4

Probability
Skills check 4. a) H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
11 1
1. a) b) T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
12 6
2. HH, HT, TH, TT b)
1 2 3 4 5 6

Exercise 4.1 H 2 3 4 5 6 7

1. a) A{1, 2, 4} B{1, 4} C{2, 3, 5}  D{3, 6} T 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 1 1 1
b) , , , c) 2 5. a)
2 3 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6
1
d) e) A ∩ D = ∅ ⇒ Prob = 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
6 2 2 4 6 8 10 12
1
f) A ∪ B = {1, 2, 4} ⇒ Prob = 3 3 6 9 12 15 18
2
2. a) A′ is a consonant is chosen 4 4 8 12 16 20 24

A = {A, I, E}  B = {B}

b) 5 5 10 15 20 25 30
C = {A, B, C, D, E, G, I, M }  D = {C, E } 6 6 12 18 24 30 36
1 1 8 2
c) , , , d) {A, I, E} 2 1 1
3 9 9 9 b) i) P(3) = = ii) P(5) =
36 18 18
1 1
e) f) P(A ∩ D) = 4 1 1
3 9 P(6) =
iii) = iv) P(10) =
4 36 9 18
g) P(A ∪ B) =
9
3. a,b) your results 6. a)
1 2 3 4 5 6
On average 10 times
c) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
d) Student’s own answer 2 1 2 2 2 2 2
Your results
e)
3 1 2 3 3 3 3
4. b) On average five times 4 1 2 3 4 4 4
On average between 3 and 4 times
d) 5 1 2 3 4 5 5

Exercise 4.2 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

1. VV, OO, CC, VO, VC, OC, OV, CV, CO 7 3 1 1

b) P(3) =   P(5) = =   P(6) =
2. VO, VC, OC, OV, CV CO 36 36 12 36

3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7. a)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 X 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 X 5 6 7 8 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
3 4 5 X 7 8 9 2 1 0 1 2 3 4
4 5 6 7 X 9 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
5 6 7 8 9 X 11 4 3 2 1 0 1 2
6 7 8 9 10 11 X 5 4 3 2 1 0 1
4 2 2 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
a) = b) 0
= c)
30 15 30 15
6 1 2 1
P(3) =
b) =   P(5) = =   P(6) = 0
36 6 36 18

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 1
Exercise 4.3 4. Sample space is HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH,
30 15 THT, TTH, TTT
1. a) =
64 32 1 2 1 1
25 a) b) = c)
5 B BB 8 8 4 4
8 64
5. 2
W WWW 720
24
5 B 8
3
8 3 15 8 36
G BG W G WWG 720
8 64
3 36
5 15 3 R WWR 720
B GB 9 8
3 8 64
8 G 3 36
W WGW 720
3 8
2
3 9 8 24
9 W G G WGG 720
8 G GG
64
3 36
3 R WGR 720
8
30 15 9
b) =
56 28 3
W WRW 720
36
8
20 3
4 B BB 8 36
56 R G WRG 720
7
2 24
R WRR 720
B 4 8
5
10
8 3 15 3 36
7 G BG W GWW 720
56 8
2
5 15 8 24
B GB W G GWG 720
3 7 56
8 3 36
G 4 R GWR 720
8
9
2 6 4 24
7 G GG W GGW 720
56 3 2 8
1
10 9 8 6
G G G GGG 720
2. Let G = use gym at least once a week 3 18
3 R GGR 720
8
9
1 1
G
5
MG
3 4 36
W GRW 720
8
2
8 18
Men R G GRG 720
3
2 2 2 18
5 ~G M ~G R GRR 720
3 5 1 3 8
10
3 3 36
3 G WG W RWW 720
2 10 8
4 3
5 Women 8 36
W G RWG 720
2 24
4 R RWR 720
1 1 9
8
4 ~G W ~G
10 1
4 36
W RGW 720
3 8
2 1 3 1 2
a) b) + = R
9
G 8
G RGG 720
18
5 5 10 2
2 2 18
R RGR 720
3. Let N be the event ‘starts a new job’ 9 8

F be the event ‘is fired from a job’ 4

W RRW 720
24
8
3
F 0.0018 8 18
0.03 R G RRG 720
1 6
N R RRR 720
8
0.06 0.97 ~F 0.0582
3 24 1
a) b) P(WWW) = =
0.03
F 0.0282 10 720 30
0.94
~N 36 1
c) marked on tree diagram – 6 paths all =
720 20
0.97
~F 0.9118 6 3
so P(all different) = =
20 10
a) 0.9118 b) 0.0864 c) 0.0018

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 2
Exercise 4.4 If A is the event that Student A does the
homework and B is the event that Student B does
1. a) Die 0.19
0.2 the homework:
a) P( B ) = 0.72 + 0.1 = 0.82
Wear
0.95 0.8
b)
P ( A ∩ B ) = 0.6 × 0.82 = 0.492
Survive 0.76
c) P( A ∩ B ′) = 0.6 × 0.18 = 0.108
Die 0.03
0.05 0.6
~Wear P( A′∩ B ) = 0.4 × 0.82 = 0.328
P(one student does homework)=0.492+0.072=0.564
0.4
Survive 0.02
0.328
P( A|one student does homework)= = 0.752 (3s.f .)
P{no belt + survived} = 0.02 (2%)
b) 0.436
4. w
2. 3
Faulty
3 ~w
100 300
B
x G 153 282
1
3 97 Good
97 364 542
100 300
is the information given. All other cells in the table

2 4
2 100 Faulty 300
and row/column totals can be worked out
3

y w ~w
98 196 B 211 49 260
100 Good 300
G 153 129 282
3 4 7 364 178 542
a) P(faulty) = + =
300 300 300
4 260 130 49
a) P(B) = = b) P(B ∩ ~w) =
300 4 542 271 542
b) P( y| faulty) = =
7 7 49 153
300 c) P{~w|B} = d) P{G|w} =
260 364
3. Student A 25 7
Homework 5. a) b)
173 25
0.6
6. 1
L
1
4 24

B
0.4 1 3 3
~L
No homework 6 4 24
1 1
L
Student B 1 5 15
3
Homework 0.72 T
0.9 1 4 4
~L
2 5 15

Diary 1 1
10 L
20
0.8
0.1 C
No homework 0.08
9 9
~L
Homework 0.1 10 20
0.5
0.2 1 1 1 19
No diary P(late) = + + =
24 15 20 120

0.5
No homework 0.1

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 3
7. 0.02 A 0.004 2. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

x
  ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.82 = 0.28
0.98 ~A 0.196 = P(A) × P(B)
0.2
so A, B independent.
0.05 A 0.035
0.7 3. P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A) × P(A) = 0.5 × 0.6 = 0.3
y
But P(B) = 1 − P(B ′) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
0.95 ~A 0.665
so P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ⇒ A′ and B are mutually
0.1
exclusive.
0.09 A 0.009

z 4. a) P(X|Y ) = P(X ) = 0.4 (independence)

0.91 ~A 0.091 P(Y|X ) = P(Y ) = 0.5 (independence)
b)

a) 0.035 P(X ′ ) = 0.6

c)
b) 0.004 + 0.035 + 0.009 = 0.048 P(X ′ ∩ Y ) = 0.6 × 0.5 = 0.3.
0.035 35 59 100 59
c) P(Y|A) = = = 0.729 5. a) i) ii) iii)
0.048 48 208 208 124

8. 8
R 84
12 S H
14
3 S 65 59 124
12
6 R B 27 22 49
12 6 B 9
14 84 O 16 19 35
A 108 100 208
6 9
1 6 R
14 84
2 12 B 3 P(hatchback) ≠ P(hatchback|silver)
b)
12
so type of car not independent
8 B 12
14 84 6. Outcomes for each event are the key
10 20
14
R
84 A = {(1, 1)} B = {(any, 2), (any, 4), (any, 6)}
4
1 8 12 C = {all except (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5)}
R
2 12 4 B 8 D = {(any, 3), (any, 6)}
14 84
B
F = {(5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
8 8
4 14
R
84

E can be checked against these – Too many to
12
B 2 write easily.
12
6 B 6 a) A, B are mutually exclusive and not exhaustive
14 84
b) A, D are mutually exclusive and not exhaustive
6 8 14 7
a) P(R) = + == c) C, E are not exhaustive and not mutually
24 24 24 12
exclusive
12 12 20 6 50 25
b) i) P(same colour) = + + + = = d) C, F > 9 and <10 are both mutually exclusive
84 84 84 84 84 42
and exhaustive – see lists
12 12
+ e) B, D not mutually exclusive (2, 6) in both and
24 12
ii) P(A|same colour) = 84 84= = not exhaustive (1, 5 in neither)
50 50 25
84 A, E mutually exclusive – if total = 2 it can’t be
f) 
>9, but total can be 3 or 4 so not exhaustive
Exercise 4.5 7. a) Yes – if you have 0 heads you don’t have at
1. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0.7 × 0.4 = 0.28 least one
b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) b) Yes – If you don’t have 0 haves then you have at
least one
= 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.28 = 0.82
c) Yes – If you don’t have at least one head you
c) P(A′∩ B) = 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.12
must have 4 tails – which satisfies D
d) 2 heads and 2 tails satisfies both A′,C′ so not
mutually exclusive

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 4
Summary exercise 4 1
P (A ∩ B ) 6= 1
1. a) 7 56
ii) P(A|B) = =
Purple P( B ) 2 4
9 90
3
Purple 1
8
2 16 P(A ∩ B ) 6 2
10
9 Pink 90 iii) P(B|A) = = =
P( A ) 5 5
12
8 Purple 16
2
9 90
10 1
Pink b) i) No P(A ∩ B) = ≠0
6
1
Pink
2 ii) No P(B | A) ≠ P(B) or P(A | B) ≠ P(A)
9 90
5. a) 1
R 1
4 12
56 16 72 8
P(purple) =
b) + = =
90 90 90 10 2
3
R ()1
3
1
56 3
W 4
4
56 7
P(both purple|2nd purple) = 90
c) = = E
72 72 9 2
R 1
3 9
90 1
1
2
3 W ( 16 )
2. 0.98
Pos 0.00098 D+ 1
W 18
1
3

D 1
R 1
0.001 0.02
4 32
Neg 0.00002 D–
1 1
4
R ( 18 )
2 3
3
W 32
4
H
0.002 Pos 0.001998 ~D+
2
0.999 R 1
3
~D 3 4
4 W ( 38 )
0.998 Neg 0.997002 ~D– 1 1
W 8
3

P(P ) = 0.00098 + 0.001998 = 0.002978

a) 1 1 11
P(R, R) =
b) + =
0.001998 12 32 96
P(~D|P ) =
b) = 0.671 1
0.002978
32 3
c) since two thirds of the positive results are from c) P(1st hard| R, R) = =
11 11
those who do not have the disease she could 96
argue that telling patients that they want to run 6. 0.04 D 0.01
more tests would be better
x
3. a) Mutually exclusive means if B happens A can 0.96 ~D 0.24
not happen ⇒ P(A|B) = 0 0.25
1 1 5
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) =
b) + =
2 3 6 0.05 D 0.0225

c) No – if they are mutually exclusive they are not 0.45

y
independent (unless one is certain and the other 0.95 ~D 0.4275
impossible). 0.3

4. a) i) P(A ∩ B ′) + P(A′ ∩ B′) = P(B ′) D 0.006

0.02
1 1
 ⇒ P(A ∩ B ′) + = z
12 3
1 1 1 0.98 ~D 0.294
 ⇒ P(A ∩ B ′) = − =
3 12 4
b) i) 0.4275
ii) 0.24 + 0.4275 + 0.294 = 0.9615
P(Y ∩ ~ D ) 0.4275
c) P(Y | ~ D) = = = 0.445
P(~D ) 0.9615

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 5
7. P(F ) = 0.6 P(S ) = 0.4 P(F ∩ S) = 0.35 12. P(H ∪ B) = P(H) + P(B) − P(H ∩ B)
⇒ P(F ∪ S) = 0.65 ( = 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.35) (with at = 0.6 + 0.3 − 0.1 = 0.8
least one) a) P(neither) = 0.2
a) P(not win either) = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35 b) P(only H) = 0.5 P(only B) = 0.2
b) P(F ∩ S) = 0.35 ≠ P(F ) × P(S ) = 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24 0.5 5
P(H| only one) = =
c) sportsmen and women have good spells of form 0.5 + 0.2 7
(and bad) where they play well (or badly) for
periods. 13. i) P(attend) = 0.5+ 0.5 × 0.7 = 0.85
1 1 1
8. a) P(A ∩ B) = × = 0.35
2 3 6 ii) P(voicemail | attend) = = 0.41 (2 d.p.)
0.85
1 2 1
b) P(A ′ ∩ B ′) = × =[ A ′, B ′ also independent] 14. To score 6, Jamie can toss a head and both dice show
2 3 3
1 2 2 1
1 3 (probability = × × = ), or if he tosses a tail,
c) P(A | B) = P(A) = [definition of independence] 3 6 6 27
2 he needs to have a 2 and a 3 on the dice (probability =
9. Zero – largest score possible is 12 2 1 2 2
× 2 × × = ).
10. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P (B) − P(A ∪ B) 3 6 6 27
1
= 0.3 + 0.4 − 0.65 1
= 0.05 So P ( H |6 ) = 27 = .
1 2 3
P( A ∩ B ) 0.05 +
b) P(A | B) = = = 0.125 27 27
P( B ) 0.4
725
c) P(A ∪ C) = P(A) + P(C ) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8 15. i) P(M) = = 0.465
1559
11. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) 345
ii) P(M and Y) = = 0.221
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A) × P(B) 1559
b) let x = P(Anji goes) y = P(katrina goes) 345
iii) P(M | Y ) = = 0.488 ≠ P( M ) so M and Y are
1 5 707
 ⇒ xy = and = x + y − xy not independent events.
3 6
7 1
⇒ = x + y ⇒ 7 = 6x + 6y ⇒ x = 362
6 3y iv)  P(F | Y ) = = 0.512 [= 1 – P(M | Y )]
707
6
⇒7= + 6y ⇒ 7y = 2 + 6y2
3y
16. i) 25–30
7y = 2 + 6y2
ii) 2.6 × 5 = 13
⇒ 6y2 − 7y + 2 = 0
⇒ (3y − 2) (2y − 1) = 0 iii) 8 + 13 + 22 + 21 + 18 = 72
2 1 13
⇒ y = or iv) P(20–25 | not over 25) = = 0.62
3 2 21
1 1 2
If y = 2 , x = ; if y = , x =
3 2 2 3
2
so P(Anji goes) is either 1 or .
2 3

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 6