great Plains, it is est imat ed t hat soil
loss due t o wind erosion can be as much as 6100 t imes great er in drought years t han in wet
years.[36]

Climate change

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) projected multiplicative increases in the frequency of extreme events
compared to the pre-industrial era for heat waves, droughts and heavy precipitation events, for various global warming
scenarios.[37]

Global climat e change is expect ed t o t rigger drought s wit h a subst ant ial impact on
agricult ure [38][39] t hroughout t he world, and especially in developing nat ions.[40][41][42] Along wit h
drought in some areas, flooding and erosion could increase in ot hers. Some proposed solut ions t o
global warming t hat focus on more act ive t echniques, solar radiat ion management t hrough t he
use of a space sunshade for one, may also carry wit h t hem increased chances of drought .[43]

According t o t he Special Report on Climat e Change and Land of t he Int ergovernment al Panel on
Climat e Change climat e change increase drought and desert ificat ion. Hundreds of million people
are affect ed. The affect ed area includes large t errit ories in Africa, Asia, Aust ralia, and Sout h
America.[44]

Climat e change affect s mult iple fact ors associat ed wit h drought s, such as how much rain falls
and how fast t he rain evaporat es again. It is set t o increase t he severit y and frequency of
drought s around much of t he world.[45] Due t o limit at ions on how much dat a is available about
drought in t he past , it is oft en impossible t o confident ly at t ribut e drought s t o human-induced
climat e change. Some areas however, such as t he Medit erranean and California, already show a
clear human signat ure.[46] Their impact s are aggravat ed because of increased wat er demand,
populat ion growt h, urban expansion, and environment al prot ect ion effort s in many areas.[47]

Consequences

Global drought total economic loss risk

Pair of dead oryx in Namibia during the 2018–19 Southern Africa drought.
One can divide t he effect s of drought s and wat er short ages int o t hree groups: environment al,
economic and social.

In t he case of environment al effect s: lower surface and subt erranean wat er-levels, lower
flow-levels (wit h a decrease below t he minimum leading t o direct danger for amphibian life),
increased pollut ion of surface wat er, t he drying out of wet lands, more and larger fires, higher
deflat ion int ensit y, loss of biodiversit y, worse healt h of t rees and t he appearance of pest s and
dendroid diseases.

Economic losses include lower agricult ural, forest s, game and fishing out put , higher food-
product ion cost s, lower energy-product ion levels in hydro plant s, losses caused by deplet ed
wat er t ourism and t ransport revenue, problems wit h wat er supply for t he energy sect or and
for t echnological processes in met allurgy, mining, t he chemical, paper, wood, foodst uff
indust ries et c., disrupt ion of wat er supplies for municipal economies.

Social cost s include t he negat ive effect on t he healt h of people direct ly exposed t o t his
phenomenon (excessive heat waves), possible limit at ion of wat er supplies, increased pollut ion
levels, high food-cost s, st ress caused by failed harvest s, et c. This explains why drought s and
fresh wat er short ages operat e as a fact or which increases t he gap bet ween developed and
developing count ries.[48]

Effect s vary according t o vulnerabilit y. For example, subsist ence farmers are more likely t o
migrat e during drought because t hey do not have alt ernat ive food-sources. Areas wit h
populat ions t hat depend on wat er sources as a major food-source are more vulnerable t o famine.

Drought can also reduce wat er qualit y,[49][50] because lower wat er-flows reduce dilut ion of
pollut ant s and increase cont aminat ion of remaining wat er-sources. Common consequences of
drought include:

Diminished crop growt h or yield product ions and carrying capacit y for livest ock

Dust bowls, t hemselves a sign of erosion, which furt her erode t he landscape

Dust st orms, when drought hit s an area suffering from desert ificat ion and erosion

Famine [51]

Habit at damage, affect ing bot h t errest rial and aquat ic wildlife [52]

Hunger – drought provides t oo lit t le wat er t o support food crops.

 Malnut rit ion, dehydrat ion and relat ed diseases

Mass migrat ion, result ing in int ernal displacement and int ernat ional refugees

Reduced elect ricit y product ion due t o reduced wat er-flow t hrough hydroelect ric dams[53]

Short ages of wat er for indust rial users[54][55]

Snake migrat ion, which result s in snake-bit es[56]

Social unrest

War over nat ural resources, including wat er and food

Wildfires, such as Aust ralian bushfires, become more common during t imes of drought and may
cause human deat hs.[57]

Exposure and oxidat ion of acid sulfat e soils due t o falling surface- and ground-wat er
levels.[58][59][60]

Cyanot oxin accumulat ion wit hin food chains and wat er supply (some of which are among t he
most pot ent t oxins known t o science) can cause cancer wit h low exposure over t he long
t erm.[61] High levels of microcyst in appeared in San Francisco Bay Area salt -wat er shellfish and
fresh-wat er supplies t hroughout t he st at e of California in 2016.

Protection, mitigation and relief

Succulent plants are well-adapted to survive long periods of drought.

Water distribution on Marshall Islands during El Niño.

Agricult urally, people can effect ively mit igat e much of t he impact of drought t hrough irrigat ion
and crop rot at ion. Failure t o develop adequat e drought mit igat ion st rat egies carries a grave
human cost in t he modern era, exacerbat ed by ever-increasing populat ion densit ies. President
Roosevelt on April 27, 1935, signed document s creat ing t he Soil Conservat ion Service (SCS)—
now t he Nat ural Resources Conservat ion Service (NRCS). Models of t he law were sent t o each
st at e where t hey were enact ed. These were t he first enduring pract ical programs t o curt ail
fut ure suscept ibilit y t o drought , creat ing agencies t hat first began t o st ress soil conservat ion
measures t o prot ect farm lands t oday. It was not unt il t he 1950s t hat t here was an import ance
placed on wat er conservat ion was put int o t he exist ing laws (NRCS 2014).[62]

St rat egies for drought prot ect ion, mit igat ion or relief include:

Dams – many dams and t heir associat ed reservoirs supply addit ional wat er in t imes of
drought .[63]

Cloud seeding – a form of int ent ional weat her modificat ion t o induce rainfall.[64] This remains a
hot ly debat ed t opic, as t he Unit ed St at es Nat ional Research Council released a report in 2004
st at ing t hat t o dat e, t here is st ill no convincing scient ific proof of t he efficacy of int ent ional
weat her modificat ion.[65]

Desalinat ion – use of sea wat er for irrigat ion or consumpt ion.[66]

Drought monit oring – Cont inuous observat ion of rainfall levels and comparisons wit h current
usage levels can help prevent man-made drought . For inst ance, analysis of wat er usage in
Yemen has revealed t hat t heir wat er t able (underground wat er level) is put at grave risk by
over-use t o fert ilize t heir Khat crop.[67] Careful monit oring of moist ure levels can also help
 predict increased risk for wildfires, using such met rics as t he Keet ch-Byram Drought Index[57]
or Palmer Drought Index.

Land use – Carefully planned crop rot at ion can help t o minimize erosion and allow farmers t o
plant less wat er-dependent crops in drier years.

Out door wat er-use rest rict ion – Regulat ing t he use of sprinklers, hoses or bucket s on out door
plant s, filling pools, and ot her wat er-int ensive home maint enance t asks. Xeriscaping yards can
significant ly reduce unnecessary wat er use by resident s of t owns and cit ies.

Rainwat er harvest ing – Collect ion and st orage of rainwat er from roofs or ot her suit able
cat chment s.

Recycled wat er – Former wast ewat er (sewage) t hat has been t reat ed and purified for reuse.

Transvasement – Building canals or redirect ing rivers as massive at t empt s at irrigat ion in
drought -prone areas.

History

A South Dakota farm during the Dust Bowl, 1936

Well-known hist orical drought s include:

1540 Cent ral Europe, said t o be t he “worst drought of t he millennium” wit h eleven mont hs
wit hout rain and t emperat ures of 5–7 °C above t he average of t he 20t h cent ury[68][69]

1900 India killing bet ween 250,000 and 3.25 million.

1921–22 Soviet Union in which over 5 million perished from st arvat ion due t o drought .
 1928–30 Nort hwest China result ing in over 3 million deat hs by famine.

1936 and 1941 Sichuan Province China result ing in 5 million and 2.5 million deat hs respect ively.

The 1997–2009 Millennium Drought in Aust ralia led t o a wat er supply crisis across much of t he
count ry. As a result , many desalinat ion plant s were built for t he first t ime (see list ).

In 2006, Sichuan Province China experienced it s worst drought in modern t imes wit h nearly 8
million people and over 7 million cat t le facing wat er short ages.

12-year drought t hat was devast at ing sout hwest West ern Aust ralia, sout heast Sout h Aust ralia,
Vict oria and nort hern Tasmania was "very severe and wit hout hist orical precedent ".

2015–2018 Cape Town wat er crisis. This likelihood was t ripled by climat e change.[70]

Affected areas in the western Sahel belt during the 2012 drought.

The Darfur conflict in Sudan, also affect ing Chad, was fueled by decades of drought ;
combinat ion of drought , desert ificat ion and overpopulat ion are among t he causes of t he Darfur
conflict , because t he Arab Baggara nomads searching for wat er have t o t ake t heir livest ock
furt her sout h, t o land mainly occupied by non-Arab farming people.[71]

Drought-affected area in Karnataka, India in 2012.

Approximat ely 2.4 billion people live in t he drainage basin of t he Himalayan rivers.[72] India, China,
Pakist an, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by drought s in
coming decades. Drought in India affect ing t he Ganges is of part icular concern, as it provides
drinking wat er and agricult ural irrigat ion for more t han 500 million people.[73][74][75] The west
coast of Nort h America, which get s much of it s wat er from glaciers in mount ain ranges such as
t he Rocky Mount ains and Sierra Nevada, also would be affect ed.[76][77]

In 2005, part s of t he Amazon basin experienced t he worst drought in 100 years.[78][79] A 23 July
2006 art icle report ed Woods Hole Research Cent er result s showing t hat t he forest in it s present
form could survive only t hree years of drought .[80][81] Scient ist s at t he Brazilian Nat ional Inst it ut e
of Amazonian Research argue in t he art icle t hat t his drought response, coupled wit h t he effect s
of deforest at ion on regional climat e, are pushing t he rainforest t owards a "t ipping point " where it
would irreversibly st art t o die. It concludes t hat t he rainforest is on t he brink of being t urned int o
savanna or desert , wit h cat ast rophic consequences for t he world's climat e. According t o t he
WWF, t he combinat ion of climat e change and deforest at ion increases t he drying effect of dead
t rees t hat fuels forest fires.[82]

Lake Chad in a 2001 satellite image. The lake has shrunk by 95% since the 1960s.[83][84]

By far t he largest part of Aust ralia is desert or semi-arid lands commonly known as t he out back.
A 2005 st udy by Aust ralian and American researchers invest igat ed t he desert ificat ion of t he
int erior, and suggest ed t hat one explanat ion was relat ed t o human set t lers who arrived about
50,000 years ago. Regular burning by t hese set t lers could have prevent ed monsoons from
reaching int erior Aust ralia.[85] In June 2008 it became known t hat an expert panel had warned of
long t erm, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for t he whole Murray-Darling basin if it
did not receive sufficient wat er by Oct ober 2008.[86] Aust ralia could experience more severe
drought s and t hey could become more frequent in t he fut ure, a government -commissioned
report said on July 6, 2008.[87] Aust ralian environment alist Tim Flannery, predict ed t hat unless it
made drast ic changes, Pert h in West ern Aust ralia could become t he world's first ghost
met ropolis, an abandoned cit y wit h no more wat er t o sust ain it s populat ion.[88] The long
Aust ralian Millennial drought broke in 2010.

Recurring drought s leading t o desert ificat ion in East Africa have creat ed grave ecological
cat ast rophes, prompt ing food short ages in 1984–85, 2006 and 2011.[89] During t he 2011 drought ,
an est imat ed 50,000 t o 150,000 people were report ed t o have died,[90] t hough t hese figures and
t he ext ent of t he crisis are disput ed.[91] In February 2012, t he UN announced t hat t he crisis was
over due t o a scaling up of relief effort s and a bumper harvest .[92] Aid agencies subsequent ly
shift ed t heir emphasis t o recovery effort s, including digging irrigat ion canals and dist ribut ing
plant seeds.[92]

In 2012, a severe drought st ruck t he west ern Sahel. The Met hodist Relief & Development Fund
(MRDF) report ed t hat more t han 10 million people in t he region were at risk of famine due t o a
mont h-long heat wave t hat was hovering over Niger, Mali, Maurit ania and Burkina Faso. A fund of
about £20,000 was dist ribut ed t o t he drought -hit count ries.[93]

A 2021 st udy has found t hat t he rise of compound warm-season drought s in Europe is a dynamic,
developing phenomenon.[94]

See also

Aridit y index

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Drought refuge

FEMA

Food securit y

Leaf Sensor

Permanent wilt ing point

 Thirst

Topsoil

Unit ed Nat ions Convent ion t o Combat Desert ificat ion

Wat er conflict

Wat er crisis

World Wat er Day

World Wat er Forum

Regional:

Amazon Rainforest drought

Aust ralia

China (2010)

India

Spain

Maya civilizat ion collapse

Russia and USSR

Sahel drought

Unit ed Kingdom

Unit ed St at es

Drought s in California

2021 Madagascar food crisis

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External links

Media relat ed t o Drought at Wikimedia Commons

The dict ionary definit ion of Drought at
Wikt ionary
Drought at Wikibooks

GIDMaPS (ht t p://drought .eng.uci.edu/) Global Int egrat ed Drought Monit oring and Predict ion
Syst em, Universit y of California, Irvine

Wat er scarcit y (ht t p://www.fao.org/nr/wat er/issues/scarcit y.ht ml) from FAO Wat er (Food
and Agricult ure Organizat ion of t he Unit ed Nat ions)

Global Real-Time Drought Media Monit oring (ht t p://event regist ry.org/concept /Drought )

Retrieved from
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title=Drought&oldid=1039002126"

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