Lecture-11: Discrete Probability Distributions
Prepared By: Mashfiqul Huq Chowdhury
September 18, 2020
Probability Distributions
Discrete random variables take on only a finite or countable infinite number of values. They are
often used to describe the number of occurrences of a specific event in a fixed number of trials
or a fixed unit time or space. Amongest many, we focus on a few popular discrete probability
distributions which serve as models for a large number of practical applications:
• Bernoulli Distribution
• Binomial Distribution
• Poisson Distribution
Bernoulli Trial
The Bernoulli trial is an experiment with only two possible outcomes (a success, 1, or a failure,
0), with positive probabilities p and q = 1–p.
Examples
• Flipping a coin (Head or Tail)
• Results of a pregnancy (girl or boy)
• Hitting a target; the outcome is hit or miss
Characteristics of Binomial Experiment
• Consists of n identical Bernoulli trials.
• Each trial results in one of two outcomes, success (S) or failure (F ).
• The probability of success on a single trial is p and remains constant from trial to trial;
the probability of failure is q = 1–p.
• The trials are independent.
• The main variable of interest is x, the number of successes in n trials.
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Binomial Probability Distribution
Suppose a binomial experiment consists of n trials and constant probability of success on a
given trial (p). Now Binomial distribution can be defined as the probability of x successes in
n trials is:
n x n−x
P (X = x) = p q ; x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , n; p + q = 1.
x
In a Binomial distribution
• Mean, µ = np.
• Variance, σ 2 = npq
• Mean > Variance
Exercises
1. A marksman hits a target 80% of the time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
the probability that
(a) Exactly 3 shots hit the target? Answer: 0.2048
(b) More than 3 shots hit the target? Answer: 0.7373
(c) What are the mean and standard deviation for hits a target? Answer: 4, 0.89
2. A television commercial claims that 1 out of 5 of “today’s marriages” began as an online
relationship. Assuming that this is true, calculate the following for eight randomly
selected marriages.”
(a) The probability that at least one began online. Answer: 0.832
(b) The probability that two or three began online. Answer: 0.441
(c) What is the probability that exactly one began online? Answer: 0.336
3. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.40. If 5 people are
known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
(a) Exactly 3 people survive? Answer: 0.2304
(b) At least 2 people survive? Answer: 0.66304
(c) At most 2 survive? Answer: 0.65376
(d) Calculate expected number and standard deviation of people survive?
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Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is useful when n is large and p is small and when the independent
variables occur over a period of time.
Examples
• The number of calls received by a switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a day.
• The number of traffic accidents at a given intersection during a given time period.
Characteristics of Poisson Experiment
• The random variable X is the number of occurrences of an event over some interval (i.e.,
length, area, volume, period of time, etc.)
• The occurrences occur randomly.
• The occurrences are independent of one another.
• The average number of occurrences over an interval is known.
Poisson Probability Distribution
Let x is the number of events that occur in a period of time or space during which an
average of λ such events can be expected to occur. Now Poisson distribution can be defined
for parameter, λ:
e−λ λx
P (X = x) = ; x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , ∞; λ > 0.
x!
In a Poisson distribution
• Mean(µ) = Variance(σ 2 ) = λ = np
• Mean=Variance
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Exercises
1. The average number of traffic accidents on a certain section of highway is two per week.
Find the probability of
(a) Exactly one accident during a one-week period. Answer: 0.2707
(b) 8 or more accidents happen? Answer: 0.001
2. A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any
given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following.
(a) At most 3 calls. Answer: 0.6472
(b) At least 3 calls. Answer: 0.5768
(c) 5 or more calls Answer: 0.1842
3. The number of demands for taxi’s to a taxi firm follows Poisson distribution with on
average 4 demands every 30 minutes. Find the probability of
(a) No demand in 30 minutes. Answer: 0.0183
(b) 1 Demand in 1 hour. Answer: 0.00268
(c) Fewer than two demands in 15 minutes. Answer: 0.406
