Net Present Value and Cash Flow Analysis
Net Present Value and Cash Flow Analysis
Value
e m d e r that Co is negative if the immediate cash flow is an investment, that is, if it is a cash outflow.
ne discount rate r is determined by rates of return prevailing in financial markets. If the future cash flow is
absutely safe, then the discount rate is the interest rate on safe securities such as U.S. government debt. If the
fu I1ow is uncertain. then the
expected cash flow should be discounted at the expected rate of return
d D y equivalent-risk securities. (We talk more about risk and the cost ofcapital in Chapters 7 to 9.)
asn TiowS are discounted for two simple reasons: because (1) a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomor.
o and 2) a safe dollar is worth more than a risky one. Formulas for PV and NPV are numerical expressions of
these ideas.
a n c i a l markets, including the bond and stock markets, are the markets where safe and risky future cash
OWs are traded and valuced. That is why we look to rates of return prevailing in the financial markets to determine
Dow much to discount for time and risk. By calculating the present value of an asset, we are estimating how much
people will pay for it if they have the altemative of investing in the capital markets.
ou can always work out any present value using the basic formula. but shortcut formulas can reduce the
Ledium. We showed how to value
investment that makes a level stream of cash flows forever (a perpetuitry) and
an
onethat produces a level stream for a limited period (an annuity). We also showed how to value invesuments that
produce growing streams of cash flows.
When someone offers to lend you a dollar at a quoted interest rate, you should always check how frequently the
interest is to be paid. For
example, suppose that a T100 loan requires six-month payments of 3. The total yearidy
interest payment is T6 and the interest will be
quoted as a rate of 6% compounded semiannualiy. The equivalent
annually compounded rate is (1.03) l .061, or 6.1%. Sometimes it is convenient to assume that interest is paid
-
=
evenly over the year, so that interest is quoted as a continuously compounded rate.
PROBLEM SETS
BASIC
1. Future values If you invest 100 at an interest rate of 15%, how much will
you have at the end of eight
years?
2. Discount factors If the PV of T139 is 125, what is the discount factor?
3. Present values f the cost of capital is 9%, what is the PV of {374 paid in year 9?
4. Present values A project produces a cash flow of R432 in year 1, R137 in
year 2. and 797 in year 3. If the
cost of capital is 15%, what is the project's PV? If the project requires an investment of T1,200. what is its
NPV?
5. Opportunity cost of capital Which of the following statements are true? The
opportunity cost of capital:
a. Equals the interest rate at which the company can borrow.
b. Depends on the risk of the cash flows to be valued.
C. Depends on the rates of return that shareholders can expect to earn by investing on their own.
d. Equals zero if the firm has excess cash in ius bank account and the bank account pays no interest.
6. Perpetuities An investment costs 71,548 and pays R138 in perpetuity. If the interest rate is 9%. what is the
NPV?
7. Growing perpetuities A common stock will pay a cash dividend of R4 next year. After that, the dividends
are expected to increase indefinitely at 4% per year. If the discount rate is 14%, what is the PV of the stream
of dividend payments?
Chapter 2 How to Calculate Present Values 41
INTERMEDIATE
12. Future values and annuities
a. The cost of a new automobile is T300,000. If the interest rate is 5%, how much would you have to set aside
now to provide this sum in five years?
b. You have to pay T600,000 a year in school fees at the end of each of the next six years. If the interest rate
is 8%. how much do you need to set aside today to cover these bills?
c. You have invested T3,000.000 at 8%. After paying the above school fees, how much would remain at the
end of the six years?
13. Discount factors and present values
a. If the one-year discount factor is 905, what is the one-year interest rate?
b. If the two-year interest rate is 10.5%. what is the two-year discount factor?
C. Given these one- and two-year discount factors. calculate the two-year annuity factor.
d. If the PV of 10 a yeàr for three years is 24.65. what is the three-year annuity factor?
e. From your answers to (c) and (d). calculate the three-year discount factor.
14. Present values A factory costs 4,000,000. You reckon that it will produce an inflow after operating costs
of 7900.000 a year for 10 years. If the opportunity cost of capital is 14%, what is the net present value of the
factory? What will the factory be worth at the end of five years?
42 Part One Value
to produce the following cash flows
esent values A machine costs 20.000.000 and is expected
8 9 10
5 6
Year 2 3
4000 3400 2500
4250 4600 4600
Cash flow (RO00S) 2500 2850 3750 4000
NPV.
18. Present values and opportunity cost of capital Halcyon Lines is considering the purchase of a new bulk
carrier for $8 million. The forecasted revenues are $5 million a year and operating costs are $4 million, A
major refit costing $2 million will be required after both the fifth and tenth years. After 15 years, the ship is
expected to be sold for serap at $1.5 million.
a. What is the NPV if the opportunity cost of capital is 86?
b. Halcyon could finance the ship by borrowing the entire investment at an interest rate of 4.5%. How does
this borrowing opportunity affect your calculation of NPV?
19. Present values As winner of a breakfast cereal competition, you can choose one of the following prizes
a. 100,000 now.
b.T180,000 at the end of five years.
c. F11,400 a year forever.
d. 719,000 for each of 10 years.
e. T6,500 next year and increasing thereafter by 5% a year forever.
If the interest rate is 12%, which is the most valuable prize?
20. Annuities Parminder Kaur is 65 years of age and has a life expectancy of 12 more years. She wishes to invest
T10 lakhs in an annuity that will make a level payment at the end of each year until her death. If the interest rale
is 9.5%, what income can Mrs. Kaur expect to receive each year?
21. Annuities David and Helen Zhang are saving to buy a boat at the end
of five years. If the boat co
$20,000 and they can earn 10% a year on their savings, how much do of
years I through 5?
they need to put aside at the Cnd
axis. At what discount rate (approximately) wouid the project have zero
discount rates on the horizon
NPV? Check your answer.
24. Perpetuities and continuous compounding the interest rate is
7%, what is the value of the follow
three investments?
a. An investment that offers you $100 a year in perpetuity with the payment at the end of each
year.
b.A similar investment with the
payment at the beginning ofeach year.
C. A similar investment with the
payment spread evenly over each year.
Chapter 2 How to Calculate Present Values 43
25. Perpetuities and annuities Refer to Sections 2-3 through 2-4. If the rate of interest is 8% rather than 10%
how much would you need to set aside to provide each of the following?
a. I billion at the end of each year in perpetuity.
b. A perpetuity that pays ?I billion at the end of the first year and that grows at 4% a year.
a. The annuity payments arrive at one-year intervals. The first pay ment arrives one year from now
b. The first payment arrives in six months. Following payments arrive at one-ycar intervals (i.e.. at 18
Sincerely,
Luxury Challenged
Marblehead. MA
You can assume that
the withdrawals (one will sit in
The
per year) a checking account (no interest) until
couple will use the account to cover the
spent
35. Present values Your
monthly shortfalls.
firm's geologists have discovered a small oil field in New York's Westchester
The field is forecasted to
produce a cash flow of C $2 million in the first =
You estimate that
County
earn an
expected return of r =12% from investing in stocks with a similaryear. you could
Therefore, 12% is the degree of risk to your oil field.
opportunity cost of capital.
What is the present value? The
answer, of course,
year. Calculate present value for the depends on what happens to the cash flows after the first
following cases:
a. The cash flows areforecasted to continue forever, with no
expected growth or decline.
b. The cash flows are forecasted to
continue for 20 years only, with
that period. no
expected growth or decline during
c. The cash flows are forecasted to continue forever., increasing
d. The cash flows by3% per year because of
inflation.
are forecasted to continue for 20 years
36. only, increasing by 3% per year because of inflation.
Amortizing loans Suppose that
you take out a
interest rate on the loan is
R200,000, 20-year mortgage loan to buy
6o, and payments on the loan are made
a condo. The
a. What is your annual annually at the end of each
year
payment on the loan?
b. Construct a mortgage amortization table in
Excel similar to Table 2.1,
amortization of the loan, and the loan balance showing the interest
for each year. payment, the
c. What fraction of
your initial loan payment is interest?
loan has been paid off after 10 What about the last
years? Why is the fraction less than half? payment? What fraction of tne
CHALLENGE
37. Future values and continuous
that with discrete
compounding Here are two useful rules of
compounding
the time it takes for an thumb. The
investment to double in value is "Rule 72
of Says
rate (in percent). The "Rule of
69 says that with continuous roughly 72/interest
exactly 69.3/interest rate (in percent). compounding the time that it takes to double d
a. If theannually compounded interest rate is 12%, use the Rule of 72
before your money doubles. Now work it to calculate roughly how long it takes
out exactly.
b. Can you prove the Rule of 69?