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DISSERTATION PROJECT REPORT

ON

“THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON THE INDIAN

ECONOMY”

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of

MBA Integrated degree

Submitted by: -

AARSHVARDHAN SINGH

MBA- INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

Batch- (2020-22)

Under the guidance of;

Prof. Animesh Singh

Head of Department, School Business Studies

SHARDA UNIVERSITY, GREATER NOIDA-201306

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CERTIFICATE FROM COLLEGE

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STUDENT DECLARATION

I, Aarshvardhan Singh hereby declare that this submission is my own work and
that to the best of my knowledge and belief, it contains no material previously
publish or written by another person nor material which has been accepted for
the award of a degree or diploma of any university or institute of higher learning,
except due acknowledgement has been made in the text.

Place: Greater Noida

AarshvardhanSingh

Date:10-04-2022
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This chance is a significant step forward in my professional growth for me. I would also like
to express my gratitude to Mr. Animesh Singh”, who directed me to develop an
understanding of the application of management concepts into the real world. This time we
have decided to incorporate Industry mentorship.

I want to express my thanks and appreciation to Bhuven Puri and Prashasti Gururani,
Sharda university student alumni, with their direction and motivation in undertaking and
effectively completing the Dissertation. He not only has assisted me in picking the subject,
but they already demonstrated unwavering belief in my power to acquire on a rather fantastic
theme and effectively finish it.

This Dissertation I made was a wonderful option for knowledge and career growth.
Therefore, I conceive extremely lucky that I am part of it.

I am also glad for the opportunities to engage far too many lovely individuals and experts that
guided me.
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PREFACE

This proposal is a unique work by Aarshvardhan Singh. The MBA Dissertation, of which this
proposition is a section, got research morals endorsement from the Sharda University.

MBA Dissertation Title Chosen: THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON THE INDIAN

ECONOMY

In this Dissertation we are trying to find out he following implications:

1. The objective of the audit is to play out a survey examination of the macroeconomic
impact of the various epidemics and pandemic which have happened from one side of the
planet to the other starting around 1918.

2. The concentrate moreover means to guess the impact of Covid 19 on the Indian economy
considering various articles appropriated by well-known business examiners.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CERTIFICATE FROM COLLEGE............................................................................................................2

STUDENT DECLARATION.....................................................................................................................1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...........................................................................................................................2
PREFACE....................................................................................................................................................3
CHAPTER – 1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................1
CHAPTER– 2 LITERATURE REVIEW....................................................................................................3
CHAPTER – 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................................................................................5
CHAPTER – 4 ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................................5
CHAPTER – 5 CONCLUSION................................................................................................................12
BIBLIOGRAPHY.....................................................................................................................................15
PLAGIARISM REPORT..........................................................................................................................16
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CHAPTER – 1

INTRODUCTION

Covid known as COVID - 19 is a profoundly irresistible infection which has a place with the
SARS COV-2 infection family. Scientists and Doctors have found this infection
exceptionally transmittable in nature and has in this manner usurped in spreading its wings
everywhere the globe in an issue of not many days. The infection spreads transcendently
from direct contact with a tainted individual's spit drops when he hacks or through release
from nose when sniffles. Moreover, the specialists have identified that the infection can
additionally travel by means of articles as it has a daily existence going from 3 hrs. to 48 hrs.
on different articles. There is no corroborative concentrate regarding whether or not the
infection is airborne. The most ideal way prescribed to forestall and break the Covid tie is to
be well informed with regards to COVID-19 infection and the different methods of its spread.
The examinations up until this point notice that individuals should rehearse fundamental
respiratory decorum like while hacking mouth ought to be covered by the elbow. It is
likewise suggested by the clinical clique to safeguard ourselves as well as other people by
cleaning up, not contacting our faces and to disinfect our hands with a liquor-based sanitizer.

The COVID-19 infection is associated with the invulnerability remainder of the human body.
Studies till now have affirmed that individuals with frail insusceptibility fall simple prey to
the infection. Individuals with frail insusceptibility incorporate elderly folks’ individuals or
individuals with prior illnesses like heart illness, disease, diabetes, asthmatic or other
respiratory issues.

Cases show that individuals with solid insusceptibility have encountered gentle respiratory
ailment and have recuperated from the enormous infection.

At present there is no inoculation or treatment for COVID-19 in spite of the world's best
researchers from US, China, Cuba, India and so forth chipping away at it. The main treatment
accessible and recommended is separation, rehearsing respiratory manners and keeping up
with cleanliness. With the lap of the 21st Century, the world economy has seen a gigantic
development in the get line exchange and the travel industry throughout recent many years.
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This observable modification has been the aftereffect of the kickoff of International
boundaries by nations to expand trades, welcome imports and worldwide venture from
various regions of the planet. The kickoff of worldwide lines has not just expanded the
income created by manifolds through the matter of import and product yet in addition the
travel industry has developed huge amounts at a time. Incidentally, this coin has an awful
side to it. Any regrettable monetary effect in any nation spreads its shock waves through the
worldwide lines to different nations additionally. The COVID - 19 financial shocks set off in
China as a royal community has accelerated its quakes around the world and subsequently
surrounding in the feeling of dread toward worldwide downturn.

Goals of this dissertation:

1. The goal of the review is to play out a review investigation of the macroeconomic effect of
the different pestilences and pandemic which have happened all around the world beginning
around 1918.

2. The concentrate likewise means to conjecture the effect of Covid 19 on the Indian
economy in view of different articles distributed by famous business analysts.

3. To analyse Post-pandemic impact on various industries

4. To examine governments initiative to combat the pandemic and bringing economy to

normal.
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CHAPTER– 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

Martin et al, 1999. The specialists in their review have analyzed the predictable financial
consequence of next pandemic in the US. They likewise chalked down the advantages of any
intercession intended to diminish the effect and furthermore suggested the advancement
public and state level intends to react to any future flu pandemic.

Jong-Wha Lee and Warwick J, 2003. The creator has laid accentuation on the way that
SARS-an infection having intense respiratory disorder fundamentally affects the political and
monetary changes in China. It likewise features the deficits in the wellbeing administrations
of China.

Ilan and Sharlan, 2003. The review expresses that the SARS pandemic of 2003 came about
in emotional decrease in air travel and the travel industry and neighborliness industry. The
specialist has fundamentally examined that the public authority's mediation systems are cost-
effective and their intercession may adjust the social reactions to prompt more positive
results.

Richard, 2004. The paper concentrates on the impacts of SARS pandemic on the economy of
Hong Kong. The main effect was conceived on the grimace interest of the items and
administrations because of the low utilization levels. There was seen an extraordinary
decrease in the help business connected with the travel industry and air travel in the short run.

Jong-Wha Warwick, 2004. The focal point of this paper is to make a worldwide appraisal of
monetary expenses of the pandemic SARS. Their appraisal depends on the G-cubed model.
The analyst imparts an insight that the financial expenses from a plague illness, for example,
SARS are worldwide in nature not just as a result of the reduction in the travel industry yet
additionally in light of the fact that a monetary shock ventures quick over borders due to the
broadlinkages of exchange and monetary linkages across worldwide boundaries.

Hans, 2006. The scientist is of the assessment that assuming the populace has restricted
resistance levels then the effect even of an influenza with extremely ordinary qualities in
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terms of the infection being infectious can leave the humanity devasted with large number of
setbacks.

Thomas, 2007. The report gives a foundation of the Spanish Flu of 1918 which guaranteed
50 million lives. The information investigations the death rates relying upon the distinction of
race, pay or spot of home. The wellsprings of information are proof on the monetary impacts
which were announced in driving paper articles during the pandemic.

Marcus et al., 2008. The analyst in his paper endeavors at assessing the potential cost to the
worldwide economy by joining the infection boundaries and arranging arrangements of the
govt. The approaches displayed incorporate diminished work supply because of horribleness,
mortality and school conclusion.

George et.al, 2011.The specialists show that the effect of a pandemic with high
contamination rate rather than high destructiveness rates will be seriously obliterating. They
too inferred that nations with higher monetary reconciliation internationally will be more
unequivocally impacted when contrasted with their partners

W. Qiu et al, 2016. This study investigates and analyzes the past writing for concentrating on
the ideas of past pandemics giving a rundown of the negative outcomes on the worldwide
economy, security, wellbeing and federal retirement aide coming about from these episodes.

Heesoo et.al, 2019 The review was directed to gauge the effect of the MERS pandemic on
the travel industry and accommodation industry. The specialist has utilized occasional
autoregressive incorporated moving normal models on the information of nonresidents
appearance also different administrations utilized during the time of flare-up from June2015
to June 2016.

The Hindu Business Line, 2020 The prestigious domestic newspaper has highlighted that
the UN report has calculated and of $348 million on the Indian economy. Additionally the
report indicates that India is among the 15 economies which have been mostly strained due to
the corona virus pandemic.

Karen and Preston, 2020. The researcher in his article has laid emphasis on the fact that the
economic impact of this quick global spread of the COVID 19 will lead to stock market
hazards and also may actuate global recession.
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CHAPTER – 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The examination depends on optional information which is gathered from distributed sources
for example, research papers, articles in regarded day by day papers, business magazines,
reports of driving steadiness firms, government official sites. This article will look at the
writing for the idea and history of pandemics, giving a sufficient rundown of key ascribes
with additional conversation on the obstructive outcomes on wellbeing, economy, social and
worldwide security yielded by pandemics furthermore infection upsurges
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CHAPTER – 4

ANALYSIS

 Past Epidemics and Pandemics:

1918 saw the World War I end with the spread of Spanish Flu, the deadliest influenza with
most elevated demise losses which added up to 50 million. The epic focus of the influenza
isn't affirmed however it is accepted that it began in US and cost the world economy a
deficiency of $3 trillion. 1957 was tormented by Asian influenza which began in China came
about in roughly70000 passing’s and a deficiency of 2% to the world GDP. 1968 red covered
the destructive Hong kong influenza which started from Hong kong consuming approx. 1
million living souls and costing the worldwide GDP a deficiency of $14.8billion.

2003 saw the dangerous influx of SARS which again started from China with just
916passing’s yet an enormous expense for the GDP with a deficiency of $33 billion. 2009
had H1N1 originating from Mexico generally known as Swine Flu which prompteda 1.5%
misfortune to the worldwide economy with a deficiency of 2,84,00 living souls. 2014 - 15
had Ebola which began from Guinea saw a deficiency of $2.2 billion and11,325 passing’s.
2020 has been cleared over by Corona infection (Covid-19)

 Coronavirus Pandemic? Consequence of our EGO.

Amusingly, the state-run administrations of different nations have disregarded the advices of
their well being offices, their researchers, their scientists and are currently addressing the cost
of their self-image through their falling economy. Created nations like United Kingdom, US
of America, Italy the entire of Europe have lost their kin and their economy to the COVID-19
pandemic simply because of the presumptuous mentalities on their clinical strength.
However, in the process they have played self-destructive by overlooking the UK Health
Departments' report distributed on 01 Mar 2005 on Influenzas pandemic alternate course of
action.
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 Features of the report:

Investigation of past scourges and pandemics feature that the possibilities of the new
pandemic starting from China and Hong kong is exceptionally high. The scientists have
obviously called attention to that UK might have the option to defer the infiltration of the
infection in the nations limits via fixing the boundaries yet cannot contain it. The spread of
the infection will be quick to the nations having shipping lanes from the beginning nation.
Present day travel might bring about wide global spread much more quickly. The report has
likewise proposed that the Influenza sway will keep going for 3-5 months and there
additionally might be ensuing waves which might be at week by week or month to month
stretches.

 Worldwide Economy:

Aside from the sad outcomes of COVID-19 on the human existence, the effect on the Global
economy will be enormous and the expense as indicated by a report of the UN's exchange
and improvement organization UNCTAD, may go up to $1trillion in 2020. The dial back
anticipated in the worldwide economy is gauge to be under 2% by the office.

 Chinese Economy:

China the epic-focus of numerous flu infection is currently the epic-focal point of COVID-
19pandemic with its first case recognized in the long stretch of December 2019
contaminating a sum of 81,620 individuals with a loss of life of 3,322. As indicated by
Fareed Zakaria, driving US international concerns master, China has dealt with the COVID-
19 pandemic in the most ideal way conceivable by securing, fixing and broad disinfection of
the impacted regions..Inspire of the worldwide recognition of the control endeavors of the
Chinese government and the lockdown cycle being facilitated with life attempting to
standardize after the lockdown of 90 days, the strain on the economy were obviously
apparent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
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AREA % CHANGE IN JAN -FEB 2020

INTEREST IN FIXED ASSETS -24.5
RETAIL SALES -20.5
MODERN PRODUCTION -13.5
TRADES -15.9
ADMINISTRATIONS -13

As per the studies led in China by Beijing Financial firm, the economy is in for a twofold
headed shock:

1. Homegrown Demand: Analysis of the information gathered by the overview showed

that individuals because of mental dread, insolvencies and employment misfortunes will
eliminate their ways of managing money.
2. Abroad Demand: Since China's significant income is from sending out products
fabricated in its enterprises will confront a significant misfortune in the volume of sends
out as the nations all around the globe are confronting the emergency of this flare-up and
are in lock down state.

 Risk on the Global Horizon:

The consuming inquiry which emerges is "Whether any remaining impacted nations will
follow a similar way of falling economy? Will the Global downturn set in?" Other nations are
currently feeling the blow of the infection for instance Canada has as of now recorded
1,000,000 individuals applying for joblessness benefits.

Infection hit nations like Italy and Spain who have effectively recorded high joblessness
throughout the most recent years are hoping to arrive at the very low GDP levels. In-
demonstrate hatred for that it is ahead of schedule to quantify and check the degree and
seriousness of the monetary harm to the world economy the IMF has gauge a worldwide
downturn in2020. The UN has assessed that COVID-19 will cause a $2 trillion opening in the
worldwide income.

 Effect on Indian Economy:

With the lofty expansion in the quantity of instances of Covid affected individuals, almost
162nations have gone into closed down. Organizations across the world are working
under an unnerving anxiety toward the breakdown of the world economy. Independent of
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the reality whether the nation was in the class of created or fostering what is happening
before the spread of Covid 19 was horrid and presently it has moved towards a startling
situation of an incredibly unpredictable market. The significant wellsprings of exchange
of a nation are its imports and products. China is the third biggest accomplice
contributing in the product and import exchange of India. Any troublesome effect on the
Chinese business will have undulating impacts on the Indian economy.

 China's Share in India's Imports

The reliance of India on China for bringing in items is broad in examination to imports from
rest of the world. Imports recorded from China in the long stretch of Jan2020 have been a
monstrous figure of $70 billion followed by US. The financial experts and exchange experts
trust that a recognizable fall of 13.7% might be found in the import figures.

With regards to trades, China represents a 5% portion of Indian products in the following
areas specifically plastics, cotton, metals, synthetics and so on. China has held a significant
offer bookkeeping to 10.3% of the commodities from India as far as unrefined substance.

India's economy is as of now being troubled by the past lull. Because of the dangers of
Corona virus, Moody's has anticipated a significant destruction in India's development rate
2020which might be the slowest development seen in the previous ten years. The most
noteworthy affected areas will be the travel industry, flying, cordiality and exchange.
Different areas will likewise be feeling the undulated impacts.

 Effects on Oil and fuel industry:

Experts at Rystad Energy have proposed seaward labor force in US could observer an
occupation cut up to 20%. The UNCTAD have recommended that the fall in the oil costs is a
after effect of the Covid infection alarm and furthermore the value battle between the nations.
The fast expansion in the infection cases worldwide alongside the lockdown of global borders
and further shut down of all methods of movement have brought about the enormous fall in
the interest for oil and fuel. Anyway, this value fall in the raw petroleum might result as a
surprisingly beneficial development for economies like India who are occupied with bringing
in unrefined petroleum.
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 Effect on Tourism Industry:

The Indian the travel industry has seen walloping development throughout the most recent
ten years and has been recorded as 9.2% of the complete GDP of India in 2018 i.e. $240
billion. This industry has additionally been a significant benefactor in the business insights by
adding to 8.1% positions in India. The area was anticipated a development of 6.8%every year
before the infection sway. The Indian clinical the travel industry area was too assessed to be
valued at $8 billion by 2020. This large number of appraisals have been upset by the extreme
impacts of the Covid lockdowns all around the globe in roughly 162nations. An article in
Financial Express India has gauges the travel industry would be at loss of something like $28
billion. A potential employment cutback of approx. 70% locked-in in this area is being
anticipated. The Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism and Accommodation (FAITH),
the umbrella body of the business, has anticipated insolvencies, conclusion of business and
mass joblessness.

 Effect on Automobile Industry:

The Indian auto industry is anticipating that significant misfortunes due should secure and
closure of creation of the businesses. Many car parts were being brought into India from
China which have been seriously affected due to the impermanent shut down of the
businesses in China prior and afterward the movement lockdown in India. The business is
expecting a deficiency of $2 billion in income in the period of March alone. This might bring
about the cut down in positions and compensations likewise by and large. The beginning
appraisals are exceptionally alarming yet in the event that the public authority mediates
opportune and upholds the business with changes then they could possibly contain the
destruction.

 Impact on Financial Markets:

The G7 countries met in March 2020 and examined the awareness of financial exchanges to
the conservative effect of Covid-19. The financial backers any expectations of a declaration
of approaches for containing the adverse consequence were whipped to the center with no
strategy being reported. The stocks reacted quickly by falling consistently and disintegrating
away significant abundance of the financial backers. The US market in mid walk noticed just
plain terrible exchanging the beyond 124 years. The Indian market additionally saw a 20%
drop in benchmark files making the Indian value market enter the domain of Bear market.
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BSE Sensex saw a sardonic fall in the financial exchange on March 23, 2020 due to the
Covid dread across the worldwide market. The Sensex had fallen 3500 focuses to approx. 26,
000.On the other hand, the NSE Nifty fell 11%. The Indian market opened with an optimistic
outlook with promising signs from the unfamiliar business sectors just to crash and burn with
the unfamiliar financial backers ceaselessly pulling out cash from the Indian business sectors.

 Effects on Banking Industry and NPA:

The financial examiner, the RBI, the Finance service all are anxious with the alarm of getting
the infection yet more than that they are stressed over the rate expansion in the NPA's
because of the tremendous adverse consequence of Covid 19 on the various areas of
enterprises. Different factors, for example, lock down, lower utilization rate, higher setbacks,
higher work disintegration higher costs on wellbeing, decrease of imports and products and
so forth are without a doubt going to bring down the monetary strength of the organizations,
firms and people. This will bring about lower reimbursing limit of borrowers and further
making a drawn-out sway fair and square of NPA in banks.

 Human outcomes:

Other than the monetary figures the general public endures significant fallouts which
incorporate the human expenses of the pandemic including passing of precious once, the
psychological injury and the actual aggravation of the contamination. The effect of a
questionable future is negatively affecting the persistence level individuals, baffling them to a
level past creative mind. This disappointment has brought about expanded family battles.
This apprehension about monetary vulnerability, the sensation of being cut off from society,
the sensation of frenzy, the apprehension about deficiency of minimum essentials has
generally prompted mental pressure.
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Views on Impact of The Pandemic on Indian Economy:

 Economists believe that due to combative monetary policies by global central banks since
the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic has led to income of foreign capital into rising
markets, including India.

 Despite that economy rehabilitation in developed nations building strength on the back of
monumental vaccination, central banks across the developed world have indicated
squeezing of their monetary policies.

 Experts believe that while policy normalization will deliberate on asset prices and
currency markets as a result catalyzing capital outpours from emerging markets, the
impact of quantitative restrictions on India is going to be restricted around this time.

 Ecstatic volume of foreign exchange premised with the Reserve Bank of India (which
amounts approximately 14 months of India's import over) will provide much needed
rebounding to economy from any gusty arising from restrictive process this time as
compared to 2013 de-escalate scene.

 The currency current account position, effective interference by the RBI in currency
forwards market, IPO related flows and likely inclusion of India in global bond indices
should help curbing any significant devaluing partiality on the Indian Rupee.

 At last, the economists evoked that the area of utilizing domestic currency for trade
payments could prove to be worthy noticeable during this process.

 Alongside, the country should abide to instigate static longer term capital inflows by
developing favourable environment for investments.
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CHAPTER – 5 CONCLUSION

(a) Findings

In this research surveys based on several industries analyses are undertaken by the expert
surveyors. The surveys are divided into two parts namely : Part A and Part B. The Part A
deals with gradual unlocking of the economy. And Part B deals with the release and
perpetration of the economic boosting suite. The data retrieve were quite a surprise. When
asked the business utilisation post unlocking with regard to current and expected scenarios,
the findings in (%) were 17% were those with current capacity that constitute above 80 and
26% were having expected capacity utilisation of business.

The positive move of unlocking of the economy has an impact on a company's

increase in exports up to 13% only while remaining 78% respondents have no clue of the
impact while the 9% respondents were of the view that exports have increased not more than
10%. When it comes to impact of unlocking on the company's order book there were 25%
increase only and the rest 75% have felt no impact. The unlocking impact on company's cash
flows were only increase by 21% but 79% were with the opinion that it had no positive
impact.

The company's supply chain post pandemic has positive impact of only 29% and
71% were aloof. In this phase several mergers and acquisitions have taken place but very
agreed that post pandemic has changed the landscape of the industries. The 75% perspective
hold that they have long term impact and be felt in between 6-12 months while those with 6%
hold that they be considering within 0-3 months. The perspective with regard to post gradual
opening-up impact on FDI, ODI were 67% considering it on long term basis i.e. 6-12 months
on the other hand 12% considering looking immediately i.e. 0-3 months and the rest 21%
considering medium term i.e. 3-6 months.

The continuous challenges that have impacts on business post unlocking in

percentage would be 60% for managing costs, 59% for weak demand, 57% for financial
liquidity, 40% for supply chain issues, 43% for manpower availability, and 15% for others.
But when it comes to talking about time period when the economy would return to normalcy,
57% are of the view of 12 months, 24% think that economy can take 9 months while another
19% are of the view that it will take 6 months' time. The post pandemic interest rates on debts
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have a cold blow on 23% populace saying "Yes" and deep influence on 77% saying "No" that
interest rates reductions have benefitted companies post pandemic. During the pandemic the
government introduced many stimulus economic packages to bridge the gap. The survey
found that 30% populace sayings are that due to introduction of stimulus economic package
there is inducement of 10% finance costs, 17% were of the view that there is reduction and
34% were aloof while 19% have the felt the impact by increase in 10% of overall finance
costs.

The lockdown caused many small and medium businesses to get shut down as
a result of which many workers have to migrate to other places in search of jobs. But, in the
post pandemic phase when the workers returning back to their usual place of work, the survey
has found that 53% are of the view that workers will return back to the work place but 16%
are on the negative side while 31% have no idea. As far as receiving Income tax refunds from
government is concerned only 36% of companies' people agree that they have received the
funds while another 64% are not totally agree with it.

While studying about impact of the Pandemic on which sector mostly get
affected it Power sector by 39% following it is Defence sector by 26% then Civil Aviation
sector by 10% and then Space by 5% and Atomic Energy by 2%.

b) Recommendations

In the pursuit of making economy growth vibrant the government should plan certain actions,
implement certain schemes in order to bridge the gap for the betterment of the economy.
Following are the recommendations that needed to be given priority.

 The migrants should be concessions for their travelling to home or returning back to
workplace and that should be arranged by state and central government.

 The government should organize for food and housing close to work sites/factories.
Should intent for subsidised meal programs for the incoming workers for the next 6-12
months.
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 Low cost housing on rent to be encouraged and medical assistance to be provided to all the
workers.

 The government should encourage small scale industry projects in place nearest to
workers.

 A clear policy for lock-down opening up and provide information much before.

 There is a need of cash outflows to be promoted and money to be put into the bank
accounts of migrant workers.

 The government should set up places for testing and isolation for the migrant worker who
turned positives and they need to be cured of. This will help boosting the morale of all
workers and employees.

 The community leaders should take a lead in setting up campaign for creating awareness
and spreading the messages stressing safety work environment.

 Setting up of portals state administrative for migrants registered with such portals.
Industries in the state of residence of such workers can use this portal to engage workers.

 Government should collect data of their employment and residence which will authorize
the government to contact and provide food and basic amenities and supports in pandemic
like emergencies when they really need support.
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