Technological systems methodologies using simulation
By1: Nelson Esteban Escarraga Escobar
The article talks about methodologies for decision-making in uncertain environments where
the objective is to predict the moment when a new technological system reaches superiority
compared to the current system, using quantitative and qualitative techniques. For this, a
combined simulation-based method is used, customized for the challenges of system
innovations such as the electric bus, E-Bus in Berlin, which is part of a feasibility study
where they propose the replacement of conventional diesel buses by a system of Electric
bus is an example of a very complex innovation process, because the vehicle only achieves
its added value, compared to conventional buses.
The foresight method developed supports the decision-making process of the different
stakeholders in the public transport sector, using the results to plan the introduction of
electric buses in the city. While the general methodology is based on an evaluation of the
system by key performance indicators (KPI). Simulating KPI, the future behavior of low
systems where changing boundary conditions can be predicted, taking uncertainties into
account.
First, activities such as technology exploration, patent analysis or future workshops are
identified through the anticipation of exploratory technologies. The methodology can be
applied to any system technology. If the future performance of the system cannot be
predicted by prototyping experiments, we apply a system simulation technique. Future
developments of the system's KPI are influenced by the boundary conditions, represented
by the input parameters of the simulation. These are, for example, economic variables,
technological variables, durability and ecological factors.
18thSemester, Faculty of Systems Engineering, Universidad Piloto de Colombia Alto
Magdalena Sectional, Academic Space Simulation Girardot November 08, 2021.
System engineering provides a set of tools that support a system analysis that is necessary
to configure a suitable simulation model in which the elements of the system, their
relationship and input / output must be identified. The design structure matrix method,
which provides a methodology for structuring complex systems into interrelated
subsystems and components. The stochastic model for calculating TCO is structured in the
following five main categories: cost, financing, operation, infrastructure, and emissions.
Each of these categories contains subcategories that have more or less influence on the
TCO and its uncertainty.
A selection is made by focusing the knowledge of internal or external experts specialized in
a particular field can be used even if these experts do not have an understanding of the
entire system. This technique allows an efficient search for information about it, but this
can be problematic due to different assumptions made. Therefore, a pre-definition of basic
assumptions and a consistency check is vital to ensure high validity.
When the simulation cannot be calculated using analytical approaches, the Monte Carlo
method is applied, which estimates the real statistical distribution of the KPI by iterative of
random experiments and the law of large numbers. The number of iterations required
depends on the precision required and the extent of possible results. The greater the number
of iterations, the greater the simulated distribution directed to the real distribution, this
requires special software tools that support stochastic modeling of input parameters,
random number generation, professional data analysis and graphical representation of
results.
Information Management System (TIMS) provides a graphical representation of the
simulation results and allows systematic deviation from a technological roadmap with
accompanying resource planning. In the case of multidimensional indicator systems,
questions about interpretation become important. One possible solution is the aggregation
of multiple indicators to a higher indicator that represents overall performance. However,
this raises the question of reasonable weighting.
To develop the roadmap, we start from the moment when the new system becomes
favorable and retrospective, when it is necessary to start the development of the
subsystems. The results are to be fixed on a graphical roadmap where the analysis yields
the findings as the added value, the possible applications and the limitations. The
methodology is beneficial in projects with high investments, high risk technologies and
long-term product development processes. In addition, the method is suitable for adjusting
the position of the company in the market.
References
Gohlich, F. S.-D. (2013). Foresighting new technological systems using simulation -
appliction on e-mobility. Germany: technische Universitat Berlin.
