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Iv. Assignment

This document provides instructions to use quantitative forecasting methods on two datasets: 1) An 8 period time series dataset to compute forecasts using naive method, 3-period moving average, 3-period weighted moving average, 4-period moving average, and 4-period weighted moving average. 2) A 9 year enrollment dataset for a university to forecast 2015 enrollment using 3-year weighted moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and 4-year weighted moving average.

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59 views4 pages

Iv. Assignment

This document provides instructions to use quantitative forecasting methods on two datasets: 1) An 8 period time series dataset to compute forecasts using naive method, 3-period moving average, 3-period weighted moving average, 4-period moving average, and 4-period weighted moving average. 2) A 9 year enrollment dataset for a university to forecast 2015 enrollment using 3-year weighted moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and 4-year weighted moving average.

Uploaded by

Iisha karmela Alday
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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IV.

ASSIGNMENT

1. Use quantitative forecast methods for the data shown below:

Compute for:

A. Naive Method

B. Three-period Moving Average

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45 43
n

45 + 44 + 41
F =
8 3
130
= 3
= 43.3333333 or 43

C. Three-period Weighted Moving Average

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45
n
(24x1) (34x2) (36x3)
24 68 108

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24 + 68 + 108
WMA =
D. Four-period Moving Average 6
200
Period 1 =2 3 4 5 6 7 8
6
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45 42
n = 33.3333333 or 33

F =
458 + 44 + 41 + 37
4
167
= 4

D. Four-period Weighted Moving Average

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45
n
(24x1) (34x2) (36x3) (4x37)
24 68 108 148

WMA =
24 + 68 + 108 + 148
10
348
=
10

2. Suppose that the University had the following data of its growth of enrollment from 2006 - 2014.
Year Enrollment
2006 3000
2007 3200
2008 3600
2009 3650
2010 4000
2011 4200
2012 4300
2013 4410
2014 4520
A. Forecast the 2015 enrollment using three-year weighted moving average forecast.
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Enrollment 3000 3200 3600 3650 4000 4200 4300 4410 4520 3367
(1x3000) (2x3200) (3x3600)
Forecast 3000 6400 10800

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B. Using smooth a = 0.30, forecast the 2015 enrollment.

== 4059.43104+138.170688
= 4197.60173 or4198

C. Use four-year weighted moving average from 2010 to 2015.

Year 2006 2007 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
9
Enrollment 3000 3200 3600 365 4000 4200 4300 4410 4520
0
(1x4000) (2x4200) (3x4300) (4x4410)
WMA =
Forecast 4000+ 8000+ 12900+ 17640
10
=

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